Comments by "cloudpoint" (@cloudpoint0) on "Will Brazil's homegrown COVID vaccine end Bolsonaro's presidency? | DW News" video.

  1. 1.7 million cases and 50 thousand deaths in a tropical country that should be almost immune to a temperate zone virus isn’t exactly a great record.
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  2.  @muzikkification  Seasonal viruses like dry cool climates and chilled nasal passages, plus a people who stay indoors and close together a fair amount of the time. The January climate of Wuhan is well suited to a seasonal virus. The Wuhan average daily temperature fluctuates between 8°C and 0°C and it snows occasionally. A seasonal virus does not like hot humid climates where people live outdoors much of the time, since it cannot spread well in these conditions. Most of the tropical countries have escaped the pandemic. It can still spread but it takes some gross incompetence on the part of authorities to allow it to happen. I studied university level virology but it is not my field.
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  3.  @thomasgrabkowski8283  It snows in southern Brazil. And the interior is dry if not cold. The cases in Brazil seem to surge each April-May as they cool down and dry out. But climate is not the only factor. This virus likes dense slum-living too. And all of Brazil is governed by grossly incompetent authorities starting at the top (like the U.S. was). Maybe it was "just a little flu" in the beginning but ignoring it allowed 92 variants of coronavirus to arise in Brazil including the very nasty P.1 variant. Bolsonaro says about Brazil’s tireless efforts against the pandemic that “we are an example to the world”. A bad example. But their tropical climate probably helped keep cases well-below that of the U.S. despite similar incompetence.
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  4.  @muzikkification  I’m not an expert but I think tropical places are more conducive to vector borne viruses. Mosquitos are a top vector. There are assorted waterborne river viruses too. Ebola seems to be tropical, Africa only, but it is passed by contacting body fluids of an infected host so it probably relates to being in close proximity to another species that carries it (fruit bats?). People infected with Ebola aren't contagious unless they have symptoms. HIV is blood-to-blood transferred and happens in any climate. It got its start in Africa too, from chimps we think. At this point I’ve studied SARS-CoV-2 more than other viruses.
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  5. ​ @juaralampung6671  Indonesia is more competent than Brazil. Almost everywhere is. Brazil is a low bar that’s easy to beat. India is almost a continent. The north is temperate and is deluged by virus cases (see also Nepal). The south is tropical and is almost unaffected by the virus except for people traveling from the north to the south. India has an excellent medical system going for it too, at least until it broke in the north. I’m not sure if Indonesia is more competent than south India. But I’d say being a 100% tropical played the biggest factor in Indonesia’s success, like south India. Don’t forget that India had taken strong measures to combat the virus over the last year and was declaring the virus beaten by March 2021. Then they were drowning in virus a month later. It just takes the right spark and the right variant to completely change the story, even in a tropical country. We are seeing that shift happening in Taiwan, Philippines and SE Asia now where vaccination rates are low.
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  6.  @kalomboC  Indonesia? You likely miscalculated. How can your 0.006% infection rate be less than your 0.03% mortality rate? People are dying for no reason? First, how would you know the number of infections with a ridiculously low 60,151 tests per million in a country of 276 million? This test number should be close to 1 million per million. At least test every second person. Otherwise most infected people are just quietly recovering from COVID-19 at home or they are asymptomatic, and either way, are not being counted. Second, 1.8M cases and 50,000 deaths speak for themselves, terrible numbers for a tropical country that should be almost free from COVID-19. Seasonal respiratory viruses don’t spread well in a year-round hot humid tropical climate, or during the hot humid summer phase of a temperate climate. Using 276 million population, Indonesia has a population infection rate (PIR) of 0.65% but this rate is largely unknown without enough tests. Treat this percentage as a minimum or a starting value. Similarly the infection fatality rate (IFR) is unknown without knowing the true number of infections but it is usually about five times lower than the known CFR value below, so maybe it’s around 0.55%. However, this IFR is either wrong or it indicates that a PIR of 0.65% is far too low unless almost every infected person is dying, which is obviously not true. Indonesia’s population fatality rate (PFR) is clearly 0.018%. This rate is not fixed and depends on how long since the pandemic had its first serious wave in your country (people keep dying over time). Indonesia’s first serious wave didn’t really happen until late January 2021, almost a year after Europe, so welcome to the pandemic. Wait for a while and this rate will grow. And Indonesia has a case fatality rate (CFR) of 2.77%, which is significantly higher than most countries. My miserable country has a much better CFR than Indonesia, it is 1.85%, but its PIR is 3.62% after 14 months of pandemic, and it has a PFR of 0.067% (both are stable now). Ever more miserable India is better off than both Indonesia and my country with a CFR of 1.17% (if we trust India’s death reports), and a PIR of 2.01%, and a PFR of 0.024%. India, Taiwan, Cambodia, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam all thought they had escaped the pandemic in March. Now in May all these places are in lockdown for the first time with an exponential growth in cases, or they should be in lockdown. Malaysia is in the same pickle as Indonesia, thinking the pandemic ended in February after one wave. That was just a teaser. The serious pandemic is heading south. Indonesia and Malaysia seem to be next in line for a massive COVID-19 wave like the countries just to the north now. PNG is chasing Indonesia from the east too. Incidentally, New Zealand's truly excellent numbers: CFR 0.97% PFR 0.0005% PIR 0.05% IFR 0.19%
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  7.  @kalomboC  0.03% is a long way from the correct value of 2.77% (50262 deaths / 1809926 cases). You have no idea of the true number of infections, you just know the confirmed cases. Even if the true number of infections is say 5 times higher than the confirmed cases, you are still far off the mark. 0.03% needs an absolutely massive number of infected in the denominator to be correct for the reported deaths of 50262. It needs a number like 167M, or more than half the country needs to be infected. I don't think Indonesia is in as bad shape as your number indicates. The 0.006% figure doesn't align with anything reported anywhere. It means 16,500 people, and no such number is associated with Indonesia and COVID-19. People on the internet make up all sorts of things so I show my work and I check theirs if they do, which they don't usually.
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  8.  @kalomboC  Hmmm, Thomas makes a "good point" when he agrees with me but I have my "head in the clouds" ??? Your inconsistent head is apparently buried in wet beach sand.
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