Hearted Youtube comments on Neil McCoy-Ward (@NeilMcCoyWard) channel.
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"Civilisation Is Running Towards A GLOBAL COLLAPSE! "
I'm sixty six years old now, and reluctantly have to agree that Western Society/Civilisation is rapidly approaching total societal collapse.
Why do I say this ?
Because as the years have passed, I've seen society ever more obviously falling apart around me.
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I was born in London in 1955, and as a small boy (4-6yrs?) I was able to walk alone to my friend's houses, the local playground etc …. without any risk of abduction, sexual abuse etc ….
Is that possible today ???
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As a child (8-15yrs?), none of the local shops had surveillance cameras, but suffered very little shop-lifting. Today they bristle with 'security' equipment; but are constantly being robbed.
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Until I was at least thirty, we all trusted/respected the local Police Officers, most of whom lived within the communities they policed. Today I don't know anyone who has any respect whatever for today's 'Police' Force; largely because they no longer investigate the crimes affecting ordinary people (mugging, drugs gangs, rape, grooming gangs etc … ), but are utterly merciless when it comes to enforcing the petty traffic regulations which raise the fines that pay their wages.
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For some 50+years I've heard politicians bleating on about "raising living standards", but back in 1979 it took me just three months wages to raise the 10% deposit I needed to get a mortgage on my first house. One of my sons recently spent more than three years saving up £30,000+ as a deposit for a similar home; only for the Estate Agent to laugh at him and tell him to come back when he'd got £45,000 !!!
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It's the same story with everything from education, through crime, immigration, employment and or even claiming Welfare. The State has grown like a tape-worm in the Nation's belly, charges huge sums in order to 'permit' anything, clearly begrudges giving even the most meagre sums to the working British taxpayer; whilst it's 'politically correct' bureaucracy determinedly ignores the mugging, rape, drug-trafficking, grooming-gangs and even murders; being committed within a few hundred yards of their heavily protected Offices.
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I am a pilot with just over 800 hours. I was very cautious for the first 200 hours, around 300 hours I started flying the canyons of the four corners area below rim level. By the time I hit 500 hours, I was basically the greatest pilot on the entire planet. That is when I had my first "Oh Shit!" moment.
I dropped down into a valley and was flying the tops of the sage brush when out of nowhere a powerline appeared, from my perspective I cleared the lines by inches. My instructor (who had 30,000 hours plus) had warned me that it was going to happen between 200 and 500 hours, and if I survived it, I might make a decent pilot someday.
This woman had her "Oh Shit!" moment, she did not survive it, simple like that. I will say this, I am at 800 hours now, and I would not go near that airspace, in the daytime.
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jimmie200
I'm worried about the banks. I knew an elderly man ten years ago who grew up during the Great Depression. He told me that his family has a small farm; chickens, a few pigs, a substantial garden that they lived off of. Once a year after they would butcher pigs, they sold the meat, then kept the breeding pigs. His mom would take the money they made to the bank and deposit it for the items they could not make, like flour, salt, clothes, etc. There were rumors going around that the banks were going to close. His mom gathered their yearly deposit and went into the bank. She spoke to the president of the bank, telling him of her concerns of the bank closing. He assured her they were solvent and that she was hearing rumors. She deposited the money. Two days later, the bank closed, just locked the door. The Depression started. No one could get any of their money out of the bank. One year later she got her money back, but she got pennies on the dollar. It was almost nothing. He said if they didn't have their garden, the chickens and pigs for meat, they would have starved to death. He said people did starve to death. This is what concerns me, the banks. They aren't going to tell us.
