Youtube comments of John Coogan (@JohnCooganPlus).
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Hey, there’s a lot there, and I agree with most of it.
1. Engineering genius, yes, I don’t think Palmer is or claims to be a genius capable of creating new technology by himself. He’s clearly best at bringing smart people together to work on hard problems, not getting in their way, while still being able to understand the tech at a much deeper level than say a Harvard MBA.
2. Trump support. It’s certainly cocky to brag about you’ve wealth, but I do think he worked his way to the top. He saw a market for VR and connected developers, manufacturers, investors, and consumers to create value. The Gary Johnson support was allegedly due to pressure at Facebook, but it doesn’t particularly matter. I don’t think Trump was a good president, but I still think Americans should be able to support any candidate they like. Circumventing individual donor limits via PAC donations is common practice on both sides of the aisle. In 2016, Facebook employees gave way more money to liberal PACs over conservative PACs.
3. Border Security. You can actually advocate for a position where we dramatically increase immigration but still maintain a strong border. The strength of the border is an independent variable. Anduril’s technology is not antithetical to your position of increasing immigration.
I think we agree on a lot of things here, I really do see where you’re coming from and think you make valid points, I just think the reality is a little more complex.
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Yeah that makes a lot of sense. The good news is that Netflix already has human translators working on the problem of word alignment. They do their best for the dubbed version, but obviously it’s not perfect. V1 would probably just use the final edited video file, but V2 could actually use raw footage from the show to make slight changes to the edit as necessary.
I think the problem with this idea is less competition and more market size. It’s definitely a cool technology, but you would have to sell to Netflix, Apple, HBO, etc and it’s not clear how you could get really, really big. Maybe real-time translation, dubbing, and mouth-remapping for products like Zoom calls could be a long term goal. Who knows, but something is going to happen here for sure.
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That's an amazing story, and theory about the future. I need to read more about trustbusting and Standard Oil, but I could definitely see something like that happening. There don't seem to be that many synergies between the different products offered by tech companies (i.e. AWS and Amazon ecommerce). If they broke out AWS from Amazon, I think you're right that they two would be worth more. There is an open question about what a breakup could look like. One approach would be to split AWS from Amazon, Facebook from Instagram, etc... basically divide at the product level. Another idea is to break up at the regional level, since a lot of the political and speech regulation issues are very specific to certain countries.
I think 2021 might be a bit early for real action here, this feels like more of a 5 to 10 year issue if we're talking about a real break up.
I definitely agree that a breakup could make shareholders more wealthy, but I wouldn't call that "backfiring" -- that would actually be a win-win. Shareholders make money, and anti-trust hawks get to break up big tech. If someone can prove that breaking up big tech will lead to more innovation, I will support that 100%. I haven't heard any conclusive arguments yet, but it's still early days. It would be great if no one lost money during a regulatory action. Ideally the whole pie grows and everyone is better off.
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Thanks! In this scene, it’s a board meeting, so you need a board seat to attend. If you start your own company, you automatically are on the board. If you start a company with co-founders, usually each co-founder would have a board seat, but it varies. Sometimes there’s just one founder with a board seat. Over time, as you raise money, each big investor will get a board seat in exchange for leading the round. Usually co-founders who aren’t the CEO will step off the board as investors join. Facebook is a good example. Zuckerberg is the only founder left on the board, but a bunch of major investors have seats. Like Peter Thiel, who led the seed round, still sits on the board.
Shareholders meetings are different, usually these are just remote presentations and you might only vote on a single issue. Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway is unique in that anyone who owns at least one share of Class A stock (this might have changed recently) can go and physically attend their shareholder’s meeting. A great way to meet other like-minded investors! But you can’t vote to remove Warren Buffet at that shareholders meeting, because the board of directors loves him!
Does that all make sense?
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Yeah, it basically went like this:
2012-2013: learn to code (python/angularjs)
2014: building Soylent website with agencies and contractors
2015-2017: managing team of ~10 devs & designers
2018: building Lucy store on Shopify, use an agency for the site
2019: need to scale ads, start experimenting with Facebook and Google, start making small creative projects
2020: manage team with 1 dev, 1 creative director, and 1 growth marketer.
There have been a bunch of helpful resources, most of them on YouTube. For video production, CaptainDisillusion, FilmmakerIQ, Aputure 4 min filmschool, WanderingDP, Daniel Shiffer, and a bunch more. For post production / computer graphics: GreyscaleGorilla, Entagma, and Andrew Kramer (VideoCopilot) are all amazing. For managing ad accounts, Andrew Foxwell and David Herrmann put out good content.
The biggest thing is just starting super small. I think the first “marketing” thing I did was a single image with like $50 spend behind it on Facebook. But I did everything end to end so I started to get a feel for the platform.
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Yeah, the dirtiest secret in finance is that all the super successful people are actually entrepreneurs. They just started their own firms, hedge funds, or banks. Grinding for 100s of hours at a massive firm is extremely unlikely to work out. The firms are structured as partnerships and there just aren’t enough partner positions for all the analysts who are burning out on the lower rungs trying to climb the ladder.
On the body issue, I don’t think you have to loose much sleep actually. There are 168 hours in a week. If you sleep 8 hours a night, that’s just 56 hours, leaving you 112 to do what you please. If you’re really enjoying what you’re doing, things will blend together. Social events like dinners and parties wind up having business value because you’re meeting interesting people. The books you read in your “free time” will also relate to your work. So, everything will be work and nothing will be work. I’ve had plenty of weeks where I had less than 10 hours of meetings, only a few hours of busy work, but still spent lots of time working and learning.
