Comments by "Rutvik" (@rutvikrs) on "'Throne of people who ruled Punjab for decades is shaking': Raghav Chadha" video.
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Unless AAP re-orients to a pro business governence model(as opposed to social democrat model), Punjab nightmare starts. I am not too optimistic.
Here are the challenges:
1. Declining farm yields: a primarily agricultural society with very little scope for industrialisation. Unsustainable agricultural practices will continue till there is desertification. AAP has made a Faustian bargain with the agricultural elites and social movements.
2. Borrowed voter base: AAP is not going to fundamentally change the nature of Punjab politics with its "anti corruption" agenda. If anything this is where their model breaks and they will have to pander to the borrowed voter bases. They have little to none when it comes to organic leaders. Don't be surprised if there are multiple CMs, Party hopping and horse trading in the next 5 years.
3. Brand of politics and death of ideology: I think AAP won the wrong state and won it too soon. For the sake of AAP, i had hoped it had been a (with all due respect) low profile state like HP. Goa or a UT. Punjabi politics is a minefield with religious tensions(Sikh vs Christian is coming up for which SAD will be blamed like BJP is for Hindu-Muslim tensions), unstable overexposed border with Pakistan and a declining society(talent flight, declining wealth and social strife). At best, AAP is the Neo Congress. At worst, it will shatter the image and goodwill it built up from within(if so, get ready for Samajwadi AAP, AAP(A), AAP(S), Khaas Aadmi Party.)
4. Industrialize or else: an absolute impossibility under the conditions and platform AAP has won, the obsession AAP has with Nordic social democracy is going to be detrimental. When you give middle class kids education, they want white collar jobs. Enterpreneurship for students(very important qualifier) works only when there is an existing industrial base ie you should have a slowing govt fuelled behemoth like IBM for a Steve jobs and Bill gates to poach talent and make their own companies. Their policies are suited to developed economies than developing ones. Increasing expectations of masses will lead to further talent flight.
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I sincerely hope i am wrong, but the indicators are not looking good. Visit this comment in 5-10 years to mock me if I go wrong but I don't think that will be the case.
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