Hearted Youtube comments on The Plain Bagel (@ThePlainBagel) channel.
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Hey Plain Bagel squad! Yes, unfortunately it's happening to all of us, and the frustrating thing is that in a lot of cases each individual comment is actually a different account. We as creators have an option to "hide user from channel", but in instances like these we have to manually block 40 different accounts all called the same thing, every day. It's like each day we wake up, do our stretches, eat some breakfast, answer our emails, and block the fresh batch of fake accounts that are destroying out comments. It's beyond ridiculous and the worst thing is it takes time away from us that we'd otherwise be using to make content.
...also, come on YouTube. Lift your game. What they should do is note when a channel is commenting on your videos that has the same channel name as yours and automatically flag all their comments. I'm sure this wouldnt be that hard.
Anyway, thanks for the vid Richard, and thanks for drawing attention to what's going on.
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I'm watching this channel along with Ben Felix and a few others, while going on a financial self-study rampage in real estate, trading, budgeting, etc. Channels like these are great and even better when you combine this with excellent life and learning habits, going to forums, reading like crazy and taking notes, writing out and drawing out your own ideas obsessively, coming up with plans vetted by peers in those fields, and the executing on a regular and consistent basis. Wash Rinse Repeat. To hell with distractions. Finance is so much fun, and this channel is fucking awesome.
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As a fan of crypto and defi, I really appreciated hearing a fair, measured critique of the space by someone who actually took the time to research and understand it well enough to come up with an informed opinion about it. I'm still bullish on it, to the point where I think that the Defi replacing our traditional banking system is basically inevitable, in the long term (i.e., I'd be shocked if this hasn't happened 30-40 years from now, but I'm not some hype investor who's naive enough to expect Defi to completely collapse the current banking system next month). As you correctly pointed out, it's still a very new area of technology, and has a lot of challenges to overcome. With time, I think that these challenges WILL be overcome, and the defi ecosystem will eventually be better for its end-user than the current banking system is.
The only thing from the video that I would strongly disagree with is the comparison between the electricity usage of 1 Ethereum transaction vs 100,000 Visa transactions. I wouldn't dispute the accuracy of this at all, I just think that it's a bit of a false equivalency and doesn't tell the whole story. If you compare the electricity use of Ethereum transactions to the cost of all credit card transactions + the electricity used by running every bank, mortgage lender, etc on the planet (which, in theory, would no longer be needed if the world's financial landscape was dominated by defi), I think that would give you a more accurate comparison.
On top of that, there are already other blockchain projects that use less electricity and have lower gas fees than Ethereum, and this is a brand new technology that's only going to continue improving. The first computers ever created took up the space of an entire room: now, decades later, you have a computer in your pocket with a level of processing power that people couldn't even dream of at the time the first computers were created. So while I agree that it's premature to hype up defi as if it's going to be the norm by 2023, I also think that it has an excellent chance to be successful long-term.
Anyway, thanks for the great video! Would love to see you dig into more crypto topics in the future.
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This cleared up so much for me. Maybe it’s because I just don’t know tons about investing or finance, but when I first learned about crypto, and Defi, I just had a bad gut feeling, so I never got into it, but when I tried to learn, it felt so overwhelming to try and understand. But you broke it down, gave pros and cons, and it has helped me understand a lot better. While I do get not wanting a middleman, or not having a ton of trust in not-very transparent financial institutions, crypto is so much worse, and so unstable, that it wouldn’t thrive, it’s a pump and dump web that you can barely keep track of. Some of the initial ideas behind it? I agree. The rest, and how it’s executed, and the culture around crypto? Don’t agree, don’t like, 0 stars.
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Morningstar had a very interesting paper on whether buying is a good investment titled, "The Home as a Risky Asset" by David Blanchett PhD, CFA, CFP®. As you can guess from the title, they were pretty negative about the idea, especially for those who don't itemize deductions. They conclude that, once you account for expenses, your real rate of return is around 1%. One percent! Now, that doesn't necessarily mean that renting is inherently better for your wallet. I think the actual take-away is that you should never buy more house than you need, with the expectation of selling the property later for more.
