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Gaza is not Amalek
Veritasium
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Comments by "Gaza is not Amalek" (@Ass_of_Amalek) on "The Most Controversial Problem in Philosophy" video.
that is not a rephrasing, that is the original question. you're just misinterpreting it, as are all halfers. you get hung up on "coin toss" and "probability", and overlook the fact that the question is about the day she is woken up, not about the coin toss. because she gets woken up twice on tails, every time she gets woken up and asked the question, the odds are 2:1 that the latest coin toss was tails. that is the question, not whether coin tosses are 50/50.
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the path is the goal? xD
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it's 1/3 because the setup is that she gets asked after being woken up, and she gets woken up twice on every tails and only once on every heads. obviously the theoretical coin toss is 50/50, but that's not the question.
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@bcpatter68 yes, it's about interpretation of the wording. but the correct interpretation of the scenario clearly leads to 1/3.
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@ChrisContin split the baby!
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@bcpatter68 because it refers to the last time the coin was tossed before the day she is asked. it's in effect a question about the status of the coin toss on the day she is asked. she is asked twice for every one weekend the coin lands on tails. we're not examining each toss, we are examining every time she is asked.
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@AndrewFRC135 lol you suck at math
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@AndrewFRC135 I said that your mathematics proficiency is lacking
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no. every time she gets woken up and asked, it's a 2:1 chance that the toss was tails, because on every tails, she gets woken up twice. the question isn't whether a theoretical coin toss is a 50% chance, of course it is.
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@perperperpen no, that is not the question. the question is"what do you believe is the probability that the coin CAME UP heads?". she gets asked twice for every tails, and once for every heads, so at any time she gets asked, the probability is 2:1. the question is not "what is the probability of a coin toss coming up heads?", it's "considering that you were woken up, how likely is it that the latest coin toss that actually happened landed on heads?".
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@perperperpen no, the probability of a coin toss is 50%. the probability that the coin toss in the scenario WAS heads is 1/3.
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@perperperpen no, because she gets asked twice for every tails, which makes the probability that the toss was tails every time she is asked 2:1. the probability per toss is 1:1, the probability per ask is 2:1.
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@perperperpen eeeh maybe xD
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@perperperpen nah, I'm right
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@ChrisLee-yr7tz no, she WAS asked the outcome. the question is for "the probability that the coin came up heads". that is the outcome. not "the probability that the coin comes up heads" or "would come up heads".
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@ChrisLee-yr7tz you're getting hung up on the term "probability". she is asked to make a guess about the outcome expressed as a probability, not about the probability of a coin toss.
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@ChrisLee-yr7tz she is just being asked to express that guess as a probability. she is explicitly being asked about the one toss that got her woken up, not about the average toss. the correct statement about the one toss that got her woken up is that the probability of it HAVING BEEN heads is 1/3, because only a third of the times she gets woken up is after the coin landed on heads.
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@ChrisLee-yr7tz the question is "what are the odds that it was heads based on the fact that you were woken up?", not "what are the odds that it was heads based on the fact that a coin was flipped?".
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@ChrisLee-yr7tz no, because she is being asked about what the toss was from the perspective of her being woken up, which happens twice for tails. the matter in question is that every time she is woken up, it's twice as likely to have been tails as it is to have been heads.
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@alanorrick6741 the question is NOT what the probability of the coin flip is. the question is what the probability of the coin flip result on any given day snow white is woken up is. and that is twice as likely to be tails as it is heads. half of the weeks, the coin flip is heads, half of the weeks the coin flip is tails, but when it's tails, snow white gets woken up twice. thus for every day she is woken up, the probability is 2:1 for tails. that is the question.
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@ChrisLee-yr7tz I am answering THE question. btw wikipedia cites as the wording of the question: "What is your credence now for the proposition that the coin landed heads?" I think the obscure term "credence" was replaced with "probability" for this video, but has led to a lot of confusion because clearly many people are unfamiliar with the term being applied to past events. it is very important in this case that the question relates to the one specific coin toss that already happened, and that's clearer with the wiki wording.
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@alanorrick6741 I know she doesn't know the day, but she knows the test parameters. she knows that on half the weeks, it's tails, and on half the weeks, it's heads. when it's tails, she gets woken up twice. thus she gets woken up twice as often for tails as for heads, and whenever she is woken up and asked, it's twice as likely that the latest coin flip was tails. I don't understand why you're getting hung up on weekday names, they serve no purpose whatsoever in this.
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@alanorrick6741 sleeping beauty does know the test parameters, otherwise it makes no sense to explain test parameters and then ask how sleeping beauty would choose to answer. she knows that she gets woken up twice as often on tails, therefore the answer to the question of how likely the latest toss was heads is 1/3. you are very dum-dum.
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@alanorrick6741 shut up and think
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