Youtube comments of Neodym (@neodym5809).
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Tariffs are not the main issue that will drive costs. Take medicine: The cost to certify a new drug is significant, no matter the market size. Currently, if a drug is certified in one EU country, it can be sold in all. From next year on, a drug has both to be certified in the EU and UK, costing similar. If it is a drug for a disease only few people get, it might not be worth it to certify it for the UK market, so the drug will not become available.
Take chemicals: to register a chemical, extensive testing and certification is necessary. If it is chemical the UK does not use much, it might not be worth it, so the UK gets cut of this supply as well.
Aviation: every piece of equipment requires certification. UK certification's will no longer be valid in the EU next year, so every product you want to sell in the EU and UK will double in certification costs.
Foods: sanitary and phytosanitary checks will become necessary. These are not tariffs, but expensive, as documentation, experts and labs are required, as well as delays in shipment.
Tariffs are a minor issue compared to mutual recognition of standards.
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@mrsmerily There is a difference between shortages (EU) and critical shortages (UK). The former is having less than optimal, the later is having to few to deliver what is required.
The electricity and gas prices in the UK risen by a bigger percentage than in the EU, due to Brexit. Or look at gas prices, 200% in the EU, 400% in the UK. This extra increase is the Brexit dividend.
Furthermore, Brexit also decreased productivity of drivers due to the loss of cabotage. While pre Brexit, a lorry driver would have delivered goods from Rotterdam to London, taking new goods and driving to Manchester, while than traveling back from Manchester to Brussels, now only 2 trips instead of 3 are allowed. And due to the EU border checks (UK has postponed theirs again...), the last trip may be skipped, too, so only 1 delivery instead of three.
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@donkykon2094
2021
Tesla: 936,172 and 21% share (vs 23%)
SAIC (incl. SAIC-GM-Wuling): 609,730 and 13% share
Volkswagen Group: 451,131 and 10% share (vs 11%)
BYD: 323,143 and 7% share
Hyundai Motor Group: 216,562 and 5% share
21% market share is respectable, but it is in decline. Far from being the BOSS. Considering it is only the EV market, and not the total car market, which changes the picture:
Toyota Motor Corp 10,495,548 (same) +11.8%
2 Volkswagen Group 8,610,100 (same) -5.5%
3 Renault Nissan Mitsubishi Alliance 7,680,014 (same) -1.3%
4 Hyundai Motor Group 6,667,085 +1 +5.0%
5 Stellantis 6,583,269 +1 +5.2%
6 General Motors 6,291,000 -2 -7.9%
7 Honda 4,121,000 (same) -6.5%
8 Ford Motor Company 3,942,000 (same) -5.9%
9 Suzuki 2,763,000 +1 12.9%
10 BMW 2,521,514 +1 +8.5%
Not even top10.
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@suhasrao671985 Problem for Russia is, it cut itself of from Western technology, which was essential for Chinese rise. And China is so far unwilling to provide its own to Russia, out of fear of western sanctions. So Russia would have to build a lot of things from the ground up, which is costly, takes a long time and provides lower quality. Overall, this route will lower Russian living standards compared to status quo ante feb 2022.
Considering that such essential parts like aerospace, railway, gas- and oil industry, car industry, agriculture are dependent on western technology, I do believe that the Russian central bank is right to expect a decline similar to the 1990s.
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@Floweringlotus I will tell you what happens: certain sectors of the UK economy will just disappear. Farming will be the first. Farming is dependent on seasonal labor, hard work, long hours, low wages. You can not increase wages in this sector too much, as who will pay 50 bucks for half a kilo of UK strawberries, if you can buy EU Strawberries for 5 bucks? Furthermore, the workforce lives in the cities, the farms are on the countryside. What Brit will leave his/her job for a couple of weeks, pay extra rent, dont see the family, for such a job?
So farming goes bust. Instead, food will be imported. You can see it already: UK can not, due to a lack of workforce, process its turkeys for Christmas. So UK turkeys get culled and turkeys from France and Poland will get sold to UK consumers. End of UK turkeys.
Pork is next. Germany already waiting to sell its pork to UK.
Are you ready to rely on other nations for UK food supply? Are you ready for UK farmers going bankrupted?
A final question: why does Switzerland both have the highest wages in the world and accepts Freedom of movement?
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Adi Adindas you Said no Country would accept EU jurisdiction in general. Please cite the passage of your initial post referring to a Canada style deal. I gave you examples of countries which did, thereby proving you wrong.
About Canada, Japan, SK: none of these countries can trade by Lorry on a huge scale with the EU, due to geographic distance, therefor loser rules are enough to protect EUs single market integrity. Furthermore, when the EU negotiated with them, their state aid rules as well as any other area of the level playing field were already well established, so the EU could adjust the agreement accordingly. The UK meanwhile is either unable or unwilling to tell the EU its plans in these areas, and as a result, the EU does not know how much UK rules will differ from EU rules, and as a consequence, has to be more careful.
