Comments by "hugh mungus" (@hughmungus2760) on "What the US-China War in the Pacific Could Look Like?" video.

  1. That was back then when the US still had all its manufacturing ability and didn't rely heavily on easy to disrupt digital infrastructure. Compared the US response to Covid with China's and you'll get a rough idea of what it'd be like. Its quite embrassing that hundreds of thousands of americans had to die before any serious efforts were put into stopping the outbreak. If this were a war, Taiwan would have already fallen for months before the first american responders arrived.
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  2.  @rchilde1  Taiwan's covid response is irrelevant because the US is not taiwan. You might as well try to compare race relations. Im specifically refering to the bumbling inefficiency of the US at getting anything done on a national level and how that'd mess with any effort at defending taiwan. Any btw, China has so far administered nearly 2 billion vaccine doses. So its doing a pretty good job I think.
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  3.  @bernardedwards8461  I cant see any nuclear armed state Not using its arsenal if it's survival legitimately challenged. This is one of the fundamental reasons why countries have nukes.
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  4. Long range cruise missiles have an abysmal time hitting moving targets, Especially in a target rich environment without guidence. Without reconnaissance satellites, which will be shot down in the first few hours of the war, the US would be shooting blindfolded and hoping it doesn't hit taiwanese forces.
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  5.  @boogie2025  Covid is a mass casualty event that requires the coordination of an entire country to combat. As demonstrated, the US is hopelessly divided over different mutually exclusive solutions to a very simple problem. In a total war, do you think people in the US will accept massive shortages, rationing, conscription and Real censorship for 'national security'? I can bet you half the country will say no just because their 'guy' isn't in office. The US will be fighting a war on it's own home front while trying to fight china.
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  6. If china's survival as a state were at stake, I see limited tactical use of nuclear weapons against US military targets.
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  7. maybe in the fever dreams of someone who reads too many Tom clancy novels.
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  8. Compare chinese response to natural disasters to US response and you'll know which side gets back into action first.
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  9. All these countries minus the US could barely field 1 amphibious assualt group between them and would be next to useless.
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  10.  @stephenyoung2742  The total cutting off of china between 1949 - 1979 didn't bring the country any closer to being overthrown. You should know by now that sanctions don't work against autocracies.
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  11.  @larrymiller4  Lol. Russia would have zero means of integrating even the most sparsely populated chinese territories that arent undeveloped deserts in xinjiang. Any other territory in china will be heavily populated by millions of chinese who can't speak a lick of russian for the most part don't share borders with russia. Russia will have to spend decades and trillions integrating a population that will hate it;s guts for backstabbing them. Sounds like you're getting geopolitical takes from video games.
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  12.  @boogie2025  china fully anticipates this and the population are basically conditioned from birth to expect the 'imperialist west' to go to war with them again. Thats the difference.
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  13. Because wallstreet capitalists own the US government and would never allow most of their wealth to evaporate.
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  14.  @rchilde1  lol. nope Thats a historical fact. the US never gets into a war unless it's directly attacked or its profitable.
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  15. this would imply the US needs to pre-emptively attack which would be even harder to justify.
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  16. Yeah, as demonstrated by the various crisis happening in the US right now. Even a moderately competant attack on US domestic infrastructure would cripple american warfighting ability. Can't project power abroad if your own states are in revolt.
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  17.  @Seastallion  China suffered a massive famine in the 50s and the CCP wasn't overthrown. You think losing trade with the US would do that today? Just remember, workers who were building exports for the US can be re-employed to build bombs and missiles too. While the US entirely lacks the infrastructure to replace the imports that come from China on short notice. The abysmal failure of the US to even secure facemasks at the start of Covid proves this.
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  18. @Bisayang Manok China's BRI infrastructure is hardly military in nature, with the exception of the port in Gwadar and the military base in Djibouti, you'll be bombing random country's civilian infrastructure and expanding the war dramatically. Also india really wouldn't want to attack Gwadar because that would result in a full scale land war with Pakistan where India would be fighting a 2 front war.
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  19.  @bryanb2886  Unless your plan is to go to total war with china by attacking civilian infrastructure and industry, thats not a option. The US really wouldn't want this to escalate and china retaliates by firing ICBMs at the US.
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  20.  @makinabetterplace  China spends just over 2% of GDP on defense, vs the US which spends over 3%. Talk about projection.
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  21. territorial sovereignty supersedes that and the better part of 1.4 billion people will agree.
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  22.  @seandelaney1700  Im merely riding the waves of western imperial decline call it trolling if you want but you know its true.
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  23.  @seandelaney1700  please making fun of you people's ignorance and hubris is payment enough. The fact you can't accept reality and go straight to namecalling is very reassuring that the west is in decline.
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  24.  @bryanb2886  yeah and little wonder why china is building hundreds of new ballistic missile silos. I doubt the US would want to get nuked over taiwan.
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  25. All modern US combat experience consists of is bombing insurgents and freedom of navigation patrols. There isn't a single active enlistee that has actual combat experience fighting against an enemy thats has even remotely modern hardware. In that respect the US and china are roughly equal. However unlike china, the US military is going woke.
