Comments by "Pedja Milosavljevic" (@pedjamilosavljevic6235) on "Will Russia Go Nuclear?" video.

  1. Oh , joy ! Let me start with obvious things - US and GB didn't " gave authorization" to Ukrainians for use of long range weapons to target Russian soil (it is an euphemism for domestic audience consumption) - they launched those weapons (ATACAMs & Storm Shadows) from Ukrainian territory. All the targeting (input and sequencing) , decrypting satelite data for positioning and trajectory (from US and NATO satellites) is done by US , GB military specialists , which have multiple years of training and are using proprietary encrypting/decrypting software , to which Ukrainians don't have access (security reasons) . I doubt that they are anything more than drivers and I heavily suspect that Storm shadow delivery plane is piloted by British pilot with experience. I like your reasoning (not just about this , but about other topics also) but you don't get all the facts , or your interpretation is a bit off. Just to say , I do speak Russian (not as good as English , although , I doubt i would be part of the cast for Shakespeare play) , so I keep track of what is going on on Telegram (both Russians and Ukrainians) and some Russian TV (of course , they cheer for their own , but it is not nearly propagandized as western media and you can hear a difference in opinions). So let's get started... You are right about expanding of NATO , which speaks of colonial western hypocrisy and Putin did talked about that since 2004 and made his famous speech in Munich security conference in 2008. So we come to Ukraine. Ukraine was never a nuclear power , it just had part of Soviet nuclear arsenal in it's territory. Legal continuity of USSR lies with Russia , so they took the nuclear stuff out of Ukraine. Belorus did the same (gave up stuff) , just as the rest of republics which left the federation. Yes , Ukraine is a sweetheart of western hegemon' s since end of WW I , which continued after WW II (last Nazi Banderists surrendered to Soviet army in 1954 , all the time being supported by US and GB ) and they see the Ukraine as a door into the Russia (lots of good stuff there - even Napoleon knew that). Ukraine has a warm sea (US and GB are primarily maritime powers) and a lot of flat land and sort of strategic depth - ideal for parking the troops and material. Other than that , I vividly remember a BBC reportage from 2008 about "worrying growth of Neo-Nazism in Ukraine" , among the youth and their paramilitary training camps. I also remember seeing in that reportage , young girls (8-10 years old) raising arms with Ukro Nazi salute : Slava Ukraini - Slava geroiam (Banderist Nazi salute , from WW II). Since we all know what has happened in 2014 and we all know about second Minsk agreement from 2015 , lets talk about "unprovoked" invasion on Ukraine. NATO trained and equipped Ukrainian strike forces from 2015 regularly (there were some preparations prior that time - more in the intelligence sphere) . Russians (Putin and Lavrov mostly) pleaded , warned and pointed out that they have to react , but it fell on death ears. In February of 2022 , Ukraine had 280 000 strike force parked in Donbass , ready to launch in March 8th , or 9th (i forgot the exact date). After taking Donbass (which would be walk in the park , considering numbers of LDPR forces and their equipment) , their task was to breach Russian border , with some pretenses of "helping Russians to get democracy" or something similar. Putin just beat them to the punch. If you think that it is a fantastic proposition , just remember that everybody said , at the start of conflict , that Russia is just a gas station with nukes , mascaraded as a state and that they were out of munition almost every week - which speaks volumes of state of mind of people who prepared this for well over a decade against Russia (Nuland comes to mind). Even than , Ukrainians and Russians reached an agreement in Istanbul on April 1st 2022 , which was , basically , Minsk II again , just with clause that Ukraine will never join NATO - and than Boris came (sent by someone in Washington). Russians redrew their troops from northern regions as a sign of good will , but , as many American officials said - we have to harm Russia (never mind suffering of millions of Ukrainians with close to one million dead in combat) - so it went on. Of course , public voting to join Russia in four regions was a result of not adhering to the reached agreement. It was never about the territory (accept Crimea - it is a strategic point). Also , Russians have advanced a bit since WW II and they don't do human waves any more , therefore slow and methodical progress. Yes , they can take more territory much faster , but with much greater loses . Anyway , they don't work by western standards , or calendar. Also , everyone says that Putin is dictator. Why ? Russia has presidential democratic system , just like France or US. Mind you , given from what I have heard from other high ranking Russians - he is very moderate and nice and so far , he exercised extreme restraint . About last missile strike on Ukraine (Dnepropetrovsk , or Dnipro). Missile that was used to destroy industrial zone is called Oreshnik (Hazel). It is not a ICBM , although it uses similar , or same rolling canister launch system on 6 axles , like ICBM. It is short to medium range (new one , one of few new systems) missile , carrying 6 warheads (nuclear capable) each with 6 munitions (that is 36 independent final trajectory munitions). It travels with speed of 10 MACH (3,5 km per second). No one has anything to intercept that. I've watched video of its flight over Kazakhstan border - it is impressive , even if I know that at the end of the flight someone will die. I see that this morning UK chief of staff is in Kiev , presumably to collect the rest 38 Storm shadows and bring them home - it's getting dangerous.