On the other hand, also remember that a home can be very hard to sell when you need to. That's both a strength (you're not tempted to cash in) and a weakness (sometimes you have no choice).
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I think it is good to do a critical analysis, and your approach seems reasonable on the surface. Here are some things to think about, however. There are a LOT of unexamined assumptions in your video. There are reasonable reasons to think that Tesla will continue to outperform the market in the coming years...
1. Tesla is expensive looking backwards but is predicted to have 25-30 EPS by 2025 and still have more runway. Those p/e multiples are coming down fast... A 30x-50x multiple in 2025 is reasonably expected since their growth story will likely continue. That means 1000-1500 TSLA in 2025 at 30-50x--if all goes as planned. Risk is, of course, real!!!
2. The competition will struggle. Mightily. The legacy auto-makers will indeed be investing billions, but they will be eating their own foot as they do so, not to mention the "story" they will have as they shed stranded assets and move capital to r&d and request bailouts. The competition is also extremely indebted, has large bureaucracies and unions, and is more dedicated to spending money on marketing than on creating great products.
3. Tesla has more cash than debt, and that ratio improves every quarter, and that improvement is accelerating.
4. Tesla announced a 7-10x reduction in battery costs, soon making BEV less expensive to buy than ICE cars, not to mention less expensive to maintain, irrespective of the cost of gas.
5. You should look at the Bloomberg customer satisfaction survey showing a ~96% customer retention rate. These are Apple-like and indicate that Tesla is not just an auto company, but a lifestyle brand that is eating its competition.
6. The Bloomberg and Deloitte research you quote is now "old." How many countries and states have since announced the ban of ICE vehicles by 2030 or 2035? Which company is best poised to capture market share in this scenario? THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND...
7. Tesla is projected to produce approximately 20 million vehicles by 2030. Tesla clears about 10k per vehicle and this will continue as software purchases for the car fuel revenue. (If Ford could charge 2k for a 2-second performance upgrade, they would.)
8. Why do car companies only have 5x ratios? Because most car companies have huge overhead, huge debt, and huge DEALER NETWORKS. Most of these companies have done little or no innovation over the years, and that is going to hurt them in the future. Tesla, even if values as a car company, has a roadmap to greater efficiency just based on its business structure.
9. I don't blame you for not looking at their other businesses (energy, autonomy, etc), but there is little doubt that those are potentially huge. If you know of another better bet in these areas, I would love to know!
10. Past stock performance should never be used to judge future stock performance (up or down!), HOWEVER, past behavior is a great indicator of future behavior. Legacy auto has shown an ability to go bankrupt, incur debt, cheat (emissions scandals), spend exorbantly on advertising for less and less market share (GM trucks), and have little to show in true innovation. Tesla has shown that is becoming more (not less) profitable, more popular, more capital efficient, more revenue diverse, more geographically diverse, and more and more efficient at production.
I know which trends I am betting on.
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I've arrived late to this video. As a major Tesla bull I look for well thought-out counter-arguments to make sure that I haven't missed anything that could be costly.
Thank you for giving your point of view. In the end, your points did not change my opinion or outlook on the stock long-term as, IMO, the initial assumptions are incorrect regarding growth, potential revenue streams etc. What I do take into consideration, what I also knew when first investing, is that there is still major risk involved with this stock as Tesla still has a lot to prove and make reality. Difference between us, I guess, is that to me that path to achieving those goals is clear and they are clearly taking the right steps to get there while competitors seem to lack what is needed, while you think this path is still 50/50 at best.
When investing in such high growth stocks, the key is to invest what you can lose as some kind of "black swan" event can always happen.
Don't stop giving you point of view, even if it's met with major criticism as I know there are a lot of Tesla investors that invested because Tesla went up majorly and can't take videos like this for what they are, an honest detailing of potential risks.
Thanks, I'm really enjoying your content and channel, keep it up.
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I thought this was a fair critique. As a creator, I've learned firsthand that there needs to be a title / thumbnail approach to pique enough curiosity for someone to learn and retain new information, otherwise - people scroll until they find something else that does. After all, if a video is titled: "Inflation Comes In Below Expectations," people have no reason to learn about a new topic - but, if it's about the Federal Reserve FLIPPING THE MARKET, there's a reason to watch, even if someone has no prior knowledge of the market. In a way, this helps people learn about the economy - even if they had no prior interest.