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  26. Just looking at where china puts most of their money into should tell you that china isn't planning on fighting the US with conventional arms. Its' all 5th generational warfare. About creating calamaties for the opponent and ensuring you can survive calamaties better. In that respect the US is very much behind. Just look at the response to any natural disaster between both countries.
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  27. China is simply waiting for the US to effectively keel over from its numerous internal problems and imperial overreach. Time is on china's side.
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  28. No. Conscription ended in china for decades.
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  29. taiwan won't have an airforce 60 minutes after the first shots are fired. You think a bunch of handmedown F16s and older equipment stand a chance?
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  30. No, china has been producing 4th gen aircraft engines since 2010, its only the most advanced 5th gen engines china still has issues with.
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  31. What a war in 2021 would look like would be waking up one day and realising there internet, power and the ATMs have stopped working.
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  32. the EU has zero interest in fighting in the pacific and NATO is predominantly built to prevent the Russians steamrolling western europe.
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  33.  @virginccyy7645  china revealed it's hypersonic WZ8 for a reason. So far the US has no effective counter to hypersonic threats.
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  34. then a massive air bombardment campaign with swarms of drones.
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  35.  J. Gaulke  And any satellite is open game to be shot down with ground based kinetic kill vehicles.
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  36. So does china. Numerous times US spy satellites have been blinded by chinese land based lasers.
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  37.  @generalrendar7290  Lets face it china isn't going to be doing human wave attacks either. It will be a technological war of attrition in which the country that can keep functioning the longest wins. If all it takes for the US to go into total meltdown is some social media bots and a pandemic, Immagine what a determined attacker can do.
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  38.  @Seastallion  other than a reliance on foreign petrochemicals, china is pretty self sufficiant. Sure people might have to eat less meat because the soy used to grow pigs can't be imported, but thats hardly a critical problem. Financially china is better off than the US because unlike the US, china actually still has forex reserves and a central bank that hasn't lowered interest rates to 0, which is arguably whats wrecking havoc in westerner economies for over a decade. Debt in china is mostly demoninated in chinese currency and is owed between chinese state owned enterprises to other chinese state institutions which is like saying the left hand owing money to the right hand is bad.
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  39.  @Seastallion  further more the US needs the global supply chain to stay upright because most of the US economy is service based. Without imported foreign goods half of the US economy evaporates overnight.
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  40.  @Seastallion  Look at a graph of what comprises most of the US economy. Its services. AKA. Retail, insurance, ect. (and NOT manufacturing) but things that require manufactured inputs from abroad to function. This is why the US runs a trade deficit with practically every country in the world. Being a relatively small percentage of the US economy doesn't mean a massive segment of the US economy ISN'T reliant on a trade bottleneck. The things that the US does manufacture are heavily dependent on a globalised supply chain, much of which is situated in china. Consider the fact that all this flimflam about 'decoupling' with china has yeilded an INCREASE in US deficits with china goes to show how incapable the US is at actually being fully self sufficient. Fact of the matter is, without overseas supply chains the US stops functioning. Just like when the US couldnt even retool make its own facemasks at the start of covid19 for nearly a month. Lol for every flood theres a wildfire, tornado or hurricane in the US that does just as much damage. Thats part and parcel of being a continent sized country with a large population. If a seasonal flood with at most a few hundred dead is the worst you can point to. You're pretty desperate. As for living on borrowed time. China isn't the country thats stuck at 0% interest rates with no means to draw down it's spending, China isn't the country where half the people think the head of state is illegitimate and 1/3 openly wants secession. China isn't the country that can't even agree on something as simple as vaccinations and facemasks during a pandemic. If Covid has proven anything its that the US is projecting all of it's own insecurities onto china. China can manage its demographic issues because the solutions are technological. The US is screwed because all it's problems stem from a system that stopped working for 20+ years.
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  41. Between the antiship ballistic missiles and the fact that the US will be blind from having its satellites shot down, US carriers are going to be staying well away from the chinese coast making them about as effective as guam..
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  42. Yeah good luck flying B52s anywhere near the chinese mainland during a war. The handful of B2s wouldn't be able to do much.
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  43.  @chriswilton9976  short of nuclear weapons, the US would run out of missiles long before china runs out of things to bomb. Especially when you have no intel and are firing blindly at mobile targets deep inside enemy territory.
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  44.  @Dog.soldier1950  logistics? Considering the war is happening within spitting distance of the chinese mainland, its the US thats going to have logistics issues.
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  45.  @Dog.soldier1950  The vast majority of food imports into china is for animal feed and not for human consumption, if push comes to shove people eating less meat during wartime isn't world ending. Oil can still be imported via pipelines from russia and central asia. Not to mention china does sit atop the a large amount of shale which it's opting not to exploit because of the environmental impact.. which again, in a war becomes secondary.
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  46. I dont know. watching the US completely flounder in its Covid response and seeing the US military focus more on critical race theory than warfighting tells a different story.
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  47.  @CMAzeriah  Its really telling that some in the west still think Russia could be won over when you literally still have missiles pointed at them and regularly talk about overthrowing their government. Yeah. dissolve NATO and let Russia invade the rest of ukraine then you might have a point. Its as if you think Russians don't have any agency and are just pawns in your chessgame.
