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John Adam
FRANCE 24 English
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Comments by "John Adam" (@johnadam2885) on "Russian troops' Kherson withdrawal: A loss for Moscow or a Russian strategy? • FRANCE 24 English" video.
The Russians keep the west guessing on their strategy. They are masters at that. The west has been announcing the Kherson offensive since July. Russians have had plenty of time to evaluate and prepare. They decided it is better to withdraw from the west bank, and defend from the east bank. It forces the Ukranians to cross the river. That gives opportunities to kill the Bandera army. Defence is cheaper than offence. For Ukraine, it is the last throw of the die. If the casualties are very high, they won't have much manpower left. Then Russia can strike them. In 1812, Russia evacuated from Moscow when Napoleon's Grand Armee attacked . They let Napoleon take it and waited outside Moscow. Then in winter, they came back and struck the French. It is notable the Ukranians are being cautious as they know in pushing forward, they will face heavy casualties, but it is the west that is proclaiming victory.
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You are writing all this without the offensive having started. Zelensky himself is unusually cautious, because he knows there is a high risk the Ukranians will get massacred.
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@krakhedd Zelensky normally shoots off his mouth and says he is going to conquer Crimea. Now he is cautious because he mounted 2 or 3 attacks on Kherson already and Ukraine suffered very heavy casualties. So he knows even heavier casualties and a massacre of Ukarnians is coming his way and this is the last throw of the die. But the Americans are pushing him to go forward. The Russians have evacuated the civilian population who now have Russian nationality and it shows they care for the people. Then when the fight come, the soldiers are unimpeded. There was a problem that militarily it is difficult to defend across the west bank of the Dnieper, especially as there is danger that the Ukranians could break the dam and flood soldiers and trap them. But the east bank can be defended. They can draw the Ukranians into Kherson and kill them. They can also break the dam. And at the same time, the Russians can unleash a missile barrage and finish off Ukraine's power grid. That is the reason Zelensky is not boasting pompously as he normally does. He sounds worried, it sounds like he does not want to attempt going into Kherson city as he feels it will be a trap, but the Americans and west are pushing him like you are, based on emotions. As for one step into Crimea, Putin will use a tactical nuclear bomb on Kiev - that is sure. The west will have a month or so to project Ukraine and then we shall see.
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@Joaquin546 Ukraine has already made 2 or 3 attempts at Kherson and got beaten back with heavy casualties. That is why the Ukranians are cautious, and not boasting as usual, unlike the western media. The US is pushing them to have another go, but the Ukranians know there is high risk being massacred. Russians will be waiting for them.
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@carolekjellander8917 The Nazis had a similar understanding as you of the Red Army. 4 years later the Red Army was in Berlin. Napoleon also thought the same.
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