Comments by "Persona" (@ArawnOfAnnwn) on "How China Plans to Avoid Economic Collapse @visualeconomiken" video.

This video continues to peddle the idea that Chin is totally dependent on exports. Let's be clear here - exports make up less than a fifth of their gdp. Germany is a better example of a truly export dependent economy, where it's nearly HALF their gdp. They aren't counting on exports to fix their woes. In fact that isn't even their priority. As the vid notes, they aren't gonna actually collapse and they know it. Their economic woes are a concern, but imo their bigger concern is national security. They see the writing on the wall and are investing heavily into advanced industry so as to make themselves fully independent of the west asap. That's what their focus is on, even if it lengthens the duration of the slump. They aren't investing for exports, they're investing into capabilities.
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@KVUAA He's quoting total debt, while you're quoting national govt. debt. His figure is adding the debts of provincial govts., state owned banks and perhaps even major real estate firms all together, on top of the debts of Beijing itself.
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@pugilist102 That isn't their priority right now anyway. As the OP says, they're not gonna collapse and they know it. Their economic woes may be a concern, but imo their bigger concern is national security. They see the writing on the wall and are investing heavily into advanced industry so as to make themselves fully independent of the west asap. That's what their focus is on, even if it lengthens the duration of the slump. They aren't investing for exports, which is less than a fifth of their gdp anyway, they're investing into capabilities.
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@natsuds1 That's the thing, the us' debt to gdp is much higher is you total it the same way it's done to get that figure for china. Or alternately china is way lower if you calculate is the same way it's done for the us to get the 120% figure. In terms of national debt china is at less than 100%.
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@ValinPrezkowski Chin practically lifted its model from south korea, whose rise was engineered by a dictatorship. Last I checked south korea is one of the fastest rises in human history. And that's just one example.
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@natsuds1 People living in those houses was never gonna happen anyway. The vast majority of them were second or third homes i.e. they were investments. Their owners already have homes. There is a problem with affordability of housing in china, but it's cos of prices for new homes not cos of those that are incomplete.
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You use that word - 'collapse' - which makes it sound far more dramatic than it is. They'll still have over TWICE the us population by the end of the CENTURY. That's a decline, not a collapse. As for debt, ironically they're literally the worlds' largest creditor. The debt is locked up in private real estate firms, some banks and the outlying provincial govts, but Beijing has plenty of money - the national govts. debt-to-gdp is low. Also almost all of the debt is internal to China, so there's no outflow of cash to foreign creditors and they have greater control of it.
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Domestic consumption is literally most of their gdp - exports are a fifth of their gdp. Germany is a real export dependent economy, where exports comprise nearly half of their gdp. As for debt, ironically they're also literally the worlds' largest creditor. The debt is locked up in private real estate firms, some banks and the outlying provincial govts, but Beijing has plenty of money - the national govts. debt-to-gdp is low. Also almost all of the debt is internal to China, so there's no outflow of cash to foreign creditors and they have greater control of it. That doesn't make the problem go away, but it does let them control it.
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@jdeuraud1096 Where are you getting those numbers from? According to the World Bank their 2023 exports as percent of gdp is 19.7, while Germany is 47.1 i.e. half of it while chin is a fifth. And that's lower than the global average of 29.3.
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@jdeuraud1096 By Beijing I was referring to their national govt. debt, not the party. I'm aware their local govts. aren't as solvent, but that too is highly uneven. Their most productive coastal provinces, where most of the people are, are in much better shape than their less populated inner provinces. Hence why the debt being internal also matters - there's room to shift stuff around to ease things. And another large component of the debt is in real estate companies. That often gets lumped in to inflate the debt figure, but it isn't actually govt. debt. They don't seem to want to bail them out, so a good chunk of that may never end up as govt. debt but rather just slowly written off over the coming years.
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@jdeuraud1096 Only someone unfamiliar with their history would talk of them 'going postal'. They've seen far worse times than even the worst projections of this slump, and the party survived it all with as much if not more power than before.
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@jdeuraud1096 Some of those countries are in default, and get the most media attention. Most continue to pay. Indeed studies like How China Lends show that the most common outcome of debt difficulties is pretty normal - restructuring. It may take more time to get the money, but so far as I know most of it is still coming in eventually. And as they have little external obligations of their own, they aren't on the hook to pay back other nations. So the only main risk from slower repayments is to certain private banks, not the state as a whole.
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