Youtube comments of (@Kyplanet893).
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edit: i changed it
ok so this video has been out for about a week now and a lot of the comments are mad at me for making clickbait, so i’m gonna try to clear that up in one comment
when i was writing this script a few months ago, i had just gotten recommended a bunch of ai generated clickbait bs that inspired me to make this. I put “there are no habitable exoplanets” as the title as a direct response to the titles of the other videos, which were saying stuff like “these are the most habitable exoplanets”
this video sat on the back burner for a few months until i finally got around to publishing it, and I didn’t bother to change the title
the title is not arguing that habitable exoplanets don’t exist. I say in the video that they probably do. If anything I should’ve added quotation marks to the title (there are no “habitable” exoplanets) to make it more in line with what i actually wanted the video to say (which was meant as a direct counter to the ai misinformation that’s everywhere)
but I forgot to do that, and overnight this became my best performing video ever, and now i’m scared to change the title for fear that the whole thing will just die
my goal isn’t to misinform people. I actively try to avoid clickbait as much as possible, and I research my videos for months before publishing them. When I made this title, clickbait genuinely wasn’t even on my mind, “there are no habitable exoplanets” was just my first automatic thought
(and if you check my other videos you’ll hopefully find this is true, my other video titles are usually very simple and non-clickbait. This video is very much an outlier)
So sorry if you feel clickbaited, but that honestly wasn’t my intention. I had no intent of making the video clickbait, and at this point i’m scared to change it because it could kill the video’s performance, and I feel as though this is an important video to get out to as many people as possible, since it’s directly countering popular misinfo
i’m not trying to make excuses, i need to hold myself up to a higher standard so i don’t become the exact thing i’m trying to stop, and ig i’ll just remember to revise video titles in the future
essay over
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So this video was pre-recorded in December and I couldn’t have predicted the failure of flight 7, so I didn’t talk about it in the video. But it’s worth mentioning here
Obviously a ship blowing up is a very bad thing. This was a major failure and should be taken seriously (and I believe elon musk’s comment calling this “entertaining” is extremely irresponsible), but this will not be the end of the Starship program. Flight 1 and 2 were in a lot of ways much worse than this, and it kept on flying anyway. This will cause a delay and require an investigation, but Starship is still very much on a path toward success. Every rocket in history has had bad flights. This is a step backwards, but it will not significantly alter the long-term plans for Starship. What’s more concerning is how this will delay near-term flights like the orbital refueling test and HLS demo, but I don’t expect those to be moved further back than a few months
But this does show why it’s difficult to make predictions about Starship, and why I was vague in this video. We have no idea when this thing will be ready and only very general ideas as to what its capabilities will be. So take this video as what could happen if things go right from here on out and nothing unexpected happens (and starship has a history of doing unexpected things).
And just as another quick note I was more harsh on Mars than I intended. I believe the Moon and Mars will both be colonized and at the same time. As I’ve said in other comments, the “moon vs mars” debate isn’t real. Both can and will be colonized. What’s more important is which one should we focus on more. And because the Moon is closer and has greater industrial capabilities to benefit life on Earth, I consider the Moon more important right now. That being said, Mars should still be colonized, and Starship will likely help us do it. But because Starship will also be helping build a moon base, by the time we actually start building cities on Mars I think we’ll have significant lunar industry, which makes Starship still important but not as necessary. I believe Starship’s successors will truly colonize Mars, and Starship itself will open up the way for it, and be mostly used to build bases, not cities.
(also I’m aware musk said the moon was a distraction, but the thing is if spacex’s plans for starship become a reality then other companies can just buy launches to bring payloads to the Moon. Starship will help colonize the Moon even if SpaceX isn’t the one doing it)
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Putting this at the top because it’s important
February 23rd, 2025
Yep, as expected, the odds of impact are now 0.0039% (1 in 26,000). 2024 YR4 is now no longer dangerous enough to even be on the Torino Scale, and is now Torino level zero, exactly what happened with Apophis
February 20th, 2025
As expected, 2024 YR4’s impact probability rose, and then fell dramatically. It now has just a 0.28% chance of hitting earth, with the chances to likely continue decreasing. More interestingly, it now has a 1% chance of hitting the Moon.
2024 YR4 updates and sources
January 27th, 2025
-6% chance of impact: https://groups.io/g/mpml/topic/2024_yr4_torino_scale_3/110849089
-Recommendations for how to respond to an impact: https://www.unoosa.org/res/oosadoc/data/documents/2017/aac_105c_12017crp/aac_105c_12017crp_25_0_html/AC105_C1_2017_CRP25E.pdf
-NASA Sentry data about 2024 YR4: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/details.html#?des=2024%20YR4
In addition to this, the Wikipedia article for this asteroid is being kept up-to-date by actual astronomers studying the asteroid, and should remain factual. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_YR4
January 31st, 2025
This became slightly out of date before I even published it lmao
2024 YR4's impact probability, not including negative observations, has been increased to 1.6% (1 in 63). This is not unexpected. It is expected that 2024 YR4's impact probability will rise as more trajectories are ruled out, before quickly dropping to zero later.
