Comments by "John L." (@johnl.7754) on "Asianometry" channel.

  1. I think a lot people (including me) thought it was about government policies that was near sighted from the title.
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  2. Because the bank/IMF has different objectives (get money back) than the borrowers (growth) but as the lender of last resort it’s the fault of the borrowers for having to turn towards them.
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  3. Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore are all much higher income countries which is normal for lower birth rates so don’t think Confucius ideology has anything to do with it. China is one of few country that will grow old before getting rich (per capital basis).
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  4. Even if Hong Kong had manufacturing much of it would have moved to China Mainland after joining together since the management can hire much cheaper workers there and expand to China domestic market as well. One export Hong Kong“manufacturing” did have that did very well overseas was making films, it was the #1 foreign language film in the USA (and other parts of western world) for a good number of years but it disappeared after joining with China because of course easily to target that huge market then overseas market.
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  5. Interesting since my grand parents and both direct families including my mom/dad (as small children) retreated with the KMT to Taiwan. Do not know much of the history since I was born in the USA.
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  6. I think how fast a country can rebound from COVID lockdown (outside of government aid) might be determined on what type of economy it has with manufacturing responding quickest (since orders backlog keeps growing) and international travel the slowest. I think I saw those countries (not including developed countries) that depend on travel openings up the fastest.
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  7. I think Intel impact in Magdeburg for better or worse then TSMCs impact will depend greatly on what other functions is done there besides manufacturing (like R&D, Sales….).
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  8. It will be interesting to see if China will be able to become the next low cost big competitor in semiconductors as USA try to hinder its advancement.
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  9. I lived a few years in China and was surprised to find that the milk market had many western brands made outside China (Germany, New Zealand…). They were often the lowest cost also which surprised me since most imported food items were of course much more expensive. I thought maybe it was because of government subsidies/minimum price to farms had them producing too much which they didn’t care.
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  10. Thanks for the report as an ABC (American Born Chinese) I once in a while here my parents talk about this, good to understand it more clearly. My parents retreated to Taiwan when they were very little. My grandfather was a general so was able to arrange for the family to go there. Supposedly they were materially well off (had driver, car...to keep up appearances) but food wise was sort of tight. My mom got into a good USA masters college and was allowed to stay afterwards so my knowledge is limited about Taiwan.
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  11. Many private businesses in China is still 6 days
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  12. Never been to Tokyo Disney but from other Disney YouTube videos it seems like people enjoyed it better (better value especially hotels) then World Disney.
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  13. I think that it is a bad idea long term for the technology transfer otherwise Taiwan (and other countries) will end up with low skill/paying service/tourism type jobs.
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  14. Vian Abdullah met a well off Indonesian Chinese foreign exchange student in the USA whose family had to change their last name to assimilate. His family has been in Indonesia for multiple generations.
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  15. Ritual Objects: easy semiconductor chips (more advanced the better)
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  16. Don’t know if it is a waste of money with so many countries targeting to build what seems like cookie cutter semiconductor fabs. At the end don’t know if it will be a gain for the semiconductor companies (more profit) or for the consumers (low prices) .
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  17. For better or worse when wages no longer rising then many politicians (worldwide) will focus on nationalism. I think Taiwan low wages as you said is due greatly to being so close to China and having similar culture/language so it is easier for the brightest to open up their business or to work in China especially since China government gives many incentives to attract those individuals.
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  18. What Wowed me the most lately is the AI that can draw pictures from simple descriptions that you give it. It is better than most done by human graphic designers. It should be mostly a AI software advancement then hardware but not certain.
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  19. Don’t know if America can be completely free market when its major competitor countries are not.
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  20. People in Asia do like to dress up a lot more then in at least the USA in general no matter which social economic group that they belong to. My friend in China asked why do Americans dress so simply (tee shirt…). Maybe in the west people are ok with how much money they have and don’t think that they need to compare against others as much. What do you think?
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  21. But if ASML (or whom ever is makes the required machines) is restricted from importing to China then not sure how useful it will be. Have not read the article but have heard of this issue before for years.
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  22. Psychology is a good major/profession in Asia I think.
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  23. I don’t know if AMD selling of the technology is a bigger threat or that ARM has supposedly lost control of its China subsidiary to the management (with supposedly backing from government). Unless one company or country controls the entire industry (like Japan with high end cameras) it is hard to keep China from acquiring at least the older version of the tech since there is competition of who will get access to Chinas big market.
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  24. In both cases the Japanese company was in bad financial condition.
