Comments by "Tom Riley" (@tomriley5790) on "What Will Actually Happen if Russia Invades Ukraine (Royal Marine Reacts)" video.

  1. NATO won't help if Russia actually invades - it would mean war between NATO/Russia - the two largest nuclear arsenals on the planet - that's potentially world ending, it would lead to a new cold war on the border of Ukraine/Russia with NATO/Russian forces staring at each other - which is risky but (hopefully nobody is crazy enough to actually start that one). Sadly I'm not sure the man portable SAMs or antitank weapons will be as effective as they might to be expected - bear in mind that Russia has also adapted since 2014 too - they've been practicing in Donblass and also alot of their equipment and tactics are designed to counter US tactics - so it's likely that they'll use lots of Jamming, interference with comms, Lots of SAM cover to prevent air attacks lots of drones (which may be vulnerable to man portable sams but who knows...) lots of artillery support to destroy anything that could be a threat before occupying it with tanks and infantry - their tactics are mainly to avoid getting into a tank v tank or infantry v infantry fight and operate under a SAM net to prevent air strikes (although they'll likely have air superiority). Personally I think it wont happen - Russia has alot to loose by actually invading and it's already gotten alot of attention to it's "concerns" and Putin has already been made to look stronger and willing to use force against any opposition (remember he was facing opposition that was growing within Russia)... It's unlikely much is being missed - the European Space Agency images all of europe with Synthetic Aperture Radar every few days - tanks and metal things show up very well.... it's alot harder to hide stuff than it used to be. China is not necessarily allied with Russia - more that their interests coincide - it's interesting how few troops are currently on the Russian/Chinese border- fewer than in 1941, the only potential chinese involvment I could see is that it might be a good time to invade Taiwan whilst this is going on in Russia. Apparently a hacker group managed to turn off the Belarussian railways :-)!
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