Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1.  @martins3885  It does not matter what you think Germany will do. They now cannot manufacture at their current costs. And even if they engineer a solution by the time they have that figured their next issue will be European demographic decline.
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  2. He has not asked for Troops. Russia has not even used their own troops fully.
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  3. Yes the Russian civilians will go along with the government. There is something like an 80% support level for the Russian government at present.
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  4. I am afraid that is just nonsense.
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  5. SVB has a very low depositor rate. Meaning they have lots of large corporate depositors that have large sums of money.
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  6. Taiwan has a massive air force, naval defences and a missile system for defences. China will be hitting its head against a wall doing that.
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  7. That is the problem with Japan it has a central planning approach to its economy. The very thing that caused the problem is the very thing that is trying to fix it.
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  8. If you are talking about trains then the fantasy of a coast to coast high speed network that can some how magically service every state is nothing more than pure nonsense. There maybe a case within in a state of between city areas for high speed train but the reality of that is not that convincing. california needs to spend in excess of 100 billion to build such a system but in reality that would probably double when the project actually gets started. And exactly what would be the purpose of that?
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  9. It does not matter if you think Biden is fit or not they choose him over Trump. And will probably do the same again no matter what we think. If Republicans put DeSantos up for election then that would be a different story.
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  10. AAL gross profits for 2021 was $2 billion and for 2020 was -$5 billion. And the years proceeding that their gross profits were static and not growing. And their debt has been growing at 18% per year for the last decade. If there was no pandemic and loss of business they would still be in very serious trouble. Buffett got out of airlines before the pandemic because they were becoming too volatile. If they do not get a bail out they are going under.
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  11. @Adrian montañez Stop stop stop stop stop. You are a lawyer and already have a profession use that profession in the manufacturing industrial sector. Not everybody needs to be an actual engineer. There are lots of industrial administration management roles that your skills would be perfect for.
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  12. It is either a political overreaction to crazy acrtivist or it is a real coup d'etat.
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  13.  @QuizmasterLaw  Russia integration with the EU was always a fantasy of the Europeans but was never a reality. Neither was NATO membership. It was not to say that Russia could not be brought into the fold at some point but they as a culture rejected all such ideas with their own decisions.
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  14. Australia has everything it needs to build a manufacturing economy.
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  15. These are not Joes policies he is only implementing them. Even the policies Trump claims are not his and he just took the good ideas and allowed the executive branch to implement them.
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  16.  @attilaann5686  US does not need to seize Russia heavy crude.
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  17. Chat GPT cannot do real world visual systems that Peter is talking about. Manufacturing still requires human dexterity and judgement.
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  18.  @Timo-qb1gf  Yeah strip mining all that copper is really cheap and friendly to the environment. More like 100 tons of displacement.
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  19. Fossil fuels are processed and that means the part that is best for plastics gets used for that and the process separates the petrol and diesel parts. Very little of it is actually wasted.
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  20. None of that will help industry deal with the gas supply decline. There is just no other outcome when Russia is not supply the gas. The reason why Russian gas has been used was due to its being cheap. LNG and build other gas lines is not cheap nor will it keep prices down.
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  21. Ohio train derailment will have little impact on US crops.
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  22.  @krakhedd  By second he was referring to Japan not the US or China. He did make a slip up at one point and said China when he meant Japan. These things are to be expected when doing live videos on a trek.
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  23. Australia has a higher number of 25 to 45 year olds than it does 45 to 65 year olds and it is quite a significant difference as well.
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  24. I think there is merit in what Dan Crenshaw is doing but it will not stop the cartel as a whole.
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  25. It is simple China has no microchip industry and just has a series of plants that are based on investments. None of this is complex and does not require what you think matches up.
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  26. The difference in that period was that Germany was rising and coming to a position of aggression. Russian in this instance is rising to war but on the back of legacy and when they use all of that it could be massive decline on the other side.
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  27. So how do robots buy goods and consume within a society. And better still how does a non existent Chinese automated industrial base help that?
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  28. Killing of the elderly will not help with the fact China does not have enough young people to maintain their current or previous industrial outputs. China relies upon its export market but that is already starting to shrink and as more workers become less productive because they get too old to do the physical labour that will create economic instability. A 65 year ol concrete worker is not going to be as productive as a 21 year old and that will be replicated throughout the Chinese system in every industry.
