Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "" video.

  1. Austrian economics does make good arguments but it also has made people over sensitive to the fact that dirt happens. Recessions are going to happen no matter who manages the system. The idea that there is some Austrian economic model of free market that will completely eliminate inflation or recession is a very simplistic outlook.
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  2. It is not that they are anomaly it is the fact that crazy policies were put in place with low interest rates. It is like having a sale were gold is 50% the market rate and there is only so long that can continue until the seller realizes that they cannot source any more gold or they run out of funds.
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  3.  @ffffuchs  Those migrants are not going to make up for a reduced birth rate among the German people. A few million extra migrants of all ages are not going to make up for the fact that Germany has only about 2.5 million under the age of 10 and nearly seven million in their fifties.
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  4. The federal reserve does not care about supply side trading and economics because they cannot control that. All they can do is deal with the monetary side of money supply. They have to slow down the rate of money creation and the best way to do that is to increase interest rates slow so that there is a slow down on that side. At this point a recession is the least of the federal reserve's worries and what concerns them the most is runaway inflation that once it starts can be very difficult to stop.
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  5. Australia has been in a very restrictive property market for the last 25 years. The housing stock in places like sydney was very low in the year 2000 and it has never been address and the amount of regulations restricting development has increased.
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  6. They are not raising interest rates to stave off a recession. They expect that recession to happen as a certainty. They are raising interest rates to stop inflation. And their primary reason for doing that is because once inflation starts it can be very difficult to stop and can play out of decades. In 1970 the US inflation rate was about 6% and by 1980 it was at 14%. With there being periods during that of peak inflation hitting 24%.
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  7. I would suggest you first read the book Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham that was written in 1949. It is based on his older book Security Analysis that was written during the great depression. It can become your investment bible that you use to develop your knowledge and act as a reference. If you are a young german with no family dependents look at emigrating to the US.
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  8. If you sold at the top of the market and are mortgage free you can now use that money to buy a property in a lower priced area and be mortgage free.
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  9.  @davidandrews1715  It was a period of hard choices that had to be made. the 1980s economics of the US was a response to the sloppy 1970s policies that encouraged expansion. If the UK had of followed the US lead in cutting taxes at the same time and deregulating they would have expanded their market base but instead the UK media and the unions along with members of parliament decided cutting taxes was not a good thing so only limited amounts of tax cuts happened.
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  10. The alternative to high interest rates in the 1980s was countries going bankrupt as inflation ran out of control.
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  11. They are backing out over fear not the ability to repay. Once that fear has subsided people may start to pile in again.
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  12. It can also cause US dollars to become less available and in turn cause inflation to rise. They need to cool that demand first of all with higher interest rates that will slow the rate of capital available. If they do not do that what will happen is that other markets will use US capital to buy up more US dollars that in turn will cause capital to flee their base markets. No matter where they step somebody is going to get squashed.
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  13. Variable interest rates are used in America as well it is just that the banks in America have more capital and better markets so they can offer better deals with the their fixed rates and it is far cheaper to get a fixed rate in the US than Australia. The only downside is that fixed rates are only as reliable as the bank/fund/organisation that guarantees it in contract. Nothing is truly set in stone and those really good value fixed rates could disappear even if a person has a contract stating their obligations of borrowing.
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  14. In this case it is the starting point with the pandemic disrupting supply chains.
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  15. They will do it as there will be a capital flight out of Europe. The UK market has the tools to enable it to dampen the outward flow of capital without doing anything to drastic. Since you have pointed out that it has not happened in decades that answer your question any small amount of control will look like the sky is falling.
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  16.  @donatoferioli7426  What has rich and poor got to do with anything?
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  17. He is not telling you to do that he is telling you what will probably happen.
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  18. The living standards in America are far higher than anywhere else. When Americans think they have it tough they are still living the high life compared to everywhere else. The great depression in America was still a far better economic condition than many European countries had at their economic peak.
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  19. Reagan administration along with democratic congress implemented a series of policies that increased household wealth and dampened inflation and that then resulted in the ability for the next 25 years to be a party time interest rate.
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  20. US debt is not real debt and is something else entirely. There is real debt built into it but not as much as people think.
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  21.  @joey199412  Most of those developing nations that rely on that cheap capital from the US are very corrupt and are not market economies. No matter what happens they were always going to fail. Many of them used that capital to fund their military forces so as to stay in power.
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  22. So do you prefer more welfare like free healthcare, student loan forgiveness or do you prefer no government healthcare, no government college funding. Which option do you like the most.
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  23.  @frankbieser  Historically increasing interest rates is one of the tools that cools inflation. Not that it stops it completely as there needs to be economic policy beside that but that is outside the perview of the fed and has to be done via the executive, legislator and people.
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  24. The federal reserve has only one role which is to control the supply of money which can include inflation.
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  25. Millenials are free to go out and build their own economy. They can start the next microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Nike and so on. No point crying about it and just get out and do things.
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  26. What?
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  27. You had it good compared to today generations who have not had a good economic ride.
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  28. The only way to conquer inflation is high interest rates so as to cool the demand money. The US also has another problem in that external demand for dollars is going to drive inflation higher. Hence why they have to try and cool the whole thing down before it starts to get out of control.
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  29.  @julianb1550  You are living in a fantasy world. Millennials is one of the most obedient generations to have ever existed. Saying crazy things on line does not translate to a whole generation getting out there and getting politically active. I would say millennials have one of the weakest political cultures to have been seen in 80 years. They care more about being offended than the actual state of the world. Tell us what sort of activism has millennials done?
