Comments by "Cross Link" (@crosslink1493) on "Zeihan on Geopolitics" channel.

  1. One thing you forgot about the "squishy soft" Canadian permafrost in the summer months - the mosquitos. Lots and lot of mosquitos. And they are BIGLY!
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  2. Peter coming from Monarch Beach in the south end of Laguna Beach, California. Reality is the people living in the multi-million-dollar homes up on those cliffs overlooking the Pacific Ocean are not the least bit worried about a recession.
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  3. This all started with that Chinese ship about a year ago, where the captain denied doing it, then bragged about it after positively linked to it, so I wonder if it will include any Chinese-flagged boats regardless of their cargo (oil or other). That reminded me of the final scene in Monty Python's 'Holy Grail" movie with the French soldier in the tower shouting insults at the King and his band of men.
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  4. I'd go one step further, South Africa is a country on the verge of collapse, a good metaphor for where BRICS seems to be heading. As Peter and someone else mentioned, India is there just to keep China from totally dominating the organization and the 'Global South.' They are doing pretty well by staying non-aligned and (right now) better off doing their own deals, as they did with Saudi Arabia (or was it the UAE?) and Russia for oil.
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  5. 6:15 The term 'Smart light bulb'; some things just don't need a semiconductor inside them. Peter, if you read these, have you heard anything about financial problems at Huawei? They've been doing a lot of bond sales this year with some odd yields, and the bonds are unsecured. Rumor is they're having big financial problems and the bonds are something of a 'cover' for the CCP to use instead of just doing the normal looting of banks and accounts of the few profitable industries in China to keep them afloat.
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  6. You can find gasoline for $4/gallon pretty easily here in California. Those $7+ prices you see on the sensationalized television news are a few stations in downtown areas of California's big cities that have expensive rent and other high costs to do business.
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  7. Along with investing stupidly, those low, low interest rates encouraged people to spend stupidly, too. Flipping cars every 3-5 years is my pet peeve about overspenders.
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  8. I liked that opening part where you describe the different tribal/ethnic/religious divisions around the country and the way that's set up the government's form of democracy based on those differences. If you've ever taken a dive into the evolution of the USA's constitution in the 1780s it's somewhat similar, just trade Nigeria's ethnic areas for the 13 states, and each area/state looking out for its own interests. I sure hope they can get things settled and everyone working together. Same with the rest of Africa in this post-colonial era (Zimbabwe and South Africa come to mind).
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  9. I think you mean nuclear reactors in Iran? Saddam spent money building palaces for himself, not power plants for the country.
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  10. Yep, it been that way for a while. As this video kept going I was wondering if PZ was going to mention California's precarious position. There is crude production in California but its been dropping for the last few decades, and there is a bit of importing from some other minor western USA oil fields, but the volume its no where near what's needed to supply California's thirst for fuel. EDIT: Forgot to mention that west Arizona and southern Nevada (Las Vegas) gets their petroleum products from California. Not sure if the Reno, NV area gets its supply from the San Francisco Bay area. I think Phoenix still gets fuels from Texas, they were looking at a pipeline link to CA a few years back.
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  11. More like "It's worse than I thought, and next we'll see Trump will find a way to make it even worser". And this is only one month into a 4-year presidential term.
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  12. Its not just the oil supply. The problem with invading and taking over a 'basket case' of a country like Venezuela is that you have to manage it, or in this case set up a whole new management structure (government) to prevent it from turning into a lawless patch of land (like Libya and Somalia).
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  13. Yeah, when it comes to this detailed science stuff he's getting out of his specialty of geopolitics between world capitols and leadership. I know some basics on the whole nuclear power issue and science behind it, more than Peter but nowhere near enough to make detailed comments on it.
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  14. A lot of Japanese manufacturers did that back in the late-1970s/early-1980s. Tariffs were one reason, others were the cost of shipping stuff from Japan to the USA was a lot higher than it is today, construction costs were a lot less (considering time to build and materials as labor rates were about the same), and the cost of land, even in Southern California, was considered a dirt-cheap bargain compared to industrial/commercial land in Japan.
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  15. Probably another video, but any opinion on the Chinese upgrade of their 'listening post' in the Cocos Islands (Myanmar territory in the Bay of Bengal). That's supposed to be in the process of an upgrade to a full-fledged Chinese military base in addition to the one in Djibouti, and its not sitting too well with India.
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  16. Not only the natural resources, but the business community. When manufacturing departed in the 1980s-1990s (for a variety of reasons), California banked heavily of the service economy where wages are lower for most people with exceptions for legal, hi-tech, etc. This created the classic rich/poor divide we see today. California also enabled illegal immigration by passing laws that ignored immigration status and outright prohibited engaging with federal officials on enforcement. If it does start collapsing as Peter suggests in this video (to the status of a third-world state?) I will not be surprised. I'll be dead and gone by then, but I hope anyone looking to the future gets out now.
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  17. True that Nixon 'broke the ice' and 'opened the door'. That started negotiations on relations that ran through the Ford administration years, then the deal was finalized during the Carter administration, including the formal ambassadorships and the neutral position of the USA towards Taiwan (rather than outright support).
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  18. I remember the phone with the rotary dial, and it also had the 'dial tone' to let you know the line was 'open' when you put it up to your ear, or the 'beep-beep-beep' when there were no open lines. No dial tones on cell phones these days. I was in college when the Iranian Revolution happened and a lot of the Iranian students would disappear after class, apparently fearful of reprisals when the USA Embassy in Tehran was taken over. Also worked with a lot of Iranian engineers and tech guys/gals in the 1980s, most told me they applied for and got asylum after the Shah fell and the Iran/Iraq war started as they got to the USA via the Shah's connections with the USA and would be drafted (or imprisoned) if they went back. Those were pretty wild times.
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  19. Actually its done overnight in California after the polls close as 8PM. Very close races will be recounted to ensure the results and would take a day (or two). A very, very few very close races might be contested by a candidate and require a recount by hand and take longer, but they are very unusual. The California Secretary of State certifies election results about a month after the election, but that's more of a formality in this day & age.
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  20. I hear you. By the 1960's you didn't need kids to help out around your 'estate', typically a suburban house with a small yard, as you didn't have all that 40+ acres of farmland to maintain. Another factor in the industrialization of a country. I'm a single white male and get blamed for all the world's problems, so just take a number, get in line, and I'll get to your complaint whenever.
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  21. But what does that $57K/year buy you in Greenland? I'll bet the price of a dozen eggs is much, much higher there than in Palm Beach Florida.
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  22. When you say 'upper right quadrant' of a hurricane, do you mean northeast? I'm a boomer who understands compass directions. and 'upper right quadrant' is going to be dependent on the directions you are facing. The "Gen-afters" have no sense of N-S-E-W so they are lost to begin with. And if you're always putting that long hair into a 'man-bun' why not just cut it off into a short hair style.
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  23. I'm wonder why Mr. Zeihan downplays China in these videos about Middle East status. They are involved with the Iranians, but also with the Saudis (and the UAE) as they keep buying a good quantity of crude oil to fuel their thirst for energy. Maybe he should have thrown in a bit on why the Chinese aren't doing more for military port access and their PLA Navy isn't rotating more ships over to the waters in that area (Hormuz, Gulf of Oman, Red Sea, etc).
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  24. Yeah, that really caught my attention, too: "a piece of infrastructure built for another age, like these god-damn stairs!".
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  25.  @RoyalBlue517  One is considered an adversary, the other an friendly. Not really a double standard unless there's a different definition I'm unaware of.
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  26. From what I understand Italy's labor laws are pretty draconian, too. Its not worth it for an employer to expand his/her small business beyond (approximately) 10 employees as all kinds of burdensome employment laws kick in.
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  27. I thought Japan, at least its leadership beginning with P.M. Abe, realized they were in an 'isolated' area (geographically) and needed to be more 'assertive' with its axis neighbors such as Russia, North Korea, and China. Abe tried to push through changes to Japan's Constitutional description of the military (the JDF) from a purely defensive force to allow for more regional operations. I thought some changes got approved by their Parliament (the Diet) and has allowed the JDF to do more cooperative operations with South Korea, the USA, and Philippines (and Taiwan through some backdoor channels!). As for Germany, I don't know how well prepared they (or the rest of Western Europe) is as Russia's sabre rattling gets louder and louder. Contrast that with their neighbor Poland which is becoming more militarized and defiant of any provocations from the East (Russia or its 'cannon-fodder-puppet' Belarus).
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  28.  @shravankumardebbad6620  You're going to have to explain that one.
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  29. I wonder how much elevation loss Peter went through while hiking downhill and recording this video - from an alpine area with early-season snow patches down to a well- forested area has got to be pretty good loss in elevation.
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  30. I thought Israel and Turkey already had solid relations; not sure if 'great' would be proper. PZ doesn't mention it, but I'd bet they're closely coordinating with each other on what their militaries are doing in Syria so as not to mistakenly attack each other's positions. A few common goals for sure, but each has its own reasons for being there, too.
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  31. California's Central Valley farmers are always complaining. Either the government is doing too much and killing them off, or doing too little to help them out and killing them off. Peter forgot the Salinas and Imperial Valley, too. Each is those is year-round productive but has its own set of problems.
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  32. I was a member of the Teamsters and I'd say he was partially correct as the Teamsters top brass will swing to whichever side gives them the best deal while the locals are more looking out for front-line members. Trump is like that, full of more contradictions than a more typical politician, saying he supports the working guy and small business but the actions he's taken throughout the last 50 years are anything but that. Trump is all about Trump, the heck with the Republican party.
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  33. Yeah, interesting. I wonder if a patreon membership includes him giving out winning lottery numbers for the upcoming drawings. That might be worth the cost.
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  34. Similar here, but I was a white collar boomer that did blue collar work earlier on in life while in college working for a neighbor who was and electrical contractor and got my own license. I always kept my "hand in the trade" in my working years and it helped me through some rough economic times. I'm retired now and do small electrical jobs that the full-time contractors won't take (not profitable enough for them and their overhead). Yep, its 'mad money' for part-time work, and I can pick & choose the jobs I want to do.
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  35. But you're going to need someone to maintain/repair all those robots, and who is going to do that blue-collar 'grunt' work?
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  36.  @Eskeeter03  I'd be a cold day in Hades before that happened.
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  37. I noticed that too. The thumbnail on YT had 'BRIC' but he did say 'BRICS' as he started talking in the video (maybe just the plural form, BRIC's?). I guess he doesn't have high hopes for South Africa in the future. 😟
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  38. Finland took one a few weeks ago, Sweden this past week (after PZ made this video). I'm waiting to see what'll happen if they take one with heavy Chinese association (crew, cargo, or ownership). Germany did tow one into port but that was an oil tanker that lost power and not a suspect in cable or pipeline chicanery.
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  39. We in the USA feel your pain. Its crazy that 'Felon 47' is taking the route he is rather than bolster the Canada-USA-Mexico partnership to manufacture goods and provide services in North America for North Americans. Plenty of resources here on the continent that could create a strong, robust economic partnership. He's throwing it all away.
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  40.  @e.d9993  Didn't Hamas come about from the militant wings of the PLO and the Muslim Brotherhood combining forces, who both got kicked out of their respective organizations for being TOO violent against Israel? (and against Egypt in the case of the Muslim Brotherhood). And Hezbollah is a break-away faction due to its Shiite faith (vs Hamas' Sunni faith). I admit I have to tough time keeping track of the dynamics of all the groups in that area of the world!.
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  41. Another dysfunctional aspect of the EU might be its uncoordinated aerospace industry, especially when it comes to military hardware. They do cooperate quite well on Airbus and the ESA, but true military products (tanks, jets fighters, other smaller weapons systems and products) seem to be a source of national pride. As a result its kind of tough to make a cohesive military 'machine' when there's so much differentiation between them. Now add in a few ex-Soviet states with older hardware that needs to be replaced and the squabbling could get fierce.
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  42. I live in heavily Mexican influenced Southern California and I've never heard the acronym AMLO used when he's being referenced, just Obrador or Lopez Obrador. Full name for those interested is Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. From what I know of his presidency in dealing with the cartels he just gave up on trying to root them out as long as they didn't get violent with the general Mexican population. That been a colossal failure, especially in the central-western states and the towns/cities bordering the USA.
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  43. He was mentioning 3X in North America for ISIS/jihadi attacks, not all over the world (although 3X seems low for North America). He did mention its more likely to happen in Europe, Africa, Middle East, South Asia, just due to proximity.
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  44. There have been multiple cables cut in the China/Taiwan area over the last few months.
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  45. Don't feel at-a-loss about the USA, nobody here in the USA knows what Trump's plans are either.
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  46. So if you are a 20-30 year old Finnish male of Russian descent, and you fly into Moscow with a Finnish passport, you'll suddenly be flown to the Russia/Ukranian front line? (or some version of that scenario?)
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  47. I thought Shein was trying to supplant Temu as the major supplier; how low can you go.
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  48.  @pingpongpaddlehead  Yes, nuclear-produced power, but more likely fission reactors. But whether fission of fusion, it still takes 10 years to build one, and that's assuming the additional 5+ years of planning and design go smoothly with minimal stumbling blocks (eco groups and nimbies).
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  49. Got to ask - are you referring to Bush Sr (1989-1983 president) or Bush Jr. (2001-2009 president)? What you wrote above seems mixed up between the two.
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  50. They're too busy out campaigning for the next election cycle, but turn on the CSPAN cameras in a hearing room and they all show up for some 'political theater' airtime that they can use for their re-election campaign.
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  51. I thought Israel and Turkey already had a working relationship in a "behind-the-curtain" kind of way (like the Saudi-Israel relationship he mentions). Isn't Turkey a supplier of Israel's refined petrol products and food already? Turkey is having a monetary crisis and the income from selling products to Israel would be useful to the Erdogan regime, even if there is a little friction in the relationship.
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  52. Hey Peter, I think you ought to put those red-rimmed glasses aside for a while, they make you look like the whack-a-doodle militant loosely carrying the AK-style rifle in the movie "Civil War". RFK Jr. supports a conspiracy theory involving Slinkies? What's that, something involving a deadly physics phenomenon? I gotta look that one up.
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  53. I'd think it would be more the European right-wing pushing the anti-immigration policies. Italy, Poland, some other S.E. Euro countries fed up with the middle east & African migrants, groups in the U.K. Germany and France, and now the Conservatives in the Netherlands. But yeah, an interesting topic as their collective voices are getting louder.
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  54.  @georgedheeraj  Just use a critical eye and filter out the blatantly biased ones that tell you how great Evergrande is doing and how its going to expand into foreign markets, be the 'world's builder of choice', blah, blah, blah.
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  55. I think you missed the point on that segment of this video. Peter's focusing on Australia turning to processing those commodities into a final product (or multiple products), thus producing jobs/income/taxes at home from that business; think processing iron ore or bauxite ore into different grades of steel or aluminum at an Australian steel/aluminum mill, maybe even casting or forming a final metal product, or processing wheat harvested in Aussieland into a cereal grain ready for baking, or even a grain product like wheat germ cereal for a breakfast table. If the economy falters and those raw products were not desired any more, then Aussieland gets shut down. If they had steel mills/bauxite mills then those mills could shift to producing a new, more desirable grade of steel/aluminum that the world wanted.
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  56. You didn't read about the timeline when the legislation was passed? Deadline for a Chinese divestiture is next month (January 2025). You paid so much attention to the cloudy sky you didn't notice the rising water around your feet.
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  57. If you take out cross-border gang members, its pretty much been verified through years of data gathering that immigrants into the USA, whether legal or illegal, do commit less crime than locals. I can't vouch for other countries (such as any in Europe), but its the data published here in the USA. There are a few variations in the USA, like illegal-immigrant-friendly California won't allow the local police to turn over illegal immigrants they pick up for minor civil or criminal infractions to the Federal immigration officials for deportation processing.
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  58. Good way to put it. I see it as the lesser of two unknowns. Trump has some history from his first term, then his exposure through his legal problems for the last four years, while Harris is an unknown as to where she will go with policies such as foreign relations, the economy (a thankless task, something like Sisyphus trying to push that rock uphill), and others. I look at it as choosing Harris as a placeholder for the next 4 years and re-evaluate in 2028; hopefully she can keep the ship together of moving forward, even if having to 'tack' into a few headwinds along the way.
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  59. Peter getting in some hiking and video-ing before the storm hits Colorado. At least in Colorado you can expect to come out the other side relatively unscathed, while in Russia that 'storm' of drones is going to leave some lingering damage. "All hands on deck, comrades! We need to repair this refinery" "Sir, that's not possible as all the 'hands' were sent to the Ukrainian front line."
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  60. Kind of embedded in their psyche and/or culture through Russian history and education to do it this way. Their leadership hasn't stopped to consider the modern world has changed and communications, diplomatic relationships make resolving differences easier. Ego and narcisstic behavior "trumps" all that (pun intended).
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  61. But fortunately in the West we don't have 'tiered cities', so if you can't find employment in your current city or you feel housing costs are too high, you can move to another city with lower-cost housing and/or more employment opportunities without government restrictions. And as for the USA specifically, its not that hard to switch job fields (relative to China) so with a little bit of 'due diligence' and 'skills transfer' a person can find new employment. Free market economics, not centrally-planned like in China.