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A guess to where your going ;) I 1st thought the Isle of Man, lived there for 3 years and with their low tax I saved enough to buy a house. But, it's now got issues being outside the EU and being a dependency of the UK, so my next best guess is IRELAND. It's not far from the UK, similar but different, has favorable tax rate for business, is an island, has what your looking for in community (especially anywhere outside a city like Dublin - Dublin basically being west London), it's safe, politically stable, has excellent global air/sea connections and militarily neutral. Climate is also perfect for growing your own food, and the list goes on. I made that move to Ireland myself after many years in UK/Europe/Isle of Man, and no regrets ;) If your coming here I'll buy you a Guinness as a welcome, you can buy me a whiskey if my guess is right ;)
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There are 500 troy ounces per monster box, Neil bought tens of thousands of ounces, which means he would have purchased at least 20 monster boxes, which equates to 10,000 ounces, at a value of roughly $180,000. Neil's Apmex purchase order shows a monster box purchase with a spot price of $15.33 for a total of $8,960, meaning the premium per ounce (coin) was $2.59. It also shows a delivery date of July 15, 2019. From his comments below, (4 days ago) if he sold today he would double his money. With silver trading at around $24/oz in that time frame, in order to double his money premiums would have to be nearly $12/oz. Wow, Neil has kicked a goal on this investment so far, whether you call it football or soccer. Well done.
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What on earth could ANYONE possibly find offensive about this video? It's just good solid reporting based on logic and careful research. As a paying YouTube user, I am shocked that YouTube would censor this. The images of cataclysmic events are historical, reminding us that there is always a "Black Swan Event" that we cannot predict -- basic economic reality. Neil did not invent the term "The Great Reset." That was coined by Davos, an elite group of corporate interests that meet routinely and try to shape international fiscal policy. He is just explaining who they are and what that means. Again, basic reporting and analysis, quite mainstream. Did the censors think he was proposing a digital currency because of the impending collapse of fiat currencies? Of course, he isn't. He's just explaining based on current trends how that might come about. Digital currencies already exist. What role will they play going forward? You can find lots of videos on that subject that haven't been censored. What I like about Neil's reporting is that he is not blind to the obvious. Whenever a collapse is imminent, there is always a flood of positive B.S. about the sector that's affected. When the housing market was collapsing in 2008, there were more stories about what a good investment residential real estate was than how risky. Same with the oil industry in 2014. Look up commercial real estate now, and you'll see the same thing, a bunch of hype about how great things are, interspersed with some dire warnings. Neil's video tour of London and all its vacant store fronts contradicts all of those lies quite simply and directly. There is absolutely nothing controversial about what he is discussing. It's all real and needs to be addressed.
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I just looked up interest rates in 2006, and the average 30 year fixed rate was 6.3%. Using the FRED average home value of $184,000 in 2006, the total amount financed over 30 years for P&I is $410,008, monthly payment of $1,139 (P&I only). Fast forward to today and the average home of $300,000 at a 2.75%, 30 year fixed rate mortgage is $1,225 per month with the total mortgage costing $440,900. Very little difference in the monthly payment. It is allowing millennials to get into the market, and boomers and seniors that relied on interest income are moving to the stock market for returns. The problem will occur when mortgage rates go back to 6-8% most likely in 5-8 years from now. Now if the people who are buying today want to sell in 2026, the same $300,000 mortgage now costs $1,896 (again only P&I). With property taxes going up, and escalating insurance premiums to offset the losses from the riots, that house may cost a new buyer $2,200 or more. That does not include any appreciation for the seller. The millennials buying these homes today will be handcuffed to that house, or become a landlord if their HOA will allow such. It feels like we are in 2006 all over again, and in the next 4-6 years there will be millions of short sales and foreclosures on the market. It won't happen overnight, again this problem is four to six years from now, but in my opinion it is coming.
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@Neil McCoy-Ward You are saying you are starting a garden on your small croft, but you are walking through miles of fertile semi-domesticated wilds! Pick a route and take a small lunch-basket with you containing potatoes that are starting to spud, garlick and onions that are starting to sprout, strawberry seeds, different kinds of mint; and plant them in likely places! Potatoes do very well growing with sunlight filtered between trees, and tend not to spread as they are a root vegetable. Squash likes a bit more sun, but does very well hidden in tall grass, and all you have to do to start it is drop one or two that are going off in the grass in a location that gets a good bit of water run-off nearby! Strawberries love thickets, and are simply a wild crop that humans happen to farm.
