Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. None of that will change the fact that German industrial production will become more expensive. LNG is more expensive.
    1
  2. It depends if it is warm and wet or warm and dry.
    1
  3.  @terryfaugno9242  The super tankers for LNG cannot produce the same levels of gas as a pipe line. Germany is going to see a 8 fold increase in the energy input cost of its manufacturing.
    1
  4. A single worker with automation will output far more products. Hence why a single US worker will be able to produce 100 times more products than they could 35 years ago and why we will see US industry starting to build out again. We are also going to see a new market place of small independent producers with micro factories that are able to output high quality locally produced goods at a lower price. 3D printing will be one of those areas as will next generation injection molding. Metal base injection moulding is already a thing for small businesses.
    1
  5. Tesla will be fine as it makes a product that people want and there are no realistic alternatives. Elon sometimes just needs to not speak and say things.
    1
  6. What do you mean by not realistic?
    1
  7. Those types of innovations are beyond our current level of science and technology. They will happen if humans do not destroy them self. To get what you want that would mean living longer, healthier but staying younger. So that women can be fertile into their fifties. There is a lot of complexity in that. We will with biotechnology, generics and information sciences improve health and create longevity but that does not mean it can keep people in a younger state for longer. It will more than likely mean that old age is better managed and diseases are more preventable.
    1
  8. Robots will come and we will start to see them in the 2020s but they will be like 1970s cellular phones in that they will be bulky, slow, prone to failure and extremely expensive. We now have prototype models in existence but they would be useless as products. By the way we are nowhere near the end of Moore's law.
    1
  9.  @julianbryantjb  It does not matter if we hate them or not they are a failing culture and will get desperate as time goes on and may end up doing dangerous desperate things.
    1
  10. If Russia had of adapted the free market it would be very wealthy and with its nuclear weapons not open to invasion anytime soon but they did none of that.
    1
  11. As the world becomes more unstable food, energy, fertilizers, commodities and transport will be disrupted that in turn will drive more conflict.
    1
  12. As Peter has pointed out on many occasions automation and robotics do not buy or consume.
    1
  13. What if that willing person is a serial killer, drug dealer or a wannabe terrorist. The vast majority are clearly not that but how would it be known. The American immigration system is too tough and so are most European countries. A child born in Germany even if they spent 10 years of their life being raised there is not German and is automatically classified by Germany as the nationality of the parents which is pretty extreme.
    1
  14. I do not think most Americans even including those hardcore Trump supporters have an issue with immigrants that are keen to work. What many have an issue with is criminals coming into America that have not been background checked. I am sure Mexicans would not want hardcore American gangsters landing in their towns. The movies make it look so easy but I doubt they would welcome them.
    1
  15. Some people are just living in a pure fantasy. No body would trust any of the tin pot economies currencies. There is no rush to buy them or to trade in them or even to hold them. Anybody that tries to convince you of this is talking pure and utter horse dirt.
    1
  16.  @arnevontorgau9311  You do understand that there are different generations of the Tomahawk and that we are several variants on from the initial 1972 version. Do you know what variant the Japanese are getting is it the anti ship version for example?
    1
  17. Metric is a french inferior system that the EU is built upon. I suppose all that gas volumes in metric really helped them out.
    1
  18.  @manners7483  You mean US companies make them in China?
    1
  19. There is nothing China can do about it other than stamping their feet.
    1
  20. Fusion is a fantasy and is not going to have any impact on the world in the next 20 years.
    1
  21.  @casualsuede  The Quad is already being developed and will take time to play out. If you read my original comment you will see that I said it will take development and for circumstances.
    1
  22.  @theboss-wy4cn  The Quad is already in development so I have no idea what you are talking about.
    1
  23. It could involve india as well but that would depend on future developments and outcomes.
    1
  24. There was no similar attack to 911 when the war on terror started.
    1
  25. There is no other country that can use the model as they do not have the industrial economy to do it.
    1
  26. Korean war was about stopping Chinese communists from conquering the peninsula. Vietnam was also about stopping that spread. Latin America was about stopping the USSR from expanding. How you can even compare them is beyond belief.
    1
  27. That makes no sense.
    1
  28. America is not imperial. It takes out threats when it needs to but that is it. Ukraine was an own goal for Russia. Even now in the middle of a war Ukraine has still not sent forces into Russia so when was Ukraine ever going to be a military threat to Russia?
    1
  29. You heard that all in your own head.
    1
  30. The US pre 911 would smash countries with armaments and unconventional warfare without even blinking. It does not need an invading force to conquer a country. If tomorrow the US decide to take down Iran it could do so with relative ease and by the way it may do that to send out a message to Russia and China of what happens when messing with the US. All it takes is for Iran to step out of line for the US to hit it really hard. The US may decide to target an iranian proxy to send a message to Iran.