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  62. Speaking of waste fuel, we have a closed nuclear facility in Southern California at San Onofre along the north San Diego County coastline. It still has nuclear waste stored at the site as attempts to ship it out by rail have failed. If it goes by rail it'll travel through some densely populated suburban areas. Shipment by sea is considered impractical due to coastal access issues and since its final destination would be Yucca Mountain in Nevada. So there it all sits, entombed in concrete 'caskets' just south of the City of San Clemente and some great surfing beaches, at the north edge of Camp Pendelton (Marine base), and right beside the busy Interstate 5 freeway.
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  63. A little correction about the late-1980s/early 1990s for the 'boomers'. That was when the Soviet Union was collapsing over a few years and the USA's military manufacturing complex collapsed along with it, followed by consolidation in the industry and closing of military bases around the country. Lot of folks in my region were effected (the 'regional effect' PZ mentions near the end), and housing prices/interest rates took a dive back then. Housing got cheap as unemployed folks tried to sell their homes but a good chunk of potential buyers were unemployed, too. I do wish I would have had a spare $100,000 to pick up a few properties back them. ☹
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  64. Look at it visually on a map, its a delta of the Ganges so you can reliably expect it to flood every year. And then look at the population compared to its landmass (when its not flooding); how the heck do all those people fit in during the dry season, much less the flood season?
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  65. Speaking of collapsing in on itself . . . I was wondering if the rise is 'excess service fees' among travel related service providers might disappear. Its annoying as heck to see these types of fees everywhere and for everything you thought would be included in the original price, and you have to argue with staff to try to get a few of them eliminated. Its most definitely made me adjust my travel options and the frequency that I go places. Maybe its a great way to increase profit per customer for the companies charging them, but if customers are like me they either resist them or just don't patronize certain service providers anymore. I did a ton of travel in the late-1980s through mid 2000s, have no desire to go overseas anymore (and its gotten quite expensive, too!). There's plenty in the USA within an 8-hour day-long drive of my home to interest me, and a day (or two) camping between hotel stays helps keep the costs down.
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  66. Was this the instant variety, somewhat of a hypersonic travel through your system? 😳
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  67.  @tsubadaikhan6332  There used to be a thriving Avocado industry in the USA but imports from Mexico after the NAFTA treaty killed off a lot of it, and causing avocado prices at the stores to drop significantly. We still have groves in Southern California (probably other warm environments, too), but most of what's left are specialty types of the fruit.
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  68. I thought uranium deposits were fairly widespread (but not overly abundant), but the real problem is finding deposits rich enough in the isotope U-235, since U-235 is only a fraction-of-a-percent of concentration in the best of the mined ores. The USA also had deposits, mostly on native American reservations in the southwest, but environmental and the native Americans themselves keep it off limits.
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  69. I immediately thought 'Bladerunner' and the android 'Replicants'. Or should it be called 'Bladerudder?'
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  70. We've got them in Southern California, too. Southwest Riverside County and northern San Diego County. Unless the developers have paved them over and put up another parking lot.
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  71. Bigger problem is someone is going to have to do the math to figure out the ne arrangement of stars on the flag. This is the USA, our educational system assures we don't have young folks that can 'math' very well to do that complex calculation stuff.
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  72. I thought the biggest amount of capital investing in USA land was from the U.K. (Canada & Japan were #2 & #3). I guess with the conditions in in the U.K. these days maybe some folks have repatriated their ₤ Sterling home to the U.K. to fund their lifestyles.
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  73.  @darthkek1953  I've learned it was multiple mad emperors/warlords fighting each other for turf, resources, dominance, and more taxes/tithes. That's why it never survived against invaders like the Mongols, and later the Japanese and Europeans.
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  74. From a global perspective, yes. From a local (Middle East) perspective, No. Still a player in rabble-rousing in their own neighborhood. They can still be a nuisance in the area, I'd expect their proxies Hamas and Hezbollah to reform (not sure what will happen with a new Syria), I'll bet they develop some simple capabilities like advanced drones (air and sea), and that ongoing question of how close are they to getting nukes is always looming.
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  75. "B" level movies. They cost a whole lot less than the big-budget "A" level movies but have the potential to rake in huge profits even if they have only mediocre box office success and some good reception in the streaming/DVD marketing space. I worked with a gal who worked for one of those 'studios' (they only had an office, no actual filming studio) doing both screenwriting and marketing (typical dual-roles in those small studios). She mentioned they were always busy, and most of what they produced made a profit due to the low costs involved at that level. It can only get more profitable with AI and CGI.
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  76. And don't forget Vietnam's strategic position on the South China Sea. They're on one side of the trade routes through the area, the Philippines on the other. It makes China have to think twice when they try to exert control of the area's sea lanes, and how many extra resources they need to do it. I don't live that far from the 'Little Saigon' area in Southern California. Its a bustling Vietnamese enclave (somewhat ethnically insulated) that developed from a run-down industrial/commercial area by Vietnamese immigrants. The South Vietnamese ideal still remains strong in the area, especially among the older folks, and any sign of support for the Hanoi government is quickly met with public protests.
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  77. You might add 'drones' to this discussion. They are quite useful, but they'll never completely replace aircraft. They have proven very useful for surveillance and small weapons deployment (taking out terrorists and tanks in the Middle East and Ukraine/Russia war) to simple surveillance of enemy lines and enemy territory in hostile regions.
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  78. I wonder why Peter didn't include India in this analysis. They are not a naval superpower yet, but they can be a regional power in the Indian Ocean and project into neighboring Middle East areas (I'll leave S.E. Asia and East Asia out for now). Combine them with the Japanese and assistance from a few other countries in the region, and they'd be a pretty potent combination if China expands its 'bullying' diplomacy tactics into the region (and we all know how well India and China get along!). And India does have an interest in making sure the oil flows freely from the Middle East to Southern Asia. Just a few thoughts beyond the tight regional boundries Peter sticks to in the video.
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  79. Reminds me of the movie "Three Kings" and the gold stash they were trying to smuggle out of Iraq. Great movie.
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  80.  @personzorz  How is that happening? What I've seen/experienced over the last decades was not imperialism by the USA, but negotiations with another countries to station troops on bases in those countries without taking over foreign government operations. Outright expansionist imperialism is what Russia is doing with Ukraine (and possibly the Baltic countries) or China is trying to do with Taiwan or islands occupied by Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, or others in East Asia.
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  81. Another limitation on Argentina is its geographic location at the southern end of South America which makes logistics a concern. Shipping anything either to/from there is quite a distance. Unless you can do it in volume at a steady rate (like is done with Chinese goods going out to the world) its somewhat costly. They do produce a lot of foodstuffs for export, it remains to be seen whether they can extend that to other commodities.
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  82.  @chillxxx241  Yes, but I was thinking of moving commodities and product to other markets to diversify their customer base - Europe, North America, Asia, Africa. They already ship a lot of grain to China, but can they ship more to other countries; remember at the start of the Ukraine/Russia war a lot of grain from that area stopped flowing and Argentina would have been a great back-up source for Southern Asia/East Africa (where a lot of Ukrainian/Russian grain normally went). Same with other goods if Argentina (hopefully) gets out of its economic mess.
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  83. Wasn't there a Bond movie with something like that at the start, stealing a fighter carrying a tactical nuke at a remote 'arms bazaar' for wealthy bad guys? I think Pierce Brosnan was playing Bond at that time. Not one of the better Bond movies, but pretty watchable movie IIRC.
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  84. Yeah, I'll second svenhoek's post in saying its ALL social media that's causing a lot of anxiety in societies around the world, not just South Korea. Hopefully it all ends up well for you and the rest of the country, the best is that the country's constitution works and South Korea carries on as a democracy regardless of this situation with Mr. Yoon.
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  85. Short man's complex? Love the pictures and video last week of him and Kim walking together in North Korea. They must be the two shortest world leaders (world autocrats?) these days.
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  86. The payments in relation to committing fraud is what make them rise from misdemeanors to felonies, and the statute of limitations for that is 10 years (2025). The judge's jury instructions were based on incorrect and unpermitted statements (per NY state court procedure) the defense gave during closing arguments, not a bias of the judge. The 34 charges were for every payment made (there's significant time between each one), the 'paper' was the proof of them being made and Stormy cashing the checks for those amounts.
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  87. Probably not on topic, but I had a few co-workers back in the 1990s who despised being called 'Iranian', they considered themselves 'Persian' first and foremost. And they were not fans of the Islamic regime at all. Both grew up there, got sent here for college educations, then managed to get 'green cards' and stay here. Both were very sharp engineers. Iran's loss, the USA's gain.
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  88. Didn't he have a side gig for the 'History Channel' before that turned itself into the 'Conspiracy Channel'. The corporate bosses started sending him to places like Japan to report on superpower samurai, dragons, and Godzilla sighting, he ended up in New Zealand and goes back once a year to report on the seasonal emergence of Hobbits, unicorns, fairies, Mileis and Trumps. His new side gig is geopolitical analysis from Colorado.
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  89. That brings to mind writer Mark Twain's quote about water: "In California whiskey is for drinking and water is for fighting over". Maybe Egypt and Ethiopia are headed in the same direction.
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  90.  @thehunzz  With the comedic spin Peter puts on it I was thinking "Tropic Thunder".
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  91. My bet is on Senor Salsa. He'd now like to be called "Don" Salsa.
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  92. Another reason not to put too much faith in polls until September is the 'bounce' candidates/parties get from the coverage of their conventions. They're scripted 'feel-good' presentations that help the parties gain a few percentage points in the short run, but that number will settle back down in 1-2 weeks. I notice before these Zeihan videos that I get a lot of political fundraising ads; they used to be Biden/Dem ads, now they are Trump/Repub ads. The weird YT algorithms at work.
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  93. Peter might be wrong on the polling at the state level. I'm in California. We have oodles of pollsters due to all the statewide ballot propositions that we vote on, and its worse in the presidential cycle. No party affiliation needed to get on a pollster's list. Ballot propositions are literally a business in itself here in California.
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  94. As others mention, how much are you paying? I've got a nephew who was into metalworking and machining, ability to program machine tools to cut almost anything as efficiently as possible, but he couldn't make enough to survive. He took a one-year program in HVAC and two years out of that makes more than he could in machining/metalworking (his current employer loves his ability to work with sheet metal in fabricating custom ductwork). If your wages are competing with machine shops in the midwest/south/southeast then you're not relevant to California's economy.
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  95. Its an industrialized nation, but not a lot of younger folks and not a lot of resources. Still its a good member to have on your team regardless of what the Chinabots say about it.
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  96.  @easonhuang7117  Japan's t-bills are at positive yields, not much of a discount on yields needed to move them either, so not sure where you are getting your info. Japan's financial system is an open, transparent system, far better security on bonds than anything coming out of a Chinese corporation or China's government bonds.
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  97.  @RainedOnParade  It must be, because if you've been superficially keeping up with Trump's NY fraud trial he sure doesn't seem to have a grasp of economics.
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  98. Nice run-through (walk-through?) of the situation in Gaza/Israel. Interesting at the very end you stop in front of a cactus - never knew there were cacti in Italy.
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  99.  @theforsakeen177  I thought the whole area was kind of "meh" for the Ottomans. just a 'pass through' area on their way to other places of more significance. They came by and checked in on the place once in a while, see if anyone had stumbled across any valuable resources to be plundered, but other than that they left the residents alone to do their own thing(s).
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  100. Falling on to thick ice is just as bad as falling onto a thick concrete slab, no matter what the height of the window.
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  101. Each side is going to publish a number that's to their advantage. Then Peter comes out with another different number. Split the difference between all of these and you're closer to the reality of the situation than any of the players in this game are telling you.
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  102. On a similar note, in the late-1970s-early-1980s the Chinese came over to Fontana in Southern California (about 50 miles east of downtown Los Angeles), mapped out and dismantled the old and abandoned Kaiser Steel Plant, moved it over to China, and rebuilt it brick-by-brick.
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  103. He's got a Wikipedia page with that on it.
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  104. From what I know about the reality of Russia and Putin, I'd say the real 'red lines' are a whole lot closer to Moscow and St. Petersburg. Everything beyond those two areas are sacrificial.
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  105. Using a simple kitchen cabinet manufacturing analogy: Intel designed them, TSMC manufactured them, and ASML built the woodworking equipment TSMC used to manufacture them.
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  106. Yeah, I don't think Peter actually gets out into the manufacturing world very much. Retired now, but in my former working life I saw USA manufacturing switch from a little bit of everything to high-value added production. Those simple, lower-value products either went as fully-automated as possible or went overseas to lower-cost countries like China and areas like S.E. Asia.
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  107. Southeast USA might have already been done. Lots of aerospace moved there starting in the early 1990s. I know the huge aerospace mftg industry in Southern California and the San Franciso Bay area packed up and went there at that time. Then the auto manufacturers moved assembly operations there - foreigners to escape import duties, domestics for non-union workforce. Some auto plants have already moved on and gone to Mexico. Mexico still makes a lot of parts for stuff but I'm not sure how much they actually assemble into finished product besides a lot of automobiles. My brother works for a medical device manufacturer and they make parts and a few sub-assemblies in Mexico, but final assembly, testing, and certification is done here in the USA.
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  108. One of the problems was German car companies got rid of the older engineers 'en-masse' back in the 1990s who could design both durability and servicability into a car. The new crop of engineers couldn't do that. They had plenty of design issues back in the late 1970's when they introduced water-cooled cars, too.
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  109. I thought there already was oodles of manufacturing going on to the west/northwest of Mexico City; maybe its underutilized? Not too sure myself about the rail systems in Mexico such as what come up to the USA/Mexico border, and how stuff gets across that (offloaded to trucks or onto USA-based rail carriers, which would be massively inefficient IMO). Anyway, Mexico City and the surrounding areas are a great place to visit, been there a few times over the years, especially like the areas eastward to Puebla and Veracruz.
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  110. Yeah, he made it simplistic, but its a good explanation as to why the USA dollar is still the stalwart of international finance and why Brexit or the Yuan are both non-starters. The Euro was a big competitor when it got started but as he mentioned the E.U. has some policy issues that have rendered it kind of internationally impotent (but still solid) compared to the USA Dollar.
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  111. I've been down there a few times, nice country, beautiful scenery, egotistical culture (best way I can describe it). I don't know how Milei is going to get a lot done since he's not connected to the (overall) Argentine 'political machine', but I was wondering if he, as president, has the power to simply stop the printing of pesos? By that I mean just print enough to replace what's in circulation, but stop the printing of excess cash that is one of their big problems. Also wondering if he has the power to limit issuance of Argentine sovereign bonds and acceptance of international financial instruments (like IMF funds and similar) to limit available funds the government can spend. And they need to develop a budget/multi-year budget and stick to it.
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  112. Interesting that the Iranians don't use GPS on their aircraft, but reports I've seen say the wreckage was located by tracking an intermittent cell phone signal (someone survived the incident?).
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  113. Great analysis, but just curious if you have any ideas on how this compares to Japan's situation in the 1970s - 1980s period when they were the hi-tech manufacturing hub of the world, then it slowly faded as the population stopped having kids due to increasing cost of everything. Also Japan's (and China's) resistance to immigration which would bring in younger working-age people.
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  114. I like Peter's analysis of this from the past presidents standpoint. When I look at all these 2024 presidential candidates without regard to party affiliation I don't really see much there when it comes to dealing with today's international issues. I don't really care if Biden's drooling on himself and fumbles for a correct phrase (he's done that for decades), but as long as he's mentally competent and has that decades-long background of international experience to draw on (including military needs) he's the best of the bunch by a wide margin. Now if he can just find a way to get rid of Kamala and get someone who sems to have more competence and involvement in international affairs on the ticket.
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  115. Isn't Volvo owned by the Chinese, and the cars are now all electric models? I think I'd trust an old rebuilt Saab before one of those new Chinese-influenced cars.
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  116. I'm wondering about the manufacturing/re-industrialization Peter always talks about, the 're-shoring' phenomenon. After 45 years in the workforce all I saw was de-industrialization around the USA and nothing being built to replace it. I'd sure like to know where all these new industrial/manufacturing jobs are being created these days, what they are producing that keeps them in the USA, and how are they going to be cost-competitive with foreign offshore manufacturing. Anybody reading this in the USA have a facility or industrial park in your area producing some kind of 'consumer-level' widgets?
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  117. Unless you've worked in the USA election system (I'm in California) and seen how tough it would be to forge a mail-in ballot. QR code and serial number on each ballot is unique, and the envelope it gets mailed in is unique and has to be signed by the voter under penalty of perjury. And all those codes are machine-red and matched before the votes on them are counted - any duplicates will have all copies rejected. If you fill it out wrong you have to either go to the County voting office to get a new one issued to you after surrendering the old one (and its envelope), or you can take it to a polling place on election day and exchange it for a new one. Its not 100% impossible to forge a mail-in ballot, but its very, very difficult.
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  118. Ponytails are OK, man-buns (like PZ's) are silly. Either grow it out or cut it short.
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  119.  @skeletonkeysproductionskp  Israel is a small country (population of 10 million) with few natural resources, although they do have highly skilled and highly educated population. The whole Gaza/Hamas & Lebanon/Hezbollah situation isn't helping their international standing right now but may work to their advantage in the future.