Onions shouldn't be planted near potatoes, as they both inhibit the other's growth through enzymes they release. Garlic and onions both will grow wild, nearly anywhere, including in your yard, where they add fragrance when you cut the grass. Keep them away from foundations, though, I've been told.
Sprout some beans, as from a package of 9-bean dry soup, and plant them close together, like grass, and let them grow wild just off any path. That's their natural environment. You'll increase natural forage for animals and start seeing more and healthier wildlife, while also having a "spare garden," that you can pick from at least nine months out of the year!
By the way, I see quite a variety of trees there. Do any produce edible nuts, or fruit? Can't go wrong planting a couple of apple or pear seedlings out of the way, though depending on climate (it looks sufficiently wet there), you may have to help them with a canteen of water every few days until the roots are well-set.
It's dry in my part of Texas, so olives, pecans, pears, and heirloom apples do well on their own once established.
Best of luck, and may the land rejoice in bounty!
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In terms of counting stimulus in GDP, without fraud, stimulus spent in the economy, as part of C + I + G + NI (X -I) contributes to GDP, if it is treated as Government spending. To the extent that G(stimulus) involves loans, the inclusion of stimulus in G is fraudulent. There is also flow-on effects. C and I are also impacted (stimulus supported consumption and investment or I, through house building). So, yes, stimulus is an integral part of the economic 'rebound' but it's arguable that it is terribly low quality growth.
We have interest rates driven to very low levels, economies pumped with liquidity, a resulting house price boom, while the productive economy languishes. It is quite possible, also, that NI or net exports has been 'imrproved' by fractured supply lines and greater national economic self-reliance, reducing imports, although this may well be off-set by impaired exports, so the answer seems to rely on:
1. The relationship between stimulus and how it has been accounted for.
2. The role stimulus has played in supporting G and I.
I suspect you are correct in saying that loan-based stimulus payments have been swept into GDP, although they should not be. Curiously, outright transfer payments are part of GDP. Secondly, stimulus has 'stimulated' consumption and also property and share speculation. The separate question lies in the off-set in increased debt.
C is private consumption
I is private investment
G is government expenditure
NI is net exports (exports minus imports)
The question is, whether on the books of individuals/private sector, or government, we should treat debt-induced gDP growth as the same as normal GDP growth. This will depend on how that debt was applied. High quality G, such as infrastructure spending, is less problematic that this stimulus-induced debt.
We can think about this metaphorically as the debt applied to build roads, factories VS debt applied to keep a patient on life support alive. Understandably, we add roads, bridges, factories, businesses to the national stock of capital goods. Under the current situation, we are, in effect, being asked to capitalize expenditure keeping the economy on life support as though it increased the capital stock. This seems to come with some risks as what this debt has bought is a deferral of pain, not its resolution.
If you start drinking again early enough into a hangover, it is possible to alter the timing of that hangover but as history has taught me, delirium tremens, accompanied by hallucinations, is made more likely on the day of reckoning.
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Zenith Climber: Your comment is BS! First off, happiness is a fleeting emotion, but joy is constant despite the circumstances. Secondly, to criticize a man for serving his Country, to keep losers like you safe and happy, is BS. What have you done with your life to serve others? He selflessly, and willing put his life on the line to serve, protect, and defend others? Lastly, you don't know that he actually killed anyone while serving in the military, more BS from a pathetic loser! Why did you actually watch his video, anyway? Obviously, you were curious to learn ways to become wealthy starting with no money, so you must be broke, or living paycheck to paycheck! And you criticize a man who has done it! You will never be wealthy, for you lack the proper attitude to succeed!
