Hearted Youtube comments on Econ Lessons (@EconLessons) channel.
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As a Russian citizen who follows the economic situation in the country, I can briefly explain what happens with those GDP numbers. The stats are most likely pretty accurate, but the GDP in this case doesn't reflect the actual economic situation for most people. Before the war, Russia had a large financial reserve called the National Welfare Fund. This fund was created a long time ago to serve as a buffer during times of crisis. At the start of the war, it had more than $100 billion.
To sustain the war efforts, the Russian government drastically increased its spending on the war (this year, it accounts for around 40% of the yearly budget). To maintain such high war spending while keeping other sectors like education and social programs somewhat afloat, the Russian government has had to spend a significant portion of the National Welfare Fund reserves. At this point, the liquid part of the fund is already half gone.
Essentially, what has been happening over the last couple of years is a massive flow of government money into the military sector. This is reflected in the GDP figures, as the military sector (often referred to as 'other metal products' in economic reports) is the only sector experiencing growth. In contrast, private sectors are either stagnating or in decline.
It's important to note that the growth from the military industry is not equivalent to growth in other sectors. This is because once tanks, shells, and other military equipment are produced and used in the war in Ukraine, they are essentially lost, without generating the same 'multiplication' effect as goods and services produced in non-military sectors.
In summary, the GDP growth numbers in Russia have very little connection to the actual living standards of the population. They mainly reflect the enormous government spending in recent years on the war, which is not sustainable beyond 1-2 more years.
TLDR: Imagine your government had a pile of money and spent it on producing billions of tennis balls and burying them in the ground. It would show in the yearly GDP numbers, but it would not affect your economic situation whatsoever. That's what is happening in Russia at the moment.
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I am from Lithuania and I used to really feel pitty for the Russia before 2022 due to the gigantic loss of opportunity. What we, Lithuanians, achieved throughout 33+ years of independence is massive, insane. And yet, we don’t have such abundance of resources like Russia has around the surface, in depths of the soil, sea (Dutch disease, sure, is the reason). But, anyways… I really hope that one day Russia (🤍💙🤍) will eventually succeed and will be part of the world which Italy, Germany, and Japan joined after the capitulation. I pray everyday for the better world ✝️🙏☦️
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