Comments by "Andre Falksmen" (@andrefalksmen1264) on "Asianometry"
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@100c0c yeah, that would be a nice thought, unfortunately it's not looking that way.
I am an economist, I can come to the data, there's no country in the world besides China which is headed on course to have a significant impact. Since the 1990s there are only three countries which have been on track to enter the first world ranks.
The first, is obviously china, the other two are actually moving faster, but they are very small, that is Kazakhstan and azerbaijan. They're combined population is smaller than beijing.
When we look around the world, we see a West deep in Decline, with an aging population, unfunded social welfare obligations, stagnant socio political structures which require structural adjustment which is not politically feasible, and current account deficits.
Germany, the last of the western Nations to hold out as an industrial producer, has sacrificed itself to the American delusion of defeating Putin in ukraine.
When we look outside the west, the situation does not look promising. Obviously South Korea will continue to hold its own. Beyond that, there are no countries that are making the economic, structural, or political reforms, to set themselves up for development. India is a vain hope for those who foolishly think there is an alternative to china. Indonesia could be a force, but I don't see the Indonesians disciplined enough to climb the value chain with their natural resources. The Turks, long before erdogan, won't give up their love of Keynesian economics and constant inflationary policies.
To whom do you turn, there's no one!
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Japan is a primary example of the false narrative of "comparative advantage" used by the West to discourage developing countries from pursuing industrialization. While comparative advantage is real, the specific advantage may vary, is not innate and can be created. So, often Western Nations will tell third world Nations that they should focus on agriculture and forget about manufacturing because they have no capital, or past experience, or natural resource. Japan, just like taiwan, singapore, and South korea, broke into the critical area of heavy industry, steel manufacturing, even though all of the prerequisite materials had to be imported and remained cost-competitive by diligently building up their capital, knowledge-based, and efficiency. While, the West will often deny it today, at the start of the industrialization of the East Asian tigers, there were predictions of dismal failure. Today, We are told that Koreans are especially intelligent, but that was not their position in 1961 at the start of the heavy chemical and industrial drive. Park Chung he said if he had listened to the experts "he would have done nothing".
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@greenl7661 again, you clearly know nothing about economics. Not even the most basics, you're just repeating pop culture talking points. So as a real Economist let me educate you.
US Dollars position as a world Reserve currency is absolutely a legacy of the Bretton Woods system, at the time the US represented the largest portion of trade in the Free World and thus had a right to hold the reserve currency position. That is no longer the truth, commodity, oil for most amongst them, prices currently being priced in US dollars play a major role and US dollar Reserve status, but heavy-handed use of us sanctions is causing that situation to rapidly deteriorate. The largest trading nation in the world today is china, the US is simply a massive consumer of world goods, parasite made possible by printing money.
After the seizure of Russia's foreign reserves there is already massive sell-off of dollar Holdings by central banks all over the world, we need only look at the most recent reports and there is already plans underway to create an alternative to Swift that doesn't involve clearing funds in the us. As someone who actually works in such a field, and not an armchair observer, I can tell you that financial institutions around the world will be racing to that new system do not be subject to us sanctions, us laws, or other impediments to global trade created by the United states.
With regard to how foreign countries recycle their US dollar balances from America's parasitic consumption of other people's productivity while only supplying pieces of paper in exchange, in the past, they have purchased US equities, Treasury bonds, and even sometimes hard assets, but for the most part all they got were more pieces of paper and exchange for the real Goods Americans consumed. American Reserve Monopoly and paper Printing has allowed all Americans to live far beyond their means, productivity, and represents theft from the entire world. Every American is effectively guilty, not just the top 1%, but every American who earns us dollars.
As for the rest of your nonsense, about the choice of Reserve currency, American safety, Etc nonsense. The position of the world Reserve currency is not one which is held because other countries trust or like that country, it is merely a factor of production and consumption, of global trade. America's holding on to a legacy position, just like that of Great Britain and just like Great Britain prior to the end of the Sterling block, there may be some Nations who would like the United States to maintain the reserve currency position, but the economic reality is something quite different and your nonsense jingoistic americanisms will not save America from economic reality.