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  120. Interesting as I never hear much about Romania, at least since Ceausescu was overthrown in 1990(?). Worked with a gal who had escaped from there with her family and it was the happiest day of her life when that happened; the stories she told of her experiences were horrific. Maybe you can fill us in on the rest of the smallish countries in that region like Bulgaria, Moldova, etc. Last time I heard about Bulgaria was their soccer team in the World Cup semis in 1994 in Los Angeles at the Rose Bowl.
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  121. At the very top they are focused on one thing at a time (maybe two if both pots are near boiling over, like Ukraine and Gaza right now), but you can bet there are a lot of underlings in the WH admin and the various Departments that are focused on the others around the world (China/Taiwan, China's economy, Iran/Saudi Arabia, India/China/indo-pacific, Venezuela, etc) and ready to come forward with details on each on a moments notice. .
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  122. I can't tell if this might be the beginning of a validation of the BRICS group's plan to separate from the USA dollar as the intermediary in international exchange, or if it validates that BRICS is pretty much a joke. My money (in USA dollars and British pounds) is on the latter of those two outcomes occurring.
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  123.  @Abduladilosman  True, I was surprised he didn't mention Sudan as they have more to lose that Egypt. Anyone in Sudan living along the Blue Nile who depends on its waters is going to be nervous and have problems if the rains don't come each season.
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  124. I thought the Taliban were not a homogeneous group, different factions exist (call them 'warlords' if you like). Its possible the one that Mr. Zeihan speaks of is not affiliated with those in Afghanistan; maybe they have connections, but they are separate entities with their own 'turf.'
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  125. In contrast, Trump's cabinet choices could be looked at as a Tesla commercial. 😉😉
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  126. I like the artistic scroll work on the support structures of that bridge - Maori influenced? "Accurate exit polling" when most of the country voted by mail or during an extended 'in-person' voting period? (3 weeks here in California). Combine that with cell phones and call monitoring and its hard to believe any pollster could get an accurate sample of the voting population.
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  127. Finland, Sweden or maybe Denmark would be a better guess than Estonia. Finland right along the strait from St' Petersburg out to the Baltic, then Sweden and Denmark (primarily Denmark) control the archipelago area leading out to the North Sea. I'm surprised they didn't fully seize the Chinese freighter two weeks ago.
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  128.  @ivancho5854  That's what we in the USA will be doing (in part) when voting on November 5th 2024.
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  129. There's an ocean on the left and an ocean on the right. Even though its a highly connected world these days those oceans are still good insulators from takeovers by overseas entities. Now if Trump would just quit pissing off the two big neighbors (Canada and Mexico) all three of us would be sitting in one of the best geopolitical locations on the planet.
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  130. I thought the Saudi/Kuwaitti stuff was light sweet crude. California's refineries are set up for that, but they have a few refineries that do the sour stuff pumped out of the local wells, most of what they make is asphalts, roofing tar, 'Henry's' type sealers, etc. 'De-souring' by removing the sulfur compounds to make fuels is tough in CA due to enviro regs.
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  131. They've got plenty of bodies to make stuff, its just no warm bodies out there in the market consuming the stuff.
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  132. Love that remark about Ireland, so true. I've got relatives over there who complain about it. A Russian warship could dock in a western Irish port, the sailors could walk ashore for a meal and a few beers, then depart just as calmly, and the bureaucrats in Dublin would be none-the-wiser.
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  133. But hasn't the mosquito population in summer increased, and for longer periods of time? They're not as big as Alaska's mosquitos (aka the 'Alaskan state bird'), but I'll bet they are just as ravenous for a blood meal.
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  134. At 0:40 into this video I hear a rumbling in the video and immediately think "uh oh, that's Peter standing on the active and rumbling Mauna Loa, this might be his last video." Then you realize its the microphone being affected by the ever-present breezes you get at altitude when there's not much else around you.
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  135. At 2:45; Finland is not included as a Russian take-over target? I think the NATO countries are going to want to have that conference call as a 'video conference' so Putin can see all of them giving him the middle finger at the same time.
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  136. Two well qualified ones I can think of without looking up the resumes of all Biden's picks: Blinken was an undersecretary of state in the Obama administration and had years of experience in the State Department before that, Austin was in the Army for 40 years, retired as a general, and lead Central Command. Yellen has the qualifications, whether someone thinks she's done a good/bad job would be personal opinion (I'd say nothing spectacular from her tenure). Buttigieg was an unknown but seems to have quickly picked up the skills and done a good job as Transportation Secretary; maybe being a mayor and having to deal with public works projects at that level is actually good experience? The rest I can't recall their backgrounds.
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  137. Give us the truth, give us examples showing PZ is telling viewers outright lies.
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  138. I'll second this. Longer would be nice, plenty going on in the world out there. I'm more interested in the Chinese sphere and how their situations (plural) are affecting the decision making: economic situation, South China Sea, Belt-and-Road, saber-rattling on Taiwan. Peter touched on it by mentioning Xi's (lack of) communications.
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  139.  @kwhp1507  Some hi-tech stuff is moving to the southwest (Intel, TSMC and the like). I know there's been a lot of big buildings going up near Phoenix AZ but I thought that was mostly warehousing - its supposed to be the new distribution hub for the SW since the inland Empire region of So California (Riverside/San Bernardino) is pretty much built out so its easier to simply keep driving stuff that came in at the Los Angeles/Long Beach port complex along I-10 for 5 more hours to Phoenix from where its broken down and shipped to its final destination.
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  140. Irrelevant use of data, typical of Chinese propagandists. The number of births compared to number of marriages is useless, as people can get married once and have multiple children. There are out-of-marriage births, but no where near as high as you claim. The infant mortality rate is probably accurate for the USA, but I'll say China doesn't track infant deaths from the poorer, interior provinces very well so China's infant mortality rate is probably just as high if not higher. Also like how you call China a third world country, yet the publicists for the CCP like to publicize how modern and developed it is; chose one or the other and stick with it, not whichever fits the propaganda narrative at a particular moment.
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  141. That's about how former Argentinian President Menem did it in the mid-1990s. It seemed to stabilize the financials of the country and the everyday persons.
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  142. Japan's are not really supercarriers, they are made for helicopters and the F-35B (vertical takeoff/landing version). Chian has three aircraft carriers, but two issues are they are petrol-powered so need to dock/refuel which limits their range (the USA's are nuke-powered) and their carrier group ships are not considered sufficient, plus the volume/type of aircraft they can handle is minimal right now.
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  143. The Teamster leader did speak at the convention and personally endorse Trump/Vance, but the national leadership didn't. What Peter missed saying is the regionals and locals of the Teamsters are overwhelmingly supporting Harris/Walz.
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  144.  @asdasdasddgdgdfgdg  Nah, not so much a racial issue here in the USA as you have in Europe. We just have lots of folks coming in illegally with no background checks or other 'vetting' and it overwhelms our border policing agencies. Not much of a problem with religious differences either as there are not a huge number of muslims coming in. If I happen to see a muslim-dressed person in a store its not unusual - not common, but not unusual. Current immigration issue is a lot of Chinese trying to get in illegally and how many of them might be agents of the Chinese government.
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  145. Don't forget that the caste system is still very much in force in India, too. if you're in one of the lower castes your future prospects are limited no matter how 'sharp' you are, so overseas is where you go to advance. If you're in one of the few upper castes then you can advance up the corporate ladder, no matter how much of an idiot you are (as told to me by an Indian associate).
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  146.  @carcotasu081  Fortunately those were just missile tests, not with active warheads. It remains to be seen how the rest of their arsenal functions (if it does).
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  147. He did one not too long ago on the major candidates. Maybe he'll do another after the dust has settled from this weekend's election and China's propaganda apparatus has been able to say something about the results (I'd expect something highly negative or defiant).
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  148.  @427vot  Trump (aka "Felon 47") has got Peter beat by miles/kilometers for that award
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  149. Congo should be interesting, is that Peter's next adventure location?. He can travel up into the 'Heart of Darkness' for a real adventure into the unknown. Say hello to Colonel Kurtz for us, too.
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  150. From a USA perspective I can't see why having more hi-speed trains is something to brag about. With good airline coverage, highways, and local rail transport there is really no need for hi-speed trains. Maybe a train can go 350km/hr, but if it makes stops along the way that reduces its overall travel time quite a bit.
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  151. I'll add in ubiquitous and amorphous. You could apply ubiquitous to all the autocrats/dictators/oligarchs/overlords and the shell or veneer they present to the world, then amorphous to the governing structure below them as they reposition, reorganize, and purge the ranks on a continuous basis to suit their will. Democratic institutions (including republics) are similar but they have the interregnum process to keep some structure in place so things flow a little smoother. The interesting words for today! 😁
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  152. Yeah, Peter did mention the avocado/cartel connection in a previous video. El Chapo expanded into that market, mostly through extortion and protection pay-offs. So now anyone in the USA who eats avocados could be considered complicit in supporting the cartels?
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  153. Maybe they just need better regulations for well operation and closure? I'm in Southern California where there are plenty of wells in suburban areas that do not cause issues (although they are not fracking wells), also many closed wells (there is a process to do that to prevent cross-strata contamination or wells that repressurize and randomly burst up crude oil). He did make a brief mention the wells on highly urbanized Wilshire Boulevard in Los Angeles, good example.
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  154. Love the China bots promoting the concept the USA ignores South America. I guess they can't see over the Andes or through the Central American jungles to see there is (and always has been) quite a bit of trade activity between the two areas, especially from the eastern & northern sides of the continent. Good luck with that major trade highway or rail line over the Andes Mountains between Peru and Brazil, my guess is it isn't going to work out.
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  155.  @jenniferwagner4595  I don't know if its the same now, but you used to be able to buy khat it in stores in some parts of Europe (Netherlands, Denmark come to mind). Not refined, but straight Khat that you could chew and the psychoactive material would leech out of the plant material.
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  156. Were you working inside China or for a Chinese company's facility in another country?
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  157. Yeah, that would help. Congress banned that process after the Three Mile Island incident, and things got even more paranoid after the Hanford (Washington state) situation came to light, so they'd have to try and pass legislation to allow that once more. As Peter mentioned, not much gets done in Washington DC these days.
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  158. Does Iran have enough refining capacity? Just curious, as I'd heard their domestic facilities were limited to cleaning up the crude (dewatering, degassing, sand & dirt removal) and ship it out to foreign customers. They were getting refined products back from other countries as partial payment. (I've been out of the business for a while).
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  159. I'm not so concerned that Russia's nukes won't work, more concerned that they will work haphazardly. Some might launch but the warheads won't work, some might not launch but the warheads detonate at the launch site, and every mix of possibilities in between those. They probably still have enough nukes to cause catastrophic damage across Europe, the USA, and other spots around the world, but Putin is going to cause extensive damage to his own country, too when he pushes that big red button to try and save himself from the humiliation of defeat. I'm not sure how China figures into this messy scenario, we know they have nukes, but how many and in what form is kind of fuzzy AFAIK.
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  160. It seems like most of the folks involved in full-time elected politics are in Congress (the House of Reps or the Senate), and those positions are not term limited - you can keep those seats forever as long as you win re-elections. If you're the president you've got a brutal nationwide campaign, the job is two 4-year terms (maximum) and you've got some pretty wide ranging responsibilities, all your actions are always under the media's microscope, and you are blamed for all the nation's problems (even though Congress is supposed to be making the laws that you carry out). Easy decision for a lot of political folks - if you're in the House or Senate in a 'safe' seat just keep running for re-election and life will be easy, don't even consider running for President.
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  161. Considering Trump 45 fired Rex Tillerson (Sec of State) and Jeff Session (Attorney General) for giving him solid advice and telling him 'no' when he needed to hear it, then looking at Trump 47 appointments like RFK Jr and Tulsi Gabbard, I'm not so sure Trump will 'hit the ground running.'
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  162. I think India has already benefitted (as have others in S.E. & southern Asia) as manufacturing has slowly exited during the COVID situation and economic changes in China. Not a quick rise in economic benefit to the Indian economy, just a steady uptick that continues to grow.
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  163. That was three (maybe four?) boats in the Tasman Sea, which isn't much when considering China bragging about the size of their navy. If it wasn't for them having unannounced live fire exercises in the Tasman Sea without notifying anyone in the surrounding area (including commercial aircraft authorities) it wouldn't have made the news. They can't get an aircraft carrier very far as those are diesel-powered and don't have sufficient support ships, so they are still not a blue-water navy.
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  164.  @SignalCorps1  They were pushing out a lot of short-term bonds earlier this year (can't remember the rates off hand) and the current is a big issue for longer term (5years IIRC) at about 2.5% unsecured. Its just tough to find real non-Chinese info on how Huawei is doing financially or their future plans on the web so all these bonds issue with no real plans behind them (specific investments or ???) just seem odd.
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  165.  @davidg1782  FWIW: Big impact on the Los Angeles area as we had a huge defense contractor presence in the area, and when the Iron Curtain came down the need for all that cool military hardware shrank. There was a huge wave of consolidation and a lot of the defense business got moved out of the area. The Cold War's end also coincided with a flip in the computer/electronics industry from hardware focus to software focus and that further depressed the economy as hardware manufacturing went overseas. Not a good time to be a tech hardware guy in L.A. back in the early 1990s
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  166. China's looking at building an EV plant in Mexico (not sure what Chinese brand it is), so that may become part of Mexico's power mix in the not too distant future. The problem is the volume and reliability of power available to charge cars, and how big of a market there is in Mexico to support an EV plant if the USA blocks imports of those Chinese EVs.
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  167. Well, that sounds a bit disturbing! When you started mentioning the other naval powers I was wondering if you'd mention India and the Indian Ocean trade routes. While India doesn't have a big navy right now, it does have a growing one and it sits in the middle of that important route between the Middle East and S.E. Asia's economies, and the USA has made some overtures on military co-operation with the Indian forces. And considering China is making inroads into the Indian Ocean, it might be something to consider.
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  168. More likely they'd demand 'protection fees'; demanding all the profits from a company would put them out of business and the money would stop, so just take a 'cut.' It would be in areas that they control, and by that I mean they have more control than the local police force.
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  169. Beyond the building of military ships (including submarines) is there any ongoing commercial shipbuilding anywhere in the USA? Even for barges for river transport off goods? I'm not aware of anything beyond the private personal boats used for waterskiing, fishing, etc.
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  170. The term used to be "ready, fire, aim". Now with Trump its "fire, ready, aim"
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  171. They sold some to Ukraine, and they recently started selling them an updated drone that's been causing havoc with Russia way behind the front lines. Turkey's long been known for making good firearms - rifles, handguns, shotguns.
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  172. I think China has its eyes on that area. They'll include it on 'official' map updates and call it the northern "90 Dash Line" or something similar.
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  173. She never was all that well liked when she was District Attorney in San Francisco nor California Attorney General. More on the lib side, leaning a little too hard towards the 'innocent until proven guilty' side of law rather than detaining the repeat offenders. Not sure about her time in the Senate as she was the 'junior' senator and way down the list of the Senate's 'pecking order' which made her pretty insignificant when it came to committee hearings and such.
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  174. PZ alluded to that, the hiring of ex-military nukes guys and gals, but building an electricity-generating nuclear reactor to fit into a sub or boat is quite different than a land-based unit for powering a few suburban cities.
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  175. The way you phrased that, with the word 'empire' and 'domination' in that last sentence says sooo much about how the USA and Russia differ in foreign relations. The USA comes in with diplomates, pens and paper and works out agreements with countries that mutually benefit both, while Russia comes in with 'swords' and other weapons and negotiates a 'partnership' from behind a gun barrel.
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  176. Critical thinking skills. There's not a lot of that used these days by the populace here in the USA. The MSM surely doesn't want it as that would eliminate their devoted audiences (on both sides).
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  177. I thought he might bring up the Southwest USA water wars, which now include Saudi Arabia and their alfalfa farming operations.
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  178.  @TK-en2hq  initially it wasn't as only the northern states acted on it before reconstruction took place. The southern states ratified it as part of re-admission. Kind of forced on them, but they did approve it and can apply it if needed to any rabble-rousing northerners who try to incite insurrection.
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  179. [ Insert a SMH video here ]. When I first heard this scheme a few weeks ago my first thoughts were "doesn't Trump/Felon-47" have any knowledge of the recent history of moving Palestinians around in the Middle East?" and "didn't anyone in the White House inform him of that recent history when he brought this up?". OMFG this is going to end 'bigly badly'.
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  180. Hate to inform you, but even sand has its standards. Delve into concrete mixing for different applications and its gets VERY specific; grain size, contaminates in the batch of sand, contaminates in the sand grains themselves, and more.
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  181. Look at China's finances these days. You'd be foolish to invest your capital in that country until the whole financial system gets straightened out and becomes more transparent.
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  182.  @i6power30  You must be a China propagandist/apologist, that's what Chinese people are told by their government. Lots of gorgeous places all over North America. Lots of forest fires in southern China in the forest areas, and earthquakes in the areas bordering the Himalayan Mountains and off the east coast where the 'Rim of Fire' tectonic plate edge is.
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  183. If you're suggesting a rail line across Colombia from the Caribbean to the Pacific Ocean you might want to check Colombia's geography first. Peter mentions the problem with trains and hills, Colombia is a great example of that situation.
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  184. He filmed this in a part of the Sierra Nevada Mtns backcountry that rarely gets visited by humans (usually just John Muir Trail/PCT thru-hikers). Yosemite Valley is about 5% of the national park and where 95% of the visitors congregate. Also Tuolumne Meadows.