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Neil, With San Diego example, you correctly pointed out people living in expensive areas tend to fund their schools more leading to better K-12 education. So, in the end it pays to make money and live wisely. However, California politicians, especially Univ of Calif system, have dictatorily decided to level the field for college entrance by giving preferences for applicants from low-income, rural and/or less competitive school districts over other applicants having better grades but with higher family-income. So, examples over examples show a 4.5GPA + better SAT scores + activities student loses out to a 4.0GPA student who comes from less competitive area or even to one from low-income family of the same high school. Many with higher-income decided to go out of state after not getting into desired UC. UCs pefer full-fee foreign students. Certain majority ethnic group also tried to enact a law that would have required each UC to admit percentage of students, aka "racial quota", based on racial mix of the state of Calif. For now, the quota system mandate has been defeated. Remember, both Fed govt and states have many financial-aid programs that allow a willing and capable student to get college education. Now. Calif politicians are trying to penalize kids even in getting admission in UC if parents have money. Don't forget, ironically, the UCs are funded by the same high-income Calif parents' taxes.
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Stag: People who disagree with the Horse on: Politics, Policies, Issues, Education, Monetary Policies, Climate Change, Race, Sex, Gender, etc.
Horse: People who want government to force others to do the will of the Horse.
Hunter: New World Order, Luciferian, Pea Dough Files in government who are owned & controlled by the Central Bankers.
There. Maybe a normie who is still asleep will read this post & wake up :)
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Neil, I have been listening to you for over a year and I hear all you are saying about the economy, housing, restrictions, shortages, pingdemic, pandemic, travel issues, financial issues, investments, mandates etc and for the first time it hit me today that all you have been saying is actually happening! I live in Saint Johns Florida and I was never able to tell or share any of your forecasts wi thy any one because our town hasn’t really been hit with any of this but this evening I went to Lowe’s to look for new appliances for our home and we were told to look around and pick what we wanted let the sales clerk know so we could get a date of delivery etc.. I was shocked that 90% of the refrigerators, 95% of the stove and microwaves were not available for purchase because they just did not have them in their warehouses when we asked the sales clerk to explained: he told us they have these items in the system but have no idea when they will be getting re stocked therefore they can’t even sell them to us with a back order or give us a rain check on the prices listed. I mentioned that I had been there with a family member just last year and she was able to order and pay with back order for delivery and ask why we couldn’t do this.. he told me he had no idea, he said as of last month they were told they could not sell anything that was not currently in the ware house and could not offer a rain check on anything or promise date of when they would be available because they just didn’t know. I was beside my self in the end after spending a few hours back and forth with the sales clerk just for him to tell us all we were interested in was just not available for sale we left he suggested to go on the website and order on line and wished us luck! We will try that tomorrow but the clerk did not sounded very confident. We purchase our 2300 sf home for $255,000 way back during the last housing bubble in 2007 but out house went up in price with in the last year and with no upgrades, no new roof or paint , or some needed repairs it can now list for $320,000. On its lowest offer and $450,000. If we got it new floors , paint, new windows etc We owe the bank 190.000 and we pay $1,500. A month which we thought was a lot back in 2007 now to rent this same property down the street they want $2,700. So we can’t sell it would be crazy for us but thanks to your forecasts , to listening to your advice and your constant reporting and warnings we we have been able to get out of debt and save and we might just ride it out here. We live in a cozy home with wonderful patriotic neighbors great schools and so far awesome Governor and weather! You and your family should check this place out and move here we have the number #1 school in Florida and awesome community ... just bring your own appliances 😂 have a wonderful week
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What I love about this analysis compared to nearly every other YouTuber commenting on the housing market is you talk in depth about first-time buyers and people buying homes to actually live in. Nearly every other UK channel I found almost exclusively speaks from the (somewhat biased) perspective of property developers and landlords.
One particular thing gets mentioned is the stamp duty holiday as if that's really great for first time buyers, when objectively it's not because the vast majority are exempt - it actually only gives the same exception they already had to all buyers.
