Comments by "Fredinno" (@innosam123) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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@cwx8 Should I call the, “Indians?” BC is weird in NA. It’s the only place other than Latin America where the Natives are the ethnic majority in much of the rural countryside. In terms of total population, Whites and Asians dominate, but most of them live in the cities or smaller towns. Also, no treaty like the numbered treaties were ever signed.
Hence, building a pipeline in undeveloped BC is…problematic.
Kitimat is also at the end of a long, winding inlet that is a magnet for ship crashes. This is why Prince Rupert became the primary port in the area, despite being further away- it’s safer (in theory, though many ships still use the inlets (eg. Gardner Canal) to get to Prince Rupert from the South, like passenger ships, mostly because this protects them from the waves. Oil and Gas tankers would go straight out to sea though, so this is a moot point.)
Many pipeline companies have decided to build to Kitimat because it’s the shortest (ie. cheapest) route to the sea from the oil and gas fields in Northern BC and Alberta (also, land is cheaper than in the Lower Mainland, lowering construction costs.)
It has been proven that’s probably a stupid-ass plan with CGL, even if they get government support (the Natives are actively destroying construction.) The Fortis BC Delta LNG port expansion will process comparable additional amounts of LNG to CGL, and has gone comparatively smoothly.
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@ryankuypers1819 Note that only Corporate and Govnt. debt are elevated above 2008 levels to GDP. Household Debt, for example, has remained below 80% of GDP since 08, including during COVID.
Corporate Debt to GDP spiked during COVID, and is not back to 2008 (and Y2K bust) levels.
Also, last quarter GDP fell by 0.9%, lower than the 1.6% drop in Q1. This is comparable to the trajectory of the US economy during the dot-com bust, which was a ‘soft landing recession, with the US economy only shrinking around 1% quarterly.
GDP may drop below the 1% quarterly level, but only if the Fed raises rates faster than the market has in its forecast.
Aka. A recession beyond that caused by inflation and rate increases may occur, but will likely not be disastrous.
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@advisorynotice But it was Russia that held the Germans off in the critical years of 1941-1943. Proportionally, Ukraine lost the most, but mostly because it was occupied by the Germans and a battleground in the East for half of the war. The situation simply isn’t comparable.
Russia (not really Central Asia - even Kazakhstan was more agricultural than the Slavic parts of the Soviet Union) had to pick up the pieces after losing Belarus, the Baltics, and Ukraine. At the time, that was over 1/3rd of the Russian economy.
Also, Kazakhs ended up becoming a minority in their own country as a result of the push of industry and agriculture to the region. The people actually working in the factories sent East were Russians, not Kazakhs. And of those, most of the industry went to the Russian-dominated North Kazakhstan, not the Turkic South.
Lend Lease played a huge role- but it were not Americans pushing the Germans out of Kursk. Even if you assume offensive operations would have been impossible without lend-lease due to a lack of trucks, aviation fuel, and ammo, in 1943, 4/5ths of all German divisions were in the East. Only in 1944 did the Western Front become a serious priority in terms of numbers for the Germans- and the most elite formations were also in the East.
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