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  185.  @TheMrgoodmanners  The Nile River. The Blue Nile and White Nile combine in Khartoum before flowing into Egypt and northward to the Mediterranean Sea. If there's insufficient water in the Nile then Egypt collapses. That might happen as Ethiopia is building a huge dam to capture Blue Nile water and Ethiopia/Sudan/Egypt talks about water rights were not going well last time I heard anything about it (6 months ago?)
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  186. Close, you're ehading down the right track that Peter is missing. You can take all the semiconductor design courses you want, learn all the book-stuff and absorb all the knowledge from professors, but try applying that in the real world when you have to design something based on the multitude of functions it needs to perform. That's what Samsung, Intel, Nvidia, and others are doing. TSMC takes those designs and fabricates them, but I do think TSMC sources most of the component materials needed for the majority of what it does. The only time the designer would step in to 'source' something is if a new technology or substance is to be used in the fab process, then the design company would work with a source company to produce it and get it to TSMC (or another fab operation).
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  187.  @ElementaryWatson-123  I remember Iran, but as for the economic 'malaise' I thought that was ongoing from the Ford administration and actually started during the Nixon administration due to the Saudi oil embargo, ending of Vietnam (drop in weapons production), and the influx of Japanese products. It didn't end until Reagan got elected and started spending government money on all kinds of weapons that created all kinds of jobs; inflation was rampant but money was flowing into people's pockets. Bush41 was the one who ultimately paid for the economic malaise as the economy slowed to a crawl in his term.
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  188. If you pay attention to finance you'd see they (the CCP) are starting to get more desperate, putting stricter capital controls in place (especially for outflows), subsidizing exports to keep production up and products flowing out to the world, not trying to shift the economy/rebalance it (even though its a communist-style centralized government), and their stock markets are unpredictable ( vs western stock market). Its not going to be a rapid drop, buts its a slow and steady decline. And I wouldn't rule out a "black swan" event occurring that could accelerate the decline.
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  189. That's been old news since everyone in the Middle East was attacking Israel. Back in the 1970s-1980s plenty of Soviet stuff was captured and 'reverse-engineered' and almost always had some critical USA-made parts in it. One of the guys told me it was always 2 to 3 generations behind the USA's equivalent systems.
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  190. What you're saying about "India for Indians" may be economically playing out right now as India (or Indian oil processors) have been dragging their heels on paying for Russian oil with Chinese Yuan. Apparently theirs a 3% cost in the conversion process between rupees and yuan, and Indians would rather use UAE dinhams(?) that are more useful for their international trade needs vs Russia's desire for yuan. And thanks for pointing out the 'rise' of India's slow rise on the world's economic stage, seems a lot of folks are missing that point.
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  191. That would worry the West. China might try a land grab out east, which might halt any Chinese play on Taiwan (if it had not happened yet). The '-stan' countries in Central Asia and old Soviet republics might go for some turf in the central areas where a lot of the natural resources are located.
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  192.  @BillDoughzer69  I thought it was already being transformed into a producing offshore field but progress was halted as its an offshore field that looks like its shared between Guyana and Venezuela, and relations between the two have deteriorated since Maduro has threatened to invade Guyana.
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  193. It depends on the need and the tactics a country decides to use. Tomahawk-style missiles and shorter-range cruise missiles can be equipped with a nuke warhead for submarine deployment. Also mobile lunch system for ground based launching. If its just Europe to Russia those will do.
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  194.  @Awakening_Richard  Nah, at least 30minutes to get to Pasadena/Altadena or the Hollywood Hills from downtown Los Angeles. And the fires are not going to get to the downtown area.
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  195. Actually still 'light' at around midnight until 'dawn' as the sun only dips below the horizon. They don't need to turn the streetlights on in summer. Been there, seen that. Similar in Anchorage. But bloody long winter nights, the complete opposite of summer.
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  196. 1. Wasn't there another big Chinese developer that went bust not too long ago? Green Garden or similar name? 2. Nothing happens in China without Bejing's approval. I'd bet Evergrande was let go to try to either save the smaller, state-owned developers or at least buy time to figure out what to do with them. Maybe the best analogies are a very slow-motion train wreck or turning up the heat slow enough that the frog doesn't realize its being cooked? Or is it too late for that and Evergrande is the first domino in the line to fall and will quickly be followed by the rest.
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  197. The simple explanation is it distracts attention from their invasion of Ukraine. All they eyes focus on Israel/Gaza/Iran, no ones looking directly at Russia and what they are doing inside or Ukrainian territory.
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  198.  @waywardgeologist2520  Yeah, he shouldn't brush off the Moon with its low gravity and relative 'void' of an atmosphere. And with Space X (and probably others in the near future) lowering the cost of spaceflight I could see the transportation time being no worse than the current 2-3 day coast-to-coast shipping here in the USA; can you imagine UPS, FedEx, USPS having a 'price war' on interstellar shipping? 😄
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  199. Those questionable ships probably do have insurance, but its probably the type better known as "not worth the paper its printed on."
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  200.  @cowholy3031  FWIW: You're using the latest 'projection' tactic of all the Chinese-affiliated YT monitors. Could you please expand on China not being like the USA 'invaders' and give a few examples of how China does it? The Taiwanese, Philippines, Vietnam, Japan, and India would all like to be 'educated' on this topic.
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  201. Doesn't China use a port in Eritrea for their naval fleet (when it ventures that far afield)? Not sure what the extent of the operations are, but you'd think they'd want to have a hand in this since their manufactured goods going to Europe are involved. Or are they just docking a few PLA naval ships in East Africa for 'show' purposes?
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  202. Yeah, similar to what I heard. And a lot of the provincial CCP bosses who oversaw it were corrupt, they were trying to make their province/major city look economically great and skimming off their own "cut of the action." That's one reason why you occasionally heard about them "disappearing" or arrested and put on trial for corruption over the last 5(?) years.
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  203. Putin and Xi didn't get the email.
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  204. You should do some research on China's national finances. That'll break the country before the population declines enough to cause proplems. Don't trust statistics out of China, find other independent firms that do international financial analysis and what they think of investing in China.
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  205. A lot of companies that relied on China for assembly/production have already started moving out since the COVID years, so any disruption would be minimal; some higher prices, but no serious effect on the USA economy. I recently bought some electronic products that I assumed would have been made in China but the labels on them say 'Vietnam" and 'Malaysia'; maybe some internal part made in China, but the final assembly and packaging appears to be done elsewhere.
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  206. None in Yosemite, you're thinking Yellowstone. Yosemite is where you slide off water-slickened steep granite that's next to a waterfall and posted with signs saying "Danger, water-slickened steep granite."
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  207. I had to watch the video twice, once to get the info on Iran, the second time trying to figure out what the structure is that's reflected in Peter's sunglasses.
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  208. Those are not even close to Yosemite.
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  209. A loss of AI should be the least of everyone's worry. If China was to invade and take TSMC over, and was unable to operate the plants so the flow of chips stopped, then the stuff that those chips go into wouldn't be made either. A result is shortages of consumer goods like cellphones, EV cars (probably most ICE cars, too), consumer computers, and possibly some military equipment?
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  210. Street noise in New Orleans - When I was part of the workforce I traveled between job sites in/around Los Angeles and I could have sworn there was a cabal of guys with leafblowers following me everywhere I went. You never escape that noise.
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  211. The paranoia following the Three Mile Island power plant situation. That pretty much was the beginning of the end of the nuclear power industry in the USA. Its extremely difficult and expensive to get a plant approved, much less built, in a timeframe that would make it financially viable for a private energy supplier.
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  212. Props to PZ for doing a video in the upper region of his local mountains when a tropically-influenced rainstorm is moving in. That's a pretty good situation for some lightning strikes to hit.
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  213. That's also an issue since we've just had about a 'century of the "golden age" of vaccines and antibiotics. Those all got developed in the first half of the 20th century, drastically reducing mortality and increasing youth and older folks survival rates. Most of the nasty organisms have started to become adapted to all those vaccines and antibiotics so the mortality rates from diseases are slowly starting to creep back up.
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  214. A clothing manufacturer can produce any quality level of clothing you want, you just have to pay for it. Here in the USA we get clothes from all over S.E. Asia/southern Asia/Central America, literally everywhere around the globe, and no single country has a lock on high quality or low quality clothing. I'd fully expect that situation for other manufactured items in the future - electronics, toys, auto parts (maybe complete cars), just about anything.
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  215. Also Mexico, the southern next door neighbor.
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  216.  @FreeSpeech-z6j  It depends on the product. It might work for specialty processes like processing ore into lithium (or some form of lithium), but for a lot of generic products it doesn't make sense. China might be finding that out in the near future.
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  217. They've got the best air force in the region, not worldwide. It composed of aircraft and weapons systems able to protect themselves from enemies nearby but not those from far afield.
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  218. I also thought it was odd since he mentioned the Cumberland Gap, which is not a "waterway" between the Western and Eastern sides of the Appalachian Mountains. Wouldn't it have been easier to take products to the Ohio River for transport back in the 1920s-1960s era?
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  219. Realize the ocean shipping industry is an international mix and it might be hard to keep track of things (especially for the Russians!). It may be Russian cargo but its on a ship flagged/registered in another country and the crew may be from a third country. It gets pretty crazy.
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  220. Any implications for Egypt from Ethiopia's big dam project on the Blue Nile? That could have a very profound effect on the Egyptians seeing how something like 95% of Egyptians live within a short walk of the Nile, especially down south, and depend on it as their water source.
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  221. Even today I thought the waterway leading from the open Arctic to Murmansk was pretty heavily defended due to the submarine port, and probably more so with the Ukrainian conflict and how much damage the Ukrainians have been able to inflict far away from their borders. I just can't see a northern shipping route with all the political and military drama going on these days.
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  222. Yeah, that whole region of smaller countries tucked between Europe, Turkey (and the Middle East), and Russia would be an interesting topic, even if Peter ran over his usual 5-6 minute video length.
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  223. Russian history and Putin's modern-day male 'bravado' or 'machismo' when you're the autocratic ringmaster running the show.
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  224. You trying to imply something?
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  225. With the exception of the Polish and Scandinavians it seems like the Europeans are waiting around for the Russians to make the first move and invade. The problem with that is the Russians are getting real-world battle experience in Ukraine (not sure if that negatively influences the average Russian) that also shows where they need to upgrade equipment or tactics, and from history it seems as long as the 'frontline killing field' is on another country's soil and not theirs they'll be good pushing deeper into Europe.
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  226. My current home was bought in 1993 and I was in my mid-30s. If I would have bought it 5 years earlier it would have been 50% more (5.5X my wage) with the mortgage interest rate 100% higher. Patience is a virtue, wait and see what happens with the economy in the near future, that's what I did.
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  227. Not going to happen. Who'd want to prop that place up any longer? Soviets walked away, Venezuela's just about done with it while trying to save themselves.
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  228. Single moms? I love folks/society saying that, we completely dismiss the 'daddy' part of that equation. Blackrock and their brethren - they might have 1%, maybe 2% of the houses, possibly more in desirable areas, but not enough to significantly upset the market for young couples/single people to buy a home.
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  229. There were 'Harvest Gold" kitchen appliances and hi-low carpet in the house I bought. And you forgot to mention the wood paneling on the walls. 😎 Fortunately no sunken living room!
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  230. Yeah, it'll depend on the country. Here in the USA the construction unions bestow the title 'Operations Engineer' on someone who operates heavy construction equipment. The person on a fire engine crew who operates the water pumping system is known as a 'Fire Engineer'.
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  231.  @SumTingWong888  Its a "Kinda-Sorta" situation. A lot of the companies in China moved production out due to lower costs and better financial situations in neighboring countries. Example: I was looking at new TVs a few weeks ago and noticed TVs from two of the popular Chinese brands, TCL and Hisense, are labeled as being 'Made in Vietnam' on the boxes and on the display TVs. Smartphone and laptop computer production is also leaving China. I bet the tariffs are imposed on an item-by-item basis.
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  232. I'm glad you mentioned middle school, but wish you would have mentioned it earlier. The ones in my area (along with the high schools) used to have shop classes teaching those 'blue collar' skills you mentioned will be in high demand - woodworking, metalworking, machinery, auto, welding, printing, etc. Those classes have long disappeared as the instructors retired and no one was available to take their place. Unless a kid gets exposed to those types of fields outside of the youth education system there isn't much to pique their interest in them.
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  233. I'm surprised Peter didn't give that a more prominent place in this video. I've known there's been some back-and-forth with ethnic groups in the area that cross international borders, but leaders in those countries have aways seemed to be something of a 'strongman' to maintain those borders.
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  234. I thought the Houthis were more interested in thwarting Israeli/Jewish causes rather than being generalized terrorists in the Gulf of Oman and Red Sea (although there is the long simmering feud with the Saudi Arabia that dates back to the 'tribal' days before both countries borders were established).
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  235. Worried is a better term. His vague economic plans will only cause a rise in inflation, interest rates, and retail prices; strange for a guy who has a degree in economics from Wharton at U-Penn. He'd be better off leaving things alone (including the Federal Reserve/Powell). As for foreign policy if he abandons Ukraine to a Putin take-over, then Taiwan to a China takeover, he would embolden both countries to continue their takeovers (economically if not militarily) and control a lot of the world's economy. The Middle East is kind of a weird place, its own ebb-and-flow situation. The USA military bases there help keep the conflicts in check, pulling them out opens up the possibility of Sunni-Shiite conflict, with the Israelis possibly getting dragged in. Maybe Harris was the lucky one by losing this election.
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  236.  @heroes8844  That's true when you look into Vietnamese history, China has never faired well in skirmishes with Vietnam. I can see the Vietnamese being very cautious when getting into any relationship with China or the USA, but possibly favoring the USA due to the examples the USA has set in relations with other nearby countries.
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  237. Could China simply set up a blockade around Taiwan? Just like the mainland, Taiwan is dependent on imports, too, so preventing commercial shipping from coming/going seems like an easier way to do it with less loss of life. Restricting commercial aircraft would be a little trickier but still possible. It would probably take just as long to take it over this way as it would with a full-scale land invasion.
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  238. The purchase near the military base in northern California turned out to be by a group of very rich Silicon Valley investors looking to develop their own version of Utopia. The Chinese are investing in bio-labs further south near Fresno.😉
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  239. As for chemicals used as ingredients for a lot of pharmaceuticals, China is just the cheapest supplier right now. Other sources are available. I'm not sure how insulin is made so I'll not include that one.
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  240. The title and video are kind of odd to me, not only no mention of South Africa, but if there is only India remaining then is there really a BRICS organization? I'm wondering what will dissolve faster, BRICS or the E.U.?
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  241. Right now I'd say its nil for the next decade (at least). China, Russia, South Africa are all in economic trouble. Can't say too much about India and Brazil as they seem to be a little bit insular and smug with themselves. China, India, and Russia all seem to be cautious of each other. They admitted 10 new members but I don't see much in any of those.
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  242. Grover Cleveland was President 'Veto'. He wouldn't let Congress pass legislation that spent funds on wasteful pet projects in members' districts, he let his veto pen do the talking. I don't think just having non-consecutive presidential terms is anything but coincidental.
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  243. You'd like it in a very subtle, very refined British way? Well BULLOCKS!
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  244. With the clandestine rise of illicit activities Peter mentions going on in San Marino involving Russians, I'm thinking why did China turn Hong Kong and Macau back into fully-CCP controlled parts of China? Those would have been great points for laundering money, gold, diamonds, documents found at Mar-A-Lago, and shady people.
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  245. I've got to think it also did not involve anything to do with real 'peace' between Russia and Ukraine. Regardless if this was signed and it transferred minerals rights control to the USA, if Russia was able to fully control Ukraine the contract wouldn't be worth the paper it was printed on anyway.
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  246. I wondered when the Chinese were going to try and silence him.
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  247. I've never had a problem with bears in 40 years of hiking in the Sierra Nevada Mtns. Just don't leave food out in an accessible location. The same applies in Colorado so Mr. Zeihan should be aware of it already.
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  248. Isn't the UAE the banking center of that area? And they are not shy about taking in large sums from anyone considered a scoundrel on the world stage in a quiet manner to help with anonymity.
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  249.  @user-nu9zv9bq3n  True. He was positive on France, optimistic on the U.K. and Spain (?) although both have some issues to address, and quite negative on Germany. The rest of Europe was nothing spectacular besides the E.U. as a whole is at a crossroads.
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  250. He mentioned the date at the start of the UK/RUS part of the video.
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  251. You're on the right track. Different brines from the different 'salty' places on Earth contain different chemicals. The only thing I know that's extracted from the salt flats in Utah is potash in the Wendover area of the Bonneville Salt Flats. Not sure of anything around the Great Salt Lake; isn't it a nature preserve or similar?
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  252. Good call. I got lucky and worked for an electrician neighbor while in college, got my e-contractor's license about 6 months after graduating from college. Slow economy back then and the contractor's license saved my financial "backside" until I got a job. I still kept doing the e-contracting on weekends, and a few times when I got laid off from white collar jobs, so the extra $$$ came in handy. I still do it now in retirement (simpler stuff).
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  253. Hasn't that been an on-again/of again situation for the past few decades?. Tribal/ethnic loyalties, western-designated borders, and valuable resources. Uganda's in it too, although they say they are not, then they say they might be, then say its just border security.
