Comments by "M gronich" (@mgronich948) on "How a China-Taiwan War Could Ravage the Island, the Pacific and the Global Economy" video.

  1. The poll by a Taiwanese university is not a choice between should Taiwan join china or declare independence. There are two other major choices. One is maintain the status quo and decide to join China at a later data and the other is maintain the status quo and be independent at a later date. Less than 5% of Taiwanese want independence in the near future.
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  2. Taiwan and the US know what would provoke China into invading. Mainly it's Taiwan declaring official independence, as opposed to the defacto independence it has now. So far Taiwan has not done so. But if in the not too distant future, the US wanted a proxy war and a full out economic war with China, then the US will pressure Taiwan into declaring independence. This will be a repeat of Ukraine and it would be horrible certainly for Taiwan but also the US and the world. The US recently threatened to invade Iran over alleged cyber attacks on Albania. So will Iran or China be next? Or both at the same time while the proxy war with Russia is still raging?
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  3. This is always phrased as what if China attacks Taiwan? This is fundamentally a conflict between China and the USA. Both sides know that. And most likely this will be a full out economic/sanctions war , a Ukraine 2.0. TSMC and intel are buiding huge fabs in Ariz. Since semiconductor shipments will stop at the start of the war, it's most likely the US will not provoke China by pressuring Taiwan to declare independence until those fabs are up and running. If Taiwan wants to avoid a war, they will delay getting it's fab running.
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  4. There is another unasked question, what if the US did not command Taiwan to declare independence and China did not attack?
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