Comments by "Peter Jacobsen" (@pjacobsen1000) on "Triggernometry"
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Ā @sleepingtossĀ Yes, Zeihan has said many times that China has overestimated the population. This is based on the Wisconsin researcher Yi FuXian, who has written books with this claim. But there is no real evidence that that should be true.
By 2050, the Chinese work force will be 65% of the population, as opposed to 70% today. In total numbers: 980 m today, 750 m in 2050.
But that is not what Zeihan is saying. He is making two major claims: 1: By 2050, the population will be halved (This is simply not possible, barring natural disasters). 2: By the end of this decade, China will seize to be a functioning state. That is also a ridiculous claim. Worst case, China's economy may be shrinking, but even that is highly unlikely.
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