Comments by "Paul Aiello" (@paul1979uk2000) on "Suwalki Gap: The Most Vulnerable Place in Europe to Putin? - TLDR News" video.
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Yep, no EU or NATO country will get attacked unless Russia becomes really reckless, because if an attack ever did happen on an EU or NATO country and they didn't respond back in a very tough way, then a lot of people in other countries will be wondering what the merits of the EU and NATO are, basically, they would have to respond and is probably why Russia doesn't want countries joining the EU or NATO because Russia likely knows it's much harder for them to play games with those countries.
The irony is that Russia being so aggressive to eastern European nation is likely going to push more of them into the EU and NATO as a safe haven from Russia, basically, Russia aggressive actions could backfire on them.
Also, let's be blunt about this, Russia isn't as powerful as some like to make out, today, military power is tied to economic power in being able to manufacture arms as the been arises and being able to invest in high-tech weapons, the reality is, Russia has a weak economy that's around the same size as Spain whiles also being dependent on Europe being it's natural gas, oil and other natural resources.
So if Russia pushes it's luck into thinking the west is weak because of inaction, they could be in for a rude awakening, maybe that needs to happen for the Russians to get a major wake-up call when it comes to Putin that he's not as strong as he wants the Russian people to think.
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@zbigniewp1810 That's not really the point I was getting at, it's the economic muscle is there and can be diverted away from one thing to another if needed, you only have to look at the second world war with Germany and the US to see how that happens.
Just for now, western countries don't see much of a need to spend that much on military production capacity just like the US didn't until the second world war started and they became a big manufacturer of arms for the UK, US, Soviet Union and other friends, that's what economic muscle does and after the second world war, it went from building tanks and the likes to building cars.
So if it comes to about production capacity, western countries have a massive advantage over Russia and even over China for that matter and then there is the factor of investment in high-tech, again, it all boils down to the economy.
In other words, don't think of what they do now but how they can divert the resources of the economy in the areas they need, if it went down that route, Russia wouldn't stand a chance, especially on the money factor.
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@zbigniewp1810 A lot of it is already built, it's just not as organized as the US is but that can quickly change if the need arises, in fact, it's threats like these that can create quick changes if needed.
The truth is, it's not even an issue, after all, there's a reason why no country takes on any modern country because the damage that can be done back is too high to take the risk, all wars since the second world war have either been rich countries taking on poor countries that can't really fight back or poor countries taking on another poor country, we've not seen a single rich country take on any other rich country since the second world war and for good reason, no one really wins and it could very quickly escalate into world war 3 which no one wants that with the weapons we have today.
Let's be blunt about this, the EU and US doesn't see Russia as a threat, they just see them as a small pain in the arse that likes to poke the west in the sides at times, if Russia really became a threat, the economic might that the EU and US can bring to arms would be frightening to Russia and if Russia keeps poking, they could be in for a shock.
Now China on the other hand could be a different story, they've got a big economy, big population and could be a real threat in the future but that threat could be for everyone including Russia.
In any case, I find it all very entertaining, Putin backed himself into a corner on Ukraine, now he's put himself in a position that if he backs down with no concessions from the west, Putin could look weak in Russia which is the last thing he wants considering the image he shows in Russia, if Putin does invade Ukraine, the western countries will likely supple the rebels in Ukraine to make it as painful for Russians as possible, in other words, Russia will likely lose a lot of lives in Ukraine and it will likely be really costly for them.
Have you not noticed how the US is egging Putin to invade Ukraine, almost like they are daring him to do it, the reason why is because the west see this as a big opening to push Putin out of power by bogging him down in Ukraine, Putin trying to be smart has actually backfired on him because the west are offering no concessions which puts Putin in a difficult spot that he can't really win and I am surprised, I thought Putin was smarter than that but it looks like he's been outsmarted by sleepy Joe lol.
Now I'm not saying it's right what's going on, especially for the people of Ukraine but in the end, Putin is bringing this onto it's self and when the west says Russia will pay a high price if they invade Ukraine, they are not kidding but it's not for the reasons the news is letting on.
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True and if it became a traditional war without nukes, the might of the western economies would wipe the floor with what Russia can do, especially if manufacturing turns to arms and high-tech investment.
We've got to remember that Russia is a pretty weak economy that's around the size of Spain and depend on European countries buying their oil, gas and other natural resources.
A war would basically shut all that down, European countries will get their gas and oil from the world market, Russia would lose billions from that and if push comes to shove and Russia did attack an EU or NATO country, the west would have to respond, otherwise Russia won't stop there which could end up being the start of world war 3 if we are not careful and as Bill Clinton once said, it's the economy stupid, that's where the real power is and it wouldn't take much for western countries to divert that wealth towards manufacturing of arms, that would put Russia at a massive disadvantage on the economic front which spills over on the military front.
The irony is that Putin is backing himself into a corner that he can't really win, if he backs down, he will look weak, especially in Russia as he's got an image of being a hard man, if he doesn't, well the EU and NATO would have to respond otherwise the merits of them would be kinda useless if they don't come to the defence of one of their own.
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@zbigniewp1810 If Russia was supported by China and Iran, the EU would likely be supported by the US and countless other countries, they still have a massive advantage over them because these are modern countries whereas Russia, Iran and China are quite poor and if it came to a race in high-tech and manufacturing, good luck with that because the only reason we use China for manufacturing is because they are cheap and not because they are good.
As for defence spending, so who is the dictator that decides what's enough to spend?, I understand why the US wants others to spend more to take the burden off them, empire building isn't cheap after all but the reality is, Europeans, especially EU countries don't feel the need to spend like the US does, that can change if Russia pushes it's luck lol.
In any case, don't kid yourself in thinking that Russia would attack any modern country, even a small one and especially an EU country, there's a reason why no modern country has attacked another modern country and it's because the damage to both sides would be massive that no one really wins, what we actually get is modern countries taking on countries that can't fight back or poorer countries against another poor country but if any modern country was to get attack, there's a fair chance that it could lead to world war 3 and with the tech we have today, well let's just say, that's one way to solve the population problem lol.
As for the US, yes they likely will get involved, mainly for self-interest as they know that if Russia takes on Ukraine and the west doesn't put it's foot down, Russia likely won't stop there and will take on some easy picking countries to the east of Europe that are not in the EU or NATO, but if Russia did do that, EU countries would beef up it's own armies and likely would push to integrate them in the EU, the irony being that Russia is playing right into the hands of the EU by scaring those eastern European countries that are not in the EU half to death whiles at the same time showing the Europeans in the EU why they need to integrate more, that's the last two things Putin once.
Anyway, problem is for Putin, it's backed himself into a corner he can't win, if he invades Ukraine, the west will have to come to it's aid and be a lot tougher than it's been with Russia already, if Putin backs down, he could look weak in Russia, especially if the west didn't offer him anything which it looks like they won't, Putin has now put himself in a situation that he can't win, still, if he does attack, it would be the major wake-up call the west needs, especially the EU and US when it comes to Russia and China, that's when those countries need to worry because lets be honest, both the EU and US are asleep and see them as a mild threat, that can quickly change.
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