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@madensmith7014 if you're aware of the state of the United states, it is unlikely that we will be in a multipolar world for very long. The world is not going to be divided in half, the Chinese have displaced the United States as the primary manufacturing nation, the primary trading nation, the world's largest consumer of commodities, the largest supplier of finished consumer goods, the world's largest supplier of producer goods. The declining situation the west, combined with the precarious finances of the West means that any long-term capital investment and innovation in the world will be coming out of China. Even here, I have my fears, because China is plague with an aging population like the west. However, alas there are no countries with growth growing economies, toward the trajectory of full scale first world development, and a young/growing population.
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@wei270 this is all quite true, I studied economics, but I work in finance. Not as much of a change, but I saw many people from the stem Fields move into management and finance.
However, this change, which many Neo Marxist academics mistakenly call "late stage capitalism" actually a result of a stagnant system in need of structural adjustment, but structural adjustment cannot be achieved because it is not politically feasible.
First off you don't have real savings, so without any real savings you try to Garner growth through quantitative easing, but even when you print the money, there's no place you can invest the money without disrupting a displacing industries, which is not politically expedient, so it goes into existing assets, creating the asset bubbles we have seen since the 1960s, where the average person in the Western World can't even afford a home and the largest metropolitan areas of their country.
If you want to be in the flow of the money, you've got to go where it's flowing, which isn't too existing assets, the financial sector. If you're a civil engineering major, you could do all right, but in the Western World there are quite a bit of barriers to real growth that requires construction, better take your math skills get an mba, and work for a real estate private equity fund.
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@Curt_Sampson I see you also suffer from the same delusion. If Putin had wanted a quick and easy victory, he would have repeated what Americans do and boomed Ukraine to the ground and occupied the rubble. Instead, he has been willing to fight a war of attrition, grinding the ukrainians down and depleting their military supplies, all in a bid to minimize civilian casualties and destruction of infrastructure. Personally I would not have gone that route, whether I believe these people are my brothers are not, try to deserve their fate, and I would have leveled Ukraine to the ground. Either way, Ukraine has no way to win this war, they are outgun in every capacity by Russia, they exist merely by Russian restraint. The war will be over soon and Russia will have its victory.
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@Spacedog79 I would agree with most of that. However I would disagree about the financial sector controlling the political landscape, the West has always been a plutocracy, and that was for the best. However, that plutocracy was made up of men who owned businesses that produced real things, sure the financial interest was always represented, industry requires quite a bit of capital, but that Capital financed real production. Over the last 70 years, the West has become more democratic we see this in the United States with the introduction of the primary system, whereas before party bosses appointed the candidates representing each party in an election. We see the same in europe, with more Grassroots organization of the masses and they said selection of candidates, all of this has made for a messy and disruptive political sphere. As we learned from the 1930s, unbridled democracy in the west leads to populous fascism, to the left or to the right it doesn't matter, the masses are easily pimped by those promising free things and retribution.
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@rotinoma what China has is a massive amount of capital, willpower, and a huge domestic market. China is looking to recreate the entire semiconductor supply chain within its borders, both for security and economic reasons, and will succeed in doing so. There are a number of additional factors that will determine whether or not Chinese production will undercut the rest of the global marketplace, you must remember that China is as large in population as the the entire developed Western world combined, I regard Latin America as Western but underdeveloped, so that is a possibility. The existing supply chain could continue to exist to supply South Korea and japan, and you could even have a situation where manufacturers use Chinese Source chips for products destined for the Chinese market and countries friendly to china, while using non Chinese Source chips for Western countries and countries antagonistic to China. However if this proves to be a major price disadvantage, the lower cost for advanced technology rebounds to China's benefit.
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@thealienrobotanthropologist okay, let's drop the conspiratorial populous cloak.