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  25. Wonder if advancements of much cheaper and plentiful drones and smart guided missiles will spell the doom of tanks like planes did to battleships at sea.
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  26. Heard that the flooding in northern China this month will contribute to rice shortages as well
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  27. Heard Samsung was pretty close
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  28. The global supply chain is also what has helped China advance so fast from technology transfers, trade….It is only when China starts acting badly that the US pull back.
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  29. This is why no company no matter how big or well run can compete against a state owned or backed company since they have almost unlimited resources and do not need to make a profit.
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  30. Should have bought TSMC stock when you did the first video :-/
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  31. Also more code is often not better
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  32. With how much money the military spends on stuff sort of surprised that margins are relatively low that major players (like intel) wouldn’t want to get involved.
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  33.  @thedarkmoon2341  the one problem might be then having to convince more uneducated (on nuclear energy) local people from protesting against it not just China but everywhere.
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  34. Sometimes there’s hostile nationalism flare ups in China affecting international companies also might be more afraid of losing technology.
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  35. Probably because Puyi and his supporters were no longer a threat to the CCP.
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  36. Maybe it’s because the chips they make has a very high fixed cost (Billions for Fab and Millions for ASML machines) and low variable cost so they decided that better keep the machines churning out chips no matter what.
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  37. Sorry about that I took them all
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  38. Looks like unless US government gives subsidies on each chip production (or force US companies to use US Fabs) otherwise not sure how US fabs can compete long term.
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  39. “Billion Dollar code” a Netflix series I saw mentioned Sun Microsystems and its CEO/Founder (I think) and some German software developers with a lawsuit over creation of google maps. Good movie
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  40. With the exorbitant luxury spending that the rulers (including extended families) and government officials spend I can understand why the people of those countries demand these essential free stuff.
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  41. I saw on another YouTube video that Hikvision is also exporting complete facial recognition systems to African authoritarian governments to keep control over the population.
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  42. It’s probably a good thing China didn’t rush into it early on but do think it is a good option for the future.
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  43. Good research not much videos/articles mention the old history regarding yahoo/alibaba and Ant. I knew about it since back then was considering buying yahoo stock just based on their alibaba holding. I was not so positive on the Ant group prospects (even before the stopping of ipo) since in the past the government/regulators have limited their growth/profitability since in order to grow rapidly they would need to grab market share or profits from many state run financial companies.
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  44.  @Deguile  could be....even if a SE Asia company gets the IP they won’t be able to scale up selling the same product globally as easily as a Chinese company.
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  45. Maybe with lessons learned (Asian Crisis and other high inflation times) during this current worldwide (USA, Europe, China…..) economic slowdown many emerging markets countries like Indonesia, Brazil,…. In Latin America and Asia seems to be holding up quite well.
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  46. shazmosushi hmmmm interesting I’ve heard this term I think since college years (20 something years ago).....don’t like CCP but not sure if will change since been using it for sure long time.
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  47. I think the success was also because Taiwan is such a small country so it attracts less negative protectionism notice and also USA has been an ally. TSMC exports are mainly now first sent to China and other assembly countries before being shipped to rest of world which also disguises the trade balances for the average people.
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  48.  @nick21614  Nothing wrong with that as Japan kicked out the Qing after winning the war.
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  49. With AI and automation it might not be a problem with low natural children birth rates as industry, military..... use it. Like most things you can’t have everything at the same time.
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  50. Another lost opportunity by Xerox Parc that some other person/company successfully commercialized
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  51. Thailands time to move out of the middle income trap will be getting harder and harder because its population is getting older fast because of low birth rates.
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  52. It’s hard to say for how long grievances should be held by future generations for what happened in the previous generations lives. I do think things that happened longer ago should be given less significance then what happened more recently.
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  53.  @larryheath1195  I blame more of the US companies giving China and many other countries the technology for short term profit.
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  54. In the US I think it is more a battle over illegal/undocumented immigrants then legal ones. Probably because legal ones as a percentage of total population is still quite small.
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  55. Foot binding is terrible but people of that time would have thought today’s practice of cosmetic surgery (all over the body) is terrible. The only thing that is better about cosmetic surgery is that it is usually not forced at a young age. People’s desires and aspirations do not change (do what the rich and famous do) just what is or is not in fashion even at great pain/cost.
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  56. Wonder if China movie theaters will face the similar technology problem of studios going direct to peoples homes via the internet as is starting to happening the USA.