The other major issue in the UK is the rising price of minimum deposits - previously I could have got a mortgage on a £150k home in the North of England for a 5% deposit or £7500. I will probs have that saved up by the end of the year. Now minimum deposit is at LEAST 10%, so that's £15,000 I have to save. Do-able, but will take me till well into next year and I suspect many potential buyers who just started saving are now delaying their plans purely because of this.
A crash still benefits me because even if deposits rise to 15%, if say we had a huge 20% crash then despite needing an extra £3k on that £150k house once it drops to £120k, I could drop the mortgage term from 25 to 20yrs, pay £100 less per month and overall save about £52k once interest is accounted for.
Ideally though the government would extend their equity loan scheme to all properties, not just new builds. That might slightly increase prices (or slightly recover them if there's a crash), but the benefits for first time buyers would massively outweigh the costs. Right now it's just new builds, which are both expensive, and shite.
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Aesop was a Greek who lived 27 centuries ago and wrote the following emphasizing the wisdom of putting aside food during times when it was plentiful to feed yourself when times became lean. Neil is providing us with wise advice that has served humankind for centuries:- The Grasshopper and the Ants
In a field one summer's day a grasshopper was hopping about, chirping and singing to its heart's content. A group of ants walked by, grunting as they struggled to carry plump kernels of corn.
"Where are you going with those heavy things?" asked the grasshopper.
Without stopping, the first ant replied, "To our ant hill. This is the third kernel I've delivered today."
"Why not come and sing with me," teased the grasshopper, "instead of working so hard?"
"We are helping to store food for the winter," said the ant, "and think you should do the same."
"Winter is far away and it is a glorious day to play," sang the grasshopper.
But the ants went on their way and continued their hard work.
The weather soon turned cold. All the food lying in the field was covered with a thick white blanket of snow that even the grasshopper could not dig through. Soon the grasshopper found itself dying of hunger.
He staggered to the ants' hill and saw them handing out corn from the stores they had collected in the summer. He begged them for something to eat.
"What!" cried the ants in surprise, "haven't you stored anything away for the winter? What in the world were you doing all last summer?"
"I didn't have time to store any food," complained the grasshopper; "I was so busy playing music that before I knew it the summer was gone."
The ants shook their heads in disgust, turned their backs on the grasshopper and went on with their work.
Remember -- there is a time for work and a time for play!
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Hi Neil, I wanted to throw this into the mix.
Money has been devalued as a result of QE. I look around me and people have made, and are making, crazy money either on the markets or through their businesses. It's highly unusual but this is what happens in a world of rediculous money printing. Everyone is a genius and zombie companies thrive.
All this extra money is creating demand for goods, pushing up inflation. Property prices have gone up as a function of this, too. Here's the catch though: I don't think they will necessarily go down soon. Money printing reduces credit risk and has basically moved the goal posts - a 100k property in 2019 should in theory now be worth 140k just to be the same value today because the value of money has declined.
In April, at least in the UK, people start getting pay rises. Historically, when inflation bites hard, there is a risk of wage spiral, too, which will exacerbate the situation and cause further demand on property.
So I think the hypothesis that we are guaranteed a property crash any time soon might be misplaced, especially if central banks keep holding out in tightening supply. If rates go up, sure, but otherwise money printing may have pushed out a property recession several years from now.
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South West, Western Australia....we bought 50 acres 18 months ago, winter river, secluded location, 2 freshwater springs all year, dam, fish, marron, sheep, cattle, goats.....some pigs and chickens to come. Grid connected, multiple generators, bore water, 200k litres of rainwater storage. Fertiliser is around $1600 per tonne now and one could only imagine the input costs for broadacre farming would be escalating rapidly. The average person lives with their head firmly stuck up their backside and has no idea what's coming in the next year or two. Even eggs are hard to get and are rationed at $7-8 per dozen but these people will probably start to complain about their smashed avocado and poached eggs costing $25-30 soon. I feel sorry for the younger generation that believe their life lives inside a phone app and having recently browsed some Instagram.....wow what vacuous crap for the most part. Let's hope the TT still stays in existence for the Isle of Mann.
