Comments by "Fredinno" (@innosam123) on "VisualPolitik EN" channel.

  1. “The biggest Asian Bubble in history?” China: Are you challenging me?
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  2.  @lie01234  Dunno, how much cash can you dump into an economy before the economy just dies from the imbalances? That’s one of the big economic questions. China has dumped trillions into the system every time something looks like it’s going to go bad. This was before COVID. Almost every other central bank eventually gives up and at least lets a partial correction happen in order to relieve the pressure. If you don’t... well, the last time that happened was the 1997 crisis, and it was not pretty- the 2008 crisis was tame compared to the 1997 Asian crisis or 1991 Japan crisis. Considering there are several high-profile SOE defaults occurring, there is reason to believe the end has already begun. It’s not that I even want this. A crash in China would trigger another global recession right after the global economy is in a weak state after COVID. And the primary way the CCP takes attention away from the economy is by lashing out against the rest of the world. Not a great combination.
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  3.  @lie01234  Nope, bubbles can only be determined with certainty after a collapse, but exist before a collapse. Most post-COVID economic production has been inventory builds and investment due to weak export orders: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-20/how-an-ordinary-disaster-is-flooding-china-s-covid-turnaround The price-wage ratio of Chinese real estate is reaching the levels of the largest RE bubbles in history while the process of urbanization in China is nearing its conclusion:https://talkmarkets.com/content/global-markets/why-the-fate-of-the-world-economy-is-in-the-hands-of-chinas-housing-bubble?post=127081&page=2 https://ghovexx.blogspot.com/2017/03/the-fate-of-world-economy-is-in-hands.html
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  4. A lot of African Islands were populated originally partially or fully by non-Africans.
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  5. Chinese weapons and infantry quality is also generally viewed as inferior, however. This is part of the reason eg. nominal prices for GDP are preferred over PPP. PPP tends to overestimate the abilities of poorer nations.
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  6. No. She’s the only person able to guarantee Trump gets the popular vote in 2024. 😂
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  7. Israel has a plan to use the desalinated water to refill the Sea of Galilee and to build another tunnel from the sea to refill the Dead Sea (which is evaporating away.)
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  8. This is also what Canada did- maintaining high immigration levels by focusing on more professional immigrants. That was until the housing crisis, decreasing immigrant quality (more refugees and international students), and the stagnating economy turned Canadians against Trudeau’s ever-increasing immigration targets. This also explains why the UK wants to stop illegal immigration. It’s as much the number as the composition.
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  9. And Canada.
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  10. Umm no. Burundi is horrifically poor. 52% of the Children under 5 are stunted due to malnutrition. Its poverty rate is double that of Rwanda.
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  11.  @macroxela  The Soviets also didn’t survive opening up. It’s a difficult balance. They also have another factor: China. If Kim opens too much to the West, you think Xi’s going to be happy?
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  12. Sanchit Kabra Well, say that again when Bangladesh is underwater....
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  13. Gao XiangShuai Dude, just because EVERY foreign ethnic group that lives in China isn’t revolting is a stupid argument to make. The Koreans don’t revolt because they’re more closely tied to Chinese culture than the ‘problematic’ ethnic groups, which is the problem. Mind you, Xi is also trying to sinicize the Hui by forcing them to give up Islam. However, historically, China has given the Hui and Koreans more freedom to do what they want. Considering that’s changing for the Hui, don’t be surprised if the Hui suddenly decide to become ‘problematic’. People don’t want their own country if they get what they want under the nation’s banner (in this case, freedom of culture and religion). Big shocker, I know. China never gave any of the Mongolians, Uygurs, or Tibetans a choice or vote to stay. Stop attaching moral equivalence to the West. The US Civil War was fought over Slavery. The war also did not start until the confederates decided to attack US federal property, which was definitely illegal, even if the constitution allowed for separation of states and self-determination- Federal property is in a state, but it does not belong to the state.
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  14.  @dustintacohands1107 Trump never said he’d stop giving aid to Ukraine, the dude has literally no coherent policy on the issue.
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  15.  @fabiandonvil But Lukashenko and Proghoizin have common objectives… for now.
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  16. Isn’t the US considering Hong Kong as basically legally China now? Which basically means that China’s stocks are being listed on China’s stock exchanges and being isolated from the rest of the world.
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  17. They should have stayed as part of the UK…
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  18. Yeah, it’s not going to work. Other than the obvious issue of lack of land, Macau is effectively legally China at this point, and would likely fall under similar regulations as Hong Kong and China if it made into a financial district. Companies aren’t going to move to Macau just because the people there are less rowdy. They may as well move to Shanghai, and make use of its more developed institutions.
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  19. Korea is like Belgium. They have no choice, geography does not pay a good hand, and trying to stay neutral is only going to get your ass fucked. Hard. Belgium tried to stay neutral in WW2, and all it did was make it easier for the Nazis to take over France.
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  20.  @jamestajiri58  Note the IEA projected nuclear to be growing much faster than it is now. Nuclear is slow because it’s saddled with a million regulations and low institutional knowledge. Solar and Wind tech have also been dumped onto the market by the Chinese for cheap.