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  57. Well one thing I can predict about the future from when he created this video is: That he got his 100,000+ subscribers
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  58. Fwiw just saw an wsj article that might hinder Chinas advance in chips “China Wants a Chip Machine From the Dutch. The U.S. Said No. Biden administration, continuing a Trump policy, seeks to stop ASML from selling China machines crucial to advanced microprocessors”
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  59. Probably because just like he said to get the lowest cost it is centralized to where it can give the company the best value.
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  60. Communist countries around the world have the worst manners and since only the most ruthless have money to travel overseas. I think it is improving over time as more middle class in China gets money to travel overseas.
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  61. Interesting wonder if the Japanese management policies were different in Korea than in Taiwan which warranted the sharp difference in relations afterwards.
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  62. Wow their stock has jumped quite a bit last couple years
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  63. Read a couple years ago that thailand rice production might decline from lack of workers (population aging and moving to cities) wonder if rice production has become less manual and more mechanical.
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  64. Yeah he already has 135k subscribers
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  65. Communism with Chinese characteristics is the best model for politicians since it gives them absolute power indefinitely while not being held directly responsible for the citizens welfare.
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  66.  @Nathan-jh1ho  Maybe because Korea was a country while Taiwan was a small part of China.
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  67. But by the time they retire your generation will probably want to keep things as currently is since your next in line and would like to keep it as it has been. Sadly worldwide things will not change without major war, depression...to shake things up.
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  68. Interesting video and topic. Wondering if corruption has gotten better or worse since the handover.
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  69. What do you think about feasibility of Solid State Batteries ?
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  70. Well Japan has overall been doing quite well even now. Shrinking population size and old population is its main problem.
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  71. around the desalination plant.
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  72. Wonder if being fabless would help or hinder their reign on the top
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  73. Maybe Bitcoin/Cypto downtown in price help in reduce the demand (of certain chips) when mining becomes no longer profitable.
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  74. Yeah I agree with the government influence/control over the major airlines they will decide which planes get purchased.
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  75. I have a relative that was studying Mandarin in a Beijing University then she got interested in studying IT/programming as a degree but found out that she can’t as an foreigner.
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  76. Yeah which is why his non semiconductor/hardware videos has more views. Hopefully he gets paid more (cpm) for the high IQ videos which are his signature ones.
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  77. With enough $$$ or political support it will be fine. I think this still beats growing alfalfa or pretty much anything else in Arizona
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  78.  David Dieni  it’s easier catching up with a technology that’s a little behind then starting from scratch.
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  79. When corporations were allowed to donate unlimited money to political action committees (pacs).
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  80. It’s reported that TSMC is planning a factory in Arizona.
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  81. More people have died in other energy production methods mostly from much higher pollution or mining
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  82. Time to upgrade your computer 😂
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  83. I would think ASML would probably have exclusive agreements with some suppliers.
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  84. when income rises to a certain degree I think people start comparing themselves to others around them or more recently what they see on tv/internet. Also USA wages may be higher (compared to much of world) but so is much of the necessary expenses like education, medical, housing...which is why some Americans are retiring overseas.
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  85. Too bad though that software requires a lot less workers then hardware.
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  86. Would have never thought that it would be worth over 3x Intel or any other cpu manufacturers.
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  87. Right now the rising nutrition of the poorer countries might counter iq decline. Also decline in religion in some countries might spur innovation.
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  88. It’s not bizarre since big manufacturing companies will go to wherever (it is legal to) if the government gives enough incentives (subsidies, grants…) or disincentives (barriers to entry, tariffs…) to produce outside the country.
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  89. Maybe AI will decide for itself what it wants for its own next generation hardware 🤔
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  90. Aging and declining population is probably the problem not what your thinking
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  91. Easier said then done when there’s a oversupply of Fabs (maybe in a couple years with so many countries giving subsidies to build them) or when the Fabs are no longer cutting edge.
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  92. Management has changed also as the founders stepped down
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  93. I’m pretty sure that if not enough labor that tsmc can go to other countries to manufacture what they need.
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  94. I think most East Asia problems can be traced to high cost of housing/land. If the cost is lowered then government can either tax more or adult children can support elderly more and also they can afford to have more children. It seems like East Asia compared to the western developed world has much higher housing costs compared to average income.
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  95. Doubt they can manufacture what the major players are creating since they make niche chips and don’t have the latest technology.
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  96.  @OtakuSanel  China is successful in promising future access to its market (as it has been doing for decades) so even companies currently getting screwed doesn’t dare complain too much.