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DAMAGE-CAUSED-BY-BATTERIES
(Copied)
This is an excellent breakdown.
Batteries, do not make electricity – they store electricity produced elsewhere, primarily by coal, uranium, natural gas-powered plants, or diesel-fueled generators. So, to say an EV is a zero-emission vehicle is not at all valid.
Also, since forty percent of the electricity generated in the U.S. is from coal-fired plants, it follows that forty percent of the EVs on the road are coal-powered, do you see?"
Einstein's formula, E=MC2, tells us it takes the same amount of energy to move a five-thousand-pound gasoline-driven automobile a mile as it does an electric one. The only question again is what produces the power? To reiterate, it does not come from the battery; the battery is only the storage device, like a gas tank in a car.
There are two orders of batteries, rechargeable, and single-use. The most common single-use batteries are A, AA, AAA, C, D. 9V, and lantern types. Those dry-cell species use zinc, manganese, lithium, silver oxide, or zinc and carbon to store electricity chemically. Please note they all contain toxic, heavy metals.
Rechargeable batteries only differ in their internal materials, usually lithium-ion, nickel-metal oxide, and nickel-cadmium. The United States uses three billion of these two battery types a year, and most are not recycled; they end up in landfills. California is the only state which requires all batteries to be recycled. If you throw your small, used batteries in the trash, here is what happens to them.
All batteries are self-discharging. That means even when not in use, they leak tiny amounts of energy. You have likely ruined a flashlight or two from an old, ruptured battery. When a battery runs down and can no longer power a toy or light, you think of it as dead; well, it is not. It continues to leak small amounts of electricity. As the chemicals inside it run out, pressure builds inside the battery's metal casing, and eventually, it cracks. The metals left inside then ooze out. The ooze in your ruined flashlight is toxic, and so is the ooze that will inevitably leak from every battery in a landfill. All batteries eventually rupture; it just takes rechargeable batteries longer to end up in the landfill.
In addition to dry cell batteries, there are also wet cell ones used in automobiles, boats, and motorcycles. The good thing about those is, ninety percent of them are recycled. Unfortunately, we do not yet know how to recycle single-use ones properly.
But that is not half of it. For those of you excited about electric cars and a green revolution, I want you to take a closer look at batteries and also windmills, and solar panels. These three technologies share what we call environmentally destructive production costs.
A typical EV battery weighs one thousand pounds, about the size of a travel trunk. It contains twenty-five pounds of lithium, sixty pounds of nickel, 44 pounds of manganese, 30 pounds cobalt, 200 pounds of copper, and 400 pounds of aluminum, steel, and plastic. Inside are over 6,000 individual lithium-ion cells.
It should concern you that all those toxic components come from mining. For instance, to manufacture each EV auto battery, you must process 25,000 pounds of brine for the lithium, 30,000 pounds of ore for the cobalt, 5,000 pounds of ore for the nickel, and 25,000 pounds of ore for copper. All told, you dig up 500,000 pounds of the earth's crust for just - one - battery."
Sixty-eight percent of the world's cobalt, a significant part of a battery, comes from the Congo. Their mines have no pollution controls, and they employ children who die from handling this toxic material. Should we factor in these diseased kids as part of the cost of driving an electric car?"
I'd like to leave you with these thoughts. California is building the largest battery in the world near San Francisco, and they intend to power it from solar panels and windmills. They claim this is the ultimate in being 'green,' but it is not. This construction project is creating an environmental disaster. Let me tell you why.
The main problem with solar arrays is the chemicals needed to process silicate into the silicon used in the panels. To make pure enough silicon requires processing it with hydrochloric acid, sulfuric acid, nitric acid, hydrogen fluoride, trichloroethane, and acetone. In addition, they also need gallium, arsenide, copper-indium-gallium- diselenide, and cadmium-telluride, which also are highly toxic. Silicon dust is a hazard to the workers, and the panels cannot be recycled.