Your China video was a perfect example of this - you were able to appeal to a large audience, who were curious about the topic, while sharing a neutral perspective that your viewers could benefit from. Our niche is a fine balance between appealing to a large audience, and actually delivering on the content that they came to watch, while also making it entertaining enough for people to stay and learn. Finance is a really, really difficult subject for people to want to watch, unless they're already interested - so, for most people - there needs to be a reason to click, that they can relate to, and from there it's up to the creator to deliver a balanced, fair argument. Since I started in late 2016, we've definitely swung from one end of the pendulum to the other, but at the end of the day - I believe our goal is to create interest around personal finance, teach people that money doesn't have to be taboo / boring, and provide a side of entertainment as the way of delivering helpful information.
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I accidentally got carried away and basically wrote a blog post, but fuck it. Here it is! <3
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The worst part of these arguments is a lack of nuance. Hence the flame wars. The gulf between the two sides is not nearly as vast as it seems.
Most people arguing about active/passive are failing to ask the first and most important question. What is the investor trying to accomplish? They are far too busy defending their fox hole, their profession, or their fears.
Having an argument, without setting terms, is insane. But for some damned reason, in finance, it's not just normal, but widely accepted as rational.
For the record, I am ardently a passive investor both personally and professionally. I am also an entrepreneur who typically has worked with entrepreneurs and young professionals in my practice. If the point of your market investments is to be a safe and secure nest egg which hedges against the cost of living, then the scope of the passive/active argument can be narrowed to find an actual answer. If the point of your market investments is to actively engage in a side hustle to enrich yourself faster than your peers, then the scope of the argument can also be narrowed to find an actual answer.
We rarely, if ever, see agreement on the why, before arguing the how.
We wouldn't, with any social decorum, berate a teacher or a janitor who enjoys a steady and safe career, to burn it all down, and start hustling real-estate, just for the money. They are an adult who has in all likelihood rationally decided to live the life they are leading (or at least deserves to be treated like that have). No more would you ask an entrepreneur who is pounding out 90 hour weeks, why they aren't using the 20 minutes of rest they have each day, to assess the entirety of the stock market and make detailed predictions on how to best spend their money. They are already doing that. For a living. In a different field. For 90 hours a week. Yet, the passive proponent is telling hobbyist traders to pack it up and buy an index, while the active proponent is telling busy people who just need to prepare for their future, they are doing it wrong.
Any real solution to the passive/active argument is almost always situational. And yes, my personal and professional opinion is that for the vast majority of people, the answer is passive. Because they already have a job. That doesn't mean active is a fiction. It just means it's different.
In my opinion, there is no point to the discussion without context. As there is no answer, without said context. No amount of data is going to give you a question. Data can only help answer one.
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Really great Video and Animation but you forgot some major points (it’s ok even I had to research 2 Years for those Informations)
1. The Conditions to join the Euro have no economical nor mathematical calculated backing, they were just randomly set.
2. Either way the EU Statistic department has already found out about the fake numbers before Greece has joined, but the Commission, Germany’s Chancellor Schröder and France’s Prime minister denied deeper investigations and wanted Greece to be part of the Euro. (Economically it was nothing wrong with it, in a Currency Union it doesn’t matter how high your debts are or how productive you are, you only have to follow the Euro Inflation Target of 2%)
3. Greek had to follow the Inflation Target of the Euro, how to do that? Increase Real wages in line with productivity plus inflation Target of 2%.
A couple years before the Euro Greece has followed a 15% inflation but always had to devalue until they followed Germany’s 2% inflation target that was very stable for Germany. In fact Greece wasn’t alone to follow that inflation target, whole of Europe followed that target. Which then ended in the Euro.
But then South Europe increased their wages to high with a 2,8% Inflation, while Germany had Deflation and slowed down their wage increase (which now dangers whole of Europe with Deflation)
This made South Europe increasing their Trade deficits (wich are the largest chunk) as they were expensive and wage cuts are useless and dangerous(because of Deflation) as long as Germany blocks that way with its low wages.