The Western Elites are first and foremost western, and proud chauvinist, they don't hate their countrymen, they indulge them, and that is the problem. The Western Elites have bent over backward to accommodate their mass, and that is why they are in the trouble they are in. After World War ii, Western workers were given extremely indulgent pay and benefits packages, far beyond anything that could be supported by the productivity of the workforce. Hence, globalization is a response to try to prop up living standards Beyond productivity, by sourcing production from lower cost countries. All of this is made possible by artificially high value of Western currencies relative to their non-western manufacturing peers. Because global trade is priced in us dollars, will support my commodities, and the US will support the currencies of other Western countries, non-western manufacturing countries are forced to devalue their currencies, propping up Western living standards, in order to be competitive.
What are the bloated balance sheets about, what are the deficits, and the debt about, it is social welfare spending, it is the government employee, it is the free social services, all these things are for the masses, not the elite. Sure the Western Elite have made money as they can from globalization, from the asset price bubble, but the insolvency in Western economies comes from indulging the masses, not the elite. The lack of savings, the welfare benefits, the wages of a productivity, the demands of the unions, the lack of applicable job skills, these are all choices of the masses not of the elite.
When we speak of a multipolar world, we are speaking of a world in which there are more than three nations that can hold their own economically and technologically, and that is not likely to happen sure you can close your doors, but that does not mean that you will have the domestic savings, talent, or willpower to be a manufacturing and technological powerhouse on your own, and without that you will not have the economic gravity to be a pole in a multipolar world.
The increase hostility toward China is the growing realization and the part of the Elites in the west that China is going to displace them because they cannot and will not discipline their mass. The Chinese Elite have no problem whipping the mass of China into shape. The Chinese have domestic savings, they have high productivity, wages in line with productivity, and real investment on hampered by lobbying and interest groups. The West has thought it could curtel China's Advance by controlling the supply of natural resources, largely by destabilizing africa, but Russia stands prepared to supply China with all of the natural resources that it desires. With an alliance between Russia and china, and China's own internal discipline and focus, the Western Elites have no ability to stop the growth of china. And it is culturally, politically, and economically impossible to revive the fortunes of the West because they don't have the stomach to put their mass in line.
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@alanhonlunli yeah, no. No one is hardwired into the US dollar system because of inelastic demand. It's simple that, it is a legacy of the Bretton Woods system. It continues to carry weight because commodity producers, most importantly the oil producers of the Middle East continue to sell their commodities for us dollars. Secondarily, and you can argue even more critically, China who is the world's largest exporting nation, continues to sell its exports for us dollars. The system was already stretched with China piling up mountains of US dollars as Reserves and looking to buy assets all around the world to reduce the dollar pile, as an economy the size of China and one which is the primary trading Nation cannot avoid the world of the reserve currency for long. Secondarily, as the primary consumer of Natural Resources in the world has become china, and China is already there largest trading partner, it makes only sense that they should ditch dollars and use Chinese yuan. So America if it's lucky may have another 10 years as a reserve currency whatsoever, but it's fate is pretty much the same as the British pound after the end of the Sterling block. Again, it seems as if armchair pontificators have not bothered to do any research on how global banking and trade actually functions.
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@HyzersGR lol. Clearly you have not been paying attention, too many YouTube videos? The alternative Swift system is already forming, Russia has already connected its banking system to China's union pay, and there is already direct lending of Yuan by Russian banks. We have even seen hostile countries to china, like india, purchase Commodities from Russia and Chinese yuan. However, at the end of the day countries just want to be able to freely trade and an alternative to swift, with the US dollar and American extra territorial jurisdiction, offers that. This is all aside from the deciding factor that, China is the world's largest trading nation, the largest trading partner for most nations in the world, and therefore there is already an ecosystem of Yuan Surplus and Yuan deficit countries that can settle their current accounts in Chinese Yuan without skipping a Beat.
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@HyzersGR lol. Your low level of understanding of basic economics is hilarious. What percentage of China's GDP is exports? Not gross exports, net exports, the answer is 2%! I know westerners like to think that the Chinese live to manufacture things for them and cannot survive but for the west, but in reality China exports to pay for the commodity Imports it needs for its industrial base which is to supply domestic consumption and investment!
