Comments by "" (@colby25) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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Just a bit of history about ukraine, pre maidan. 80 odd years of russification has to be taken into account. From stalin times through the soviet era up to 1991. Thats why russian culture/language etc was and still is to a degree, ingrained into ukranian culture. In 1991 ukraine voted 92% to leave the union with russia. All the oblasts and regions voted in favour including crimea and the donbas region. Ukraine then followed a similar route as yeltsins russia with attempts at fast tracking democracy and western style capitalism. The lack of legal accountability though ended up with oligarch corruption in both countries. Putin then took over around 2000 in russia. He, amongst many ex soviet hardliners, never recognised that 1991 vote and so set out to return a form of russian domination on all of its former soviet states that had left during the break up of the ussr.
Putins attempts in ukraine began politically with yanukovych in the elections of 2004. His state funded tv media had begun its propaganda methods, not only in russia, but in all the border areas of its former soviet states, including ukraine. Pro russian olgarchs were also financing and involved in it all too. Yanukovych won the 2004 election but claims of corruption created a massive demonstration in kiev. The orange revolution as it became known then forced a rerun of the election after ukraines highest court ruled that there was indeed electoral corruption. His "poisoned" opponent victor yushchenko winning the rerun comfortably. He was pro west/democracy and in power for 5 years up till 2010. Attempted to join NATO along with georgia, but germany and france vetoed their application as they wanted a more economically friendly relationship with putin instead. He also began preliminary negotiations for ukraine to join the EU.
In 2010 yanukovych won a close run election that was deemed fair by international observers. His 3 years saw the NATO bid scrapped altogether. Increasing oppression of his political opponents. The constitution changed to help that oppression. The jailing of his main political opponent yulia tymoshenko. And the most fateful decision of all to scrap the proposed union with the EU for one with the very country the people voted 92% to leave in 1991.
So not surprisingly the ukranian people werent having any of that so another revolution started late in 2013. This time called the revolution of dignity or maidan.
It began peacefully at first but as the police became more hardline in their approach the numbers demonstrating and the violence grew. Yanukovych, as you would expect from a putin clone, sent in his special police berkut unit to open fire on unarmed demonstrators. 120 died with thousands injured. No way could he survive that bloodbath. He fled, and the folowing morning the duma reformed and voted to strip him of his power and arranged a new election which petro poroshenko later won. The constitution was reinstated and tymoshenko released. Evidence was also found of voting corruption in his abandoned palace casting doubt on his earlier election win.
Since Maidan putin has adopted a much more extreme military approach to achieve that original objective. Culminating in february 22 last year.
Putin is 100% at fault for this conflict! Period!
Heres putin in action again with the minsk 2015 peace agreement.
The 3 (of the 13) points in the minsk agreement putin refused to recognise.
4. To start a dialogue on interim self-government for the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, in accordance with Ukrainian law, and acknowledge their special status by parliamentary resolution.
9. Restoration of full control of the state border by the government of Ukraine.
10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed formations, military equipment and mercenaries.
Plus the biggest peace deal game breaker of course......invading the very nation the peace deasl was with, and with it a UN recognised sovereign nation.
But of course he doesnt recognise them as a sovereign nation. Which is 100% the reason why he and his fascist/nationalist imperialist supporters want to kill democratic ukraine, especially the democratic bit. He wants to renew his love in again with his beloved ussr. Dictators in search of lost empires. Mussolini, hitler and now putin.
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