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  254. The former guy used in these Q & A type sessions was much better.
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  255. I'd say no as a lot of production is done outside of California these days. Some is still done here due to the nature of television (its episodic nature requires quick turn-around times), but major motion pictures are done all over the nation, if not the world. The big studios still have headquarters and sound stages here, so administration and some production is still done, but writing can be done anywhere too.
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  256. aka "Jesse Plemmons shades". Where you from? 😳
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  257. That caught my attention right away, too. I wonder if that's a Russian or Ukrainian term? 😄
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  258. One correction: new members in the USA's House of Representatives. It wouldn't add more, but simply reapportion the existing 435 to give those Canadian 'states' their fair shares of representatives. But yeah, adding 20 more senators to the USA Senate; with the odds the majority will be 'lefties', that isn't happening.
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  259. Sorry to hear that about the nuclear industry, I thought nuclear power would slowly get a second look as a viable power source with new tech like SMRs. Now if only the software industry would slow down/stop with the silly updates to their programs which provide no benefit to the end consumer except headache caused by poor Q.A. during the development. Glitch, glitch, please reboot; glitch again, please reload your OS. 😡 And the software-by-subscription applications.
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  260. The EU is the second biggest market for cocaine (after the USA) and also has opioid abuse problems, I'm sure those manufacturing fentanyl have considered the EU as a new market, if they haven't already started imports.
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  261. Twitter grew and became a dumpster fire, it got cleaned up a bit (as Peter mentions in this video), but Musk bought it and let all the 3-year-olds back in the room turning it back into a dumpster fire. I dropped out a while back. YT seems to be heading down a similar path but more like broadcast media, becoming a channel where the advertising and other 'noisy stuff' gets interrupted occasionally by a useful video.
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  262. I'd think it would be dispersion of manufacturing from its current 'heartland' in China to a variety of other countries in southeast and southern Asia, maybe even Africa. Anything that comes back to the USA will be high-value stuff, not toys and games and clothing and household goods from Walmart/Target/Home Depot and similar retail stores. And as for financial markets, I wonder if Peter has taken note that the average P/E ratio these days is way up. 15-20 is considered healthy for a business, 30 is considered overvalued, but right now a lot are sitting at 60. 😳
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  263. Is that a Rastafarian-themed winter beanie made in India? Not a whole lot of need for those in Jamaica, might as well use it in Colorado. Ja, mon! 🥴 I always thought the Indian Navy (and the rest of its military) would control in Indian Ocean basin seeing how the other major powers only had very limited involvement in the area (Diego Garcia comes to mind, UK and USA). China's trying to get a foothold in the area but will probably never get very influential if their 'system' contracts as PZ always mentions.
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  264. Yep, its a power plant and it runs on natural gas. I guess he didn't go by the entrance and look at the sign before making this video? The portion behind the smokestack on the left has been shut down and is about to be demolished, the one on the right will be kept operating as its power is still needed to keep the lights on in the high-electricity-demand summer months. There's a whole new natural gas fired power plant right behind what you see, too.
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  265.  @sifu64  The NY hush money trial looked pretty solid to me. Any link to this Yale law professor's great breakdown of 6th amendment violations? I'd love to read it/listen to it.
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  266. I guess you didn't bother to research the amount of trade going on between South America/Central America and the United States, and between those countries and others outside the Western Hemisphere. Best solution to an economic problem is to get the economy active, not just throw temporary aid at it.
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  267. China's cars are not that old, so don't judge their "quality" based on subjective reviews of all the software and bright LED displays in them as they come out of the factory. The only data I've seen on drivability is some from Australia and the actual driving components seem to be pretty mediocre and lots of nagging problems with drivetrains/steering/handling/corrosion within the first 20,000K miles/30,000km.
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  268. As long as those people don't loose their jobs due to the lack of demand which causes the product manufacturers/service providers to lay them off. Its a vicious cycle that's about as close to self-perpetuating as you can get (economically speaking).
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  269.  @Ayvengo21  They were doing that back in the 1980s when I was working in hi-tech manufacturing. There were plenty of USA-made semiconductors found in captured Soviet systems back then so it started way before that time.
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  270.  @3d1e00  Shell companies and strawmen intermediaries have been around for ages. Back in the 1980s a popular route for sensitive goods was to get them to Europe, transit to Austria, then through the Austria/Hungary border (a little 'looser' than others) and from there they went deeper into the USSR.
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  271. In some ways they have. A lot of their products sold here in the USA are made here and are unique to the USA market. I know Toyota makes a whole lot of vehicles we will never see in the USA, most being smaller cars that USA citizens just will not buy.
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  272.  @Wolf-Spirit_Alpha-Sigma  Another way to look at it was NATO was relevant during the "Us-vs-Them" Cold War/Soviet Union days, but when that collapsed around 1990 it left NATO's function in question. The Ukraine situation with Russia's aggressive tactics seems to have brought NATO's relevance back into focus, and some decision has to be made about its future direction.
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  273. Bigger question is why does Iran think it needs nuclear weapons? A major ego 'flex' or just to intimidate neighbors?
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  274. Some of the newer refrigerants are also more reactive with the rubber seals and gasket materials used on the older A/C and refrigeration systems, too. If you try to go 'cheap' and just replace the refrigerant, those old seals/gaskets will have deterioration problems resulting in constant leak after a few months.
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  275. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Argentina nationalized oil production quite a while ago under the state-owned YPF Company. Its corrupt as can be. One of Milei's goals was to sell it off to let it run on the free-market, also other state-owned companies. If its turned private then landowners and the oil company (or companies) can wheel & deal among themselves to drill and produce crude.
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  276. You're post reminds me of that scene in 'Sicario' just after the team exits the tunnels and Josh Brolin has to rough up Emily Blunt's character a little bit, most notably his little speech to her about American's drug abuse habit.
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  277.  @RustyStringz  Peter got his from the "Civil War" collection, Jessee Plemmons specials.
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  278.  @stevejackson5000  He's partially right on that one. Carter started it by loosening the regulations, Reagan took it to another level of de-regulation bordering on abandonment.
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  279. Now I'm wondering how Sudan feels about this since flows of the Blue Nile and White(?) Nile come together at Khartoum before heading down to Egypt. Maybe another video for Peter?
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  280. There's already a geothermal plant near Mammoth Lakes, California. I haven't heard anything about it in quite a few years so either its running smoothly or got shut down, have to look it up and find out. Lots of mineral/calcification problems with those, but its a maintenance issue normal to geothermal power
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  281. Sputnik was a huge motivator during the 'Cold War', an 'attack' on the USA as a leader in technological achievement and applying those achievements to commercial and military use at the time. But I'd agree PZ missed it big time by leaving out the 9/11 attack.
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  282. Considering how poor Venezuela is in general, and even though the country is littered with AK-47 weapons that could (theoretically) create a significant militia to thwart and invasion, does anyone have enough spare cash to buy the ammo for all those AK-47s?
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  283. Back then the USA had the same insular foreign policy that's being pushed today. Look how well that worked out then, multiple years of war rather than shorten it with a good logistics system.
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  284.  @nephilimninjaofnibiru2907  Yep. pretty much Mexico and Southern California. While they are still grown is So-Cal, Mexico took over most of the market when NAFTA became reality, turning a lot of the So-Cal groves into new housing tracts.
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  285. I think he's taking a long-term view with this video.
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  286. Can anyone supply us with a little more context to Zeihan's video, as in does anyone know if these Russian weapons storage sites are true 'weapons bunkers' or just anonymous warehouses? With the way these get reported in the media I'm believing they are just warehouses (like the proverbial concrete 'tilt-up' design here in the USA), so if you can locate them among other buildings you've got a fairly easy target.
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  287. Except its been taken over many times (remember the Mongols running it for a few hundred years from about 1200-1400?) and the 'warlord' rulers of the provinces that kept attacking each other to gain influence and land, then losing it, then retaking it, and over and over. Its never been a stable 'one government' area until recent times.
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  288.  @theasianjaywalker4455  Chinese 50 cent army on the 'web warpath' trying to redirect the conversation this early in the morning?
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  289. I'm with Zeihan on this one. I thought one of the objectives of NATO was to limit who had nukes (the USA, U.K. and France) and those would serve as the 'shield' while the rest of Western Europe concentrated on more conventional military technology to deter and thwart a land-based Russian attack.
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  290. 1. The trolley line in Addis Ababa Ethiopia. No parts available, no specialized service staff were trained to keep it maintained and running as part of its construction. Poor analysis of the project's financial viability before constructing it. 2. The rail line in Kenya from the interior to Nairobi to Mombasa. It was supposed to bring growth and development to southwest Kenya, but the farmers in that region still find it cheaper to have trucks take their goods to Mombasa. The rail line still serves passengers, but it can't make enough money to cover operational costs with just passenger fares. It was originally planned to include a line extension to Uganda but Uganda didn't want it. Once again poor financial analysis of the project's viability by China before construction.
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  291.  @jimkuan8493  Crazy wumao.
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  292. Where have you been the last 50-60-100 years, stuck behind the Great Firewall of China? The USA and USA-based companies have been all over the world building projects in other countries that are applicable to those country's needs and financial capabilities, and involving the local populations in their development and maintenance for long-term success. China has only recently started doing it and builds what isn't really needed, just what China thinks they can stick the local population with.
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  293.  @TheLucanicLord  I'm not an engineer, I got a chemistry degree many years ago, made a good living selling chemicals since I had that chemical knowledge and could work with a customer to find what they needed based on what they wanted to achieve. Customers really appreciated the help and the residuals I got from ongoing orders were quite substantial, not to mention follow-on orders for other chemicals.
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  294. "But I die a little slower On the train to Birmingham" - John Hiatt Been there once, not a bad place. Don't go on a Saturday during football season if you're not a fan of the game.
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  295. Good point. I forgot that the cartel(s) had taken over the avocado business in Mexico. Its more of an extortion and shakedown scheme than actually growing/harvesting/transporting the fruits. So everytime you buy an avocado or take a bite of guacamole you're supporting the Mexican cartels.
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  296. He's a little behind on the processes, but not by much. But he's ahead of what I'm familiar with from custom small batch semiconductor production (not using ASML-type tech) back in the early 1990s so its interesting.
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  297.  @mmitleidt7969  Let's wait and see what happens with the "autocrat-in-chief" until the end of 2024. It should be an interesting election year here in the USA and I've got to believe the European leaderships (plural) are watching things closely, too.
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  298. I always thought it had started with African tribal loyalty coming first, the political boundaries and systems set up by colonial rulers coming second. Once the colonists left the tribal loyalties resurfaced, including dissatisfaction for those that had 'played ball' with the colonial masters.
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  299. And I suppose that 'new point of gravity' will be China? Yeah, I'm sure they'll all like it when they become merely provinces under the authority of Bejing, versus the USA having true diplomatic relations and allowing them to chart their own economic and political course.
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  300.  @felipemachado9887  Mostly its been a constant re-financing of existing IMF/World Bank loans. Argentina did get 'cut-off' from new financing when Nester Kirchner was in office, but I believe that resulted in a restructuring and reduction in the existing loan, and the cut-off was for any more funds until a significant payback plan was in place and working.
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  301. To sum it up, shit's about to get real. I'm surprised PZ didn't mention the shipping lanes through southeast Asian waters. Things are getting a little testy in the corner of the world, nobody's attacked or commandeered anyone else's ship(s) yet, but it's still a possibility that could be the trigger point.
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  302. Trump's border wall will suddenly turn from being overrun by Central/South Americans to Chinese people. 😉 If Xi is still in power I could see an invasion of Taiwan just to instill nationalism and divert attention from the economic collapse.
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  303. If its a brine solution, would the initial processing in Arkansas be done with osmosis filtration to remove the lithium-containing alkaline solids?. Much better than the air-drying method, but the brine waste will get the environmentalists riled up. Also need to mention there are huge deposits across the border from Chile in Bolivia, but Bolivia has an extreme nationalistic (and negative) fervor when it comes to past negative experiences with 'wealth extraction' by colonial masters probably makes it a no-go right now no matter how valuable the lithium is.
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  304.  @slomo4672  Try comparing a subway station in one of China's bigger cities that's the same age as a subway station in New York. I'll even let you choose a Chinese one that's only 40 years old. New York's may be old, but they're far better maintained than China's older subway lines.
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  305. Love the committee set-up of the '6 millennials who can do math' - Larry, Moe Curly, Thelma, Louise, Lafonda(?), almost all Boomers. I'm surprised you didn't put a gen-x'r/millennial like John Wick in there to organize the 'dirty work' of 'whacking' the budget.
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  306. I've always wondered if you're going that fast (Mach 8, about 5,000 mph) how the heck can you steer the dang thing to precisely hit your target? And that's if the missile doesn't get so hot that it fragments itself and turns into something that looks like an amorphous blob of overcooked oatmeal that'll go "splat" on a wall.
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  307. China complains they don't have access to the latest semiconductor technology, yet they say they have the greatest semiconductor technology being produced by Huawei and other Chinese semiconductor companies. Must be a new tech called anti-gravity rhetoric.
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  308. You forgot one - which television news station has the cutest weather girl. I love teasing my sister-in-law about her obsession with the liberal slant of the television news and that they have a hard time broadcasting a good weather forecast with the cute & clueless bimbos they put in front of the cameras.
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  309. Found out the Chinese developer I was thinking of was Country Garden. Dang, can't keep track of all these Chinese goings on without a scorecard, whether in China itself or a train station in London.
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  310. And then there is California. The eco-friendly government started shutting down all the 'evil' nuclear plants except one (Diablo Canyon) and also kept a few seaside natural gas plants operating (using seawater for cooling, sucking in a few fish as it operates). Without those the state would risk rolling brownouts during the heavy electricity use in the summertime.
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  311. I wonder if Peter has a separate suitcase for sunglasses when he travels? Do you think he checks it in for flights or brings it on board as a carry-on?
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  312. Cut-and-paste CCP propaganda about China's energy situation? Chicoms can't be bothered to listen to a 5 minute video.
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  313. Cut the Aussies some slack. Their troops are probably on patrol for Chinese ships that have been told by Xi to set up a new base on the north of that 'big island' down under, part of the program to protect the southern end of the South China Sea.
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  314. China is still catching up, not doing better. A single system like high-speed rail is an apples/oranges situation, and not an end-all for comparing one country to another. It may be right for China, but not for the USA.
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  315. PZ did mention its been the last 16 years, which seems more accurate to me.
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  316. A lot of Russian equipment is copied from western equipment designs, so you could say they've already been doing that. Old communist tactic, just steal the plans and copy, no need spent time and money doing the research and designing something new.
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  317. This aged quite well, but the only thing I was wondering was what ever happened to all the semiconductor plants in Singapore/Malaysia? I worked in another (now obsolete) part of the industry fab-ing and 'assembling' thick film semi-conductors and a lot of the 'cutting-edge' chips back then were made in Singapore with some plants across the border in Malaysia. I'm assuming those older chips are now the ones fab'd and assembled in China and Singapore has moved on.
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  318. "Peakers' are not just power plants. The natural gas power plant near me has a 'peaker' operation which is trailers loaded with lithium batteries that are charged during the slow power use times of the day for use at peak times. Its more a 'sideload' operations (best descriptive phrase I can think of), sitting there waiting to be drawn upon when folks jump on the web all-at-once to watch PZ videos.
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  319. I can't see 'due process' having anything to do with who the Democrats nominated for their candidate, its an internal party process.
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  320. That would be interesting. I can't find a lot on it but it seems to be Chinese designed, Chinese funded, Chinese built (labor and materials), and now Chinese operated; no local Peruvians involved so no benefit to the local economy.
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  321. If the mines where these 'impurities' metals are found are already in operation then the ramp up shouldn't be excessively long - some permitting and environmental work might be needed and slow things down, but it'll be workable. If we're discussing new mines, its more likely Xi will be gone as the leader in China and Chinese exports will resume before anything is developed before even the regulatory paperwork to get a new mining operation approved is beyond its first draft.
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  322. I'm pretty sure these will employ 'fat-man' and 'little boy' type nuke technology, just re-designed to a smaller size to be deliverable by a missile. No need to try for full-thermonuclear if all you want to do is keep the peace in the neighborhood.
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  323. Speaking of long-term sovereign debt and the intro to this video: Amazing how the internet, YT, and other sites originally started out almost two decades ago as free and producers of content looked at it as great publicity for their 'brand', now its being redefined as a product and is being put behind paywalls of various types, from 'absolutely you must sign up to view' to 'voluntary donations on Patroen (and other methods)'. No more subscriptions for me, I'm tapped out.
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  324.  @joshg5122  I've got a brother who works for a medical device manufacturer, cardiology-focused, from stents to heart/lung machines. Almost all of the plastic parts are fab'd in Mexico, and the assembly is done down there, too. The heart/lung machines' parts are fab'd down there with some sub assembly, but final assembly is up here in the USA. Most of their USA facilities are just offices attached to warehouses, no significant manufacturing/fabrication/assembly. That seems to be the direction things are going, so I kind of question Peter's knowledge of this topic. Semiconductors plants used to exist in big numbers in the USA back in the day, now they are all overseas except for the hi-end and military-sensitive stuff. Cheers
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  325. Not to worry if you're a Mexican in Mexico, as a lot of us in the USA never supported the "Orange Jesus" (he got 49.8% of the popular vote in the election, so less than a majority), and a lot of his 'disciples' are having misgivings (menosprecio/contempt) about voting for him as he has backed away from his campaign promises (which were ridiculous to begin with).
