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Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "" (@Rob_F8F) on "Trump Takes on Trade || Peter Zeihan" video.
Now farmers are in danger of losing their farms because the President has decided to deadbeat them on payments that they were owed under the Inflation Reduction Act. But at least they'll get a tax break on the farm they lose.
9
Stopping trade to force self-reliance is what North Korea does. How is it working for them? Besides, Trump stated tariffs are to raise government revenue to replace that from income tax. To do that, it would take 30-40% tariffs that would be paid by the American people. So the money saved from lower income tax would be spent on higher prices goods. No just Chinese imports but also stuff like US-built automobiles because US auto manufacturers import steel and computer chips as well as other components that would be tariffs.
7
We make weapons, aircraft, and movies that export well.
3
Besides the election, what else has Peter been wrong about?
2
China's GDP and standard of living started pretty low so fast growth was possible. As an developed country, fast GDP growth is much more challenging. If it was the US that had dirt cheap labor and a massive foreign market to sell its exports to, then the US could have done the same thing.
2
Would you mind explaining how Peter is totally wrong on tariffs?
2
@toxic-o1u US steel is more expensive (labor). The US is just starting to fabricate semiconductors and the fastest are still being made in Taiwan. The US makes no screens. All TVs, monitors, and laptop screens are imported. Can this be brought back? Yes, but it will take years for that to happen and for volumes that increase to meet all demand. In the meantime, the cost of tariffed imported goods will be paid entirely by the US people.
2
@gagamba9198 If the US is to replace imported products with domestically produced equivalents, then the US manufacturing percent will need to increase. Part of the reason for the off-shoring of manufacturing 25-30 years ago was comparatively higher US labor costs. That remains the case. Any re-shored manufacturing will have engage workers who are higher cost.
1
@gagamba9198 German is able to support high-wage workers in the same way the the US supports its high-wage workers, by employing them in technologically advanced, high-margin industries like aviation, engines, and precision tools. Reshoring lower-skilled industries, like assembling iPhones will be more challenging as a Chinese worker assembling that specific item starts at under $3/hour.
1