Kshitij Bhambri
ThePrint
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Comments by "Kshitij Bhambri" (@KshitijBhambri1) on "Prashant Kishor’s ‘4M’ plan for Congress to take on BJP in 2024 u0026 what the party needs to address" video.
States where Congress can fight on own totally :
Punjab:13
Haryana-10
Uttarakhand-5
Himachal Pradesh-4
Chandigarh-1
Rajasthan-25
Madhya Pradesh-29
Chhattisgarh-11
Gujarat-26
Goa-2
Karnataka-28
Telangana-17
Odisha-21
Meghalaya-2
Tripura-2
Arunachal Pradesh-2
Manipur-2
Mizoram-1
Nagaland-1
Andaman & Nicobar-1
Lakshadweep-1
Ladakh-1
Daman & Diu-1
Delhi-7
Puducherry-1
Total:214 Seats
(No chance of alliance with AAPiye now and should never happen, JDS is losing ground in Karnataka,Not with TRS in Telangana and no chance of BJD in Odisha)
Then comes where it's big Party and has smaller Allies :
Kerala-16/20(IUML, KC,etc)
Assam-11/14(BPF,etc)
Total:27/34 seats
States where Congress is smaller party and already has allies(UPA) :
J&K-3/5 is fought
Bihar-12/40 fought by INC, rest RJD,CPIML, etc
Maharashtra-26/48 fought with NCP , with Shivsena it can be 16 each in 48.
Jharkhand-8/14 with JMM
Tamil Nadu-8/39 and rest with DMK,MDMK,VCK
Dadara & Nagar Haveli- with Shivsena (1 Seat)
Total: 57/147 seats
This adds upto 395 seats.
Now comes the states where Congress has less presence and needs to be at back seat for sure :
UP-80 (Have to go with SP-RLD-SBSP-MAHAN DAL)
WB- 42(Have to go with TMC as Left is non existent now)
Andhra- 25 (YSRCP)
Sikkim-1 (SDF/SKM support anyone)
Total-148 Seats
So Mega Total- 543 Seats
If in Category-1, Cong can win 90-100/212
In Category-2, Cong can win 20-24/34
In Category-3, Cong can win 20-30/57
And UPA allies win 50-60/90 seats
In Category-4, depending on Seats it gets if it can have strike rate of 30-35%
Then Cong can be around 154-172, old UPA combined around 222-242
And Adding SP,TMC, YSRCP would make them cross 272 and total can be around 300.
BJP only has JDU,RLJP as major ally in Bihar, AIADMK in Tamil Nadu..
BJP still will be around 200-220. Then depends where do TRS, BJD,TDP,YSRCP,Akalis ,Shivsena Go along with AGP,NPP,NPF,NDPP,MNF, SKM,SDF
and Ofcourse LJP(Chirag).
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