Comments by "PNH 6000" (@PNH-sf4jz) on "Ukraine Military Aid "Dead on Arrival" According to Speaker Johnson" video.

  1. Russia is highly unlikely to display maps of its future plans to invade any country in advance. With regard to Russia's invasion and WAR waged against Ukraine, Russia even stated, right up to the day, that there was no reason to invade Ukraine and that Russia would not do so. Yet that is exactly what they did. The countries to the East of Russia are not the only ones at imminent risk, but also the Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, as well as Poland, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. Given the current political situation in those countries, Hungary and Slovakia could possibly capitulate following an attack by the Russians on Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria. It is not a matter of what Russia is ABLE to do. It is really a question as to whether Russia, delusionally {in the strict sense of the word, to my way of thinking}, or in spite of Russia's apparent ignorance of their real and inadequate military capacity against that of the NATO Defensive Alliance and other supporting countries {about 30 at present}, believe that they can achieve their stated goals and objectives of re-instituting the former USSR, by that, or any other name. And we know that the intended "revanchism" has been stated by Putin and others, directly and implicitly. To accomplish that goal, Russia would have to attack other NATO Defensive Alliance member countries. First, Moldova, {not an Alliance member country}, then connecting with Transnistria (1), on the long {aprox 200 km} North-Eastern border between Ukraine and Moldova, where ~500 {OGRF} Russian military personnel (2) are said to be stationed. Then Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO Alliance member countries, but difficult to support from the West because of the Carpathian Mountains and, if they chose to support Russia, Hungary and Slovakia to the North-West. {"Russia deploys large landing ship to occupied Sevastopol, Atesh resistance movement reports The New Voice of Ukraine Wed, January 24, 2024"} This portion of the {possible} Russian plan would have to be completed by surprise and with guile, subterfuge and speed, which we know to be trade-marks of the Russian style. At this stage, with the Eastern portions of Ukraine illegally occupied and controlled by the Russians, Georgia effectively hobbled, Moldova, Romania and Bulgaria secured, the only other country with a Black Sea coastline is Turkey. The question would then arise as to how much pressure Russia would have to impose to make Turkey compliant to Russia's wishes and intentions. At which time, the Azov and Black Seas become, effectively, a Russian Azov/Black Sea lake. Having accomplished control of the Black Sea, Russia will have effectively covered the Southern flank of any possible attack against them as they proceed East via the Suwalki Gap, through Belarus. Though, by this time, the NATO Defensive Alliance member countries will have been fully mobilised as a result of attacks on Romania and Bulgaria, under NATO article 5. Troops from NATO member countries would then be free to cross Polish and Ukrainian borders {with the permission and approval of each country} against the Russians. No wonder Poland has strengthened their Northern and Eastern borders. The Suwalki Gap traverses the Polish border, which is also adjacent to the Lithuanian border. {Article 5. The key section of the {NATO Defensive Alliance} treaty is Article 5. Its commitment clause defines the "casus foederis". It commits each member state to consider an armed attack against one member state, in the areas defined by Article 6, to be an armed attack against them all.} Next would likely be an assault on the 100 km {~60 mile} Suwalki Gap, between Belarus and Kaliningrad. The Russians have conventional and, it is generally believed, nuclear weapons in the Kaliningrad exclave. Russia is also understood to have moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. With the Suwalki Gap secured, Russia will have successfully divided the Southern European countries from the Northern Baltic and Scandinavian countries, and have carved a direct route from Russia to the Baltic Sea. Then the very small countries of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. In Russia's attempts to accomplish these goals and objectives, and irrespective of their success or failure, Russia can be the cause of hundreds of thousands {possibly millions} of deaths of civilians and military personnel and massive levels of destruction. All of which we have seen as a result of the military actions of Russia in Ukraine, Chechnya, Georgia, Syria and other countries. However, these outcomes could be on a very much larger scale, without any compunction or moral scruple of any sort on Russia's part. Russia's claim is, "The only rule of WAR is the outcome", which is a direct counter to, and repudiation of all the international agreements to which Russia is signatory. The issue is not whether Russia can subjugate, subordinate and dominate other countries, but instead, the death and destruction that Russia will cause in attempting to achieve those goals and objectives. And all that death and destruction in Ukraine is intended to intimidate, not only Ukrainians, but also the populations in Western Europe, presumably, in an effort to "encourage" or "persuade" Europeans to sacrifice Ukraine {and possibly other countries} to save themselves from a similar fate. However, such a sacrifice will not save Western Europeans, but rather, will just postpone the inevitable future attacks by Russia. We have also seen that Russia seems oblivious to the difference between the combined resources of the NATO Defensive Alliance and the 30 additional countries assisting and supporting Ukraine, with respect to Russia's own resources as well as any other resources available to Russia from Iran, North Korea, possibly China and any others. ================================== If you are not already familiar with the videos on Julia Davis' "Russian Media Monitor" YouTube website, of which the video clip of the Russian media entity, Mardan, in this video is one example. I recommend web-searching and viewing them. They are extracts from material presented to the Russian population through Russian TV broadcasts, with very clear English language subtitles. Some of the material could variously be described as horrifying, unbelievable, comical in its absurdity, confronting and numerous other descriptive words. Please do check them out. Another website, that may be of interest, consists of interviews with 'ordinary' Russians in the street about their views on a wide range of topics. Those videos can be seen on Daniil Orain's YouTube website, "1420". With Best Wishes, PNH References from Wikipedia: 1) "Lying between the Republic of Moldova and Ukraine, Transnistria is 200 kilometres in length, and in some places only two kilometres wide. This strip of land is officially called the Pridnestrovian Moldavian Republic (PMR), and has a population of around 500,000." 2) "The Operational Group of Russian Forces {OGRF} in Transnistria is a sizable overseas military task force of the Russian Armed Forces." "The OGRF ostensibly remains in Transnistria to guard the ammunition depot at Cobasna. It also provides additional support to the Armed Forces of Transnistria. Today, around 350–400 troops with the operational force report directly to the JCC and can be assigned to it at any given time." 3) The JCC. "Following the Transnistria War, the Joint Control Commission {JCC} was established on the initiative of Moldovan and Russian presidents Mircea Snegur and Boris Yeltsin by the signing of a cease-fire agreement on July 21, 1992. It consists of soldiers and officers from Moldovan, Transnistian and Russian military."
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