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  48.  @CMAzeriah  there are tons of easier places to invade that don't belong to a major nuclear power. If china wanted land it'd start trying to absorb something like Laos, Kirgizstan or Myanmar which nobody likes or cares about. The very idea that china which is set to have a shrinking population in coming decades needs more land is pretty silly. Historically Russia threats always came from the west not from the east and that isn't going to change any time soon.
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  49. the US does not have satellite based weapons. and rods from god only exist in science fiction. Low earth orbit is extremely fragile and it doesn't take much to knock out every satellite via the kessler syndrome.
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  50. To jam radio communications you'd need a stronger emitter to overpower the signal. Yeah. good luck getting a jammer into the taiwan straits once the shooting starts. And unlike what you see in the movies, analogue signals can't be hacked. As for combat experience. There isn't a naval officer alive in the US that has fought a naval war. And if you've read the latest news about the lack of combat readiness of the rank and file.
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  51. considering all this new tech from the US is all made by for profit companies, good chance its just vapourware designed to make a quick buck.
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  52. the US also sucks at asymetrical warfare. Stuff like cyber attacks, psychological warfare or even handling a pandemic.
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  53. This might be the case Now. but not so much in 15 years. Furthermore this assumes the US will see it coming and was prepared for it. Who knows, if some major political instability occurs inside the US from another disputed election and the US has to quell secession movements And/Or gets bogged down in another war somewhere else. China will capitalise on that opportunity.
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  54.  @jackattack2608  No, if you even have a basic understand of how the dam is built you'd know its a gravity dam which means it's sheer mass even if it were reduced to rubble would block the flow of water. Nothing short of multiple direct hits with nuclear weapons would actually 'break' the dam. You might cut power to a province or two. But so could a high altitude EMP.
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  55.  @CedarHunt  lasers currently could barely shoot down a subsonic drone because you need to keep a pinpoint focus on target for several seconds before it can destory it. Given that it takes less than several seconds for a supersonic missile to bridge the gap between the maximum range of a laser. Its simply a non-starter.
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  56. and if a little 'accident' were to happen to them? Don't forget a the damage a shipborne fire can do considering the bonholm.
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  57. with things like distributed aperture reconaissance drones/satellites, finding a carrier today is alot easier than it was 10 years ago.
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  58. I think US never really sees losing Taiwan as an existential threat, hence it never plays its nuclear card. The current existential threat facing the US is domestic and could see US losing it's democracy.
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  59.  @aleksandarrudic3694  I guess I should rephrase that it would be the 'dejure' end of the american hegemony as it would be proven without a shadow of a doubt that the US was unable meet its defense obligations. As for actually fighting the war, china merely needs to show Taiwan that the US is not coming to save it and force a surrender. Unlike, say afghanistan or vietnam. Taiwanese aren't hardened jihadists/revolutionaries who aren't afraid of fighting to the death. If they were forced into some kind of political concession, like renouncing any notion of ever declaring independence or handing over to the mainland control over their media and financial institutions, the mainland can effectively control taiwan without ever putting boots on the ground. China's timeframe for such a takeover is practically unlimited because from the mainland's point of view, the power differential between the US and china is going to cross paths in the coming decades all on its own.
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  60.  @boogie2025  If the US intends on actually fighting the war and not just giving up 2 months in then yes.
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  61. You forget that china also has a massive network of rivers. Not that rivers make a huge amount of difference once railways became a thing.
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  62. The US is dispersed around the world and cannot afford to turn its back lest countries like Russia, Iran and North korea see a weakness to exploit. Combined with the abysmal failure of the US in dealing with infrastructure failure at home. A coordinated attack by china and other anti-US beligerants on US infrastructure through cyber, biological and psychological warfare would cause the US to fold in on itself trying to fight on all fronts at once.
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  63. WW2 naval tactics are useless in modern naval warfare. and logistics are far less important when the battlefield is less than 500km from your shores.
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  64. the balance of power is shifting and in 10-20 years the US would lose the ability to defend taiwan.
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  65.  @rmar127  Putin wouldn't buy into that deal because the moment China is dealt with, Russia is on the chopping block again, He's been around long enough to know the US' tricks.
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  66.  @aleksandarrudic3694  You know the american hegemony is over when china successfully invades Taiwan. This will likely happen because of serious political turmoil in the US, Such as a disputed election turning violent on a large scale.
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  67. You're assuming the ones in charge in china care about money. Its about power.
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  68. once the war in space goes hot, nobody will have satelllites curtesy of the kessler syndrome.
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  69. The US has nothing to offer Russia except empty promisses and continued meddling in Russian politics. You think the Russians are stupid or something?
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  70.  @seandelaney1700  Shaky group? only if you only get your news from western opinion peices. FDI this year in china has been a record high and despite all the talk of decoupling trade volumes have also hit new records. Again. westerners are huffing so much china collapse copium ever since Covid laid bare the shortcomings of the west. I know for a fact that as soon as the QE spigot gets turned off the US economy is over. So you're just going to stew in inflation for years to come.
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