February 2nd, 2025
Impact probability lowered to 1.4% (1 in 71).
February 5th, 2025
Impact probability raised to 1.9%
February 6th, 2025
Impact probability raised to 2.3%
The James Webb Space Telescope will be used to observe 2024 YR4 to more accurately determine its size. https://www.stsci.edu/jwst-program-info/download/jwst/pdf/9239/
February 16th, 2025
Impact probability raised to 2.6%, however this is based on one observation so is likely to change
February 18th, 2025
Impact probability raised to 3.1%. It has now officially passed the highest chance of impact Apophis ever got to (2.7%)
February 19th, 2025
Impact probability lowered to 1.5%
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@somemong989 first off just raw materials, large airless rocks are great places to mine (such as the moon and mercury)
gas giants are good places to get hydrogen and helium (fusion fuel), and the cold ones will have moons with a ton of water
and a ton of uninhabitable planets can just be colonized anyway if there isn’t a habitable one in the system, if we ignore them then like 90% of all stars would just never be used and all of that space would go to waste. Habitable planets are better to live on, but if there isn’t one, something like the moon or mars or titan or any host of other environments are capable of hosting large populations
then just scientific value as i mentioned. Uninhabitable planets aren’t a single population, there’s rocky ones, gas giants, cold ones, hot ones, ice giants, etc. Every single one is going to be different and have different benefits or drawbacks in both science and usefulness
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@TheTruth-ir7sz i should actually cover this mindset in a video
there are two reasons why we should colonize space now. Firstly, humanity is very big. We can do more than one thing at once, we as a civilization have never united to do one single thing at a time, it’s just not how we operate, and forcibly limiting other technologies to solve a problem does nothing to help solve the problem and only hinders progress.
Secondly, space colonization can help solve climate change. Outsourcing mining to the moon or asteroids will remove some of the strain on earth, as well as create new technologies we could use to solve it, like, for example, orbital mirrors that could simultaneously stop some sunlight from hitting earth to cool it down (its a better idea than many people think) while beaming that sunlight elsewhere to generate power. Similarly, solar power is easier in space because there’s no atmosphere or day/night cycle to get in the way. Space-based solar power is actually an extremely good way of generating power, but to do it at any large scale, we’re gonna need to start colonizing space
so forcibly stopping space colonization to take care of earth first not only hinders progress but does nothing to help solve the problem and in fact closes off some of the best solutions we have.
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This is actually a very bad idea for a few reasons
1. This would help fix issues on earth. I talk about why in several other videos, most notably the real reasons for space colonization
2. Human progress is not linear, it is a web. Technology developed for space exploration has significantly helped in solving problems on earth. climate monitoring satellites, for example. You don’t get those without building rockets. That’s just one example of many
3. All this does is ensure no progress is actually made. Here’s a question for you: what does “fixing issues” look like to you? Where do you draw the line? Where do you say “yep, this is enough, we fixed everything, now we can go to space”? Because there will always be another problem. Solve world hunger, there’s disease. Solve disease, there’s war. Solve war, there’s inequality. You get the idea. Do you demand an impossible utopia on earth before going to space? Which problems do you consider worthy of solving before exploring space? The answer to that question is going to be different for everybody. So, if everyone thinks like this, the only thing that’s going to happen is we never explore space. It will not solve problems on earth any faster. In fact, ignoring space would make it all worse. All you’d be doing here is removing solutions while doing nothing to actually solve the root problems.
4. The money spent on space is trivial compared to how much money actually exists. NASA is 0.5% of the US budget, and a lot of that is Earth science (which helps fix issues on earth!). That money is not going to help in any significant way. Go after something actually wasteful, not the money being spent on studying earth and looking for ways to use space to solve our problems.
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The difference is these new landers are
1. entirely robotic
2. much smaller than landers with people on them
3. made by companies with no experience going to the moon
Because of this, they don’t have any bandwidth to spare for live video. There’s no humans on board, meaning 100% of the mission must be controlled from earth, which means they need a lot more bandwidth to communicate with the spacecraft. They’ve never landed on the moon before, so want as much data from actual instruments as possible, leaving less room for live video still. And, because they’re small (you don’t send a big, expensive lander on your first go), they have less bandwidth in general. All in all, these three things make live video very difficult, and it’s just not worth it. Once these companies start getting more experience and start sending bigger, more capable things, you’ll find that live video will be easy to come by.