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  326. Not to worry, a lot of USA citizens hold Trump in a negative view, too (he won with 49.8% of the vote), and that may increase as he continues to break his campaign promises; most of it was just to attract voters. As for menosprecio, I think that means 'contempt' in English, so perfectly appropriate. He still has to deal with the USA Congress to get legislation passed, and with the House of Reps having a very slim Republican majority I'll bet there will be a few 'defections' in voting to thwart some of what he wants. The drug problem has to be worked on from both side of the border, as does immigration. As for economics Mexico/USA/Canada can form a good partnership, maybe include some Central American or South American partners in an alliance (the USA already has a partial free-trade agreement with Colombia). Cheers/Salud.
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  327. No need to do that. China has three big aircraft carriers, but they are all petrol-powered (limited range). And China has been pissing off its neighbors over illogical turf wars (South China Sea and border incursions in the Himalyas) so they don't have any good allies in eastern Asia. The best they can hope for among those neighbors is indifference.
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  328. Fentanyl? Cocaine? I thought the bigger concern was Avocados from Mexico. The Mexican cartels now control the Mexican avocado business. When you buy a few avocados at the grocery store, or dip you chips into that bowl of guacamole while watching the Super Bowl, remember that you're helping support the Mexican cartels and all they do to disrupt life.
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  329. Mexico City brings up sovereignty issues and throw a temper tantrum at the USA once in a while, especially every five years around Mexican presidential election time. But then they realize there's the NAFTA money train (and the "coca caboose" on it) bringing money and jobs into the country from "El Norte" and settle back down.
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  330. And now the additional factor. Rather than increase domestic industrial capacity and create jobs they are looking at building overseas auto plants in the markets imposing import tariffs. While it might increase bottom-line revenue for companies like BYD or Geely (and the CCP), wouldn't that exacerbate the problems of unemployment and overbuilt industrial capacity at home?
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  331. By that logic the Trade rep pick PZ describes will be the first one fired, second will be Rubio unless Xi Jingping gets under Trump's thin skin at day one.
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  332.  @dalehill6127  This. Hungary/Orban has been a 'bag of dicks' (as Peter states) to the E.U. so I would not be surprised if the rest of the E.U. doesn't care at this point.
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  333. Its $35 trillion USA dollars and China is the USA's second largest foreign debt creditor after Japan; the United Kingdom is third but pretty far behind Japan and China in total USA debt owned. How much outstanding foreign debt does China have?
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  334. Trump's taking power-play tips from his buddies Putin and Xi, grabbing land and sea territories wherever they find it convenient for their respective countries. Love that quip at the end about agriculture, if not wheat then you grow other more valuable crops like citrus, avocados, soybeans, and cannabis(?). 😵‍💫🥴
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  335. A lot of stuff I used to buy in stores I now buy on the web. Better selection and pricing. But I don't use Amazon as to me it looks like a lot of cheap Chinese junk that isn't going to last very long.
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  336. I'd think you are being too generous with the Renminbi/Yuan (whatever its called these days). Its value is so opaque due to Bejing's controls I wouldn't think it to be in any money manager's "top 10" worldwide currencies. Maybe its there just due to the size of the Chinese economy? I'd include the Swiss Franc and Singapore's dollar before the Chinese currency.
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  337.  @Barkebain  Touche!
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  338. More likely just a bit of PLA code in the drones sold to the USA entities (like the military) that renders them useless.
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  339. Private business experience in management, or government experience in management?
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  340.  @captainyossarian388  $8 trillion in his 4 years 2017-2021.
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  341. The Republicans will almost certainly pick up California congressional district #47, Katie Porter's seat. It was morphed into a Republican-dominated district back in the 2020 census realignment and Porter (Dem) barely won it in 2022. The Repub in the race is a well-known party 'operative' who was known for some dirty political deeds back in the 1990s so that may add another member to the far-right House faction you mention. EDIT: Hopefully, even with this one flip here in the "People's Republic of California", the Dems can take enough seats on November to flip the House chamber to Dem control and the legislative agenda might get moving again.
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  342. I'm wondering about Peter's comments on lithium being a good storage medium in buildings. I'm not familiar with all the battery types used currently for solar- power-generated electricity, but everything I've seen while working in the construction industry have been outside of buildings, and above a certain size they have to be separated from the occupiable building itself (new tech makes for a chaotic situation in the building/fire codes and can easily change from year to year). Putting them inside a building, especially a basement, with the potential for tough-to-tackle fires, would be a huge no-no at this point in time.
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  343.  @thomasjaggers3576  No biggie. We DO have an area as potentially bad as Yellowstone, the Long Valley Caldera on the other side of the Sierra NEvada Mtns from Yosemite. Mammoth Mtn Ski Resort is the west rim of the 'caldera cone', the other is about 15 miles to the east (Glass Mtn near the Nevada state line). Not as active with impressive geysers, boiling mud pits, and geothermal sites as Yellowstone, but if either goes off we're all "f'd".
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  344. From my past employment life a little over a decade ago - A lot of the top-end weapons 'chips' are not made in Taiwan, but home-made here in the USA. While TSMC may focus on the high-end processing that puts more transistors on a tiny chip of semiconductive silicon (or other base material), there are quite a few smaller ops in the USA focused on making a chip based on the final application like the violent forces and temps of a missile launching, flying through the atmosphere, acquiring its target, and exploding properly. Hi-tech as hi-teach can get. Not sure if that's still the same these days but I imagine it is.
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  345. The only advantages I know of for sour crude are the ability to use those 'sour' waste products for asphalt and mastic compounds. Think road asphalts (different grades), tars for sealants (roofing tar and patching compounds like the famous 'Henry's'). Another biggie is a compound that when finished looks like tar balls that is good for a fuel, but it's shipped overseas as the pollution level from its combustion is way higher than allowed in the USA. Also additives for synthetic rubber, some others I can't remember.
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  346. Love the beanie! Question you might consider for another video on Russia - is it possible it could break up into multiple countries going west to east? The populated 'White Russia' space in the west up to the Urals Mtns, then different regions going out eastward to the Pacific Ocean. I've seen some mention of this in videos that took into account the history of Asia and the peoples occupying that vast space, might it be possible Moscow could let this happen considering all the natural resources produced across those 'midlands'?
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  347.  @e.d9993  Thanks for that.
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  348.  @pjpredhomme7699  I'll agree with that as I've got a masters degree in Chemistry; just a bachelors degree would have been enough. I did get an electrical contractors license but it was while working for a neighbor during school breaks and weekends in college to gain skills, no IBEW-type apprentice program. I worked full time in the chemistry world since the pay and benefits was more predictable then did electrical work for folks at odd times (weekends and such) and it made for a good side income.
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  349. Its all about votes in the USA, and election contributions for the upcoming Presidential election. Lots more Jewish folks and Jewish-based organizations in the USA who donate to presidential campaigns than there are Arabs/Palestinians with big wallets. Correct me if I'm wrong on this.
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  350. Assad was toppled and is out of the picture, so its not really a war zone anymore. Maybe call it a 'dynamic' or 'fluid' situation, or "government order is in flux" or "its amorphous"? Or maybe just call Syria a "mosh pit in the middle of a Middle Eastern desert"? Choose one of your liking.
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  351. The iron and bauxite situations reminds me of Bolivia and silver and the country's fear of outsiders. All the easy-to-mine silver has been taken out of the ground and all that's left is a lot of low-grade stuff that requires mechanized and sophisticated machinery to extract profitably. But Bolivia, in its nationalistic fervor, won't allow outside countries to come in and do that so it loses a lot from not partnering with foreign companies to mine and process the low-grade ore on a profitable scale. Thus the country has lost a valuable source of jobs and income. They do have other minerals (lithium being the most notable these days), but its the same situation with those minerals, too.
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  352. This sounds about right to me with what I've known about China's capital markets/systems. It's probably one of the reasons that Chinese-affiliated clandestine bio-lab was found near Fresno, California a few weeks ago; they needed access to the American business development system. I'd imagine it helps explain Chinese computer hacking and espionage, too, as they don't have a culture of 'free-thinking' technology-savey 'nerds' in their state-controlled environment and find it easier to steal information rather than develop it. That leaves them with the same issue the Soviets had - their tech systems developed from stolen tech are always one generation (minimum) behind, they don't quite understand the nuances of the tech they steal, so they don't know how to properly use them to get the best results.
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  353.  @quantumbacon  Yep LEDs are a form of semiconductor. I just can't see me needing those lights when I can control them from a dimmer switch on the wall. I'm all about keeping it simple and adaptable where I can.
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  354.  @keystonekabes  Just to get a little more specific, its launching a missile from a moving launch pad and hitting a moving target that's 1000km away.
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  355. The Russian method of reporting this: " Today we had a plane crash outside Moscow where one of the listed passengers was Mr. Prigozhin, and we are assuming he was killed in the crash. If we find out he was not killed in the crash we will immediately get to work on correcting the situation to make sure he is dead."
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  356. It sounds more like "detain in Mexico" and ship them back to their home country from there.
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  357. So what's easier to produce and sell, soda bottle meth or garage fentanyl? Just asking for an unemployed friend.
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  358. Good choice, I'd always looked a Bush Sr. that way, but I don't know if that one issue would make him a favorite. On a more domestic note I did like Grover Cleveland as he was willing to say 'NO' to budget-busting program bills that came across his desk for signature; not afraid to use the 'veto' power of the president. It cost him when running for re-election, but helped for 4 years later when he got re-elected for another non-consecutive term. Or Grant, who acted as a check on the northern patriotic politicians who still wanted to punish the secessionist southern rebels from the Civil War era. Or Coolidge who did nothing when a recession took hold, and the economy recovered on its own in a relatively short period of time.
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  359. Its more about providing Mexicans with job opportunities rather than having them come here (the USA) seeking job opportunities. Its had both positive and negative outcomes.
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  360. In reality they already are. Their opponents will do it at election time, finding every piece of 'dirt' they can to try and sway votes to their side. Court convictions, moral lapses in judgement, former drug use, maybe attending a 'fringe group' rally (right of left leaning), etc.
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  361. 3:40 - "The way you train people for COVID operations . . ."; a little slip of the tongue, getting covert and COVID mixed up? Anyway, I remember those Soviet days well when I was working for a defense contractor and we had yearly training to thwart any leaks of confidential and secret information.
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  362. I don't think Canada would build "the bomb" for the simple reasons we have joint defense, missile detection, submarine detection capabilities with them in northern Canada. Any nukes Russia launches at the USA are going to come in over the north polar region and overflight Canada on its way to USA targets (maybe a few targeting the Toronto-to-Montreal corridor).
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  363. If Trump is bringing over staff from other federal enforcement agencies to help ICE, does that mean that there's fewer agents to help out with stuff like gun smuggling to Mexico (ATF agents) that the Mexicans are raising in Trump's cross border 'tit-for-tat' trade war? The way he's trying to re-allocate resources without getting Congressional approval for the capital re-allocation looks a lot like how he runs his "Trump Corporation" business as revealed in the NY state business fraud trial of last year. This is going to be a long four years.
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  364. Texas' grid will fail before California's grid (unless the flow of middle east oil gets cut off, which CA depends on). More interesting is the irony of PZ talking about a nation run on communist political philosophy rather than a budget/economic priorities while in Huntington Beach, California, a municipality run more on MAGA principles/philosophy rather than budget and economic priorities.
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  365. Peter alludes to this in the first half of the video. Its the high-value stuff that'll be re-shored, not the low-end stuff. Don't expect the basic nuts and bolts and screws and nails you need for that construction project to be made here in the USA; specialty stuff like semiconductor design (as he mentions) will be here, but not the fabrication unless its the high-value chips. Keeping kids in school to get a good education/advanced education will still be essential.
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  366. Large shower spaces instead of bathtubs, both in new hones and remodels. If you want a tub that's an upgrade in a new home. In some newer homes undergoing remodeling you can't put a tub on a second floor without modifying the structural beams of the house to carry the excess weight of the tub and its water capacity.
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  367. Just throwing out a wild card here, but maybe China has something to do with it? With the way 'Xi & Company' have been bullying neighbors in east and southeast Asia, I wouldn't put it past the Chinese to indirectly (and clandestinely) assist a group(s) of Siberian native peoples with separatist desires and fed up with Moscow's domination.
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  368. More like industry wants pre-trained, pre-certified trade workers with multiple years of experience to work for wages just barely above minimum wage. Those of you who went out and got the training & certification need not apply as the industry does not want to spend labor time training you on company products/procedures and letting you get up-to-speed over a few weeks timeframe. So industry complains about a skilled worker shortage and they can't find anyone who can do it EXACTLY as THEY want it and need it done BY THEIR SPECIFIC COMPANY POLICIES.
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  369.  @zacklewis342  Easy to do with a few well-placed missiles. Its a short flight over the Persian Gulf to the Saudi's oil refineries and the main oil field areas so reaction time by the Saudis and USA wouldn't be good enough. I'm not sure if the USA has a few anti-missile systems in Saudi Arabia or Qatar. If it did happen I'd expect things to expand further as all the large oil customers jump in to protect their interests, militarily or diplomatically.
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  370.  @SigFigNewton  The flood from the dam being destroyed would heavily effect Sudan as the floodwaters flowing down the river channel would possibly flood Khartoum, not to mention wipe out a lot of villages along the way.
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  371. I suppose Russia doesn't say negative things about USA and European spy agencies and their dealings in other countries? It shouldn't be a surprise to anyone if that happens.
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  372.  @tonywilson4713  Solid fuel is simpler in overall mechanical construction, but isn't it more difficult to get the solid fuel missiles built correctly so that it works as planned? Proper amount of propellant, and that solid propellant is installed in a certain way for burn rate, thrust, and distance?
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  373. One thing I disagree with him on is reshoring of manufacturing. Unless its hi-value-added, then most manufacturing is chasing lower labor and plant costs anywhere in the world. Maybe a few hi-end chip plants, specialty metals & plastics, and specialty metal fab and assembly, but most will still be offshore and chasing lower cost localities.
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  374. Starting out a video on European protests with ". . . originally started in France because . . . of course they did". Good stuff! 🤣🤣🤣
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  375. When you're talking about North Korea's USA missile targets don't forget Guam and Honolulu, both with military bases with easy reach of Kim & his Kronies. Also you've got to remember these two are autocrats and want to rule the world, so rather than teaming up they are possibly sizing each other up to see how easy it'll be to screw over the other guy. Also don't forget Putin's 'charm' side visit to Vietnam, where after he left the Vietnamese screwed him over by proclaiming their relations with the USA and other western alliance countries was paramount to their future.
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  376. I'm not a German and have no historical connections to Germany or any political entity before that, but I always thought the closing of the nuclear power plants in Germany for 'green' purposes (can I just call it 'greenwashing?') was lunacy by the Merkel government (and those previous to it). By Peters comments, and the comments by others here below the video, I'm glad I'm not the only one who saw that.
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  377. Historical fact: Look at the polls next week after the RNC and you'll see Trump being a few % ahead of Biden. Take a poll the week after the DNC and you'll see Biden up a few % on Trump.
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  378. You must not be in California. Here we have 'open' elections for all but the Presidential candidates. The primary list for each office is usually long and can include multiple Dems and Repubs. The top two, regardless of party affiliation, go on to the general election and the one with the most votes wins. Especially with 'open' seats it usually ends up being a Dem vs a Dem or a Repub vs a Repub in the general election.
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  379. Just avoid open flames and sparking devices when using Aquanet.
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  380. I'd almost say some rich Chinese folks bought it to get their capital out of China. They don't really care if they sell pork to Americans or Chinese consumers, they just want to preserve their wealth.
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  381. It might just be semantics and Peter's talking to a USA audience. Bankruptcy here in the USA includes a 'liquidation' bankruptcy filing for a commercial business known as Chapter 7, where the company is dissolved and all assets are transferred to creditors or sold off. 'Reorganization' of a business in bankruptcy to restart it on fresh credit in known as Chapter 11. The 'chapters' refer to the relevant parts of the Bankruptcy laws.
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  382. You have to give the Russians credit for not putting out English language propaganda and YT videos like the Chinese do. Those Chinese propaganda videos and their comments are so over-the-top silly and obvious that even a blind man can see right through them.
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  383. Wasn't Frau Merkel and her socialist party trying really hard to appease the 'green' movement pretty heavily, promoting wind and solar while demonizing nuclear power? Throw in a very rare 9.0 earthquake in a land half a world away that, unlike Germany, regularly has earthquakes (Japan) and a resulting 30 ft tidal wave, and the paranoia associated with nuke plants got blown out of proportion
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  384.  @paulzx2000  Really? Folks want to voluntarily move from the West to Russia at this time? I can see some of the crazier ones doing that, but the USA losing someone like Steven Seagal to Russia is more of a benefit than a loss.
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  385. Different theories on how to run a country. In the USA the government is subservient to the people; make a few rules and let the people develop on their own, make their own decisions, and the country grows. In China the people are subservient to the government (the CCP) who determines the direction the country will go and the people follow along. Choose your path and choose it wisely.
