Comments by "Mortablunt" (@Mortablunt) on "Task & Purpose"
channel.
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TL;DW: No.
The Wunderwaffen obsession is unhealthy and unrealistic. Saint Javelin turned out to be hype, Saint Bayraktar could only do so much, now it's Saint Seven's turn to be the subject of toasts and memes for about 5 weeks until it turns out to just be another weapon on the rack.
The M777 without the Excalibur shells AND the FCS doesn't do anything the resident 152mm systems don't do, it just does their jobs but better, and they weren't included in the packages, and the M777 requires all new training and all new logistics for its caliber. Guess what Russia has systematically made a point of destroying since its very opening act? Ukrainian logistics. Russia has made over 3400 strikes on supplies and transportation of Ukraine's military since the start.
Nothing is going to save Ukraine. Its gear was even older and in worse shape than Russia's. Its economy was 6% that of Russia's. The NATO trained troops are wiped out, the reservists are old and fat, they don't even have enough boots and rifles for everyone. Even higher up, Zaluzhny is a very bad general. He fails at basic war 101, like building up ample concentrations before attacks, he fails to seize initiative, he pins his hopes on fortresses where he puts men the Russians can kill at leisure, and so on.
A very frank assessment is this: Russia is gaining land even faster now than at the start, despite Ukraine being at full mobilization and getting so much help. Russia now controls 20% of Ukraine as a whole, 95% of Lugansk and 60% of Donbass. The land corridor to Crimea is established, several of the Natsbats have been so thoroughly devastated as to be dissolved, willing residents are becoming Russian citizens, and soon shall be able to do as they voted for years ago and formally join Russia. What will Ukraine do then? Invade sovereign Russian land and get a fully mobilized Russian response?
Our media and leadership are changing their rhetoric gradually from "Putin cannot be allowed to remain in power!" and "No Ukrainian land shall be surrendered!" to "We need to think of a negotiated settlement" and "Russia is achieving its goals."
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@N330AA Indeed. That explains the lack of commitment for it. Like it or not, about half of Ukrainian available forces had to be held back to defend the (meaningless to true Russian war aims) capital and Harkov, while taking heavy losses, while a great cauldron of Ukrainian forces were encircled around the border. As of weeks ago, the Azov coast was secured, a primary yet unspoken war aim bringing a land link to Crimea, incorporating Lugansk and Donetsk into Russia, and the mouth of the Dneipr River was captured, giving Russia an important strategic hold on the entirety of Ukraine, and a strong geographical defensive line. When you think of it that way, suddenly the plan makes a lot of sense.
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@Ramiel77 Which is weird, the longer this goes on, the more I think the Russians are more competent than they originally displayed. Whoever did the first week of operations should be shot for criminal negligence. However, with real military men in charge since then, the strategy has been reworked into something actually fairly brilliant. Position a significant force near the capital to force the Ukrainians to defend it, meanwhile, storm the Southeast, taking a land bridge to Crimea, and securing the Dneipr river. Advance slowly to spare men and use irregular forces, like Chechens and DNR militias, to preserve your main fighting strength while you dig in to secure the territory against counterattacks. The whole time, use missile and plane strikes to destroy enemy military stores and staging area, and go after their industrial capacity. With the enemy unable to move and rearm properly, encircle their now moribund forces to encircle, besiege, and destroy. Bring in reservists and policemen to do occupation duty to free up your fighters for further combat. It actually sounds quite genius now.
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