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@Axodus That’s not the same thing. There are about 400 billion stars in the galaxy, but only a few million within the distance V1400 centauri is from earth. If it has a say, 1% chance of happening per year to make things simple (those are not the actual numbers) then it should happen 4 billion times a year in the entire galaxy, but only a few ten thousand times in our local neighborhood where we could actually see it. So this is a combination of an unlikely event and an unlikely area for it to occur in (where we could see it). So yes, it’s rare. galaxy, but only a few million within the distance V1400 centauri is from earth. If it has a say, 1% chance of happening per year to make things simple (those are not the actual numbers) then it should happen 4 billion times a year in the entire galaxy, but only a few ten thousand times in our local neighborhood where we could actually it. So yes, it’s rare. Sure, they’ll stand out, but that doesn’t change the fact that you’re not gonna see it often. You could search the entirety of earth and find some very rare things in nature, but the chances are you’re not gonna find them in your own backyard because they aren’t there. It’s a smaller area, and so has less chances to be there.
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no it doesn’t lol
we’ve discovered less than 0.000000001% of all the planets that likely exist milky way. Of those, less than 0.1% of those even had a chance of being habitable, all the rest are gas or ice giants or hot rocky planets like mercury and venus
this is nowhere near a large enough sample size to make any definitive conclusions
don’t get me wrong, if you believe in a god, i don’t care. You’re allowed to believe whatever you want, i’m not gonna be a reddit atheist. We have no idea how earth got life, or how the universe began, and for all we know it could’ve been a god that made it. But this is not evidence of a god. It’s evidence that we have an incomplete data set.
Now, if we find and study all the 1 trillion+ planets in the milky way and not a single one is habitable, then that’s another story. But right now, this is not a large enough sample size to make any big conclusions like that
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A lot wrong here
1. spacex has quite literally always delivered on what they have promised. “but look at tesla!!!!!” they are different companies. I don’t give a damn about tesla, and neither does anybody working at spacex. This is literally like saying “Well because bill gates owns microsoft and xbox, because the new windows update was bad then surely xbox will never make a good console ever”. Windows has nothing to do with xbox. Tesla has nothing to do with spacex.
Saying spacex has never delivered is such an obvious lie that i dont take anyone that unironically says that seriously. Anyone who says that clearly has zero clue what is going on in the space industry and literally doing a single google search would prove you wrong. The falcon 9 is the safest rocket that has ever existed. It has launched more times this WEEK than the entire continent of europe launches in a year. Elon musk is not building the rockets. You clearly don’t like him, so stop giving him credit for things he didn’t make. The thousands of engineers at spacex built the falcon 9. Their ceo did not.
2. There was no way for nasa to make their own ships. Look at the budget.
3. Again with the comparing unrelated companies. I don’t know how much clearer I can make this. The ONLY similarity SpaceX has with any other company is they are owned by the same person. different people work there. They make different things. They have different financial systems and leadership structures. Spacex is private, tesla is public. Stop comparing things that aren’t comparable because you have a problem with the guy in charge (which, by the way, he isn’t even in charge. Gwynne Shotwell runs spacex. Elon musk is a figurehead with very minimal power.)
4. nasa has never built a rocket. They have ALWAYS used companies. The saturn v was built by Boeing. The space shuttles were built by Rockwell International. Again, this is an example of people being completely unaware as to what actually happens in the space industry. The only thing different today is the companies have changed. There have always been companies.
I don’t like elon musk. But you are letting your own hatred of one guy ruin your perspective on an entire industry. It is very clear that everything you said in this comment you only believe because you don’t like musk, because none of it is true. You’re for some reason bringing up a car company and using it as an example as to why rockets won’t work. If this was about any other person, that would be absurd. But for some reason people throw any logical reasoning away when talking about elon musk.
Try to understand nuance. You can dislike elon musk and still understand that spacex is really good at what they do.
I will say it again: the falcon 9 is the safest rocket that has ever existed. “Shoddy work quality” put 2/3 of all the satellites currently in earth orbit there, and has launched over 400 times with a greater than 99% success rate, and is the primary method nasa uses to get people to the ISS. I say this as nicely as possible: you have no idea what you’re talking about. You’re letting one guy control your opinions, and that is EXACTLY what he wants. Just ignore elon musk. That’s what I do, and I’m a lot happier for it
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@ Falcon 9 development was absolutely like this. They almost went bankrupt trying to make it to orbit. In fact, Starship is significantly better than Falcon 9 development in that case, because at least this time they aren’t running out of money. That’s also why there’s seemingly been less progress. There’s no concern about running out of money, so spacex has the capability to launch more ships to get more data even if they blow up. For Falcon 9, it was get to orbit or cease to exist, so of course they prioritized it. For Starship, the goal is to become operational as fast as possible. They have less of a need for immediate successes right now and more need for data. As I said in the video, this type of rocket has never been built before. It’s bigger, more powerful, uses a different type of fuel, and is supposed to be fully reusable.