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  21.  @ArawnOfAnnwn  1. Afghanistan has the worst possible terrain to establish centralized control over. 2. The original mission in Afghanistan was antiterrorism- the issue was massive mission creep during W Bush. Antiterrorism meant preventing the country from being used as a terrorist hotbed. Biden withdrew when the US had about as many troops there as a large US military base and no casualties (being mostly a support role). For all effective purposes, the war had ended sometime between 2014 and 2020 - at least from the US’ point of view. From the original goal of the war, the US won. The US successfully ‘Vietnamized’ Afghanistan. Until one senile dude thought it was a good idea to give it all up for some brownie points. 3. No one in the US approved of Biden’s withdrawal. 4. Losing a friendly government that held overlordship over mountainous desert isn’t really a big deal on the grand picture. It also assumes the Taliban don’t themselves face another US-friendly uprising, which is what happened last time around. 5. They killed people and established an objectively better and less brutal government. At least it actually brought good to the world. Xinjiang is forced assimilation. Unless you believe the Han race is superior to all races, there’s not much benefit to that.
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  22.  @user-DongJ The problem is that BRICS has so far been able to do fuck all, like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. It’s too diverse. NATO only formed because of the Soviets and the Cold War and the destruction of Europe. What do Brazil, India, and South Africa really have in common? Some of them despise each other, and are closer allies to the US than to each other. The worst case is China - India, which usually scuppers any action (India does not trust China.)
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  23.  @ada6220  Uhh no. Turkey isn’t connected to Kazakhstan. Also, Turkey is culturally seperate from Central Asia. It would go about as well as Russia annexing Central Asia, except without the Geography to support it.
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  24.  @ArawnOfAnnwn  Which poll does China score higher?
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  25. Uryendel The thing with tax evasion and money laundering is that the methods are always changing. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Economics Explained Video would become outdated in 2-3 years because just by shining a light on the method, the people doing it have almost certainly started to move on and use different methods as authorities realize what’s going on and crack down on it. Also, it’s not the reason Fine Art has become so valuable in the first place. Fine Art has been absurdly expensive for centuries as a store of wealth. The tax evasion schemes may, however, explain the current run-up in price.
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  26.  @educateyourself3872  The US also gave up all support operations in Afghanistan, which basically crippled the Afghan army.
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  27. Divij Shah No one has Breeder Reactors yet, and likely no one will before we get good energy storage via fuel cells. People are too scared to dump money into nuclear- except maybe China. But they’re not great at R&D.
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  28.  @Royhkz  Theoretically, you could build a submarine pipeline from Portugal to France, and one to Mauritania. However, this would cost an arm and a leg, and doesn’t likely make economic sense. Even Greece has better chances of becoming a transit hub.
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  29. Biden started his presidency by pissing off the Canadian Government by cancelling Keystone XL without even asking for their input. :/ And truth be told, most Americans don’t want multilateralism. Biden is limited in what he can do without losing office, especially given the Democrats have a very precarious majority- and they seem to be more interested in impeaching Trump than anything else right now.
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  30. He did say that though. No taxes in the Freeport and such.
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  31.  @amazonwarrior7126  French Guiana has over 3x Guyana’s or Suriname’s GDP per capita and a much more protected environment.
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  32. Compared to their other major colony, Korea, Taiwan was pretty calm.
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  33.  @ericsaxon5736  lol, sorry.
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  34. Vancouver: “Ah shit, here we go again...”
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  35. Hargobind Singh Shan Visualpolitik actually showed a graph in this video that showed that Vancouver and Sydney are actually low adjusted to income. Which I guess is the reason for the focus on South Korea.
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  36. The issue is that the Solomons are fare enough away from China that a military base here is difficult to supply ships to.
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  37. Moon was one of the few S. Korean ‘progressives’ out there, and this simply didn’t work at all. It’s Reagan after Carter.
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  38.  @moshoodbakare1210  Uh, no. Colonial rights were based on right of occupation, not exploration. Anyways, Ceuta and Melilla were handed over as a result of wars causing the territory to be ceded as well, like Gibraltar. My point is that Morocco is claiming Ceuta and Melilla based off… well mostly proximity (like Argentina with the Falklands). Not even the UN (very anxious for decolonization of even territories with no desire for independence, like the Falklands) considers those areas ‘non-self governing’.
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  39. I guess Gibraltar isn’t British then because it’s not on the British Isles? Are the Falklands supposed to be part of Argentina due to distance?
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  40.  @gorge2786  Yes, because Chinese Companies destroyed it. Steel is heavy- it’s generally difficult to make it very far from where it’s consumed and still be profitable... unless, of course, you’re being subsidized by the government.
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  41.  @viper8177  I think Epic will lose because Apple does not have a monopolistic share of the smartphone app industry, but only has one on Apple devices. Arguing Monopoly or Monopsony is kind of hard. Also, Epic is not a very good leader for this, since it’s largely owned by the Chinese company Tencent. I don’t see a reason Congress would be kind on Epic here. Hell, Trump could announce a ban on Tencent software tomorrow and Epic would be in deep shit.
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  42. This wouldn’t be so much a problem if the DOD cut their DEI initiatives 😂!
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  43.  @peacelover2008 Yes, the Chinese can produce a ton of ships that can’t actually fight the US fleets because they’re out of range.
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  44. Botswana had its institutions survive under British Rule, while Rhodesia/Zimbabwe was a settler colony whose elite was mostly white. When they were all kicked out, shit started to hit the fan quick.
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  45. No, it’s a correct term, China has claimed Australia since Ancient times. :P
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  46.  @mysteriousDSF  Yeah, 'some people like it'. My point is that Burundi's economy sucks. That's an undeniable fact. Also, people die from lack of running water or internet. :P
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  47.  @mysteriousDSF  True, but you also don’t have internet or running water.
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  48.  @xDomglmao  They’re spending money, but not adding value via their labour. So prices for everything increase, especially housing.
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  49.  @andrewmckenzie292  The Russians could barely access the Far East, and their navy was run by imbeciles.
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  50.  @erikrungemadsen2081  Why? They can’t just reposition towards Asia?
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