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bighand69
Zeihan on Geopolitics
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Comments by "bighand69" (@bighands69) on "" video.
Automation is going to develop on through the crisis period but it will not save many countries who simply do not have a good economic or demographic structure. in 20 years time most of what is produced will be automated, most homes will have automation, small local producers will have automation and we will see working humanoid style robots. None of that means that places that are entering a population decline can just magically automate their problems away. Innovation in technology is not just silicon valley.
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Automation will do remarkable things and it will transform the world over the next 20 years and it will follow the Ray Kurzweil trajectory but none of that will be a magic bullet for countries with bad demographics and industrial output that is based on bad foundations. America will go through an automation revolution as will many other countries but it will not impact the world for another 20 to 30 years. By the time that technology is there places like China and Russia will break up into about 50 different countries.
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It needs technology and industrial capabilities to exist. It was not a natural place that people settled in.
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Absolutely zero. It is a made up term for those that think they can plan economics. Those that go on about it would make you believe that a manufacturer can just produce something at no extra cost that lasts for 5 times longer. The reason why a fridge today costs $500 as opposed to $1500 is due to the fact the manufacturer has designed it to be more cheaply made. Nothing to do with planned obsolescence.
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Not at all. US industry is going to need IT people to run their systems. Especially manufacturing centers. Those machines use networking and operation systems to both control and monitor outputs. Even a building system today uses control systems. The key to success is to be flexible and to try and multidisciplinary your self. Your CS background could be the basis of that. There is nothing stopping you from adding a few extra career sets in their such as electronics, electrical systems or even mechanical systems. One of the big growth areas is electromechanical systems and that will be needed more than ever as US manufacturing is built out.
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Harsh? US birth rate goes up and down based on various factors. In the late 1970s US birth rate was 1.8 but but by the 1980s it was above 2 and stayed that way for nearly 25 years. German birth rate for the last 40 years has stayed below 2. Facts do not care about our feelings.
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Phoenix is one of those places that could use solar power to feed into the cooling system that houses use so that the main grid is not under as much load.
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Robots will come and we will start to see them in the 2020s but they will be like 1970s cellular phones in that they will be bulky, slow, prone to failure and extremely expensive. We now have prototype models in existence but they would be useless as products. By the way we are nowhere near the end of Moore's law.
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Those types of innovations are beyond our current level of science and technology. They will happen if humans do not destroy them self. To get what you want that would mean living longer, healthier but staying younger. So that women can be fertile into their fifties. There is a lot of complexity in that. We will with biotechnology, generics and information sciences improve health and create longevity but that does not mean it can keep people in a younger state for longer. It will more than likely mean that old age is better managed and diseases are more preventable.
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What do you mean by not realistic?
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Tesla will be fine as it makes a product that people want and there are no realistic alternatives. Elon sometimes just needs to not speak and say things.
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A single worker with automation will output far more products. Hence why a single US worker will be able to produce 100 times more products than they could 35 years ago and why we will see US industry starting to build out again. We are also going to see a new market place of small independent producers with micro factories that are able to output high quality locally produced goods at a lower price. 3D printing will be one of those areas as will next generation injection molding. Metal base injection moulding is already a thing for small businesses.
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