Comments by "verdebusterAP" (@verdebusterAP) on "China's DF-21D Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile" video.
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@Drew Peacock
"You didn't address my comments above about UNREP and the DF-26"
That would be a waste of time as using DF-26 ships is waste of time
A destroyer or cruiser at max speed can change its position by 11 miles , CVN at max speed by over 17 miles. Even ship at 20 knots would be able to change its position by 8 miles.
The DF-26s at max range cant target ships accurately
The DF-series is only target at closer range. thats the point
Assuming those figures are correct, there are currently 68 active Arleigh Burkes and 22 active Ticonderogas in the USN. That's 90 ships in total.
300 SM-3s works out at 3 per ship. As I said, they're so expensive I didn't think ships would carry many and this figure confirms it.
No, wrong metric. There 10 carrier battle groups with 4 to 5 CG/DD per group. One ship with 20 SM-3 works out to 200 missiles with 20 missiles per battle group
its simpler to equip per battle group than per ship. They are planning to have enough SM-6s per ship but the SM-3 cost limits it to per battle group
here are other options but the SM-3 and SM-6 are the only ones with highest chance one shot one kill
What are the other options? DEWS weapons
One shot one kill is very optimistic when it comes to shooting down extremely fast ballistic anti-ship missiles. Missiles can always miss.
You didn't respond to my suggestions re other ways to take out DF-21s and DF-26s.
The problem with those methods is that they are terminal phase weapons whereas the SM-3 can intercept boost ,mid course and terminal, phase the SM-6 is mid course and terminal phase
How so? They've already been tested
Firing 20 rounds is not operational clearance. All that does is show that the gun can handle HVP ammo
They havent done a complex firing like they do with SM-3 and SM-6 against maneuvering targets
They can operate at max range
Well you're contradicting yourself now. You originally claimed DF-21 and DF-26 couldn't operate at maximum range
SMH
with 20 minutes to spare
A destroyer or cruiser at max speed can change its position by 11 miles , CVN at max speed by over 17 miles. Even ship at 20 knots would be able to change its position by 8 miles.
the DF-26 range is 2500, just by moving 8 miles , you are out of its effective range. When you fire a weapon at targets at the edge of its range, odds are, the target will move out of range every time
Not in an environment where there are enemy subs, sub-hunting ships & helicopters, carrier aircraft in the air, maritime patrol aircraft, geostationary satellites, over-the-horizon radar, a seabed sonar network and surface and underwater drones.
unless they are close by, it all of that is worthless. Like I said, they wont launch if enemy ships are present and the PLAN does have not ships to cover the pacific
even with over watch, aircraft still have to reach the target area or by near by. You still have to get the weapon to target
you are assuming best case that they get lucky but USN is not just launch a TLAM with an enemy with 100 miles of it
a seabed sonar network may be able to track it but once its goes it deep and slows to 5 knots, its a ghost
Heading home? Why would a sub head home after firing a TLAM?
Why would I stick around after letting the enemy know I am here. I would head home for safety
as you stated
its environment where there are enemy subs, sub-hunting ships & helicopters, carrier aircraft in the air, maritime patrol aircraft, geostationary satellites, over-the-horizon radar, a seabed sonar network and surface and underwater drones.
Shoot and scoot tactics
"The US can easily go through the EU on ground and knock Russia defenses and missile via special forces or aircraft.
Which aircraft exactly? Using which ordnance exactly?
As for special forces, how are they going to get into Russia in the first place?
China has the same problem well protected like Russia in pacific but there is a backdoor in Arabian sea Bengal bay.
Arabian Sea? Bay of Bengal? How are they backdoors to China?"
You are moron point blank,
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@Drew Peacock
Shooting at 2500 miles is more advantage for the USN than China. Even if it does travel faster, time is still on the USN side
At Mach 20, or 13,050 miles per hour , its still 12 minutes roughly. The DF-series is only a real threat at closer ranges like 700 miles on down
The SM-3 and SM-6 are both expensive 19 mil for the SM-3 and 5 for the SM-6 however CVNs are billions each. 6-9 bill for CVN-68 class and 10 plus for CVN-78s class
The planned buy for SM-6 is 1800 missiles at a cost of 6.5 billion and 300 plus for the SM-3. The USN plans to replace the existing SM2 with SM-6. The wrinkle is that USN has been successively upgrading the SM-6 which is making it more capable but also more expensive. Same with SM-3, its been successively to be more capable but has it made extremely expensive per shot.
https://missilethreat.csis.org/defsys/sm-3/
With 10 carriers group with 20 missiles per, thats 200 SM-3 deployed hence why the USN is upgrading the SM-6 with SM-3 technology, its not as expensive so they can afford to fire more.