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  386. I wouldn't say he's risking his life by hiking on maintained trails in the Colorado backcountry (or is that the modern-day version of 'extreme'?). If he was recording while on a vertical wall while rockclimbing, then I would think it was a little on the risky side.
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  387.  @kurt1391  I think it might be in Trump's favor (not sure about 9-0), but it'll be a hollow victory for Trump because the 'Supremes' will want the determination of insurrection (and its definition) to be done in lower trial court in front of a jury of the people (the D.C. case Trump is facing in March). Get that ruling and its possible Trump could be tossed off ballots "en masse" and the DC Appeals court and Supreme Court will reject any Trump appeals from the DC Trial Court guilty outcome.
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  388. That whole kerfluffel in the White House with minerals reminded me of the accusations of the Bidens (fahter and sin) doing something similar with Ukraine and oil, only Trump is allowed to get away with a mineral/mining deal while Biden is crucified for using his presidential position of influence for something that didn't happen/was never proved to have happened.
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  389.  @celdur4635  Wrong. USA-based companies indepenently went to those countries and set up businesses, not the USA. You're projecting China's/the CCP's methods of CCP-backed business operations on to the USA.
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  390. They can put the wells in a 'dormant' state if the price goes so low its not profitable to pump, just keep the well machinery and safety devices maintained. Also realize a lot of the states/cities where extraction takes place charge an "extraction tax" on a per barrel basis so that ads to the cost of oil, and a lot of oil workers are specialized and unionized, so additional costs, too. I used to work for an EHS consulting firm that did work with a few oil companies in CA, TX, OKL, found out its not as simple as pumping it out of the ground.
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  391. Not saying none are foreign agents, but a lot of those coming to the USA see more promise here that in the places they left, and the risks they face getting here and establishing themselves are worth it to them. Some of those foreign 'military age' folks might be easily flipped when they see they can get ahead and possibly rise in economic standing vs the inability to enter the 'patriarch class' in their country of origin. And for the record: I'm for better border and immigration control, but a border wall is a waste of funds.
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  392. Great to see I'm not the only one who thought EVs were an anomaly at best. I'll stick with my ICE vehicles for now. What's with the crazy hat on Peter? A left-over costume piece from a Halloween party? A ghillie suit better suited for the summertime forest and not the winter snows?
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  393. More like a 4 or 8 year cycle. Presidential campaign rhetoric gets distributed all over the world, the allies that hear it start to question the integrity of the USA's commitment, then after the election they seek out re-assurances that we're all still on the same side as the USA. Kind of nerve wracking to say the least.
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  394.  @richardpurves  👍
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  395. Beside that its in a country, in a meeting of countries, that are trying to undermine the importance of the USA dollar's importance in world trade.
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  396. It started showing up on western media just before COVID, the COVID lockdowns in China just accelerated it. I sure hope a financial shakeout in China doesn't coincide with one here in the USA (and possibly Europe).
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  397. Not sure about the politics, but from past contacts in the industry I've heard that Saudi Arabia's oil production operations are better defended than its major cities (and it doesn't have a lot of major cities).
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  398. 'Replicator' projects making seaworthy drones, are they going to call them replicants? Or maybe Bladerudders? Wait until a group of those things goes rogue. Someone get Rick Deckert back into the force. 😉😊 The U.K. has a powerful navy? I thought they were having trouble maintaining their aircraft carriers let alone finding enough military recruits to man the entire Royal Navy fleet.
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  399. Or the government attempting to keep the focus on enemies outside the country, notably Israel and the USA. Its a popular method when you have a lot of internal problems, such as political, ethnic. or economic. Kind of a "rally-around-the-flag" situation.
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  400. I'm not competent enough to comment on semiconductors as they relate to the future of A.I., but I can assure you the surf really sucks where he is in this video, just north of Boston.
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  401. Peter drinking too much on the train? Its not about releasing gasoline between July 1 and Memorial Day, but July 1 and Labor Day (September 2). 🤔😊 The public blames the president for gasoline shortages when its the petroleum industry that runs the refineries and its the public that doesn't want any more refineries built in their neighborhoods.
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  402.  @Indrid__Cold  I was aware the USA ban or reprocessing nuclear waste was a knee-jerk reaction to the Three Mile Island plant's problems back in 1979. Reprocessing technology has come a long way since then. France, the UK, Japan, Russia, and probably more have been doing it for years.
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  403. I'd think it better to say South Korea and Israel are indirectly involved in the Ukraine war. They'll sell weapons and weapons systems to Ukraine (or allies that can do 'strawman' purchases and transfer the weapons to Ukraine), but I'd doubt they'll be sending their own troops to the UKR/RUS battle frontlines.
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  404. Most of the western world won't use Ukrainian grain as the farmers use pesticides and herbicides banned in the west, and they're not making any exceptions. Plenty of other markets for Ukrainian grain, but that involves bulk shipments through the Black Sea ports to their normal customers in the Middle East, Africa, South Asia.
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  405. I always thought Khorosan was a region in the west Afghanistan/eastern Iran/southern Central Asian Republics (the other "-stan" countries). Its that crossroads area of southern Asia that has been fought over numerous times in history but no organized group has been able to conquer or control for any significant length of time before the next battle, keeping it stuck "one step beyond the stone age". (stole that last phrase from a book title).
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  406. I wonder why he didn't mention China more in this video. They are known to have an eye on the Russian Far East for its natural resources and access to the Arctic. I'm almost sure if a dissolution were to happen that they would immediately occupy the area under the guise of 'policing it' and 'maintaining it' for law-and-order purposes temporarily (maybe a few 100 years?) while things settled out in Russia proper. Also the short mention of China being a straw man buying oil production equipment for Russia - besides refineries I'm not aware China has any oil exploration or extraction capabilities.
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  407. Like others said, Peter seems to have missed the immigration "elephant in the room" when it comes to European politics. Also might want to look at those crazy individualists on the northwest coast of the continent in the U.K. who might already be at that infection point in the cycle Peter mentions. The Conservatives can't seem to get the system moving in the right direction, inflation is rampant, immigration is a problem, so lets have an election and put the "Labor libs" in charge of the U.K. economy to crash the whole thing and they take the blame. (And the Brexit 'divorce' from continental Europe didn't help much).
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  408. FWIW: There is a H2 automobile fueling system in place here in California funded by the state government and a few of the car companies, info buried somewhere on the California state website if you search it. Toyota is the only one I know of still producing and leasing (no sales) an H2 vehicle to the public called the Murai, Hyundai and Mercedes-Benz were also moving forward but not sure where they went with their H2 projects. The Toyota Murai cars are still out there on the roads so they must be going forward with the tech, I'm thinking they went the 'ready-fire-aim' route and produced the cars before the H2 production and distribution system was sufficiently developed. Cheers.
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  409. The positive here is it may make nefarious dealing harder (money laundering, drug dealing, etc), but considering it'll be under control of the government in FEDNOW it could be easy to screw up. I'd also wonder if this 'new' system that makes things 'simpler and easier' will suddenly require charging a fee to institutional financial users to keep it up. The Fed will justify it as financial institutions were already paying fees for those multiple back-office transfers/transactions, now they just pay one fee to the Fed. And that fee will be passed on to the banking customers. I'd also hate to see paper checks disappear. I do digital and paper bill paying, I do great at keeping the paper bills paid up, the digital ones always have issues (maybe the creditors don't have adequate systems yet?).
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  410. At the end Zeihan mentioned a list of countries who would want to develop nukes if an alliance fell apart. Odd one to me is Kazakhstan; are they looking at the Russians, Chinese, or both as a threat? I've also wondered why they still let the old Soviet Cosmodrome space facilities operate on their turf - maybe a good source of revenue or bartered compensation (oil products and/or foodstuffs, or ??). Or maybe the Cosmodrome's status is good topic for another video. The other countries on the list (most in Europe and East Asia) are well known to be ready to build a nuke if the situation arises. I'm surprised he didn't take a 'pot shot' at the Saudis; they'll buy a nuke and hire staff to operate it for them so they don't have to get messy or leave their air conditioned buildings.
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  411. I think it'll go the other way. Trump had some good choices who could give him good input (good or bad) to make rational decisions, but Trump was more interested in 'yes men' loyalists who would carry out his desires. He went through a lot of senior staff in 1.0. 2.0 looks to be starting out by picking campaign and MAGA party loyalists from the start, minimal competence in their assigned areas. Its going to be interesting.
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  412. The video doesn't mention Trump's tariffs on products from Chihuahua or any other place in Mexico being affected by NAFTA, but I'm thinking that's just a bluff from 'Donnie Jesus' and he's got the media is swallowing it whole. I'm surprised PZ doesn't mention it, either as a roadblock for Trump's plans or it does allow for tariffs in some circumstances.
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  413. Unions were a lot bigger/stronger back then, so it made water transport more expensive. Somewhat similar to why railroad transport is lacking these days. Trucking regulations and unions got dropped or extensively scaled back, especially in the Reagan era, so that became the dominant way to get stuff from here to there.
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  414. Love that last part - they're going to have to ask for help . . . from Oklahoma! 🥺 Maybe its just my bad timing, but it seems like when I go there there's always a hail storm somewhere in the state that causes major damage; not a good thing if you want to consider solar plants for power generation.
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  415. It looks like Poland/ the polish people have gotten a little tired of historically being a 'punching bag' in the middle of Europe in the industrial/post-industrial world and are committed to putting up some solid defense; good for them. I like how Peter used the term "Russian space" and completely skipped over "Belarus". Quite appropriate considering how Belarus is governed (or not) these days from Minsk.
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  416. For that to happen another country would have to let their currency's value float on world markets; China won't do that, Russia can't do that, India might be able to if they can develop a more worldly financial attitude. Plenty of sovereign debt is being issued around the world, but its still based on the exchange rate with USA dollar.
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  417. I couldn't tell whether Biden was just being his goofy self (he's always had a knack for verbal gaffes) or is he showing his age, and Trump was just being his bombastic self with his own facts. I'd love to know what other folks in different countries around the world thought of it. To me its literally scary to think this is the best the USA can come up with for its executive leadership!
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  418.  @nathanielhunter1280  Kind of like how Putin is operating. Whatever settlement terms are with Ukraine Putin will still have acquired new land for Russia, so he wins (not counting all the dead 'cannon fodder' Russian soldiers).
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  419. Peter, any comments on China and the 'breakthrough' they keep advertising for a speedier smartphone chips since China has been all but banned from buying the hi-end production equipment from ASML and others? Or are the Chinese s-t-r-e-t-c-h-i-n-g the truth a bit to sell their products? I've seen stories it's a copy of a Taiwanese and/or Korean designs, nothing really new.
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  420. True. This video made me think of other down-and-out areas, and now I wonder what he thinks of Bolivia? A lot of issues there that limit the economic growth of anything besides the cocaine industry. 😟
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  421. Anybody listen to this video evolution of warfare using drones (semi-autonomous vehicles) in the Ukraine/Russia conflict and getting visions of "Skynet" getting closer to reality? Also noticed in the video all the scooters and motorbikes on the street - is that reality in Genoa? I can't envision the Terminator on a Vespa with a shotgun.
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  422.  @billmoretz8718  Biden's tariffs were limited, the 'biggie' being a 100% tariff on Chinese EVs and the batteries used in them (which pissed off Musk).
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  423. And if warp drive systems exist, where do the di-lithium crystals that power them come from? 😉 I'm both amazed and saddened that Peter is making these videos from Colorado mountain wilderness areas and the top of the state's high peaks. Amazed that the technology exists to do these geopolitical videos anywhere you want, but saddened that folks can't go out and enjoy being in the wilderness and getting 'lost' in it without the technology competing for your attention.
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  424. I was thinking China might be involved, doing it through a proxy militia like an ISIS group (even with their Muslim Uighar issues). I wouldn't put it past Beijing to want to topple the existing Russian government and grab the far-eastern part of the Russian empire.
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  425. I was thinking it was one of those planes that tow advertising banners along popular beaches during the summer months. Those things are mucho loud! But I don't think those can fly as high as Peter is hiking.
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  426. Mexico does produce some great baseball players. 😁
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  427. I'm wondering what would happen with the USA-bound ships containing all those trinkets we buy here in the USA, would China simply stop them all?. That would be quite the loss of export income to the Chinese economy, so would the CCP risk it?
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  428. Keeping track of world geopolitics has to be a heavy load (figuratively) to bare, so heavy that it literally catches up with you physically, too. I've got back spasm issues. I just need to get up slowly in the morning, sit on the bed's edge for (maybe) 30 seconds, then stand up. I also found it beneficial to just 'hang' from something for 30 seconds as it seems to take the pressure off your back muscles and s-t-r-e-t-c-h them out when a spasm pops up; I've installed a 'chin-up' bar on a wall in the garage and use it as needed, works wonderfully.
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  429. It can't be Korea, Japan would be in the way, so probably Mt. Fuji.😁 More likely the Farallon Islands off the San Francisco are coast?
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  430. Nah, then they will be a version on all those drugstore chains in the USA (Walgreens, CVS, Rite-Aid) that all overbuilt capacity in expectation of the retiring boomers spending their wealth on medical needs and pharmaceuticals. But that surge in demand never occurred. Whoops!
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  431. If Trump's first week in office is any indication. I sure hope all the foreigners/foreign leaders out there have thick-enough skins to make it through Trump's 4 year presidency (maybe 2 years depending on how the mid-term' Congressional elections go in 2026). After 'week 1' he appears to be more brutish like his political idols Putin and Xi rather than someone who tries to use diplomacy first.
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  432. Nice to see Peter do this video in the series, this is what I was thinking about from watching his last one - considering European history, how are Germany's neighbors going to feel about a German military capable of being deployed and putting up a serious fight with an opponent. Now if all the Western European (and former Soviet satellite) players can get aligned and coordinated they might have something that'll make Putin & Co. think twice about "flexing their military muscle" to intimidate the "neighborhood."
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  433. You're right. In the west its pronounced "Pooh Bear."
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  434. Typical Russian/Soviet military operation by 'copy-catting' someone else's technology no matter how simplistic it is. They were never able to develop anything that was cutting-edge and unique. They've been doing this since the Cold War got started. It was outlined in Tom Clancy's "Red October" novel, too with that submarine's design. The Chinese are said to be doing the same thing but on a broader scale as they also copy the tech of the French/British/Scandanavian military equipment manufacturers. Just look at China's fighter jet "designs" (copies) for a good example.
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  435. Not and avocado fan, not a cocaine fan, not a tequila fan, so I'm doing my best not to support those nasty hombres in the cartels.
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  436. Some Central American countries used to have a no advanced visa requirement to visit Canada, but I thought that ended a few years ago. Honduras and El Salvador, maybe even Guatemala IIRC.
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  437. Nope. Eight years as Reagan's VP then a 4-year term as president. Clinton beat him in 1992 as the economy was souring due to the end of the cold war causing reduced government (military) spending and manufacturing moving overseas with a vengence about that time
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  438. I'm considering grimsobad8445's post to be a joke, but there are a lot of drugs that are prescription-only in the USA that are available over-the-counter in Mexico and other countries. General antibiotics are ones I have bought while in Mexico.
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  439. Just the pigeons (aka 'rock doves' in my area).
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  440. I think he went over that is a recent video. They'll be the primary power player in the Indian Ocean region with their growing military, but their economic development might be hindered by their 'crushing' bureaucracy that stifles innovation. As the old saying goes "Britian created bureaucracy, India took it to the next level." They'll do what they want in the region, giving some consideration to their neighbors, unlike China who does what it wants without considering the neighbors' needs.
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  441.  @mudra5114  Sorry if that came out a little harsh, but that's why I put China in there as an example of how not to do it. China just comes in, takes over and island off someone else's coastline, or a valley in some other country's border area, then negotiates: "We'll take it off your hands so you don't have to worry about it anymore." Not sure how well India is doing these days but I'm sure they are not as belligerent as China; maybe a little more 'forward' with Pakistan, but that's to be expected with their history. Cheers
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  442. Finally, someone explains it in a simple manner that most folks can understand. A lot of Peter's explanation is why I doubt the BRICS group can affect any changes in the global reserve system and financial system at large. While those countries are basing it on gold reserves, their 'fiat' finances are typically a mess, non-transparent, and their economies are not open enough to recognize problems and make adjustments to keep valuation swings (and financial pain to their populations) to a minimum. If BRICS is to succeed it'll take at least a decade and a lot of financial "come-to-Jesus" soul searching by the participating countries to make it viable. If a more equitable reserve system were truly needed it would almost be better for the USA, E.U., U.K., and Japan to get together and set up a new reserve system.
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  443. Trump calling Zelensky a dictator? IIRC Winston Churchill claimed martial law when the United Kingdom came under attack by Hitler's forces in WWII and stayed in power longer than a British PM usually would. I guess he's not a Churchill fan either.
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  444. So we here in the USA can expect Walmart's retail operations to start shrinking and closing stores? They recently bought a Television company (Vizio) which is expected to become a moneymaker through selling 'eyeball access' and advertising through streaming services.
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  445. I was hoping PZ would give more detail of NAFTA's regulations and how that would limit the use of tariffs (if it does) between the three countries. If one of the three (the USA in this case) can unilaterally impose a tariff increase on the other two it doesn't say much for NAFTA, does it? I better buy that new car pretty soon.
