Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "Why an EU Army Looks Increasingly Likely" video.
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To be fair, most many decades ago would have thought what we have in the EU hard to believe now, things can change, especially in a changing world, we've got the US that's becoming more unpredictable, we've got a rising China that scares the hell out of the US whiles the EU has concerns on China in other areas.
All the jigsaw pieces are falling into place to allow more integration in the EU, especially on military, forign policy and security matters, and the irony is, Trump and Putin could be the ones that make that happen, and to a less degree, a rising China, after all, everything has a countermeasure, Putin invading Ukraine, Trumps antics, all of this will end up focusing minds of governments and the public to allow the creation of an EU military.
But personally, I think the EU should do it like they did with the Euro and Schengen treaty, try and get as many countries onboard first, but then go ahead with it and allow other countries to join in the future, at least that gets the ball rolling and I suspect many EU countries would go for that already.
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I think an EU army makes a lot of sense, it would be far more effective compared to what we have today, it would be a lot more capable because there is a lot of waste and duplications by having 27 militaries, and it would be a lot more powerful, even at current spending, but spending is going up, so likely more so.
The irony is, Russia and the US are the EU's biggest friend and they probably don't realise it, Putin sabre-rattling in the east, Trump and others in the US doing much of the same is the perfect storm to push European countries in the EU to create an EU military, which I highly doubt the US, Russia or China wants as that would be a major player on the world stage in military and forign policy matters.
What Trump and many in the US wants, he wants EU countries to spend more on the military, but they also want them to stay divided as 28 militaries, they are after all, far easier to control and keep weak, it also allows the US to get these countries to do their bidding, an EU military, the US wouldn't be able to get them to do their bidding, it would also give countries around the world more options, especially the ones that don't like US policies, it would also likely harm the US arms industry, because EU arm's will be competing in that areas far more effectively then they are doing now.
On the other side, the US would benefit from an EU military because it would lessen the burden on the US, but it will also weaken the US voice around the world.
Ultimately, the ones that benefit the most are by far the EU and it's members, they'll have more security, a bigger voice, won't have to listen to the US, in fact the US voice in Europe would likely get smaller, the others to benefit are the countries around the world that pick sides, many back the US, not so much because they like the US, but because there isn't any other credible option, and China doesn't look that appealing to most countries, an EU military would look quite appealing to many countries around the world that want to distance themselves from the US, all of this would boost the power the EU and its members have whiles weakening the US, especially around the world, so I highly doubt the US wants an EU military, Trump in the west and Putin in the east could be the Trojan horse that helps to make it happen, which history in the future would look at that in an amusing way of how to shoot yourself in the foot, it kinda reminds me of Brexit all over again, and heck, I kinda hope Trump does get into power to focus minds in Europe to get things moving.
As for the creation of an EU military, that's more complicated, but I think the best way to go about it is how they went about the Euro and Schengen treaties where countries joined overtime, that will make it far easier to get the ball rolling, other countries can join overtime as they see the project works, a bit like we saw with the Euro and Schengen zone, also, spending isn't an issue, just combining those forces together is over the long run going to make them far more effective and capable, even at current spending, after all, the biggest weakness is the duplication and having 27 militaries, not the spending, but regardless, spending is going up anyway, now all we need is the push to make it happen, support in most EU countries is going up for it, Trump could be the icing on the cake if he got elected.
Also, let's be blunt about this, there's no reason why we can't have an EU military that isn't in NATO, after all, NATO doesn't need to go away, but at least the EU countries would have a far bigger voice in it compared to now, so this isn't about the EU military replacing NATO, it's about EU countries having a much bigger voice in the world, and besides, it's reckless of European countries to depend on NATO when the US is becoming more unpredictable.
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