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  97. Most of AI advancements initially will probably be used to substitute for human intelligence which might not be a bad thing with low birth rates in developed countries (plus China and a couple others) and a labor shortage with large amounts of elderly people needing healthcare and assisted living care.
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  98. and having a big company go bankrupt because of a hedge fund takeover battle (regardless of them winning or losing) is so American.
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  99. I have close friends in Wuhan (from living there many years but not during COVID) who suspects that the numbers are much higher from personal observation.
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  100.  @MrCiaranm  your right William Jefferson Clinton (né Blythe III; born August 19, 1946) is an American politician who served as the 42nd president of the United States from 1993 to 2001 The Soviet Union,[n] officially the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics[o] (USSR),[p] was a country that spanned much of Eurasia from 1922 to 1991.
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  101. If it becomes export bans then there should be import bans of same items (from China) after new manufacturing sources have been setup (to protect them from undercut of prices).
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  102. Many of the old companies also had very expensive liabilities (like pensions) to be able to survive in the ultra competitive new tech markets.
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  103. Probably catching up with tsmc is much easier then asml is no other reason is that harder to recruit Europeans then Taiwanese to join them partly with access to young women.
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  104. I think it was talked about in previous video.
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  105. Probably because so many chip fabs that was running decades ago closed down because can not compete anymore.
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  106.  @LuisAldamiz  Since Top Chip Fabs are in East Asia it should not be a problem if US government let them in because many from their homeland is already in USA and they have a good perception of life in USA especially for their children (not as tough education standards in school).
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  107.  @LuisAldamiz  yeah my retired stepfather was one of them working for a Xerox fab in SoCal before it closed down (couldn’t compete).
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  108.  @andersjjensen  Semiconductor includes all of this any more not just CPUs which like you said TSMC/Taiwan is leading. Discrete (Diodes, Signal Transistors, Power Transistors, Rectifiers, and Thyristors) Sensors Optoelectronics (Displays, Lamps, Image Sensors) Integrated Circuits Analog (General Purpose and Application Specific) Memory (DRAM, NAND, and Others) Logic
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  109. Wonder if what canon/Nikon learned about making lithography machines helped them in creating the high end cameras.
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  110. Wonder how well known this is in China?
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  111. With many blue collar jobs (in China and more developed world) now seems to make more money (and lower unemployment) then the average white collar jobs don’t know how many generations it will take to change perceptions.
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  112. Yup similar to US except with the stock market. China seems to finally maybe trying to stop putting air in the bubble.
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  113. Yeah pretty sure that the age limits will not apply for him.
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  114.  @terrie001  I agree but same as having farming there. TSMC (and other chips companies ) just going there because most state subsidies
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  115.  @codeagent47  I agree because my father who used to work for a chips fab (Xerox in Southern California) until it was closed down thought that Taiwan workers were harder working then his fab. It is probably because working at TSMC in Taiwan is prestigious and critical for national economy while in the USA it is just another job.
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  116. @Another-Address$50 then probably worth more than $100 now
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  117. Wish google maps can include closed roads/highways from government works data
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  118. All 7-11’s worldwide are owned (or franchised) to a Japanese company. It was a surprise to me the first time I heard it.
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  119. https://youtu.be/U1cF9QCu1rQ I saw it in this video
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  120. I suspect though that the employee needs to be powerful enough or have strong connections in order to pull it off.
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  121. I think without CCP actions much of the backlash would not have happened since the overseas Chinese population is still small enough especially in the developed world to have created the negative reaction. It’s also because the media likes to over represent whenever a small group of people support or against something and the CCP knows how to mobilize (probably by $$$) a some people.
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  122. https://youtu.be/SAyFP_4EvI8 the Super Bowl ad
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  123. and Nigeria…I thought can it be that only the rich of society that can watch it (have time/money) but there’s a lot of cheap mobile phones these days.
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  124. Afraid of investing in semiconductor industry long term since so many fabs have opened or in process of opening because of a lot of governments (USA, Europe, India, China…) giving a lot of subsidies. Of course they are smarter then me so can be wrong
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  125. Well they are getting a great subsidy according to the video
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  126. Designated Darwin as the only legal gambling zone in Australia like Las Vegas was until a couple decades ago.
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  127. Interesting Thanks
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  128. Of advancement of Bitcoin chip probably depends on the price of Bitcoin itself to see if feasible to get the newest and latest chips.
