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  65. More on Verbove: "Brigadier General Oleksandr Tarnavskyi, the Commander of the Tavria (Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts) Operational and Strategic Group of Forces said in an interview with CNN that Ukrainian forces had broken through in Verbove and that Ukrainians continued to advance. He reinstated that Ukraine’s long-term objective was to break Russia’s “land bridge” linking Crimea with mainland Russia. Tarnavskyi also said that although the counteroffensive was not going as “fast as expected,” winter would not slow Ukrainians down. He claimed that although wet and soggy ground would impact the employment of heavy armoured vehicles, the Ukrainian approach focuses on small unit tactics without significant armoured support." Rochan comments: "Firstly, one cannot talk about a breakthrough near Verbove. Ukrainians indeed breached Russian defensive lines west of the village, but no significant follow-on actions ensued to exploit this development. Ukrainians employed armoured combat vehicles to support their ground operations in the area, but no confirmed reports surfaced about any frontline changes resulting from these actions. If the trajectory of the current frontline shifts is any indication of future territorial gains, the battle for Verbove is unlikely to be quick and easy. Ukrainians fought for Robotyne for weeks, and we know that Russians deployed reinforcements near Verbove and Robotyne to slow Ukrainians down. Moscow’s approach is akin to what Ukrainians were doing last year: trade space for time, as Russians realise that Ukrainians could not generate sufficient momentum for quick gains and could not sustain the current tempo of operations. Secondly, it is too early to expect a breakthrough “after Tokmak”. Assuming that Ukrainians will reach the city in autumn, their progress will likely be slow due to their approach (small unit attacks). Russians will, therefore, have time to adjust their posture and deploy reinforcements."
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  85. Rochan comment to the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive: "The attack on multiple axes probably seeks to exert maximum pressure on Russian forces and force them to respond by moving their formations north of Dnieper. There they would be very susceptible to Ukrainian high-precision strikes and continuous attempts to hinder Russian ground lines of communications. It is also too early to discuss what the end goal might be. Ultimately, Ukrainians would want to push Russians over the Dnieper and liberate the northern part of the Kherson Oblast. However, we do not think that this is currently feasible. Perhaps the objective of Monday’s assault is to probe the Russian response and force them to commit more resources in this direction. This approach would also fit into recent comments about how Ukrainians want to bleed Russians out logistically before committing to a larger offensive.mLastly, let’s not forget about the domestic factor. Ukrainians have been “promised” a counterattack in Kherson for weeks, and maybe the political-military establishment felt it needed to deliver to boost morale. The offensive is running contrary to our expectations and forecasts. We have been saying for a month that a large-scale Ukrainian counterattack is unlikely due to the increased presence of Russian military units in the Kherson Oblast. We are surprised by today’s events. However, we still maintain that this is not the attack everyone has been awaiting. Our sources in Ukraine share this view. The next few days will show whether this assessment is correct." Ukraine Conflict Monitor (Rochan Consulting): https://rochan-consulting.com/ukraine-conflict-monitor-introduction/ 📌 Support GTBT on Patreon! https://www.patreon.com/GTBT ➡ Paypal: paypal.me/GoodTimesBadTimes
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  278. The numbers are the paragraphs. 1) How is the IMF GDP chart misleading? It's slowing down and that's what I said in the video. But the problem is that China is slowing too fast, too soon. Turkmenistan (China's equivalent in PPP per capita) is now growing at 6.3%. Wow, impressive! China is below 5% and falling. You compare it with the US. Fine, but the US did not have the problem of rising consumption (on the contrary, it enjoyed it), which is why the US model was sustainable and the Chinese started to crumble (as the whole video presents the evidence for). 2) And you're wrong. The US debt to GDP is at 250%, while China's (which is far more backward) is over 300%. Japan is bad, but it is still a much richer society. 3) Sorry, to save time I'm just going to chat gpt here. Why is deflation worrying? Expectation of further price falls: When prices fall, consumers may expect products to be even cheaper in the future. This leads them to postpone purchases in anticipation of better deals, reducing current demand. Rising real value of debt: In a deflationary situation, the value of money rises so that people in debt feel that their debt is an increasing burden relative to their income. This leads to a reduction in spending as they try to pay off their debts instead of consuming. Falling corporate profits: Deflation often means that companies have to cut prices, which affects their profit margins. In response, they may reduce employment, investment and also wages, negatively affecting consumers' incomes. Less stable incomes lead them to save rather than spend. Consumer sentiment deteriorates: If deflation persists, the economy may stagnate or fall into recession. This situation fosters pessimism and encourages consumers to save for further economic problems. 4) The country is producing less? Are you kidding me? It's exports are skyrocketing, the population just can't afford it (generally speaking) and the policy is to push it abroad. Also, there wasn't one sentence where I implied that "China is collapsing". Unfortunately, your post shows that you've done little research on the subject, you've implied things that I didn't say or that the graphs are misleading (how can official statistics be misleading?), and you've come to flawed conclusions based on your (I assume) biased position. And at the end of the day, I take responsibility for the research I publish, you can do whatever you like by implying that I lied.
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