Comments by "Fredinno" (@innosam123) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics"
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@cwx8 Should I call the, “Indians?” BC is weird in NA. It’s the only place other than Latin America where the Natives are the ethnic majority in much of the rural countryside. In terms of total population, Whites and Asians dominate, but most of them live in the cities or smaller towns. Also, no treaty like the numbered treaties were ever signed.
Hence, building a pipeline in undeveloped BC is…problematic.
Kitimat is also at the end of a long, winding inlet that is a magnet for ship crashes. This is why Prince Rupert became the primary port in the area, despite being further away- it’s safer (in theory, though many ships still use the inlets (eg. Gardner Canal) to get to Prince Rupert from the South, like passenger ships, mostly because this protects them from the waves. Oil and Gas tankers would go straight out to sea though, so this is a moot point.)
Many pipeline companies have decided to build to Kitimat because it’s the shortest (ie. cheapest) route to the sea from the oil and gas fields in Northern BC and Alberta (also, land is cheaper than in the Lower Mainland, lowering construction costs.)
It has been proven that’s probably a stupid-ass plan with CGL, even if they get government support (the Natives are actively destroying construction.) The Fortis BC Delta LNG port expansion will process comparable additional amounts of LNG to CGL, and has gone comparatively smoothly.
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@ryankuypers1819 Note that only Corporate and Govnt. debt are elevated above 2008 levels to GDP. Household Debt, for example, has remained below 80% of GDP since 08, including during COVID.
Corporate Debt to GDP spiked during COVID, and is not back to 2008 (and Y2K bust) levels.
Also, last quarter GDP fell by 0.9%, lower than the 1.6% drop in Q1. This is comparable to the trajectory of the US economy during the dot-com bust, which was a ‘soft landing recession, with the US economy only shrinking around 1% quarterly.
GDP may drop below the 1% quarterly level, but only if the Fed raises rates faster than the market has in its forecast.
Aka. A recession beyond that caused by inflation and rate increases may occur, but will likely not be disastrous.
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