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  29. US has no shortage of energy nor does it have an issue with falling population.
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  30. We can all guess how bad they are but we do not know. Russian nuclear arsenal may not be as active or capable as people think but who would really want to test that?
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  31.  @waynesworldofsci-tech  I do not disagree with much of what you have stated. I simply do not trust the numbers coming out of Russia.
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  32. So you are saying that Lincoln, Cadillac and Buick are not as good as the German cadre. That is some fanboy logic going on there. If the Germans cannot sell their cars in America it most certainly will affect them no matter how people try to spin it.
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  33. Clean coal, nuclear, natural gas and renewable were it is easy could really make a large difference for many countries. That should have been Germanys' approach but in doing that they would not have had as much success with their manufacturing but they may have then focused on high end value manufacturing that is hard to achieve but the Germans could have done it.
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  34. I cannot see Turkey getting involved as it could end up with Russia using nuclear weapons. Why Russia would not have enough weapons for full exchange with the US they most certainly have enough for their own region. They may not hit Turkey directly but they could use them on troops or positions within Ukraine.
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  35.  @andrewmunro5915  Denmark, Sweden, Norway, UK, Ireland, Australia, Argentina, New Zealand, France and US all have ok demographics. Outside of that most of the west is facing a demographic collapse.
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  36. Not at all. US industry is going to need IT people to run their systems. Especially manufacturing centers. Those machines use networking and operation systems to both control and monitor outputs. Even a building system today uses control systems. The key to success is to be flexible and to try and multidisciplinary your self. Your CS background could be the basis of that. There is nothing stopping you from adding a few extra career sets in their such as electronics, electrical systems or even mechanical systems. One of the big growth areas is electromechanical systems and that will be needed more than ever as US manufacturing is built out.
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  37. South Korea would maul North Korea in a war. It would be worse than what the Russians are facing in Ukraine. The technological difference between South and North is of such a level as comparing the US today with Europe in the 1940s. The gap is that wide.
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  38. Even with them making that self feeding loop it will have an outcome that has already been calculated. Kurzweil is the most optimistic of the theorists yet he has the turing test being complete by 2029 and with a series of developments from that date. His analysis is based on the mathematical compounding of the algorithms and hardware combined. Kurzweil goes to great lengths to stipulated that there is always an over optimism caused by certain breakthroughs to the point that it then creates pessimism in the breakthrough at some point only for it to emerge more capable in the future.
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  39. Grain storage is complex at best.
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  40. US national debt is not actually the figure that is claimed. Most of that is liabilities and accounting exercises within the government with no repayment structures or holdings. Real US debt is half that of GDP but it also is stacked against total assets that run into the trillions in value.
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  41.  @papasmurf9146  Ukraine was never considered to be part of NATO. It was a story that constantly gets brought up over and over but was never a reality. If Russia does not win this war it will now be surround on the western front by NATO.
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  42. They could have both represented the populist sides of their political divide and still got things done. Trump's political character created too many enemies to the point that he could get nothing done and people disliked him, Obama made a lot of promises and then never worked with democrats/republicans in congress to get things done. Trump got stuff through congress with the democrats on various issues but his political character was to abrasive and crazy.
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  43. The whole plastic and rubber thing has been way over played. The leftwing media is only talking about it because of the large volumes of it that end in the ocean but with a little bit of research they could easily figure out which countries are dumping into the oceans on an industrial scale.
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  44. Chinese economy has property exposure of about 50%.
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  45.  @WorldWide-q8v  Russian oil levels are not at pre war levels. China cannot buy the oil at the same rate that Russia was selling to Europe. It is absurd that anybody would even try to suggest that. There is no infrastructure that would allow such transports of oil at those scales.
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  46.  @Mehwhatevr  There are currencies that are actually pegged by their government. There is currently 65 currencies that governments peg to the US dollar.
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  47. Their reserves are probably larger than what is being stated so as to not have political pressure put on them to increase their output.
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  48. That is all fantasy. Who is going to consume within the Netherlands and Germany?
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  49.  @UHLatino  He cannot cover everything. The amount of industry in texas is beyond a simple video.
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  50. It depends if those extra incorrect female count is in the childbearing years which it most certainly is. So any number you see right now for childbirth is a future projected number that is not real. China may already have a zero child birth rate at a population level and may have so for the last decade.
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