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Yeah, that's a good question! Basically, we would put up a landing page, post the idea on hacker news, tell our friends, and then see zero usage. Interestingly, some of the early ideas we failed to launch successfully are now really solid ideas. We built a remote gaming system that was basically Google Stadia and we also built a bunch of AI/ML stuff that became real several years later. We were in a position where our runway was so short, we didn't have any option but to swing for the fences, so unless we had immediate success, we basically moved on (within a month or two). It's possible we could have stayed the course with any of those other ideas and build a successful company, but it would have been really hard to raise money with no immediate traction (since we didn't have strong startup experience at the time).
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Good points overall. I pointed out one similarity between Keith Gill and Ken Griffin, but I do agree that there are other material differences. I personally haven't seen any reputable media sources vilifying Keith Gill. The Wall Street Journal article made him look pretty badass in my opinion, but maybe I'm biased. Never heard the "Russian asset" theory, but that's extremely silly.
I definitely have a lot of respect for the fact that Keith Gill shares everything on YouTube, that's awesome. I haven't heard a great argument for regulation to hurt r/wallstreetbets, but we'll have to watch that develop. It all depends on how many people wind up losing money and how much they lose. If the trade winds up benefitting retail traders from r/wallstreetbets, I don't see a big reason to add "protections" from them. That would sound suspicious to me.
The media and brokers are both generally net long forces. When the stock market does well, people read the financial news, view ads for financial products, and the media benefits. Similarly, a rising stock market is good for brokers, who benefit from higher trading volumes. Shorts are really the only actor we have in our financial markets that have an incentive to root out fraud proactively.
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Yeah, I think you could find strong fintech folks in SF or NYC pretty easily. When I talk about networking events, I'm thinking of hackathons like Startup Weekend (https://www.techstars.com/communities/startup-weekend), tech conferences like PyCon or any conference around a specific technology, or just all the marketing and recruiting stuff that goes on around the big tech companies. There is always some tech company trying to recruit engineers and throwing an event with speakers and drinks where you can meet people. Not so much in rural areas of the country, but there are similar scenes in Austin, Miami, NYC, LA, and Chicago. SF will still be a big tech hub for a while, but it might not be the only viable destination, which is great.
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Thanks for the thoughtful questions!
1. Homelessness is a real crisis. The statistics are bad and have been getting worse. SF is not the worst city for homelessness per capita, but SF is unique in the fact that the largest homeless encampments are directly in the middle of the city. For better or worse, many cities push homelessness to the outskirts. So not only is there a massive homeless crisis, but because of where the homeless live, tech workers are highly likely to encounter them, which draws more attention.
2. Austin is an easy sell for SF folks. It's a similarly liberal city and home to the South by Southwest tech conference. Texas has no state income tax and better weather, so Austin attracts a lot of people. More importantly, the physical location of venture capital is quickly becoming irrelevant. Also, lots of the people who are moving are VCs themselves, so they are bringing VC dollars with them. The structure and function of the state and city government is much more important to the big names who are moving. They want a well-run government with low taxes and business-friendly policies. If those two things are true, VC dollars will flow there easily.
3. ADU companies like Abodu are good. Any new construction is good in my opinion. Whenever you have a housing crisis, you should always focus on increasing the supply of housing, since you can't really adjust demand (everyone needs a house). The problem is that many jurisdictions have closed the loopholes that allow ADUs to be built. Also, I don't see many people with the space in their backyard to build an ADU, renting that out to a low-income individual at friendly prices. More likely, that will be used as a guest house or studio, increasing the value of the property, but not really creating more real housing units. The name of the game is building lots of affordable housing. Build up and out. Build a high-speed train from the city-center out and then build a 100 story apartment building on top of it at every stop (basically). ADUs are good, but not a panacea.
Please considering subscribing to the channel if you haven't already!
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Yeah, I should have been clearer there. I’m a big Adam Curtis fan and have been meaning to watch his latest work. The idea that Silicon Valley is widely Libertarian / Randian is an interesting one. One possible explanation is that most Randians work in Silicon Valley, but most people who work in Silicon Valley aren’t Randian. The Ayn Rand institute seems to be on life support right now, they even needed to take a PPP loan from the US Government in 2020, which is very ironic. So it’s possible that Randian influence happens to be very low at the moment, even if that influence is concentrated in Silicon Valley, it doesn’t swing the region overall. Sorry if that’s worded a bit messily.
There are several reasonable arguments for wealth redistribution than tend to bounce around Silicon Valley.
- it’s a nice thing to do
- giving more people access to basic resources will allow more people to invent amazing things
- if we don’t redistribute, there might be a violent revolution
- etc
I agree with the idea that some progressive lip service exists, but the Stanford study was anonymous, so you’d think that people would be a little more open than on, say, Twitter.
My point with the political compass section was to point out that, while it’s true that Silicon Valley folks do differ from the two dominant political ideologies in America, they do so in a sort of split the difference kind of way, as opposed to taking a more fringe or extreme position. An anarcho-capitalist would sit outside that box, further to the bottom left than the republican. And a communist would sit outside the box as well, further to the top right than the democrat. Silicon Valley is firmly inside the box, advocating for some things Republicans agree with (deregulation) as well as some things Democrats agree with (wealth redistribution).
It’s all just a really interesting topic of discussion to me. Thanks for the questions! Keep em coming!
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