Would it be nice if they were further along? Absolutely. Are the recent failures bad? Yes. But is this a sign that there is something fundamentally wrong with starship as a concept? No.
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@beskamir5977 no, spacex publishes what their goals are for every starship flight before launch.
Flight 1 was simply get off the pad. They didn’t do well, but that was done.
Flight 2’s goal was to get as far as possible after stage separation. It didn’t last long after stage separation, but was mostly fine.
Flight 3’s goal was to relight engines in space and make it to reentry. It didn’t do that, so not good.
Flight 4’s goal was to survive reentry, and have its booster make a controlled soft landing. Both were accomplished, flight 4 was a resounding success.
Flight 5’s goal was to repeat flight 4 but catch the booster. Again, complete success.
Flight 6’s goal was to do another catch, and do the engine relight that was abandoned on flight 3. The catch was abandoned due to problems with the tower, not the rocket, and the engine test was a success.
Flight 7’s goal was another booster catch and to get a new type of ship to reentry, and to test payload deployment. The catch was accomplished, the ship goals weren’t.
Spacex is very clear with their goals. They are all well-known long before the launch. Just because you aren’t aware of what the goals were doesn’t mean they’re “moving goalposts”
Being as strict as possible, flights 4 and 5 succeeded in their full mission parameters. With some wiggle room (accepting that flight 1 didn’t really have defined goals and the flight 6 rocket was fine, it was only the tower that had problems) Flights 1, 4, 5, and 6 were full successes.
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here are a few i can think of off the top of my head
Janssen (lava planet 8 times the size of Earth, potentially has a ton of diamonds)
Levantes (red in color, extremely young, thousands of degrees in temperature despite being further from its star than neptune, probably has rings)
Halla (planet that orbits a star that shouldve expanded and destroyed it in the past, we have no idea how it still exists)
Ahra (planet that orbits a dead star, 9 times bigger than jupiter and has such an active core that it heats up itself to have fairly earthlike temperatures)
TOI-849 b (rocky planet that is somehow half the size of Saturn, likely the core of a gas giant that somehow lost its atmosphere)
Enaiposha (potential ocean planet, likely has an atmosphere so dense its impossible to tell where the air ends and ocean begins)
HD 80606 b (gas giant that has an extremely elliptical orbit that takes it super close to its star and then very far away, its literally a planet sized comet)
Cuancoa (has clouds made of vaporized titanium)
Ditso (has clouds made of vaporized quartz)
Phailinsiam (blue in color, actively evaporating, has a comet tail)
K2-141 b (lava planet, potentially has "icebergs" made of sodium metal)
i can go on
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Hey, I noticed you didn't mention the proper names of exoplanets in this video, as they're named by the International Astronomical Union, and this might be an error. 55 Cancri f, for example, is named Harriot, 47 Ursae Majoris b and c are both named but I'm not sure which one you were talking about, and Upsilon Andromedae d is named Majriti. These planets have had these names since 2015, and are the official, IAU-recognized names of the planets. But anyway, great video, and great way to wrap up the year. Happy new year!
(apologies if youre seeing this comment twice. My original one doesnt seem to be loading, so I'm switching accounts and trying again.)
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no it isn’t lol
we’ve discovered less than 0.000000001% of all the planets that likely exist milky way. Of those, less than 0.1% of those even had a chance of being habitable, all the rest are gas or ice giants or hot rocky planets like mercury and venus
this is nowhere near a large enough sample size to make any definitive conclusions
don’t get me wrong, if you believe in a god, i don’t care. You’re allowed to believe whatever you want, i’m not gonna be a reddit atheist. We have no idea how earth got life, or how the universe began, and for all we know it could’ve been a god that made it. But this is not evidence of a god. It’s evidence that we have an incomplete data set.
Now, if we find and study all the 1 trillion+ planets in the milky way and not a single one is habitable, then that’s another story. But right now, this is not a large enough sample size to make any big conclusions like that
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@BenoHourglass none of that is as difficult as you think
SpaceX hopes to eventually use Starship to send 100 people to space in the next few decades. Let’s call that optimistic and say it’ll actually be like 15-20 at once. They also plan to launch more Starships than the falcon 9, so let’s say 200 launches a year. If just a quarter of those have people on them, then that’s 1,000 people in space a year. And starship won’t be the only one doing it. China wants to build a starship clone, so do other companies, europe has concepts of a proposal of a study of a plan to do one. Sending 1,000 people to space every year is achieveable by 2050.
And rockets better than starship will almost certainly be made in 75 years. I would not be surprised (and in fact I expect it) for rockets actually capable of bringing 100 people to space at once to be developed.
