Comments by "Siana Gearz" (@SianaGearz) on "The 300mm Silicon Wafer Transition" video.
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Were the lines shut down? Recently - i don't think so. Most of the 200mm shutdown happened decade+ ago. The industry was moving to 300mm, so it wasn't a temporary problem, it was lack of future viability seemingly.
Except then it turned out everything needs legacy semiconductor devices huh, and the total consumption of electronics keeps growing. Hindsight 20-20. By the time it became evident that there may be a problem on our hands several years ago, there wasn't much to be done about it other than just to try to move things to fresher nodes. Try.
And i mean temporary problems which last for 5+ years aren't so temporary if there's no money to be made in the interim, you run dry, you run bankrupt. Where do you get money from, what kind of an investor pitch is it when you say "help us maintain ancient obsolete stuff, trust me bro it'll matter someday again, just a rough patch bro, we know it's looking like what we're making is useless in 5 years but we just need to sit it out bro". Line on a chart going down tends to be a death sentence.
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@UpLateGeek I am PAINFULLY aware of 2 year lead times, you don't have to tell me. I don't think anything substantial was shut down during pandemic, or i haven't heard of that. I know car manufacturers have dropped some orders, and then scrambled to get them back, but it wouldn't cause fabs and suppliers to get closed. They couldn't get new orders in because the capacities were already booked by some other semiconductors.
Fundamentally, it's unnecessary that anything got shut down to get us where we got. Ingredient 1, is that electronics consumption keeps growing year to year by maybe a couple percent. 2, everything needs legacy components, jellybeans, classics, which are manufactured using old tech and which are not economical or impossible to move to new tech. 3, so as total electronics demand and demand for modern electronics is increasing, it drags alongside with it a demand in legacy components upwards. 4, in 2020, worldwide electronics sales shot up by 14%, which is WILD, pretty much never happened before; and the demand is remaining high even now.
Given the huge jump in demand, some end device manufacturers cancelling their chip orders doesn't matter and wouldn't cause production stops, as the total demand increase is more than high enough to absorb any capacities that were in use previously.
I have heard a conjecture somewhere that the problem with legacy component production capacity was a long time coming simply because demand keeps growing, but the legacy capacity is all we've had for a decade; but it wasn't expected to actually hit until 5+ years later, and more gradually, and was pushed to now and urgent by a sudden jump in demand. Do keep in mind that we have some overcorrection on our hands, that electronics manufacturers which thought that they didn't need to keep extra stock of jellybeans and were buying them on a weekly basis as needed (Just in Time manufacturing), now suddenly do, and many have decided to keep a year of advance stock that they're currently filling up; so the situation will take a long while to relax a little.
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