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  30. They were still manipulating currency when on the gold standard.
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  31. They are not doing this to create a good economy as that is not their job. They are increasing interest rates to try and bring inflation under control. Interest rates and tax cuts are the only thing that are know to counter inflation over the long term.
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  32. He is talking on a base level what the bank does in the market to charge the customer is a different matter and could be much higher unless there are measures in place to stop the bank from doing it.
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  33. It is not about controlling economy it is about trying to stop inflation from running away.
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  34.  @vagabondcaleb8915  If everything I said was false name another country with higher living standards. It should be easy for you.
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  35.  @heartofodds  He can take advantage.
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  36.  @jonrolfson1686  That has zero impact on the market over all nor does it even have a solution.
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  37. They are doing it because of inflation that will later down the line cause further economic conditions.
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  38. ECB is not like the Fed and has nowhere near the powers that the Fed has. The ECB is a collection of different countries that have pooled their banking resources together and as such the ECB has a series of limitations placed on them. Anything that the ECB has to implement has to be ratified through the commission which in effect is the leadership of every european country. They can do minor interest rate changes but if they do anything that causes an individual country to start crying it could cause the whole house to come crashing down.
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  39. Every average worker in America can afford a mortgage somewhere in America.
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  40. @Iggy Swag I will be honest with you. If you are a medical doctor that has just finished medical school in Germany it is impossible for you take that Doctorate of medicine and start practising in the US. You would need to start all over again doing a 4 year science based degree in an American college, 4 years of medical school and then 3 to 4 years of residency. It is not impossible of you to do all of that and the reward would be immense at the very end as pay and standards of living in the US are very high. If you want it easier Switzerland would be an option for you, as would Ireland, Canada, Australia or New Zealand. Ireland and Switzerland would be the easy no visa options. Standard of living for a doctor in New Zealand and Canada would be very high and that would even be during a period of high inflation. If you are a women getting a visa through marriage to a US man would be easy if you want to do it. If you are a man doing the same would be very difficult. That is just the reality of biology.
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  41. Demographic instabilities, energy crisis, capital crisis, unstable currency, ECB that is useless and you want to call that challenges. Who are you trying to kid?
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  42. That 16.9% was the Reagan Regime but they were doing it as a response to the inflationary problem that they were facing which was caused during the era of Carter. Interest rates in the mid to late 1970s was down in the 5% range when it should have been double or triple that.
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  43. That is just a fantasy.
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  44. The job of the Fed is money supply only.
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  45. They were only bad when viewed in context of the overall policies that government the market.
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  46. That is the problem for people who decided that the EU was a good place to keep their money. European markets had a very short history for people to be so confinement in them. The UK on the other hand has centuries of banking history built on good and bad times experience. The ECB is an avalanche waiting to happen. All the snow has built up and all it will take is somebody to burp and it all comes crashing down.
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  47.  @jimjohnson3609  Petroleum is part of the wider pool of economics but the pandemic affected everything from Petroleum, manufacturing and services.
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  48. Most Millennials in the US are doing quite well.
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  49. The alternative is complete run away inflation that your portfolio will not allow you to by anything. Imagine a normal every day car cost $200,000 when your portfolio is worth $500,000.
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  50. Not having a house will make life so much more complicated later on. Renting is not easy to understand in 20 years time and with no house you have no way of knowing what it will be.
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  51.  @franciscobermejo1779  So let us get this straight you think the ECB that has no track record or earned capital is going to get into an agreement with a series of countries that do not even have a market economy? What on earth are you smoking?
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  52. So you expect 4% interest rates to deal with 10% inflation?
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  53. They most certainly have their eye on the future. Even during the market crisis 2008 and following recessions they never increased interest rates. So why now would they do it. Inflation most certainly is a defining factor but I am sure that they know that inflation is not a singular event and tends to play out over decades. The last time the US had lost control of inflation it last from 1966 to 1985 with the peak period being in the late 1970s.
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  54. Capital controls are not completely restricted by the ECB. Any country in Europe can set individual taxes, asset costs, asset leveraging and so on. There is no limited to the amount of individual policies that can be set that in effect will restrict the movement of capital.
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  55. The EU is not a good market economy and cares more about the EU existing than it does investors.
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  56.  @TokyoTaisu  I bet you are in favor of welfare to include free healthcare and free college education.
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  57. You sound like an itinerant in the great depression. If you can save for an RV why can you not save for a house?
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  58. I think he meant 6% to 9% with the difference being 3% and that is 50% of 6%.
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  59. How much did you pay for the home.
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  60. That operates on thin air. The real power of crypto is not that it is a currency but it can act as a network of exchange. Banks are about to use that very model for exchange and are trying to work out how to implement policy.
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  61.  @acenull0  Factories shutting down, schools shutting down, parts inventory running low and base materials falling of the market caused all of this.
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  62. It has nothing to do with Fiat currency.
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  63. Powell isn't doing it because Volker did it he is doing it because there simply are no other options. If they do not raise interest rates it will cause runaway inflation that could take down a whole economy.
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  64.  @deborahhebblethwaite1865  I assume you are talking about the US? The US has a solution for those immigrants and that is to deregulate the market and allow a new cycle of development like happened in America before. There has been various waves of this happening before and opening up the market solves the problem. It is the reason why people flocked to new york and then went out to other parts of the US to form new economic engines.
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