Rockets that can send this many people can also send lots of cargo. As in, build space stations. There’s already plans to do this. A single module launched by Starship can have half the volume of the ISS (Starlab). It wants to launch in 2028. With inflatables (that are actively being developed) and starship successors (which we have 75 years to build) Single modules that far exceed the ISS and Tiangong combined in volume can be made, and they can be made in the next few decades.
All of a sudden, we now have the capability to support hundreds to thousands of people in space at once.
So, there is then nothing stopping you from sending those stations out to the moon. As soon as you have a space station capable of supporting 100 people, you have the capability to send 100 people to lunar orbit. Or, why people? Make cargo ships out of stations. Now we have the capability to drop tens of thousands of tons of cargo into lunar orbit. Send landers with these stations like Starship HLS, which should be capable of sending 100 tons at once down to the moon, you now have the capability to build lunar industry. Rockets built on the moon are easier and cheaper to launch on the moon but you already watched the video so I’ll skip the explanation. All of a sudden, lunar-built rockets can build stations that can support multiple thousands of people, as early as the very late 21st century, something like the 2090s. I also recommend watching Anthrofuturism’s How to Develop the Moon series, as it explains how the moon can be industrialized a LOT faster than you think. On the order of decades.
Also, we can be doing both orbit and the moon at the same time. It’s not like we do one then go to the other. We’ll be building stations and moon bases at the same time.
Obviously this is going to take enormous amounts of time, effort, and money to pull off. As I said, the video is optimistic. But the path to the future I explained in the video is a lot clearer than you may think.
(also just in case you’re going to ask “well how do we pay for this?”, which is a valid question, people have already been thinking about that. SpaceX makes a LOT of money off Starlink. As in, in a few years, very skilled economists are predicting their revenue is going to exceed the budget of NASA. that’s how you pay for it. You run low-risk operations, like internet constellations, to fund your larger, higher-risk operations, until they themselves start making their own money through things like tourism. That’s always been SpaceX’s plan since the very beginning so I’m not just making this up. They’ve publicly stated part of the reason they made Starlink was to fund mars colonization.)
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@stewiesaidthat mining in space actually would be profitable very near-term, at least on the moon. Asteroids are still very far away, so those aren’t near-term, but the moon is. Because of the moon’s low gravity, it’s actually easier and cheaper to launch a rocket from the moon to low-earth orbit than it is to launch the same rocket from earth to low-earth orbit. And low earth-orbit itself is the most valuable piece of space to us, because that’s where we put communication satellites, or even things like orbital factories (small scale versions of which have been successfully tested) because there are certain types of medicine and fiber optic cables that are more efficient when produced in low gravity because the lack of gravity eliminates imperfections. There’s also the power generation aspect, since solar power is far cheaper in space because of the lack of atmosphere and a day/night cycle making them more advanced for longer periods of time. But to have these benefits of orbital production and power generation (both of which give huge benefits to our society and average person, i’ve only mentioned some of the biggest ones to keep this comment short but there are more) we need to lower launch costs, and the cheapest way to launch things to low orbit is to do it from the moon. So, space mining, at least on the moon, does have an economic incentive, and could be profitable in the near future. We need infrastructure to launch things from the moon, and it’ll be cheaper to mine and build it there instead of launching all we need from earth, because that would just eliminate the cost benefits
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This is not technology that already exists. Show me one other rocket that is as big as starship, runs on methalox fuel, and is fully reusable. It doesn’t exist. Starship is a COMPLETELY different thing from any other rocket. The ONLY similarities it has with something like the saturn v is that it’s big and goes up. The fact that people keep saying this shows they have no idea how starship or rockets in general actually work. Show me the NASA project where they were building a fully reusable rocket, then I’ll believe you that they “figured it out decades ago”.
The problem with starship is not that they can’t build a rocket. The problem is it is very hard to redesign every single system a rocket has to be reused multiple times. Nobody has done this before. Nobody has come even close to attempting to try to do this before. “nasa already figured it out!!!!” is literally just a lie that falls apart when you apply even the smallest bit of pressure. No, the saturn v is not comparable. The space shuttle is not comparable. There are no rockets that exist that are like starship, and saying it’s “technology that already exists” is just so obviously and clearly disconnected from reality that you have to seriously be deep into some anti-musk echo chamber to actually believe it.
“has nothing to show for it” is also a lie. As I said in the video, progress on Starship HLS is going a lot faster and quicker than some people want you to believe. NASA has officially stated that they are confident and happy with the development of Starship HLS. You seem to think NASA is good at this space stuff (which they are), so if you don’t believe me, believe NASA. They have gone out of their way to say that development of Starship is going well.
Also, what do you mean “how this company operates?” you mean the most successful space company in history? The one that built the Falcon 9, the safest rocket to ever exist? You can do the math yourself on that one, Falcon 9 is genuinely the safest rocket in history. And what happened during its development?
