Comments by "Siana Gearz" (@SianaGearz) on "The 300mm Silicon Wafer Transition" video.

  1. 2
  2. 1
  3.  @UpLateGeek  I am PAINFULLY aware of 2 year lead times, you don't have to tell me. I don't think anything substantial was shut down during pandemic, or i haven't heard of that. I know car manufacturers have dropped some orders, and then scrambled to get them back, but it wouldn't cause fabs and suppliers to get closed. They couldn't get new orders in because the capacities were already booked by some other semiconductors. Fundamentally, it's unnecessary that anything got shut down to get us where we got. Ingredient 1, is that electronics consumption keeps growing year to year by maybe a couple percent. 2, everything needs legacy components, jellybeans, classics, which are manufactured using old tech and which are not economical or impossible to move to new tech. 3, so as total electronics demand and demand for modern electronics is increasing, it drags alongside with it a demand in legacy components upwards. 4, in 2020, worldwide electronics sales shot up by 14%, which is WILD, pretty much never happened before; and the demand is remaining high even now. Given the huge jump in demand, some end device manufacturers cancelling their chip orders doesn't matter and wouldn't cause production stops, as the total demand increase is more than high enough to absorb any capacities that were in use previously. I have heard a conjecture somewhere that the problem with legacy component production capacity was a long time coming simply because demand keeps growing, but the legacy capacity is all we've had for a decade; but it wasn't expected to actually hit until 5+ years later, and more gradually, and was pushed to now and urgent by a sudden jump in demand. Do keep in mind that we have some overcorrection on our hands, that electronics manufacturers which thought that they didn't need to keep extra stock of jellybeans and were buying them on a weekly basis as needed (Just in Time manufacturing), now suddenly do, and many have decided to keep a year of advance stock that they're currently filling up; so the situation will take a long while to relax a little.
    1
  4. 1
  5. 1
  6. 1
  7. 1
  8. 1
  9. 1
  10. 1