Last but not least: why did the UK agree to follow much stricter Japanese state aid rules, but not EU ones? Where is the logic?
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@dixonhill1108 No. While prices increase, not of the magnitude as in the UK. As both France and Germany actually have gas taverns to store gas in an significant amount, and their main source of electricity isnt gas, unlike UK, they are far less effected.
Furthermore, food prices will not increase much, as both countries can supply themself, while the UK is dependent on imports.
And there are NO shortages whatsoever, petrol and diesel, food, all available.
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@joshbentley2307 Ok, I take your challange (and appretiate it):
UK exports:
It is less than half of Germany. According to statista: Leading export countries worldwide in 2023, Uk is not fourth, but 13th.
Decacorns: UK has 3, Germany has one. In my opinion, rather meaningless in the grad scheme of economics.
"And it became the 3rd country (the other two are the USA and China) to have a tech industry valued over $1 trillion, it’s the tech centre of Europe."
Please elaborate what you mean by tech industry. If you go by "Medium and high-tech industry (% manufacturing value added) - Country Ranking", Germany is 6th with 60%, while UK is 16th with 48%. Considering that Germanys manufacturing base is bigger than UKs, so is its total value.
"And it will outperform Germany in the foreseeable future due to there manufacturing model relying on cheap Russian energy."
Germany`s economic model does only partly relied on Russian energy. Considering that russian gas supply is gone, and Germans economy only stagnated proves this point. It helped, but it was not essential. It takes some adjustment, but Germany`s economic power relies on education, infrastructure and a well developed mid sized industry base.
Feel free to correct me, or clarify if I misunderstood a point of you.
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@markaxworthy2508 What did Cameron demand? Look it up. Not to reform the EU, but more exceptions, more rebates for the UK. And it was not the EU which said no. It were the 27 other nations.
I am really annoyed by this "The EU did" narrative. The EU consists of 27 nations, each of them with their own identity, as strong as the British one. If anything happens in the EU, than because these 27 members found an agreement. This is why the UK left: so used to centralism and London dictate, that the simple thought of nations cooperating as equals was not understood by the UK.
The UK had the best deal of all EU member states: exceptions with Schengen, Euro, and many more, as well as the rebate. But like a spoiled child, it was always crying for more and that the others are unfair.
How would the Dutch premier have explained to his voters why the UK deserves EVEN MORE without any benefit for the Netherlands? How would the German chancellor, the French president?
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Not much due to the German system. The Greens would require a coalition to govern, either CDU, or SPD/FDP. Then, due to the German two chamber system, serious changes would have to pass the Bundesrat, where the 16 governments of the German states decide, only one of them is governed by the Greens. And finally, EU, where a German government would need to convince 26 other nations to agree.
Furthermore, it is already consensus in Germany to work towards a better environment, nothing exclusive to the Greens anymore.
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@hannahg8439 Ok, now it gets interesting. What metric do you use to label a party left? Because that can be confusing.
The classic label of the workers (blue collars) party can not be it, because the Greens never were, and have no intention to become, a workers party.
Another label would be that of progressive, minority rights, all that. In that area, the Greens are most likely labelled as left.
Last, environmental issues. While it is the core of Greens ideology, as it has become mainstream, being a major topic for all parties except the AFD, this is nothing left anymore, at least in German politics.
From a more general standpoint, the Greens have a lot of conservative aspects that appeals to voters. They are a party mostly elected by academics/civil servants, females, middle age (35+) and of high income.
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@francissalaets9721 A vaccination trains your immune system to detect the virus quickly and destroy it before it can multiply in your body. So with a strong immune system and a vaccine, there is little to no risk. The virus gets destroyed early.
If you have a strong immune system but the immune system does not know the virus, the virus will stay undetected for a while. Multiplying in your body and attacking more and more organs (in the case of Covid, usually the lungs). When the immune system then detects the virus, it can go into overdrive and starts to attack the organs, too.
Allergies are a different topic, again. Your body reacts aggressively to certain substances. So if you get jabbed, the immune system attacks the vaccine immediately, going into overdrive. But I would talk to other doctors. As with the selection of different vaccines (Biontech/Pfizer, Moderna, AZ) one might be right for your condition.
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I would go further. Putin is holding blood and soil speeches, copying Germanys excuse for taking Sudetenland, and talks about spitting out anyone who dares to oppose him (in Russia) like a fly. Complement that with the total destruction of any opposition media or voice, the military training in schools by the Russian equivalent of the Hitler Youth (Junarmija) and the pure indoctrination on any level, there is no question that Russia is now fascist. Just apply Umberto Eco`s 14 questions:
The cult of tradition. “One has only to look at the syllabus of every fascist movement to find the major traditionalist thinkers. The Nazi gnosis was nourished by traditionalist, syncretistic, occult elements.”