Windmills are the ultimate in embedded costs and environmental destruction. Each weighs 1688 tons (the equivalent of 23 houses) and contains 1300 tons of concrete, 295 tons of steel, 48 tons of iron, 24 tons of fiberglass, and the hard to extract rare earths neodymium, praseodymium, and dysprosium. Each blade weighs 81,000 pounds and will last 15 to 20 years, at which time it must be replaced. We cannot recycle used blades.
There may be a place for these technologies, but you must look beyond the myth of zero emissions.
"Going Green" may sound like the Utopian ideal but when you look at the hidden and embedded costs realistically with an open mind, you can see that Going Green is more destructive to the Earth's environment than meets the eye, for sure.
Obviously copied/pasted. I encourage you to pass it along too.
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WHY are homes less affordable in Canada, USA, UK, Canada etc.... Simple answer is because money printing has eroded the value of the currency with asset prices rising faster than wages. If you price homes in a store of value like gold, not that much has changed. My parents bought their house in Toronto in 1978 for CAD$ 79,000, which equated to about 540 oz of gold. By 2015 those 540oz of gold were worth $810,000, in 2021 those oz are worth $1,296,000. The fact they could sell their home for around $1,500,000, means the home has increased by 85 oz gold, or 16% measured in gold in 43 YEARS. What happened to salaries during that time. I'm a CPA. Salaries for CPAs (senior managers and junior partners) in 1979 were approximately $50-60K, which increased to $150-180K today. So while the home prices increased 1800%, salaries at higher tax income tax rates increased 300%. Any questions? My parents still live in the same house. Growing up in 1979, the doctors, lawyers, CPAs, business owners, etc. lived in other neighborhoods where homes cost $150-200K . Now those same professionals have mortgages to live in a home that blue collar families with one income lived in 40 years ago.
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Now I feel horrible Neil, all I have is hen house providing nearly a dozen eggs per day, 3 freezers packed full of frozen foods, 5 acres of paid off rural Florida land with a solar powered well and free air conditioning (about 7000 total watts of free solar power on a sunny day), a woodstove and plenty of free firewood for heat, just in case we ever need it, about 260 fruit trees, everything from bananas, plumbs, pears, apples, oranges, figs, mulberries, limes, lemons, grapefruit, pecans and peaches to about 10 berry vines with lost of grapes, blueberries, blackberries and raspberries, but I hate to admit I'm kind of lacking on the beans, rice, canned tuna and sardines, now I need to go buy those to be really prepped, thanks Neil!
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Interesting you mentioned Argentina. I'm currently in Uruguay, Argentina's next neighboring country. When Argentina was one of the wealthiest countries in the world, Uruguay wasn't far behind, if at all. In fact, at one point in time, Uruguay was more wealthy than Germany and Switzerland thanks to its massive demand for exports. Although Uruguay is in much better shape than Argentina, it's not like it used to be.
When you look at the architecture of the city, you get a glimpse of the opulent past this country had. Lots of beautiful art-deco designed buildings. They look like something out of a futuristic sci-fi movie and you can't help, but stare at them wondering what happened to their economy. Now many of them look deteriorated, and in need of maintenance.
But it's all right there in your face, as if they are screaming telling you of a past where their people enjoyed financial prosperity, and were at the top economically. Then in a short amount of time, bam! All disappeared, but the walls of these fancy buildings.
So yeah, I absolutely agree with you. We're witnessing the same thing in the US.
