Comments by "vinm300" (@vinm300) on "Ukraine: Kyiv and Moscow have been locked in war for six months • FRANCE 24 English" video.

  1. What might a peace treaty look like ? a) Russia has suggested demilitarising Crimea, and turning it into a nature reserve. Zelensky stole their thunder and said he intended to do that. A minister then said the Kerch bridge as "damaging to the ecology". b) Russia would give up everything to have the Minsk agreement implemented. Putin is laying a foundation of credibility (snake island, the grain deal, nuclear inspectors etc) to get the West to apply some pressure on Kyiv to compromise. c) Russia would accept arbitration : they are desperate for this to end. They would withdraw from Donbas and Crimea - leaving UN to protest Russians, and allowing an arbitration panel to decide sovereignty over an (unlimited) period. Russia would drag this out indefinitely, just as Ukraine dragged out the implementation of the Minsk agreement. Conclusion : possession is 9/10ths of the law. Russia will try to use arbitration to buy itself breathing space : retaining possession of land whilst an international panel beats around the bush for 10 years.
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