Comments by "Vale Tudo" (@valetudo1569) on "People are too bearish cyclically on China, says China Beige Book CEO Leland Miller" video.

@myacc9610 Chinese people are resourceful, but that doesn't change the fact the long-term economy has been mismanaged. China grew very quick, very fast, but it did so at a cost - crushing debt levels and malinvestment in unproductive assets by the government. This might sound crazy if you look at the past 30 years, but the same was true about Japan in 1994, which also had break-neck growth and China has followed their exact growth model. Factor that in with a rapidly aging and shrinking population, also made much worse by a mismanagement of past policies. So the situation China is in actually has zero fault of the hard-working Chinese people, and has everything to do with those who failed the change the investment-led growth model once it became it stopped producing a positive ROI (about 15 years ago or so by some estimates). Anyways its definitely my opinion this is structural, and there will have to be a long pain period of re-adjustment, similar to Japan post 1994. Time shall tell
3
Hong Kong, overall, is having a hard time. You name one sector and are comparing it to when things were crazy locked down last year. It won't be a slow-down like 2015. It's a structural slowdown and high growth won't be coming back... Leland even says this above. China's trade surplus actually shrank this past year. It's higher than pre-pandemic but its not at it's highest...their exports with their major trading partners dropped across the board ( I believe the average was 8%). They also can't rely on trade surpluses as a means for growth going forward because the economy is too big for that and must learn other ways to grow besides subsidizing manufacturing to keep those trade surpluses. "Come see for yourselves" well I live in China, and everyone is aware the economy is hurting.
2