That’s right. It exploded a lot. But guess what? They solved all of the problems, and now look at it. Falcon 9 launched over 100 times last year, and has launched 400 times total. That’s why they warrant faith. They have literally been in this exact same position in the past. Exploding rockets with no clear path to success, and they figured it out. Everything you’re saying about starship right now are the EXACT same things people said about the falcon 9. And then, the falcon 9 worked, and they all shut up real fast.
Please don’t trap yourself in whatever misinformation echo chamber you’re in because you have a problem with spacex. I don’t like elon musk either, but he isn’t building starship. The actual engineers at spacex are. Don’t let your hatred of one guy ruin your understanding of rockets. Some level of nuance is needed here.
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@CitrusPeppercorn (i didn’t mute you, i can still see all your comments and you can too if you sort by newest)
1. No, “he” is not taking funding from nasa. Nasa is the one giving him the money. Nasa is willingly getting money and giving it to spacex. It’s called contracts. Also, they aren’t giving the money to elon musk, they’re giving it to spacex. Not the same thing, stop pretending it is.
2. Hyperloop, tesla, and cars have nothing to do with spacex. They are separate companies. Stop comparing things that have nothing in common with one another except the same guy owns them.
3. Why are you assuming I idolize him? You’re the one who brought him up. Again, this is the problem with the space community. You are incapable of supporting spacex because you don’t like the guy in charge (who, by the way, is basically a figurehead. Gwynne Shotwell is actually running spacex).
I mentioned elon musk maybe once or twice in this entire video, and even then I only mentioned him in passing. You somehow took that to mean I idolize him, like all of his companies, think he’s a good person, and think he can do no wrong. I specifically went out of my way to NOT talk about him for this reason. You’re the one who brought him up, not me. If you actually don’t like him, then stop being obsessed with him. I don’t like him either, but I’ve moved on and accepted that spacex is good anyway. Trust me, you’ll be a lot happier if you just stop caring so much about him.
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yes, it is ok to pollute a place with no life. If there’s nothing to be negatively affected by said pollution, why would
it be bad? Your problem here is you’re assuming that human activity is inherently bad, and the natural world is inherently good. That logic can be applied to earth, as it has an ecosystem. No other place has an ecosystem, so the idea of human activity being bad because it harms the ecosystem does not apply anywhere that doesn’t have life.
Also, what science? If we were studying life, then yes, trash would interfere. But if there’s no life, then there’s no life to study. Trash wouldn’t interfere with science. The only science you really have left for lifeless rocks is geology, meteorology if it has an atmosphere, and other things that are easily studied with or without human activity. We study all of those things on earth already, and we still get great results from it. I also find it ironic that you worry that the trash will have effects on future colonists when you’re against space colonization. “We shouldn’t colonize space because it will affect future colonists” doesn’t make sense.
Again, you are stuck in this mindset that anything humans do is bad just for the sake of it being bad. There is no actual reason that is true. If a world is just sitting there doing nothing, with zero life, then why would polluting it be any worse than its natural state? You cannot ruin places without life because there isn’t anything there to ruin.
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@beskamir5977 And that same document also says artemis 2 (which doesn’t need starship) is supposed to launch by mid-2024. Delays happen.
But NASA itself has also directly said they are confident in Starship’s development in the last few months. SpaceX is working on developing HLS right now. They’ve been in contact with both NASA and actual astronauts for the design of the spacecraft and it’s going well. SpaceX have also already proven they can get Starship to orbit. They’ve put it right at the edge of orbital velocity and relit engines in space. If it was necessary to go to orbit, they could do it right now. NASA was satisfied with this, because they understand how starship works.
Starship currently have no need to go to orbit. Because:
-they are mainly testing launch and reentry. Suborbital is best for that kind of test.
-booster reuse is a critical part of getting Starship ready. That’s a main focus right now that again, doesn’t need orbit.
-orbital tests are scheduled for the next few flights. Expect a full orbit of the earth by flight 9.
-the two main things they want to test in orbit is payload deployment and refueling. Payload deployment isn’t necessary for artemis and can be ignored. To do an orbital refueling test, you need two ships. Currently they do not have the capability to launch two rockets at once (though they soon will), so what’s the point of going to orbit if you can’t do the tests you want?
If going to orbit was necessary, they would’ve done it already. They haven’t because right now there is no need to. They get more valuable data on suborbital trajectories. As soon as going to orbit is something they need to do (such as for a ship catch or refueling) you’ll find they can do it very easily.
I also find it interesting that you aren’t criticizing all of artemis for these delays. SLS and Orion are a major part of them as well, but you seem to only be blaming starship when in reality, the delays are the result of several artemis programs. If you want to criticize starship for being late for artemis, then be ready to equally criticize SLS, Orion, and several other NASA programs.