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  2.  @BritishLandeur Thanks for response . Very polite response , as one might aspect from an British gentleman - my name (nickname) is as it shows with avatar - Pedja . I do understand your stance about UK doctrine and the rest of it. Mind you , my comments on it aren't personal , it is how things are , regarding this conflict (and others) and UK is very prominent ,let's say "assistant" in various US endeavors abroad. I absolutely agree on Russian military blunders . There is no military in the world that doesn't get "bloody nose" if it wasn't engaged in fight , for years and decades. I do mean proper war , not just bombing and sweeping campaigns , with inferior opponents. Most of those responsible Russian officers are in prisons now , or just plane civilians. But , in three years Russian military became very effective , lean green , killing machine (based on volunteers - professionals , not on conscripts) I don't think that Putin wanted regime change. Yes he was miss informed and you are right about that , but I think that intention was as agreed in Istanbul agreement. Now , Russia has to finance rebuilding and economy of new four regions (not a small proposition). If he wanted that , he could kill most of the officials at any time. I think that Russians like legitimacy very much , therefore , since this is only special military operation , not a war , they stick to it. Regime change in a country where neo nasties are groomed into society and government for best part of three decades isn't so easy - I mean , Americans prepared for it for almost 20 years , before went for it. Yes there are some Nasties in Russia , but mostly in prisons , or in private military companies (now operating outside of Russia). The rest of them went to Ukraine long before invasion and they have/had a couple of units there (kind of separate from regular Ukrainian military). Certainly it is not a state policy in Russia , like in Ukraine. Don't get me wrong , I do feel very sorry for ordinary Ukrainians. They will be left with bunch of dead relatives , friends and , basically , dead county and , practically , with no place to go and start over again(Europe has it's own problems now). I believe that you are too young to remember how it was in Russia in the 1990's. It was much , much worse than previous Soviet era (for ordinary people). What Putin has done for Russia , will echo in history. He could not have done it in 10 years , given the size of the country and the problems he inherited. I have no doubt that his heir is being under consideration for some time now. You just need some consistency to get things done in big countries. It is easy to compare overall situation in Russia 25 years ago and now (and he had to wage a few wars in the meantime - all fueled by most democratic country in the world). Compare that with liberal democracies in the west and see who has better results in last quarter of a century. Btw , Singapore is democracy , but it is one of the harshest dictatorships on the planet - collective dictatorship , though (next to N. Korea , which went for personality cult) and nobody complains - they live like kings there. People want to have good and easy life and it just depends on luck - weather the people in power are good stewards of the country and people or self absorbing , narcissistic , power hungry scumbags. It has nothing to do with political social arrangement of the country - if it's a democracy - great. If it's not and people live well - it is the same. Mind you , I'm not advertising dictatorships , nor do I think that all is bad in the west (at the moment , I strongly dislike the way the things are and where it's headed). All the best! P.S. Almost forgot about main thing - the nukes. I agree with you , accept that I think that Russia may have few more conventional moves (with new doctrine) , before nukes fly. I really don't believe that Russia will put a tactical nuke in Ukraine. More likely in one of the countries that are "assisting" in conflict against Russia. If they choose right country , it may not evoke article 5 , meaning that the rest of NATO bunch will think hard about getting involved directly and/or with nuclear response. Also , it very much depends on timing too , because we may dodge the bullet , if Trump takes the presidency . We'll see.
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