Comments by "Ash Roskell" (@ashroskell) on "Is Zelensky's gamble paying off" video.

  1. This Kursk incursion mission has multiple objectives; diplomatic, logistical, psychological, journalistic even and, of course, addressing the practical matter of defeating an illegal, terroristic, mafia style theft operation and invasion. I agree with your guess that, if something big happens in Moscow or St Petersburg, “it will be fast.” The quality of life has diminished in Russia, even in the metropolitan centres, while money is getting more expensive and resources growing scarce. When the wheel turns in Russia, it is always sudden and, apparently, out of a clear blue sky. The Russian revolution set a precedent that was, apparently, set in stone and has repeated itself multiple times over the last century or so. And it is the nature of the state apparatus that makes it so. The death of Stalin caused an upheaval because no one knew how to cope or what to do (I cannot recommend Armando Iannucci’s movie about that enough, btw) and then Nikita Khrushchev was suddenly deposed after losing his game of nuclear chicken with the Americans. The fall of communism came out of that same clear blue sky so far as the west was concerned. Anyone who says they saw that coming is misremembering or lying to you. Then there was an attempted counter revolution by the old guard (which people barely remember these days) during which the Kremlin was besieged by tanks and from which emerged the figure of an apparent, “hero,” Boris Yeltsin, who turned out to be more of the same but without the restraints of communist doctrine to act as guard rails against his particular brand of debauchery and gangsterism. The Wagner revolt was certainly not predicted by Putin, as was made so abundantly clear by the fact that there were no defences between Wagner and Moscow when they came barrelling up the motor way with, as you mentioned, the popular cheers of the people of Rostov at their backs. But that fell apart due to Prighozin’s allies backing out at the last moment. That was one time when Putin’s positioning of people into senior posts for their loyalty, not their ability, paid off. Yet, what all of these events in Russian history have in common is, when it happens, it happens fast and, often, out of a clear blue sky. So, settle in, buy some popcorn and enjoy the End Of Putin Show while it lasts. Look away from your screens for too long and you may miss a revolution?
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