The rejection of modernism. “The Enlightenment, the Age of Reason, is seen as the beginning of modern depravity. In this sense Ur-Fascism can be defined as irrationalism.”
The cult of action for action’s sake. “Action being beautiful in itself, it must be taken before, or without, any previous reflection. Thinking is a form of emasculation.”
Disagreement is treason. “The critical spirit makes distinctions, and to distinguish is a sign of modernism. In modern culture the scientific community praises disagreement as a way to improve knowledge.”
Fear of difference. “The first appeal of a fascist or prematurely fascist movement is an appeal against the intruders. Thus Ur-Fascism is racist by definition.”
Appeal to social frustration. “One of the most typical features of the historical fascism was the appeal to a frustrated middle class, a class suffering from an economic crisis or feelings of political humiliation, and frightened by the pressure of lower social groups.”
The obsession with a plot. “Thus at the root of the Ur-Fascist psychology there is the obsession with a plot, possibly an international one. The followers must feel besieged.”
The enemy is both strong and weak. “By a continuous shifting of rhetorical focus, the enemies are at the same time too strong and too weak.”
Pacifism is trafficking with the enemy. “For Ur-Fascism there is no struggle for life but, rather, life is lived for struggle.”
Contempt for the weak. “Elitism is a typical aspect of any reactionary ideology.”
Everybody is educated to become a hero. “In Ur-Fascist ideology, heroism is the norm. This cult of heroism is strictly linked with the cult of death.”
Machismo and weaponry. “Machismo implies both disdain for women and intolerance and condemnation of nonstandard sexual habits, from chastity to homosexuality.”
Selective populism. “There is in our future a TV or Internet populism, in which the emotional response of a selected group of citizens can be presented and accepted as the Voice of the People.”
Ur-Fascism speaks Newspeak. “All the Nazi or Fascist schoolbooks made use of an impoverished vocabulary, and an elementary syntax, in order to limit the instruments for complex and critical reasoning.”
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@teargass1849 the Video Said the Military is looking for a F35 replacement because it’s a failure, you say it is just the next generation. Alright, I am not deep enough in the topic to say who is right.
BUT:
You claim the F35 will be cheaper as it will replace lots of different aircrafts, resulting in simpler procedures and less complexity. At first, sounds good. I took the time to check the costs per flight hour, and this argument crumbles. A flight hour of the F35 costs more than three times of an F16, and still 20-30% more than a F15. It costs 4 times more than an A10. How can it be cheaper when it costs several times more to operate than multiple types of aircrafts (my source is Forbes, Aug 16, 2016, by Niall McCarthy). If you have a source explaining while cost per flight hour do not matter, I’m interested.
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I talked to some german women about her. They see her as back to the 50s, with the mindset that a woman has three priorities: Kitchen, church, children (a little more elegant in German, the three Ks, Küche, Kinder, Kirche). on top of that, her position on homosexuality and same sex marriage, areas that are not controversial in the majority of german population, disqualifies her to lead a center party.
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"As of 2019, as many as 2 million people had left Russia since Vladimir Putin became president, and many are entrepreneurs, creatives, and academics, the Atlantic Council, an international-affairs think tank, found."
Russian 'brain drain' of academic, finance, and tech workers 'might be the most important problem' for its economy, experts say
March 6, 2022
Business Insider
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@antonrudenham3259 My bad, it were 7bn:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/uk-gives-up-7bn-windfall-from-european-investment-bank-tq0qskgfc
There will be a custom border in the Irish sea, and Northern Ireland will follow EU regulations, not UK regulations. And regulations are far more important than customs (which is also ironic, as it will be less paperwork to trade from ROI to NI than from NI to rUK).
A worthwhile FTA? Japan, Canada, Singapore, South Korea, Mercusor, Vietnam, more than one. And good luck to the UK to have more FTAs than the EU, because they cover most of the globe already:
https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-trade-map/
What cards does the UK hold? Why would it be, as a smaller entity, be a more interesting trading partner than the EU? As the UK is a service economy, that can not sell its services under WTO or FTA terms.
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@איתןשי I call a party far right that puts Holocaust deniers onto its list so they become parliamentarians (google Gedeon). The AFD was flirting with far right figures under Petry (which costed her the leadership). They have turned worse ever since.
If you really want to go back to the conservative libertarian age of AFD, it is at the beginning with Lucke`s party of the professors. But that is a rather brief period.
Of course the political spectra is a relative one. You might be conservative in one place, a communist in another, and a Nazi in a third (sometimes even at the same place, just depending on the person you ask).
But for me, there are certain attributes that make a party far right: if their central message is hatred towards another group, be it ethnically, religiously or nationally while claiming that they themselfs are are superior, they are usually far right.
Israel politics is a mess I must say. I see a certain lack of common ground between the parties, fringe parties having too much power, overall corruption and mistrust. Which is to be expected in a part of the world under constant threat of violence and war. But I hope with Netanjahu gone, there is now a time to find peace and common ground.
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