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No, we can and do know for sure it’s not rocky. Its maximum density is known. Rocks are denser than Kepler-22 b, therefore it is not made of rocks. That is known with absolute certainty. You do not need to land on a planet to know what it’s made of, we knew Jupiter and saturn were gas giants in the 1800s.
And again, we know a LOT more about exoplanets than what you’re giving us credit for. For example, just today a big study came out about the climate of the exoplanet Tylos. We not only know it’s a gas giant, we not only know its temperature, but we now know its wind speed, cloud patterns, type of weather, the difference in temperature between the day and night side, and a lot more. We’ve even made maps of its clouds. And that’s just one exoplanet, there are many other examples of very significant studies being conducted on these places.
This idea that we know nothing about exoplanets is outdated. You do not need to visit a planet to study it. Our telescopes are very advanced, this isn’t the 60s. These aren’t hypotheses, these are facts that we know.
If you want, I can link you some papers to show just how much we actually know about exoplanets. It is a lot more than you think.
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1. billions of years will give billions of different political scenarios, and it’s impossible to predict what would happen. So I’m only outlining what’s possible
2. Definitely not lol. Earth would still have a breathable atmosphere, surface oceans, and at least bacterial life. It would also, most importantly, have soil we can use to farm. Earth is the only place in the solar system with soil. It would also still have a ton of remaining factories and industry, and even if 99% of that is destroyed, it’s better than the grand total of 0 industrial capacity every other solar system object has.
Europa is an airless irradiated hell that the sheer radiation dosage on the surface would kill you in days, and mars has no breathable atmosphere, no soil for farming, almost no liquid water, and no life.
It’s basically like saying “oh no part of the forest burnt down in a fire! Time to move to the middle of the goddamn desert 2,000 miles from home where nobody else lives instead of just putting out the fire or using other parts of the forest”
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@LowerBudgetOppenheimer
1. no. All asteroids that have hit earth in the past have left usable soil. There’s a reason 100% of plants didn’t all die when the chicxulub asteroid hit. Like I said with industry, having just 1% of our soil remaining is better than the 0% that mars and europa have
2. I already covered this. Even if 99% of factories were destroyed, that 1% that’s left is better than 0%. Also, this just contradicts your own point. If there are no factories left, then how are we producing rockets to go to other planets? And why aren’t we just using those factories to build supplies to help people survive, which would be much cheaper, easier, and more effective?
3. On earth, you don’t need radiation shielding at all. You just proved my own point, europa and mars are worse
4. Why would you bring soil away from earth when you can just use the soil on earth. Unnecessary extra step
5. exactly, and no life is a problem. Humans need other life to exist.
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@LowerBudgetOppenheimer yeah ash exists, and when it happened 65 million years ago, things still grew. Nothing has ever grown or will ever grow on mars or europa without life support. Some plants will still grow on earth even with all of this.
and you didnt really address anything else i said. You just ignored the point I made where I said if theres no factories, you cant make rockets anyway. You’re also contradicting yourself. If there’s no plants or usable soil left on earth, then how are we bringing them to mars or europa? You can’t argue that plants won’t be left on earth and then in the next sentence say we’ll bring plants from earth to another planet. Where are we getting the seeds if everything’s dead? where are we getting the soil if none of its usable? How are we going to get everyone off earth if all the launch pads are destroyed? How will we transport everyone if all the roads are gone? How are we making fuel for the rockets if all the facilities for making fuel are gone? Where are you getting people who know how to make rockets, if all the people are dead? Again, your entire argument here is just one massive contradiction. If earth is as bad as you think it would be, then getting to mars or europa would be impossible. And if Earth isnt as bad as you think it is, then its easier to fix it then to move away. Theres no amount of damage that could be done that would require us to leave that simultaneously leaves enough infrastructure intact to make us able to leave.
And Mars and Europa are more barren than earth in this situation. Neither have a breathable atmosphere. Neither have surface water. Neither have soil. You say you dont want to live in a barren wasteland, and then are actively choosing to go live in a worse, more barren wasteland
also, radiation shielding needs a lot more resources than you think. And again, you need none of it on Earth. 0 resources is better than any amount of resources, doesnt matter how "few"
I really think you just dont understand how absolutely perfect Earth is for life, and how much every other place absolutely sucks. You cannot go outside on Mars or Europa, you'd be dead immediately. even in this scenario, you can go outside on Earth and be fine. It still has breathable air. I genuinely cant wrap my head around how you could possibly think mars or europa would be better in this scenario. There literally is not a single criteria theyd be better in
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@cumulus1869
1. growing crops isn’t impossible with an asteroid impact. There’s a reason 100% of all life didn’t go extinct already. Because plants can survive.