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  129. Interesting Analysis
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  130.  @mitonaarea5856  well it’s the same as much of Europe trade off good social services from not having a large military. Japan and Germany also have experienced how having a large nationalist military can destroy the country.
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  131. My stepfather was working for Xerox fab in Southern California but it also shut down. Good thing he was around retirement age. Unless US Dollar drastically falls or government subsidies continues long term or other things change will be interesting to see if the Fabs that are built this time will still be in use after it is no longer cutting edge.
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  132. “AT&T to kill off landline phone service for most people by 2029” zdnet Just happened to see this news today.
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  133. @Imperator Caesar Traianus Hadrianus Augustus or if Aliens decide AI is better for the Universe than the existing lead command system (humans) we might know as well 😁
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  134. Too bad that TSMC fabs here doesn’t give you indoor tours even if for older fabs.
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  135. Wonder is new ASML machines have a warranty period?
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  136. If nothing else Taiwan wages should rise with their baby boomers retirement and need for medical assistance. Blue collar workers though wages will probably rise more.
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  137. American car companies (except Tesla) seems to have a hard time going high end/luxury as lower cost competitors take lower end market share except of course for Trucks sector.
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  138. India should rise if for no other reason then many of the current powers are getting old fast and will be declining soon because of it. Will Automation/AI be enough to counter this I am not sure.
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  139. As an Asian American I don’t like it either even though I like Gummy Bears.
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  140. People change according to the economy, labor market….but if it does any Americans start doing those things then it means things have turned worse.
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  141. From the video it seems like they tried (putting their name on imported machines) but never got the exclusive legal rights. Nokia did even better by selling the dying mobile phone part of company to Microsoft.
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  142. Probably better for IBM to license it (if actually good) since they might have hiccups/delays building out the fabs.
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  143.  @hotchi1566  Because of higher income/market there to eliminate the import tariffs/taxes
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  144. Won’t be surprised if it’s first discovered for NASA or some other government agency.
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  145. Or the NBA playoffs 😊
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  146. But if there’s a large ban then they might be competing against a large part of the developed world not just a single country which will have more capital, people…
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  147. 2003 film “Lost in Translation.” by Bill Murray's character
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  148.  @declangallagher1448  except for oil
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  149. Define powerful 😄
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  150. Most places I think has enough natural water sources for people to use it is mainly a problem of agriculture production which causes the need for desalination plants.
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  151. At the end the consumers will benefit with lower prices but the tax payers and the chip manufacturers will probably suffer with industry oversupply.
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  152. Yeah I am wondering about that also 🤔
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  153. Is the weather community excited or worried about using AI in predicting weather?
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  154. Taiwan might be too small size/population wise to be the top semiconductor country since it is very diverse and large.
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  155. The smaller countries hope is they can play off each of the big countries off each other and benefit from it.
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  156.  @MrClaudiuzz9  yeah now many financial analysts are hoping China will do the same once the Covid lockdowns end
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  157. Well at least he got the photos right. I lived there a couple years
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  158. What about Fabless Semiconductor Design Companies any progress?
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  159. Had shark meat (not fin) once in thailand it tasted terrible (putrid)
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  160. Call it Semi Asianometry
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  161. Especially if they can’t buy the latest as asml machines
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  162. Wonder if it is part of the reason KMT party won the recent election. I think as most of the brains (research and marketing, management….) stays in Taiwan not much is lost.
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  163.  @turtlesoup8134  I think China government might want their citizens to spend like the Americans (to be less reliant on exports) instead of all the money to housing.
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  164. Same with a lot of other countries in the world which incentives the companies to manufacture in China to gain access to their market.
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  165.  @greatwolf5372  As an Asian American it is probably because we have blended into American culture and are probably poorer then the international Asian students.
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  166. Was thinking the same thing…like what they thought about using in space.
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  167.  @jennypai1776  not sure about it but did read that many people (probably rich and/or highly educated) from Hong Kong were immigrating there.
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  168. Then nothing will be invented since 2 years is nothing over the cost of inventing something new.
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  169. Yeah I think for years IBM is near the tops in number of patents but their business hasn’t been that great for a long time.
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  170. Heard that Sony purchased Columbia Pictures (now Sony pictures) in 1989 partly as a result of losing the VCR wars.
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  171. It might depend where the R&D is located since leading industry chips seems to change every few years. US importance to Taiwan in many ways also means if there needs to be give and take to maintain the mutual beneficial relationship.
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  172. Having semiconductor manufacturing won’t do much for growth (and will be a waste of money). It is for political reasons.
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