Not to mention, the Chinese Yuan has performed quite favorably against most of the G7 currencies as of late, and as a reserve currency would perform even better given that it no longer needs to position itself vis-a-va Reserve currency.
As for manufacturing leaving china, okay much over hyped. That is low level manufacturing that is going to places like vietnam, and Vietnam doesn't even have the infrastructure to absorb the factories leaving china.
Lastly, remember I said the words NET exports, not gross exports. I know you have a comprehension problem. What most people tend to mention is gross exports, or gross imports. While those measures can be helpful to identify things like supply chain integration, they are not useful in understanding the dependency of a country on trade.
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@skyisreallyhigh3333 I see your understanding of Economics is not even basic. Your argument is that technology has made everyone more productive, well that's a hard argument to make because in every sector you have to show that technology has been employed to make workers more efficient, that is clearly not the case. When we look at the industrial sector we would measure productivity, by the dollar value of units of production per worker per hour. However, that can be highly misleading, when we start looking carefully at the American industrial sector by units of production produce per worker per hour, setting aside the bloated prices government and government contractors are prepared to pay for made in America industrial products, we see no productivity increases since the 1960s. Sure, there have been productivity increases in the mining sector, although there is significantly less mining, and we would see the same thing in the financial sector, information technology, and other things of that sort. However, when we look into the service sector, large parts of the secondary economy like logistics, Warehouse services, and government bureaucracy we see no increase in productivity why, Baumol's cost disease, look it up.
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@xhy12 I may not be an expert on Semiconductor production, but I do have a PhD in economics and have an exceptional knowledge of international trade flows.
However, when you start with such nonsense like " distract from internal instability" I already know that you're an ignorant jingoist and have no understanding of the economic Dynamics at play divorce from your wishful thinking to maintain Western supremacy.
If China takes taiwan, there is no way to replace those Fabs in the short term, or even the medium term. In the short term the Chinese will not find it difficult, much like the South koreans, but much faster as a matter of national Prestige and with much greater access to capital, to replace the key materials needed to support the fabrication facilities. Nor will the vast majority of ethnically Han Mandarin speaking Chinese be opposed to Mainland control of taiwan. Not to mention that every non-western nation has incentive to get on with dealing with a Chinese control Taiwan and maintain the access to semiconductors for their own purposes, not wishing to sacrifice themselves on the mantle of Western supremacy.
Again you can keep thinking to yourself that China is going to fail, that the Chinese are on the brink of disaster, maybe you should go read some Gordon chang, and soothe yourself at night, that's not going to happen. At the end of the day, the Chinese population is larger than the entire Western world combined and continues to save and invest, the sure size of its internal market and focus investment will allow its Supremacy in the semiconductor industry within the next 10 years.
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@Moped_Mike no, China blows America out of the water, and every other Western Country on a per capita basis, only on per Capital GDP in nominal terms does the United States run supreme. Also, when you correct the US numbers for units of production, rather than using dollar figures, over inflated US Government procurement prices, we see that the situation for the US is even worse. But at the end of the day all you have to do is consider that us net, not gross, imports, are higher than it's Total Industrial out.
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@ruedelta there's quite a bit unpack there. First off a nation of over a billion people is not going to be a service economy, at least not one that is first world.
Secondly, climate change has not been all bad for all the peoples at the equator, at least in the case of Africa it is actually led to more mild temperatures and increasing regreening of desert spaces. As well as an unexplained regrowth of trees in Savannah areas.
The Dynamics of a developed Indonesia would be quite unique, something that has never been seen before because Indonesia would not be a raw commodity importer, it has all the Commodities necessary for an industrial base within its own borders. Such a situation has only been seen in the case of the Soviet union, a nation having both an industrial base and the resources to support industry within their own borders. However, the major difference between the Soviet Union and it developed Indonesia would be, presumably, Indonesia would be a market-oriented economy. Again, there are a number of nations in the world which have all of the resources necessary to support industrial development, none aside from the Soviet union, have put aside the natural resource curse to take the funds and climb the value added ladder.
