Comments by "Kristopher Driver" (@paxdriver) on "Do Rate Cuts ACTUALLY Send Stocks Higher?" video.

  1. Several issues here: the currency depreciation from lowering interest rates makes a bigger difference than stock prices priced in said currency. The compounding of both stock volatility and currency volatility is a exponential multiplier in extreme cases, meaning when currency appreciates after acquiring stock even if the dividen goes down the shareholder may see an increase in ROI nevertheless. Another factor forgotten is the circumstances that lead to a rate change, often not the rate changing that is the cause but rather the attenuation of a more sever movement on the horizon, which may sound frivolous to suggest at first until you consider that's literally the only mandate and guidance the fed bases rate changes on: "data-driven forward guidance" is what the name suggests. Rate cuts thus have more to do with the change in trajectory than they do as nominal absolute values. Your data are emphasizing secondary factors, that's why the spreadsheet doesn't seem to illustrate anything meaningful. You ought to be comparing rate of change from moving averages, the time from the signal of raté changes occur before the rate changes, the delay you mentioned is in the order of 3-5 years and its all speculation before then because the rates could change back before the term ends. Long term debt like mortgages is smoothed out for that reason so duration is more important than the date of rate change too. Everything that's actually important is mentioned as cursory and you focus on the one thing that matters the least in that spreadsheet. I'm not sure why oyud even think that type of table would even be useful in the first place lol
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