    1
  31. It is only a statistical significance and not actually meaningful on a population level.
    1
  32. No that is a myth. The forces that the US backed in Afghanistan were a mixture of different tribal groups. The Taliban are actually a group that are backed from within Pakistan and are not the same as the Mujahideen. No doubt there would have been some members from that earlier US back efforts that worked their way in but that is not the same thing.
    1
  33. Sort of but it really is just the US backing another country with equipment.
    1
  34.  @ivancho5854  I do not believe North Korea which has no economic trade, no native industries or any native technical capabilities has anything near to the numbers that are being claimed. It would be like Russia in that the military force is all on paper but the reality is different. South Korea has a heavy industrial base that is hundreds of times greater than that of North Korea. Blinding firing of artillery is not going to win in modern war.
    1
  35.  @JohnnyAmerique  In all out war North Korea would get slaughtered trying to storm the defensive lines of South Korea. Artillery is useless without accuracy and the ability to identify targets. South Korea has a larger and more modern air force, better missile system including missile defense. I doubt North Korea actually has nuclear warheads that it could use effectively in battle. It has chemical weapon but no experience of actually deploying them and could just as likely have said weapons produce returns on them. North Korean forces are no where near the level of Russian forces. The technological gap between the South and the North is so vast that it would be one of the most one sided wars to have occurred post WW2. Do you really believe that North Korea has any type of signal warfare?
    1
  36. He does a lot of speeches, writes books and is constantly on the road. You only have to watch is videos to realize how busy he is. He even does online presentations around the world.
    1
  37.  @tonywilson4713  America lost 50000 troops in Vietnam and killed 2.5 million Vietcong. The US did not lose one battle and got the Vietcong to surrender. It was the US congress that decided to pull out of Vietnam even thought he war was won. Just as the US pulled out of Afghanistan. Pulling out of somewhere is not the same as losing just as the US pulled out of Iraq. Are you going to claim the US lost in Iraq as well?
    1
  38.  @tonywilson4713  American won the war in Vietnam and Afghanistan. It never lost one battle in those places. Technically those were not wars by US standards and were just operations. It is not in Russia's interest to even attempt to take on the US anywhere in the world.
    1
  39. That does not make any sense.
    1
  40.  @frivolousarguments8578  The US killed 2.5 million Vietcong and got them to surrender with the peace accords. The US congress then like Joe Biden just decided to pull out. The US did not wage total war in Vietnam as it was not a war for the US.
    1
  41. The US never lost in Vietnam. People confuse the war that occurred their with the US decision to pull out.
    1
  42. The US never lost its confidence with Vietnam. The US killed over 2.5 million Vietcong and lost about 50,000 troops which is about the same number it lost in Korea a decade earlier. The US won militarily in Vietnam but the congress was not willing to then have the US stick around.
    1
  43. Korea has a massive military stockpile. There weapons systems are far more advance than what the North has. Taiwan on the other hand has a storm rough ocean between them and China and a dense missile defence system and 1.5 million fighting force to defend their island. The only thing the US would have to do is supply aid. China would not be stupid enough to target the US navy in open seas warfare they would get mauled.
    1
  44. The Byzantine's where no where near as powerful as what the US is today relative to their world. They were a shadow of the Roman Empire but they still had tactics that would enable them to move chess pieces around the board when need be. Even the Venetians were capable of doing that because their rich trade economy enable them to buy armies. The main difference between them and the US is that the US has a monstrous standing army that could be made 10 times larger in a major war if need be. What caused the venetian fall was that their mercenary armies were not loyal to the homeland and could be bought by other interested parties.
    1
  45. The US is a thousand times more powerful than France.
    1
  46.  @theantiantichrist  If Russia uses nuclear weapons against the US guess what will happen the US will use them against Russia. Russia better hope that their full arsenal of warheads are still active after 50 years of storage.
    1
  47. The West just wants a simply relationship with Turkey that is not to sensational. If Turkey was a bit more cleaver it would stay completely of the Wests radar. Turkey can stand up for its self when it needs to but targeting all kurds because there is one group of kurds that are a danger is not sensible or good optics. Turkey could negotiate some sort of deal with most kurds (maybe not all).
    1
  48.  @gorgon__soup  The vast majority of people in the US are not snow flakes. The US military has 1.4 million personnel and they are not snowflakes.
    1
  49.  @TheLastCrumb.  The US has 1.4 million professional military personnel. There is no other country on earth that has that. Conscripts do not count.
    1
  50.  @Bug0xF4  I am afraid Russia cannot do everything the US can do. If the US had of invaded Ukraine it would have been over in 3 days.
    1