Comments by "PNH 6000" (@PNH-sf4jz) on "" video.
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People believe that Russia would not attack NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. I think that belief is simply naive.
No !! Unfortunately, I am not joking. Anything but joking.
What difference does it make to Russia whether it is Ukraine or any of the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries? Putin and the Russian political, military and media establishment have clearly stated their intention to re-acquire and re-integrate the former USSR.
We, in the Free World, may reasonably have faith in the purpose, intentions, integrity and capacity of the NATO Defensive alliance to perform the role for which it was initially established on 4 April 1949.
{The North Atlantic Treaty Organization was created in 1949 by the United States, Canada, and several Western European nations to provide collective security against the Soviet Union. NATO was the first peacetime military alliance the United States entered into outside of the Western Hemisphere.}
However, do we really believe that Russia, by delusion, ignorance or sheer brazenness, is really worried or concerned about the NATO Defensive Alliance? Quite apart from the reality, they may even believe their own propaganda, in which case, the answer would very likely be an emphatic, "NO !!!"
No matter what we may believe. I think the Russians, unless completely defeated in Ukraine, including Crimea and the Donbas, are likely to attempt to attack other countries, NATO Defensive Alliance member countries or otherwise.
If Ukraine falls, despite the assistance and support of 60 or more countries, Russia will consider that the present 31 NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will also be as weak in defending other NATO Defensive Alliance countries, particularly the smaller ones. Indeed, I see Ukraine as a test, by Russia, of the resolve of the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries and the rest of the countries of the Free World.
As of 2023, NATO consists of 31 member countries spanning across North America and Europe. These nations have forged a collective commitment to mutual defence and security, fostering cooperation in military, political and strategic realms.
8 Nov 2023
Russia would perform their usual actions, in attacks on other countries, of infiltration by unidentified military troops, as they did in Crimea, followed by regular military units. At present the Russians already illegally occupy Transnistria, between Moldova and Ukraine. We surely cannot believe that Russia will play by the Free World rule book.
Consider the map of Europe.
First Moldova {not yet a NATO Defensive Alliance member}, then Romania and Bulgaria {both NATO Defensive Alliance members.} and control of both would enlarge and enhance Russia's control of the Black Sea.
Part of the reason that Ukraine is important to Russia is that it provides relatively easy access for military formations from the West to reach Russia. And, therefore, for Russia to use as that "buffer zone" of which the Russians regularly speak, within which they can fight off any "invading" troops from the West, offensive or defensive.
South of that access route between Poland in the West and Russia to the East of Ukraine, the Russians are protected by mountains that would make it especially difficult for any defending Western troops to reach Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria, in a timely fashion with sufficient troops, hardware and munitions.
The Tatra Mountains (pronouncedⓘ), Tatras, or Tatra, are a series of mountains within the Western Carpathians that form a natural border between Slovakia and Poland. They are the highest mountains in the Carpathians. The Tatras are distinct from the Low Tatras (Slovak: Nízke Tatry), a separate Slovak mountain range further south.
In the northern Balkans are the Carpathian mountains, which reach quite great heights in Transylvania, the western part of Romania. There are many other smaller ranges of mountains and hills as well.
Then, on the Black Sea, with Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria, in the West, and Georgia, in the East, controlled by Russia, Russia will have control of the Black Sea, except for the Northern coastline of Turkey.
How much pressure would Russia put on Turkey and which direction do you think Turkey may turn with regard to access to the Bosphorus Strait, if Russia controls the Azov Sea and the rest of the Black Sea?
Then, with a compliant Ukraine and Belarus, the next target would be the Suwalki Gap, between Belarus and Kaliningrad. The objective would be to physically connect Russia with Kaliningrad via the Suwalki Gap. There is just 65 km {or 40 miles} across the gap between Kaliningrad and Belarus.
Until the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, Poland's only eastern and northern neighbour was the USSR, thus, as in the interwar period, the region mattered little in military terms.
This changed after 1991, when Kaliningrad Oblast became a semi-exclave of Russia, sandwiched between Poland and Lithuania, both of which are neighbours with Belarus, but neither Poland nor Lithuania has a direct border with the "mainland" part of Russia
{until Russia establishes control of both Belarus and Ukraine}.
The immediate neighbours of the Kaliningrad Oblast, Poland and Lithuania, both entered the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Defensive Alliance, but at the same time, only 65 km (40 mi) of Polish territory separates two areas of the rival {to NATO} Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) and the Union State of Belarus and Russia. We may also recall that Belarus, Kazakhstan and Ukraine were signatories, with the "protectors", Russia, the UK and the US, to the Budapest Memorandum of 1994.
{ The Union State, or Union State of Russia and Belarus, is a supranational union consisting of Belarus and Russia, with the stated aim of deepening the relationship between the two states through integration in economic and defence policy.}
The former Estonian President, Toomas Hendrik Ilves, claims to have come up with the name "Suwałki Gap" before his meeting with Ursula von der Leyen, then serving as the defence minister of Germany, in April 2015, to highlight the vulnerability of the area for the Baltic states.
The next steps would be North to take Lithuania, Latvia and then Estonia. This would give the Russians significant influence in the Baltic Sea again.
It would be interesting to know what is stored in the massive concrete bunkers, built by the Nazis in WW2, in what is now Kaliningrad. It is also generally understood that the Russians have some type of nuclear weapons housed at Kaliningrad.
Unfortunately, No, I am not joking.
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