Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "Could Wagner Occupy the Suwalki Gap?" video.

  1. That's exactly what would likely happen, it's the excuse some in the west would need to really ramp things up, that kind of move wouldn't be in the interest of the Wagner group, Russia or Belarus, which would likely be the primary targets for western countries to ramp things up on. Something we should remember, the EU and US are giving crumbs to Ukraine, and even that is giving Russia a hard time, I think we all know that if the EU and US ramp things up, they could do far more, and an attack on an EU, NATO member would be the excuse needed to push that agenda, a bit like a smoking gun, like with the Iraqi war in the early 90's when Saddam invaded Kuwait, which ended up with a coalition of countries that pushed him out, that invasion of Kuwait was the excuse the west needed to really put Saddam in his place.
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  2. Yep, considering the hard time Russia and the Wagner group have been having in Ukraine, they would be crazy to think about attacking an EU and NATO member, it would be the excuse needed for western powers to go in more forceful. If it was to happen, Belarus would likely be the sacrificial lamb lol, with probably more of a forceful push against Russia in Ukraine, something we should realise, the resources the EU and US are giving to Ukraine are more or less crumbs, they could do far more if they wanted too, or more accurately, if given the excuse to do so by a country or organisation that's foolish enough to attack an EU or NATO member.
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  3. They could but it's highly unlikely, regardless of if it's a country or terrorist organisation that attacks a NATO country, the result would be the same, in that, an attack on one, is an attack on all. It would be highly risky for any country or organisation to do such a thing, and it would more or less force other NATO countries to intervene, if NATO is to stay relevant. This is also the case on EU members, an attack on one would put a lot of pressure on the EU and other members to intervene, probably a lot more than it would on NATO members, because unlike NATO, EU members are far more integrated into each other, so an attack on one would have a ripple effect on the others, whereas NATO, it's a loose alliance, that we only have the word of other members that they would come to the aid of others, they likely would, otherwise the value of NATO would drop fast, but with EU members, self-interest would likely intervene, so it's probably more risky for other countries or organisations to attack an EU member then it is to attack a NATO member, based on the integration of the members in either organisations and each other, which clearly, EU members are far more integrated than NATO members are with each other, that matters a lot when it comes to security guarantees and probably why Ukraine's seems far more interested in joining the EU over NATO, it offers the security guarantees whiles also developing the economy.
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