Comments by "Omer عمر" (@Omer1996E.C) on "Threading a Needle: Can Trump Bring Peace to the Middle East?" video.
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@spxram4793 it's not about arab leaders, leaders are not that influential in the mindset of arabs, it's mostly the clergy and intellectuals actually.
The intellectuals remind the people how israel was created when it wasn't a thing, imported from Europe.
The nationalists tell the people that this land is occupied, and it was never israeli, but arab.
The activists tell that these lands are stolen from the rightful people, and that thieves shouldn't be acknowledged
The others say that israel is an existential threat, since its main job is to be an aircraft carrier for the western world, divide the arab world at its geographic center, and it has an ambition to expand to medina and turkey, iraq and egypt as well. And many israelis actually say this out loud.
Then the religious institution continously preaches about the day that'll come, regimes change and israel comes to an end. So, no need to have a peace with temporary entity, as they say.
The problem is that there's no a defined timeframe for a "temporary" entity, except that it's not permanent, which is very vague.
A lot of you seem to not understand that immense soft power of the religious institution in the arab world, even if it's probably one of the most suppressed/silenced institutions in the world.
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@spxram4793 not quite frankly. This is also something many don't understand. These are not democratic countries, and therefore, having an influence over the people doesn't mean having an influence on the government, like you, democratic nations have.
The military in the case of Egypt, and the ruling families (actually many families in each country) in the case of monarchies, who are the protectors of the regimes, are the ruling elite, not anyone else.
Of course, there are some corrupt religious figures, intellectuals, representatives, etc... that are also part of the regimes, but these are minorities, the exception to the rule, who are used to try and control the masses, but are ineffective when over-exploited (like if a cleric lie alot to save the government, he'll overtime lose popular trust and become ineffective).
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@yopyop3241 this thing even puzzled me alot, until I realised one thing, that the only thing that can move the arab populace is the religious institution, especially if the islamists came to the show. I'm not saying they're good or bad, but that they're the one holding the flag. But now, the religious institution is severely silenced and islamists are criminalised by almost every ruling regime, which effectively paralysed the Arab peoples. Why? Because this is an institution that dominated for 1300 years, and its suddenly being aggressively attacked and torn down by governments. There is no another organiser. Islamists were the main organisers of the 2011 arab spring, the main reason arab monarchies are under any internal threat, the one who killed the Egyptian president, the one who provoked ISIS growth, and they're the only reason why arab governments are practically secular, but they never declare secularism to avoid an islamic revolution. Islamists are not necessarily criminals, they're just too frustrated. Why would any nation's government be secular when its people doesn't want it. Look at how Saudi Arabia was peaceful before MBS, because it was very conservative and didn't explicitly enter yemen, just like how most people liked. But now, after opening up, it's being in a somehow threatening situation, with many clerics imprisoned or on 💀 row. So, the only reason why Islamists are a threat, is because arab governments doesn't want to go by the will of their peoples. It's so plain and simple unless your only focus is power, and the US is pulling you to that side by assuring you that they'll protect your power.
The other thing might be that the "arab street" only needs one part of it to move, then the whole arab world erupts, just like the arab spring. But I'm not sure about this, except if Egypt's government fell, then I'm sure many of the others would follow.
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@amir_os754 see, it's very mixed and complicated. Iran wants israel to go because they know that if Israel is no longer a problem, then Iran will be one of, or even the single largest power in the middle east. Then, Iran wants to make the region more shia, rather than sunni, because that will secure their power for HUNDREDS OF YEARS if it got successful at making the peoples shia. If they were really concerned about muslims, they wouldn't have done all those bad things on our Syrian brothers and sisters. Another thing is that, yes, they actually have some problem with the fact that the land is no longer muslim, but this is for the clerical classes, not for the highest ruling elites. And finally, the problem also stems from the USA. Iran knows the USA is trying to overthrow the Iranian regime, and they know israel is America's proxy, so they don't want israel because it is a threat to Iran's stability
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@Boababa-fn3mr I think you're not taking what I said seriously. After all, the people are the source of power, if the people revolt, you might lose the throne or at least make a alot of concessions.
And in the cases of egypt, Lebanon, Tunisia, etc... it's not about ruling dynasties, but ruling individuals, and individuals come from the common people, which means that if the common people have a negative perception of, say Israel, the next leaders are very much likely to also have negative perceptions of Israel, and those future leaders also take into considerations the public perception.
In conclusion, public perception is important, and the masses dictate the future no matter what, and the only way to protect one's throne is by changing public perception, not ignoring it, which is what arab leaders are doing, and which is why any normalisation with israel is at high risk of long term failure.
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@seneca983 yeah, mostly it's only known by us, arabs, how extremely unfaithful abd evil our politicians are. MBS is a comparatively young ruler, he studied some time in the US and got influenced by it, he's power and money hungry, and he's very delusional, as you know, with his neom city and other projects. So, such kind of people are the worst, and what else do we expect from them?
And btw, the quote about MBS was from a new book, i think it's called "war," and it was in a talk between MBS and Anthony Blinken in a kinda secret meeting
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