Comments by "" (@markpukey8) on "Business Basics"
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All good points. But this is still a catastrophe in the making for China. Among other little details, the US $700B TARP program was A LOAN. It was all paid back, with interest, over the next couple of years. The US taxpayer made a profit off of it. The CCP is never going to get back the money lost to fraud, corruption and outright criminal theft. It will be flushed down the toilet of "social stability".
And the minute anyone brings in "state owned" or state backed funds for anything in China, what they are saying is China will print money and give it away, never expecting to be paid back. It's more social stability games. This may be appropriate, and it is certainly "the CCP system" for decades, but from modern economic theory it's very risky in the long term. Eventually they'll try to use 'state funds' for international trade, and if no one wants to buy their bonds or accept their fiat money... no more international trade.
This may not be a death spiral for China, but it's 100% bad for their economy no matter how you slice it.
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Yeah, they know going higher on the "value added" scale is absolutely necessary. But they have failed to do this for over 20 years, and now, especially in light of what the CHIPS Act will do their advanced tech industries, they never will.
This video talks about the manufacturing problems they face. But it ignores the equally massive demographic problem they face. Over the next 20 years they will become one of the oldest populations in human history. A huge amount of their GDP will be needed to care for their older citizens, and that money won't be available to pay younger workers, buy raw materials for new factories, or anything else.
By any measure I've ever seen, China peaked in about 2010. It's all downhill for them from here. If they are LUCKY by 2070 or 2100 they will have a reasonably stable population of under 1billion people and a healthy, if cheap, first world economy.
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