Also, if we want to terraform mars, we will at minimum need to hit it with thousands of asteroids. That means we have the ability to deflect them, meaning asteroid impacts won’t happen on earth. It also implies we know how to do genetic engineering to make life that can even survive on mars, which means if worst comes to worst we can engineer plants to survive on an apocalyptic earth, and i would guess we would already have a bunch of them just in case something like that happened
and it would be much easier to put refugees in space habitats, because you can move them to low earth orbit to pick up passengers easier.
2. low elevation areas are perfect for settlements because they have higher atmospheric pressures, which blocks slightly more radiation, and almost all areas on mars with ice in any significant quantity are low elevation.
3. yes, asteroids can move fast enough to make 1:1 earth gravity, or higher (or lower for that matter, you can set the gravity to whatever you want). You don’t need fuel to keep it spinning, you only need to spin it up once. The only fuel you’ll need is if you want to change the speed, otherwise it’ll just keep spinning forever because there’s nothing in space to stop it. That’s why all planets today rotate.
And the 1/3 g of mars is still bad for humans. You can’t fix that. You can set the gravity to whatever you want on a space habitat
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that’s not true, because to go to said planet you need to keep everyone alive during the trip, not to mention the very first planet you go to is not very likely to be habitable (and terraforming it is way harder than just staying in your habitat)
also, nuclear fusion is not the only power source that can do that lol
solar power is cheaper, easier, and proven to actually be economically possible, and with space habitats you can go as close to the sun as you want or build power stations to get far more solar power than you’d get on a planet, because the atmosphere of the planet would make solar less efficient
also, we’ve already done fusion in a lab. It’s possible, we just haven’t managed to do it in such a way that it releases more power than it takes in
and one more thing, planets require the same amount of power, the only difference is space habitats need to collect it themselves
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@avgjoe5969
1. because Starship HLS doesnt yet exist, and we need VIPER on the Moon now
2. We don't need a massive Starship that will take over a dozen launches of refueling for a single small rover. Starship HLS will be useful for much bigger projects, its unecessary for VIPER
3. Redundancy is necessary. We saw with the recent Falcon 9 failure that SpaceX isnt invincible, and Falcon 9 flights are now grounded for the next few weeks. What happens if what happens to Starship HLS? We need multiple landers working around the clock so there's never a gap where we can't get to the Moon, and pouring all money into SpaceX isnt a good strategy, especially if for whatever reason SpaceX suffers a failure
4. So before you read this part, keep in mind that I like SpaceX. Theyve done absolutely incredible things.
But they are not invincible. SpaceX can do wrong, and they have before. It's not as simple as "get starship and modified tesla bots just build the moon base bro". NASA has a long game, and that long game isnt "just rely on SpaceX to do everything" because thats a great way to get in a really terrible situation if SpaceX goes down.
Not to mention how terrible monopolies are for industries. They bottleneck innovation, as once one company owns everything, theres no need for competition. Multiple space companies competing with one another is how things get done faster.
If Starship wasn't rushing for the Artemis 3 contract, or trying to get finished before New Glenn, we would not have seen the rapid development we did.
Again, don't get me wrong, SpaceX is objectively a good company. But it's important to realize that they are good and not perfect
They're the best we have, but competition will make things better.
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1. a protoplanetary disk is not a ring system, as if that were the case then you would also need to count things like the kuiper belt as rings
2. I have 3 sources actually, and in addition have talked to several real scientists about this, and helped write the wikipedia article about j1407b. I know what I’m talking about.
3. Yes, we do know that it’s rogue. I explain pretty clearly why in the video. There is no orbital configuration left that it could possibly have. It does not orbit the star we thought it did, simple as that
4. now you’re the one talking with no sources. Provide a single source that says planets arent forming in that disk. Heck, even if it was a ring system, we still have evidence that there is a venus-sized object forming in a gap. Planets are likely forming in the disk, we have direct evidence of that. Again, I know what I’m talking about, and I have sources to back it up.
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also forgot to mention, but the us isn’t buying from elon musk. They’re buying from spacex, the most successful space company on the planet that has successfully launched 300+ rockets, is the primary entity getting US astronauts to the international space station, made the first reusable rockets, and has launched private astronauts into orbital space without government involvement, which nobody has done before
elon musk is not spacex, stop confusing the two. He’s a figurehead with no actual control over day to day operations of the company.
Anyone who thinks spacex is a scam made by a “snake oil salesman” is simply in denial of reality at this point. Elon musk is a bad person but spacex is awesome DESPITE him, not because of him
also if you think starship wont work ever because of 2 flight tests (which was the amount of tests that had happened when i made this video, its at 4 now with a 5th expected soon) then youre also simply ignorant as to how rockets work. No launch system has ever been perfect on its first try. Every single one has had problems. SLS, Saturn V, Redstone, Soyuz, Long March family, Falcon 9, all of them.
Please google things before saying stuff like this. Its perfectly ok to not like elon musk (i dont) but to belittle the work of thousands of people because its not 100% perfect on the first try is just wrong
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