Comments by "Doncarlo" (@doujinflip) on "What The Taiwanese Think of The Russia-Ukraine War and China | Street Interview" video.

  1. There's one "China", but the PRC isn't necessarily recognized as the sovereign over all of it. If Táiwān decides to declare itself split off, a not insignificant number of places could recognize it especially where the PRC isn't exactly popular among the people.
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  2. No place should bank on the American cavalry to decisively rescue them; even Americans at risk of capture and forced isolation abroad are taught to maintain mental resilience by taking measures to help rescue themselves. What Ukraine is proving is that a determined people can still make effective resistance no matter how overwhelming the invader is on paper, and that popular global support can easily amplify the defender's capabilities.
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  3. A cross-Straits war might be the thing that rallies global support for an independent Táiwān though. The PRC can pressure and protest for this not to happen, but in the places where Mainlanders depart or are ejected they'll just find out the hard way that China isn't as indispensable or missed as much as they want to believe.
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  4. As Ukraine is proving, foreign soldiers aren't necessarily needed if the people themselves have the equipment and information to put up their own fight.
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  5. Táiwān is also in a much better position to defend itself: 100km of open ocean that everyone can monitor ending at a geological fortress with decades of further preparation. The PLA would be looking at a generation or two of effective insurgency even with improvised weapons, which the Chinese people likely won't be able to stomach sending into death their only sons with inexperienced leadership and inadequate equipment. The bigger issue among the Taiwanese lately was morale. HK proved that they won't enjoy "Two Systems" under Běijīng, and Ukraine is proving that it is very possible to fight back. Rumor is the ROC is getting advice on how to politically defeat a modern occupation from the US... who knows a thing or three having spent 20 years on the wrong end of an IED.
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