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Neil, I have spent a lot of time in Cov and I have also just had the FLU for two weeks so we really are like twins. I am interested to hear to where you are moving to, I sincerely hope it's not "Land of the FEE and home of the SLAVE". I left LOTF two years ago, I value Freedom over FreeDUMB. Regarding the markets I see Pimp Powell may start whipping his ho's and removing their drugs but at the first sight of the stock-market or housing markets quivering he will be straight back in there replenishing their crack! The US only has two things going for it now and that's the stock-market and housing market, once they go they are knackered. The jobs numbers/unemployment numbers are being manipulated more than the front of my lads trousers when I took him to his first strip club! CPI, PPI, GDP, it's all unicorns, pixie dust and cock-custard mate. Keep up the good work, glad to hear you got over the FLU*, I've had a lot of *FLU this year and I'm expecting to get another lot of FLU soon as there is a lot of FLU going around!
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Some commentary on this video:
1 – Stock Buybacks
I agree on your assessment regarding company stock buybacks:
Company share buybacks are undesirable because that money is not going into useful expenditures like R&D, product/service improvements, dividends to shareholders, paying off debt, etc. (In some cases it's actually increasing long-term debt for the company due to the sale of bonds to finance the buybacks.)
However, understand that no one on Wall St. is “fooled” by the simple arithmetic of reducing outstanding shares in order to calculate a “better” EPS. Everyone knows that buying back shares in and of itself results in no tangible gain or loss.
In theory, a company (in “normal” times) may want to buy back their shares to increase the ownership stake of the principle share holders. In fact though, many companies do it merely for “appearances” - i.e., to try to make certain company metrics “look good”.
Some say that buybacks are a way to return cash to shareholders. My feeling is that if that's a company's intention, the best way to do that is with a healthy dividend payment. Some principles would rather “pay” with shares, because a dividend is REAL MONEY!
2 – Interest Rates and debt:
a – why assume that rates will rise? You have to consider WHAT rates you're talking about …. eg, Fed Funds rate (controlled by the Fed), 10, 20, 30 year bonds, mortgage rates (tied to short term rates), etc.
Your assertion : The Government Doesn't Make Money.
On the contrary, the government DOES “make money” ….. trillions of dollars of it. They print more “money” and finance it with treasuries. Actual individual and corporate taxes don't put a dent in it, because the government has to keep on issuing more treasury bonds to pay for existing debt coming due. It's like if you financed your monthly mortgage payment by borrowing from some other lender to make your payment. Of course, YOU couldn't keep that up for long or you'd hit the inevitable wall and would have to file bankruptcy. The government hasn't hit that wall because they can simply “create” new money, in the Fed's case, by adding the “proceeds” of bonds that the treasury sells to their “assets”.
So, when you say that big companies are “bailed out” by the tax payer, they're not really receiving tax money directly. We say that the taxpayer is on the hook for the Federal Debt, but actually the Fed will just keep running this never-ending “new money” cycle to keep the game going, because without the game, it all breaks down VERY fast. That's what happened in September 2008 …. the overnight cash just stopped flowing, and the game suddenly stopped. Only another crisis like that will STOP the game. Other factors can slowly over time tear our system down, but it will be more slowly.
3 – Stock Market “going up”
Your description of current market conditions is partially inaccurate and inconclusive. Explanation: The NASDAQ and the S&P indexes are heavily weighted toward a very small handful of tech/retail stocks – primarily Apple, Facebook, Amazon, Alplabet, Netflix. Each of these mega companies are NOT losing profitability, rather they are gaining. Remove these stocks and the actual indexes are up only marginally. Hence, the “whole market” is actually not up nearly as much as these indexes let on. Further, the DOW Jones is made up of 30 stocks that are all large-cap, and generally do much better than lower cap/growth stocks. The Indexes are skewed to the upside because so much low-cost money has been pouring into these mega stocks. This gives the appearance that the whole market gained more than it has. The COVID pandemic has further skewed the markets for a variety of reasons, and among other things, has pushed a lot of money into stocks such as Zoom and others that can benefit from the current situation. You say that some companies are taking “historic losses”. This is true, such as the airlines, entertainment, casinos, heavy equipment, etc. However, their stocks have NOT been going up … they've in fact crashed hugely.
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