Only few countries (depending on the size of the economy) in a Currency Union can cut wages to “repair” their economy through exports, if all countries are doing it than it will cause Deflation.
4. the Greek People didn’t just revolted because Spending was cut, they revolted because those cuts destroyed the domestic market and created mass unemployment.
Furthermore the 30% wage Cut wich No Country ever Before had done (even the US during the Depression had cut 28%) resulted in 30% less demand wich resulted in more Unemployed people. (This reality also contradicts with the Neoclassical idea that the labor-market functions as a normal market)
This observation made the IMF change their former Neoclassical position wich caused the fighting in the troika, which you mentioned.
See now it doesn’t look so one sided anymore.
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The resolution of this paradox that you've described in this video, reminds me of an idea in physics about electric charge in a conductive material.
If you have a conductor, we assume that all the charges are arranged in their lowest possible energy state (a type of 'efficiency', you could say), because if they weren't, all the other charges would push/pull them into such a position.
That is, for many applications, electrical forces act so quickly that you can assume they've already taken their course, and so the electric potential energy is minised.
This could be seen a similar to how for a passive investor, you can assume that any market force has already acted, and so the error between the price and the value has been minimised.
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Very long time viewer and fellow Canadian here (although I slightly prefer referring to myself as Québecois ;) ). When I started watching, your latest videos were on topics such as interest rates and yield curves so about 6 years ago.
I enjoy the current format and the frequency of video. I went back to look at my historic of watched videos on your channel and I have watched about 75% of them which surprised me. The vast majority are watched until the end which is another positive sign for this format.
One thing I would enjoy to see more often but that might not be as popular with the algorithm are the "class" type videos about a specific concept such as SPACs, HFTs, etc. Similar to those first videos I watched.
For example I have also been watching Patrick Boyle since around the same time as I started watching your channel, and while I still enjoy many of his videos, I have watched less than 50% of his latest videos (Hope he doesn't see that, very afraid of being the target of his vicious deadpan jokes). I believe this is due to the higher frequency of videos as well as a shift in the type of content focused more on entertainment at the expense of informative content - not to diminish his work in any way, he is very good at it and having been a teacher it might be a breath of fresh air to do something different that still makes use of his knowledge.
I commented because you asked for opinions and it seems sincere, not the usual "like, comment and subcribe for the algorithm". I say keep up the great content for as long as you enjoy it as a hobby. Having a full time job and being a parent is almost like having two jobs, in your position I wouldn't want a third one.
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I'm not here to argue that one should invest in btc, I speculate on btc as a hobby, but honestly I have no clue what moves the price and do not have any illusion that I have any skill in predicting it :P It's an adventurous hobby :)
With that said...
Couldn't you argue that adoption (as in using btc as a currency) is increasing the intrinsic value of btc? The more people use a particular currency, the more it is actually a currency. What's the intrinsic value of money? Isn't that its usage? Sure, other factors may indirectly influence that (e.g. governments banning something as a currency or the fact that a euro/yen/dollar is backed by a military/sovereign state(s)), but overall isn't usage the intrinsic value (or something close to that)?
If you say that btc has no intrinsic value, then normal money also has no intrinsic value. This is evidenced by inflation. If money would have intrinsic value, then as I understand it inflation wouldn't exist.
Anyways, some thoughts that I have. I'm not married to this opinion, nor do I have a strong confidence in it, as I haven't researched this area as much as I'd need to. But for now this is how I look at things.
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at last,someone explain it very thorough about fundamentals. it's become my concerns lately,it's really annoying and i hate it. it appears on my trading terminal, discussed "optimistically" on all the legit forum, and in the most of investment site i access, yet one of bitcoin superfans i know say to me, bitcoin need to be high valued because everyone needs to pay for blockchain farm maintenance. and i said what??!! that's not how it works. there i know its 16.5 mill worth of s*?t. i want to short it, but the spread is ridiculous,that even after it's going zero, the return wouldnt be too good. pardon my english, im not speak it on daily basis
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