Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. Once Russia or China takes on that insurance those tankers will be fair game.
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  2. The US Navy role will change it will not be reduced in capabilities.
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  3. How is OPEC going to change the supply infrastructure coming out of Russia? Can OPEC replace those several million barrels of oil per day at the same price to Europe?
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  4. Not just the cost of the insurance but the actual cost of operating on the seas. Having a fleet of ships is going to be very expensive.
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  5.  @SianaGearz  You are living in a fantasy.
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  6.  @imapimplykindapimp  That automation will be in the hands of people. There is too many people out there believing that the automation is completely autonomous. Automation that the US employs will be a force multiplier that enables existing workers to output 100 fold current levels. Even with that there will be a shortage in the world of products.
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  7. OPEC are weak not strong. They do things ont he basis of their own self interests. The world is already in turmoil and OPEC will not now have the ability to create more turmoil. Many of the OPEC countries are now in very unstable conditions and could easily collapse them self.
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  8. The delusion here being exhibited by some people is off the charts. You think the human body is enough to heat an insulated appartment?
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  9. If America had of been more assertive in the world none of this would have happened.
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  10.  @piotrszostakowski416  They choose one set of policies over another and are no paying the price. The root of the pricing is not just about a panic and is is really about future supplies. Maybe if they can find oil and gas at the end of the rainbow everything will be sweetness and honey but the markets that value these commodities do not buy into such rainbows they tend to be purely quantitative.
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  11. No it is more than just panic but there is a good reason for the panic they do not have natural gas at the ready.
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  12.  @EnderViBrittania  It is a fantasy.
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  13. The problem is no body believes your fantasy story.
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  14.  @Ea-pb2tu  None of those candidate have a developed consumer market like the US has. About 20% of Chinese exports are US based but that only makes up about 1% of US trade. And that 20% of Chinese exports does not account for technical support from US industry.
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  15.  @Ea-pb2tu  Where do you think this export market is going to be gained from?
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  16. China and India are going to go to war about water. China is in the process of building a dam system and redirecting water that will affect water supply in india.
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  17.  @randall172  Would that be a long side robots that people can marry.
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  18.  @007kingifrit  ".but they have already industrialized" Then why would they need to go to war over water?
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  19. You are not making much sense.
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  20. Those are politics and he tends to not deal with those.
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  21. It will not impact Tesla or Apple who assemble their product in China for the CHinese market and greater asian market. Most of the vehicles produced in China are for export.
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  22. Stealth fighters? Calling them stealth does not make them stealth. They may be able to source integrated circuits for a few hundred fighter jets but that will not help their industrial outputs.
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  23. Nope China will not be able to do that. The industries of both Korea and Taiwan are underwritten by the US. No doubt black market chips will make their way to China that will not help their industrial outputs.
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  24. Concession for what?
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  25. Because China did not change. The reason why US industry was allowed to go to china in the first place was to try and bring China out of the cold and avoid war but that clearly has not worked.
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  26.  @incognitotorpedo42  You may not like Trump but it was under his administration that all of it started. The reason Biden is carrying it on is due to the fact the threat of China is now so obvious.
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  27. US federal debt is small compared to the US total asset base. Most of that debt is not actually monies that are owed as payment but are liabilities with most of it being an accounting exercise.
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  28.  @fluoroantimonictippedcruis1537  Dutch industrial Lithography industry is based on US industry.
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  29. The US cut of Japan before WW2 because Japan was war mongering. People need to stop blaming the US reacting to things as if the US caused them to begin with.
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  30.  @Remigius0815  I think your view is nonsense and simplistic at best. China simply does not have a native microchip industry. It has a series of plants that are really investments from other countries. You rambling about 14nm is irrelevant to the discussion. China has no fine instrument industry to produce the components that make up transistor and integrated fabrication. The industry that China does have is specialized in low level microcontroller architectures that simply could even survive without external support.
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  31.  @Acidfox86  That is not what is happening. US industry went into China back in the 1970s to try and make the Chinese more like the west and to keep them away from Russia. This approach failed hence why the US is now backing away from it.
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  32. The indication of this is that the US navy has been reducing the number of destroyers that would be needed to patrol the world's oceans. This is not something that has just happening the last few months but has been taking place over decades.
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  33. It is simple they will buy their goods from somewhere else or how should I put it they will get their goods manufactured somewhere else.
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  34. Pure nonsense.
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  35. Shilling? He has a plant there and simply stay out of any sort of actions there that are political. Very few CEO's have actually done anything in public to annoy China because it simply is not their job. It is up to the US presidential administration and Congress to do something not Elon Musk or Tim Cook.
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  36. Volvo manufactures its cars in Europe and North America but are owned by a Chinese holding company. Not sure how that is going to play out though.
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  37. Yes there is a way. China would need to over the next 60 years build their integrated circuit manufacturing industry and then maybe they would be where the US is now.
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  38. It would take 60 years to build a microchip industry like the US has. It is not something that can easily be planned.
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  39.  @HailAzathoth  Oh yes it does.
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  40.  @franciscobermejo1779  The reality is that the US could cut those countries off if it wanted to not that it nessarily would but it could.
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  41. So tell us how you think countries are going to help China?
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  42. China does not produce any of the chips that are used in Apple phones. I will go one further they do not produce any of the complex components in the phones and are really the factory base were the phones are assembled.
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  43. The US is Germany's biggest export market and they will have to decide what they value most.
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  44. Designed in the UK but based on American designs and patents. ARM has their own patents as well.
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  45. The internet of things is embedded computation and those simply systems are part of that overall concept. Digital watches are starting to become networked as are fridges, washing machines and coffee makers.
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  46. It takes 60 years to build that sort of industry. It is not something that can just be wished into place.
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  47. Intel had one plant in China but it has already been closed. AMD have plants in china but I would suspect they are already planning those out.
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  48. Batteries are not going to last that long.
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  49.  @nickkacures2304  Yep Germany has no energy crisis and everything is rosey in the garden. Who are you trying to kid with all of this?
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  50.  @nickkacures2304  Commercial panels at 51° do not produce anywhere near solar conversions of 50%. Why people are debating Moore's law is beyond me as it is irrelevant to this topic.
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