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@Curt_Sampson I'm not looking to have a debate with you about the merits of the war in ukraine. Russia acted reasonably given the danger it faced. A NATO aligned Ukraine could never be allowed on Russia's doorstep. To allow NATO in Ukraine would be to have NATO troops and arms on Russia's doorstep, which would mean NATO nuclear weapons too close to Russia for an early warning system to work, forcing Russia to make blind threat assessments, essentially creating a potential second Cuban Missile Crisis situation.
Putin did not bomb mariopol to the ground, to the contrary, he ordered his troops to surround the azov steelworks and force the Neo-Nazi soldiers based there to surrender, only using bombs on the last few remaining fighters. Again, contrast Putin's actions in Ukraine to America's actions in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Americans bombed every piece of infrastructure, every military command center, and the civilian population Centers before they sent one ground troop into combat.
Putin believes that the ukrainians are his people, fellow Orthodox Christian slavs, and so he is not prepared to take such actions against them. However, once again Ukraine exist at Russia's pleasure, if tomorrow Putin grows tired of this nonsense and decides to launch non-nuclear ICBM missiles, 2,000 of them which Russia has more than enough, there will not be a Ukraine left to fight.
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@Curt_Sampson the continued Eastward expansion of NATO has been a source of contention with the Russians since the mid 1990s. Even because Gorbachev stated that Russia has been treated with disrespect and that the West continues to provoke russia. Secondly, according to both let me call Gorbachev and James baker, the United States promised Russia there would be no Eastern expansion of nato, a promise that Bill Clinton broke. While Baltic countries are members of nato, there are no strategic weapons stationed there, for the exact reason why Ukraine cannot be a member of nato. This could all have been avoided if the United States had acted in a restrained manner, but they have been threatening Russian security since the end of the cold war, and have been attempting to collapse the Russian State since it's revitalization under putin. The long-term plan is to neutralize Russia as a threat, and this is only caused a Resurgence of the Russian state. The West said hope to arrest its decline by paralyzing the Russian State and helping it would become as weaken as dysfunctional as ukraine, in the end this was all to contain china, instead they have driven Russia into China's arms, and the two together will devour the West.
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@Curt_Sampson lol. Europe is economically bleeding trying to support latest position on ukraine. Winter is coming, and Europeans will go cold, hungry, and unemployed. How long do you think Europe can last with 20% inflation and 600% increases and energy cost? I hope you don't believe in a fantasy of an alternative energy supplier to russia. Let me help you understand that compressed natural gas, like the kind that comes from russia, even before the crisis was six four to six times cheaper than l&g. Not to mention LNG requires specialized facilities on both the shipping and receiving end, as well as specialized ships to transport it. Any other line coming from the East would have to cross turkey, which has its own issues with regard to europe. Anything from africa, well that would require European to stop destabilizing africa. There is no alternative to Russian energy for europe, and therefore Russia can strangle the Earth, as it is. However, the Real Salt in the wound is the Chinese prepare to purchase all of the gas Europe was buying and more, at a lower discount to market!
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No. The entire Scandinavian model simply the welfare state. Individuals simply become leeches on the society, no self-worth, no contribution, and no assets. A model for equality is about giving individuals the ability to achieve, not making their outcome equal whether or not they do a chief. A society which pays garbage collectors the same as surgeons is a society which is headed for catastrophe, especially if there's no external source of plunder or Revenue to cover the loss of performance from people not being rewarded for their extra work. In the case of Scandinavia, the export of Natural Resources is largely the methodology of covering this Gap.
While opportunity will not solve all problems, as their issues that individual May face with support from his family unit that the state cannot overcome, it is the best way to see equality in a society. Although no one wants to talk about it, for all the so-called inclusion and diversity measures in the western world for invisible ethnic minorities these are little more than window dressing. A qualified minority, whatever his Merit, we'll have less opportunity than a member of the majority society as opportunities are first and foremost about the perception of the person and their fit for the organization, for which a member of the majority will be seen as a better candidate always.
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