There are other options but the SM-3 and SM-6 are the only ones with highest chance one shot one kill
The USN has no ship for its railgun yet. The HVP rounds from the 5 inch guns are promising but still years away from being practical
In order to kill a missile like the DF-21/26, you need a 300 kW plus per shot. The DDG-1000 has the power but the cost of modding it would be expensive
DDG-51 dont have the power unless you remove one its VLS and replace it would generator/capacitor
The only choice is the LPD-17s but no one made 300 kW weapon yet, everything is below 100 kW
BeiDou-1' will only get the missile to the target area, its own seeker has to find the target. The seeker will face heavy jamming
They can operate at max range but that makes it easier for the USN to target and destroy. Max range gives the target a lot of time to pay with
TLAM: Range 1,300km to 1,700km depending on the variant.
- JASSM: Range 370 km.
- JSOW-ER: Range 22km to 130km depending on the altitude it's released from.
- JSM: Estimates range from 280km to 560km.
- LRASM: Estimates range from 370km to 560km.
Wrong info
The JASSM A range is 370 where JASSM-B range is over 1000 km
JSOW-ER range is 560 km, 22-130 is baseline JSOW
Secondly sub launch is low threat for the sub. First it wont launch if ships are nearby second, once its launch how exactly will China counter attack a sub?
unless they get lucky and have sub nearby , ? Even with nearby sub, the bulk of the PLAN subs are diesel , they dont have fuel to chase down a US SSN
Also launching is easy way to draw enemy ships and subs into a trap
Even anti sub marine aircraft would still need to close enough. Once the sub fires, its going deep and heading home
China or Russia can't possibly be attacked until the threat from their IADSes and anti-ship missiles has been neutralised and we don't currently have any way of achieving that.
Again wrong
Russia is bordered by how many countries. Remember the cold fear was thousands of russian tanks invading the EU. The US can easily go through the EU on ground and knock Russia defenses and missile via special forces or aircraft. China has the same problem well protected like Russia in pacific but there is a backdoor in Arabian sea Bengal bay. Dont assume that US is going to attack from only one direction. Yes battle plans for a major shit storm in pacific but there are other ways into Russia and China
Thirdly the proposed launch aircraft are the B-1B, B-52 and F-15, all of which are unstealthy.They could all be shot down by J-20s and other ground-based aircraft, carrier-based aircraft or ship-based anti-air missiles.
False
The PLAN/PLAAF lack the tankers to extend the J-20 range far enough to intercept. Using 1000 miles as base line, the J-20 would have be orbiting at 1200 plus miles
Also again assuming that they wont overlfy India or Pakistan, Afghan, Taji , Kry Banagladesh , Myanmar.
Nepal is just 400 miles from the Bay of Bengal so they can launch from there too
B-1s and B-52 can launch without threat
The S-400 rated up to Mach 15 , the ARRW is Mach 20
Why are missiles being built that for the most part clearly aren't fit for purpose and don't have sufficient range?
its not about the missile, its how you use it
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@Drew Peacock
The DF-26 wont be used against ships. First its range is 2500 miles which does give it reach but also gives the target 20 minutes. Thats ample time for SM-3s or SM-6s to make an intercept as well time for electronic warfare to jam the missile. The DF-26 like all missiles still requires course updates to stay on target. Ships are moving targets whereas targets like bases and port are fixed and require no additional support.
If used close to China, odds are ,they can counter the jamming as well jam the USN DDG and CGs radar but launching it at max range put its out of range of support and in range of USN defense. The DF series is only real threat at closer ranges. At 700 miles, time to target is just 5 min 30 secs. Its still lot time but less than what they would have at 2500 miles
Lastly in the pacific , the USN is going to be making heavy use of cruise missiles like TLAM, JASSM, JSOW-ER ,JSM and LRASM.
Ultimately China's nightmare will be the AGM-183A. The ARRW tops out at mach 20. From 2500 miles , its 11 minutes
at 1250, 5 min 44 secs
If the ARRW has the range, then the USN problems with the DF-series would be over.
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