Comments by "Spring Bloom" (@springbloom5940) on "Covert Cabal"
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@DonVigaDeFierro
Not exactly true. US military supremacy, has largely been built on diversity of systems. We may have 6 different weapon systems, for the same application; each having different strengths and weaknesses. The best weapon, is still vulnerable to single point failure/neutralization. Take, for example, the entire F35 fleet being grounded, for a fuel line. If all you have is F35, then you're boned. Suppose the enemy finds an exploit to jam its electronics? Or, its stealth isnt as effective as you thought? What if the supply line, for part like the compressor shaft, which has only one mfr, is cut? If you have other planes that can perform the same mission, perhaps not as well, but have different capabilities such as speed, range, agility, payload, numbers, etc. you're not only still in business, but an adversary must be able to thwart all of those threats.
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Ill add that BVR is largely wargaming fantasy. With a handful of exceptions under very specific circumstances, every air to air engagement, since advent of BVR capability, has required visual ID of targets, per ROE. That is, you cant just shoot at shadows in the doorway. Any freefire zone will, as you noted, likely be occupied by real threats, not 3rd World operators of 2 generation obsolete export models. The main problem with BVR combat in practice, is that it gives the target a LOT of time to respond. In the case of F35, youre talking about firing a very limited number of weapons, all of which have a poor reliability factor, giving away your presence and then getting chased down and shot in the back, by interceptors. The reality is, no one has any idea if stealth even works, because no stealth aircraft has prosecuted a mission in airspace denied to conventional aircraft, neither has a stealth aircraft attacked an unsuppressed airspace. In fact, by measure of miles flown, ordnance on target and targets destroyed per unit lost/grounded, stealth has a miserably poor record.
The F35 could've been a genuine gamechanger, had it been developed modestly, as a direct replacement for the F117. But, it became an investment paradox, where as the price increases, it becomes harder to drop and progressively less tolerable to potentially lose a plane. Now, we are committed to building an invincible, invisible superhero, instead of a cheap, short range incursion aircraft, thats back on its own side of the fence, before the bombs hit.
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This is highly inaccurate.
1) They have air dominance in the active theatre(listen to some foreign fighter interviews about constantly being bombed and rocketed by su24s and gunships). They're just not venturing beyond the front.
2) They're not risking it, because they a) have no necessity to at this time and b) are saving it for operations over the winter, when Ukrainian forces are fixed by environmental conditions.
Everyone habitually projects their own motives and doctrine onto Russia; both of which are fundamentally different from the West. Russia is in no hurry whatsoever, they have come to stay and are already planning for next winter's operations. They do not need to risk air assets to speed up an artillery war, because their doctrine dictates withdrawal and bounding defensive action upon significant contact and permits loss rates that Western militaries would consider unacceptable. This allows them to play whack-a-mole with enemy forces and let them punch themselves out. Then, they relaunch from a foothold, retake any ceded objectives and push a little further each time; theyve been repeating this cycle since March. Interventions are a lot faster paced, because you don't have to worry about sustainment; you just blow up everything and go home. Everyone continues to badly misinterpret and overestimate out successes in Iraq (I was there, the bottom line is Iraq never recovered from Desert Storm and they were an empty shell in DS). Whatever happens today, tomorrow, or next week, Russia intends to be there defending that territory, 20 years from now. They're on glacier time, while Ukraine and NATO are playing speed checkers.
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Information is not intelligence and facts do not convey conclusion.
Public sat imagery is of extremely limited value, even when current(I've gone half mad trying to do moderate confidence BDA, from public imagery). Public sat imagery resolution is measured in meters. We measured in centimeters and used stereoscopic viewers on composite sequential images. An example he cites, is '3 - 4 days' capture frequency. Operationally useful imagery is closer to a 3 - 4 sec window; we could look at dozens of images of a single vehicle, captured seconds apart, at more than 90° of separation.
Analysis requires multidisciplinary knowledge. For example, in Desert Storm we looked at vegetation to determine soil structure. From this, we could estimate the weight of a vehicle and take an educated guess at its cargo. So, we could determine if a vehicle were carrying personnel, or ammunition, by using the ratio of light green to dark green, to brown, in a few pixels of surface feature, as a reference.
Obviously, there is some utility to public imagery, just giving a reality check against tactically actionable GEOINT.
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Iran has trampled to death dozens of their own people and injured hundreds more. They've launched a completely impotent missile strike and with hand shaking so badly, in fear of reprisal, killed more than a hundred more of their own, shooting down an airliner. Their terroristic impulses are so out of control, that they've killed over 150 and injured hundreds of Iranians and faceplanted themselves, in front of the whole world, in name of 'revenge', for killing their TERRORISM LEADER
I think Iran's biggest problem right now, is one or more of their regional enemies, smelling the blood in the water, knocking them over like a liquor store.
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Russian military doctrine is backwards of Western forces. Russia's tip of the spear is low value assets; broken vehicles, obsolete or poorly maintained weapon systems, conscripts and penal brigades, etc. The initial phase, is typically a RIF operation, that disposes of these expendable assets as bullet catchers, to probe eny capabilities. Where US military will try to get a broken vehicle back into action, Russia will abandon them over a flat tire. The follow-on waves increase progressively in experience and capability.
They likely haven't established air dominance, because its been unnecessary and they want to avoid temptation to impose a no-fly zone. Unlike the US, they'll hide their hand and avoid exposing their true capability, until it becomes necessary. The next week or two will establish broad areas of contested control, with apparently disorganized and diffuse asset deployments and then they'll lock the door and trap everyone inside with them.
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