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  446. Also realize its a mining operation, and an ore processing operation. Both are environmentally very dirty, destructive, and associated with lots of nasty chemicals and pollution problems. As soon as something like that gets announced the tree huggers will come out of the forests in droves driving their lithium battery powered Teslas protesting to shut it down no matter what mitigation systems are put in place.
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  447. I remember something like that in MBA school, a year-long project involving manufacturing & distribution of products. Shipping was one area of concern and involved choosing the best method vs cost vs time vs profit. We were competing with other groups so it was somewhat 'real-world'.
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  448. Just for reference purposes: A lot of old tank bodies (both USA and Soviet/Russian) were buried just below the ground surface back in the 1970s-1980s to fool that era's spy satellites and radar devices. Supplement those with non-functional (no weapons systems) tanks sitting above that could be moved around, and actual fully-functional tanks, and you'd have an impressive-looking arsenal for the enemy to ponder over. I sure hope Peter isn't including those defunct and no-weapons tanks in his numbers.
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  449. He screwed up near the end, saying Saudi Arabia when I'm sure he meant South Africa. Saudi Arabia isn't going to be a 'player' beyond oil unless the demand for frankincense and myrrh suddenly increases. South Africa has plenty of resources, but the BRICS alliance (if it lasts) might be an issue for the USA.
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  450. Wow, not even putting the British pound before the Canadian dollar. Both countries are going through some self-inflicted financial pain issues right now caused by policy decisions in their capitols so I'm guessing they are a "toss-up" as to who is more solvent.
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  451. PZ bringing the big elephant in the room to the forefront of the conversation, the one that Trump's not telling everyone - NAFTA. You have to think Trump is just "stirring-the-pot" and playing to his base once again by not mentioning it, unless he really is dumb enough to forget it exists.
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  452. It remains to be seen how good their automobiles are (longevity and longer term reliability). I have seen some mentions from Australia that they are not as good as Euro, Japanese, S. Korean, American vehicles at this time. None of their car companies have been making cars for very long (maybe 4-5 years?) and still sell mostly in China.
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  453. Unfortunately some folks in authoritive positions in that part of the world put principle over practicality.
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  454. Elon's much lauded 'Tesla roof' tiling system has been discontinued. Three times as expensive as a standard roof and only lasts from 1/2 to 2/3 as long. ROI is nil, fire departments don't like dealing with fires in a building with a Tesla roof, insurance costs go up as the tiles are fragile; hail storms can destroy one in a few minutes.
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  455. Its a country with endless possibilities in the world but they keep shooting themselves in the feet (both of them!). They did institute a form of dollarization in the mid-1990s under President Menem. In short, they had an exchange rate between their currency and the USA dollar, and the dollar was made 'legal tender'. Two different currencies so no swap needed, although it was biased to the USD. It seemed to work at that time as the financial system got stabilized, inflation and interest rates dropped. Unfortunately the Kirchners came to power and brought back hard-core Peronism ("free-stuff" and excessive social programs) to win over the Argentinian public.
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  456. A slow down in tech innovation? that'll work for me. I and my co-workers got tired of all the 'innovative tech' the management was constantly dumping on us, kind of a 'find a way to incorporate this and it'll improve our bottom line'. Just as you got comfortable using it something else would be dumped on us. Most of the time it just got in the way, we installed it but didn't use it, and we'd wait until the current stuff we were using wouldn't work anymore.
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  457.  @SarcasticEnchilada  Not sure about NZ, but the Aussies allowed in Asians (lots of Chinese) and south Asians (primarily India), but regulated the flow so those immigrants don't become wholey "ghettoize" in their own ethnic/cultural enclaves and they get integrated into Australian society.
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  458. It would be nice if PZ would do a similar video on Xi and China and their (supposed) ongoing conversion to green energy sources (they do promote it a lot, maybe just to sell panels to other countries). From what I can find they're even worse, putting solar panels and wind generators in the western part of the country while most of the power is used in the more populated eastern/near coastal area. You lose a lot of electric power trying to transmit it that far.
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  459.  @JackHawkinswrites  Yup, that's basically how it works (local government agencies are in the pipeline, too). Too many believing the Orange Jesus telling them FEMA is the sole entity for disasters, and Biden/Harris are holding back FEMA and funds.
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  460. Just bad application of economic principles by "Felon 47" (aka Trump), who should know better since he majored in economics in university. Mexico is not an enemy but an economic partner with a different culture. A lot of the manufacturing sector that Trump is targeting with tariffs consists of divisions of American companies that have moved manufacturing to Mexico, not truly Mexican companies manufacturing products. 'Felon 47' seems to be ignoring the trade agreement he set up to modify the old NAFTA agreement by sanctioning Mexico and it producers.
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  461.  @ianfromthephilippines  And the AUKUS will recommend both the Japanese and Philippines makes 'courtesy call' stops in Taiwan while traversing the western Pacific between their two countries. Good place to refuel and say 'Hi,' and maybe while there get familiar with their capabilities. Go from the 'first island chain' to the 'first island chainmail alliance' regarding China.
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  462. I like that 'dig' at the U.K.'s regulatory bureaucracy at about 8:50 : "Drowned everybody in paperwork". That is the British way of doing it. 👍👍👍
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  463. Yes, its good here in the southwest USA if you have A.C. Everyone's situation is different. I'm near enough to the coast in Southern California that I don't have AC. After changing most of the appliances in my house to natural gas, and lights in my house to lower power LEDs, I'm in the lowest cost-per-kwh category the local electric company uses for billing, and the natural gas use for cooking and heating is way cheaper than electric appliances. Its not worth it for me to install solar (or a windmill!).
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  464. I thought Obrador's main motivation was to get revenge on the leaders of the PRI that passed him over as a presidential candidate in the last few Mexican election cycles. Take away local power and money and let those local "caudillos" deal with the cartels and corruption in their areas (which just lead to more corruption).
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  465.  @meiko_kaji  Clueless,
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  466.  @KipIngram  I always thought that of the Cold War too, something like a game of "financial chicken" to see who would run out of money first. Look at national debt charts from back then and the debt skyrocketed during the Reagan years.
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  467. I'm in California, home of a few big year-round agricultural region. When I go buy groceries I notice most of the fresh fruits and veggies are from Mexico. When I buy frozen veggies the label on the bag says they are from Mexico. When I buy canned products they come from Mexico and a variety of other countries - Thailand (pineapple and other tropical fruits), Brazil/Argentina (canned meats), orange juice (Brazil & Mexico). The only category of foods I can think of that come primarily from the USA are dairy (milk, yogurt, cottage cheese, cheese). So if a lot of illegal immigrants working in ag get deported I'm not going to miss a lot of fresh foods.
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  468. You're not watching the videos all the way through, are you? There's a 'plug' on the screen at the end for the patreon channel.
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  469. I don't know that there's as much hypocrisy as you think there is. The demonization of immigrants is directed at those here illegally and their supporters, most others just want the immigration laws enforced. Heavily subsidized industries, I used to have my hand in the crude oil industry and that is far more under regulatory controls (an expense) than subsidies. The USA is the only significant global player right now, fortunately it's leaders have used that to build good relations around the world. The USA realizes friends don't have to be heavily monitored like China is finding it needs to do with its adversaries.
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  470. They do, but basic modern chips, but nothing used in hi-end/cutting edge smartphones, computers, A.I. systems, etc. And DoD chips are on a whole different level than what Peter is talking about here; not necessarily the tech inside the chips, but the chips' applications.
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  471. They have done a few small ones to Afghanistan and a few spots in the Middle East under UN command, but nothing too extensive and not in a 'hot zone.'
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  472. This video is a take on modern society - Peter in the great outdoors, but he's brining 'the office' along with him and recording videos out there. Just like those advertisements that show someone on a white sandy beach at a tropical resort but instead of looking around and enjoying the gorgeous surroundings they are intently focused on the laptop in front of them. Work in priority #1
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  473. The Repubs and the Dems are putting up candidates I don't agree with, but I'll still vote for Biden this time around. The domestic situation in the USA may be crap right now (a president really can't do a who lot about the economy), but when it comes to international policy & relations Biden is the choice; he's got so many worldwide connections from his 30 years in the Senate and as VP that he can get any disagreeing countries together. I shudder to think of what would have happened the last few years (Israel/Hamas, Russia/Ukraine, China/S.E. Asia) if Trump had been president.
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  474. I thought he already did around the time Meleni got elected. Give it 6-9 months and let's see what course Argentina is on, if it hasn't already imploded.
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  475. The USA's financials and financial markets are open and transparent to the world (including the $35T debt), that's why the USA dollar is looked at as the 'standard'. Chinese finances are considered very 'opaque', controlled, and highly 'fudged'. Example I've heard a few times is the CCP mentions national debt is only about $10T (in USD), but outside financial observers estimate that leaves out provincial debt which would take it up to about $30T (also USD).
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  476. That's what Xi uses as a diversionary tactic, the "shiny object" to deflect attention away from the problems on the mainland. IF the reports of increasing incursions into Taiwan airspace and other provocations are correct, it'll just take one J-20 fighter shot down to trigger a war, then see how long it lasts if China's military capacity is being limited by its own economic/production problems (if you've ever studied poli-sci you know wars suck up a lot of resources very quickly).
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  477. When talking about "leadership in the post-cold war era", maybe mention the rise of China as an economic force? From about 1980 to the present its built itself up as a major part of the world economy thought that may be changing with its current leadership (Xi) starting to exert a more aggressive military posture on the world stage (bluff or not, it may be a FAFO situation). Trump trying to back the USA away from the world stage is playing into both Russia's and China/Xi's hands.
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  478. What about any overseas USA operations that prevents a wider war from breaking out that could very well draw USA troops into the battle or two (or three)?
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  479. I like that joke about France, the USA, and 'cheese policy'! If the decline of Germany is in progress, and it were to pick up steam, I wonder if those looking back on European history might be getting a little nervous about where Germany is headed; recall the mid-1910s or mid-1930s anyone? Interesting comment about Mexico & NAFTA involving Spain, as I'd think the NAFTA triad might want to get Central American and South American countries bordering (and within) the Caribbean Sea involved to stem migration to the USA and thwart Chinese expansionism.
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  480. I thought they said they were looking at buying an Intel fab factory, or 'joint-venturing' by investing in one of Intel's factories to upgrade it?
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  481. In short, it can be described as a 'Circular Firing Squad', or better yet a 'Mexican Stand-Off'**. So far its staying Good, but a whole lot of Bad and Ugly is possible in the forseeable future. ** = apologies to any Mexicans reading this who are not familiar with Sergio Leone movies.
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  482. With the doom-and-gloom inherent in this video I'm thinking it might be a bunker. 😳
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  483. China will sell them the special 'water-fueled' version. 😃
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  484. I don't know where you got that (you likely made it up), but the BRICS' five main countries didn't agree to any type of common currency at their last meeting in December 2024. The most commonly used among them is the Chinese yuan (all the other countries trade with China) but there's no way China is going to let its currency 'float' nor will China open up their opaque financial system to the outside world.
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  485. Peter, you made one mistake. The Republican Convention isn't in March, its in July. You're thinking of 'Super Tuesday' a day when quite a few states have their primaries, and whoever come out of that day with the most delegates will probably be the odds-on favorite for the Republican party presidential nomination. Good take on what John Roberts and the Supreme Court should be doing, trying to get the law making responsibility back over to the legislators on Capitol Hill and not dumping problems in their lap except in odd cases.
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  486.  @oveidasinclair982  Yeah, some biggie bears up there in Canada. The ones down here are smaller black bears. Kinda timid so fairly easy to scare off, but they are sneaky buggers and can raid a campsite at night so you need something like a bear canister for food. Some backcountry camp areas have even had heavy metal bear boxes installed. Cheers
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  487. All the kids these days want to be YouTube or Tik-Tok stars (or is it influencers?).😉 Maybe Trump's/Biden's banishing of Tik- Tok might help out with skills development. Beyond that kids don't get a lot of exposure to 'trades' these days, no hands-on work as that's been eliminated from school curriculums in my area in favor of digital training and a focus on college. Another path might be the outward migration of manufacturing from China to other countries, somewhat diversifying the industrial/manufacturing industry so no one country can have as much control as China does today. That will still require the USA to have some domestic 'industrial plant' for specialty stuff (electricity generation as mentioned), but not a full-scale build-out where we try to produce everything we need. With Trump's somewhat isolationist rhetoric that might not be possible.
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  488. I'd agree with this. I'd clarify it by adding the successors are all being indoctrinated by operating within the 'hyper-unitarian' model Zeihan states, so rather than who puts their hand up first it'll be who brings their sword own first and swiftest.
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  489. I wish he would have gone a little deeper into China with more detail on the affects an oil shortage would have on them; plunge them into a severe economic slide to deep recession (or depression), and/or unleash the PLA on a few targets. Along with China he probably should have mentioned Japan, South Korea, and the other East Asia nations that are heavily dependent on Middle East oil. But maybe that's a good topic for another 10-minute video.
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  490. This is one time the 7-day lag worked well, letting the dust settle to get a clear view before describing what happened. That whole episode in Korean with Yoon's martial law declaration kind of reminded me of the Liz Truss(?) prime minister situation in the UK where she came out with a whole bunch of brutal austerity plans to reignite the economy and got the boot from her party members in Parliament. I think her leadership lasted 45 days?
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  491. You could do it quite easily with remote control devices found in hobby shops here in the USA, the limitation would be the range of signal between the drone and the control box and Russians detecting the signals. I'm not sure how the Ukrainians get around those issues especially going all the way around Crimea to the Kerch Bridge area and the Russian Naval base.
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  492. I thought about this as Russian was failing at the start of their Ukraine invasion (remember all those Russian vehicles abandoned on the road to Kiev with no fuel?). Their maintenance program seems so poor that it might be their ICBMs won't even leave the ground and the warheads simply detonate on the launch pad; Russia 'nukes' itself. To put something of a bright spot on the Russian war machine, at least their most coveted and reliable weapon (relatively speaking) is still making them money on the world arms market, the AK-47 rifle.
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  493. The flammability of crude depends on what type it is. The stuff they pump out of the ground here in Southern California has a VERY volatile component (besides methane) that will start a fire pretty quickly if it finds an ignition source. For a simple reference, the NFPA placarding for it is 3-3-2. It is heated for easier flow through transmission pipelines (it is kind of like syrup when it comes out of the ground), but in the refineries I've been in it doesn't get heated until it enters a refining process that requires the application of heat. The crude in your area of the USA or the world may vary.
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  494. Peter in California, saying he gets more environmental questions while there. Interesting that here in California there is a bill going through the state legislature that would require landlords to have air conditioning in their rentals. California may be eco-sensitive, but then they want to put AC everywhere. Sounds like Peter's definition of how Saudis live in their Saudi Arabian climate.
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  495. This 'week after' format is kind of ridiculous for current events like the port strike (which ended almost as fast as it began) and I suspect there will be one on Hurricane Milton after its been gone for a week and we already know the devastation and after-effects it caused. Better to just post videos on summaries of topics with broader timeframes, like maybe oil prices if an area-wide Middle East war breaks out or something to do with China and its neighborhood or the future of the USA after we know who the new president will be.
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  496. Thanks for the input. I wasn't aware India has passed legislation to try and reduce the influence of the caste system on society. I'll try to find out more from my workmate. I know he didn't grow up under the best of circumstances so he might have an ingrained bias towards the caste system regardless of how its being addressed in modern India. He's a really intelligent chemist, went to university in India, then transferred by his employer over here to the USA. He does go back to visit regularly. As Zeihan states India does seem to have a lot of potential for economic growth, hopefully it can be achieved to benefit all in the country. Of interest to me is the Indian space program and its progress. Cheers.
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  497. Somewhat miffed to know I'm now just a giant "sucking sound" that's a "drain on the system" by the Zeihan definition of a society's greater socio/economic order of things. 🤔
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  498. One day he's coming to us from a trail in Colorado, the next he's on a boat in the south of NZ. From all the less-than-stellar comments he's getting from Scandinavians, maybe its good he's doing this video from NZ! 🤔
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  499. Chechnyans were my first guess when I saw this on the news services. Not likely Ukranians as they just want the Russians out of their turf. Like Zeihan said there are other factions in the eastern republics who could pull this off. And considering how China has been acting towards its neighbors these days I wouldn't be surprised if they were behind it (although not directly involved so they can have deniability).
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  500. You mentioned possible attacks of Iran's oil refining facilities; do really refine the oil into useful end products? I thought they didn't do much more than dewatering and soils removal (sand/gravel/clay), then export it to whomever buys it. It kinda makes a big deal if missiles started raining down due to the chemical processes and finished products that would be stored and produced and damaged in a full-scale oil refining facility.
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  501. Did you intentionally leave Poland out of the Baltic naval assets that can make life difficult for the Russian Navy and their Kaliningrad fleet? I thought they were the one country in that region that really, really, really likes to stick it to the Russians whenever they get the opportunity.
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  502. Wasn't Kenya's recent problem about ever-increasing taxes and the people just got fed up with it? If you're not familiar with Bolivia its got a history of never-ending cycles of coup attempts. Very generally there's lots of resentment of foreign companies coming into the country due to past experiences of those companies pillaging the place of its natural resources and leaving Bolivians with nothing to show for it. This prevents a lot of modern foreign companies from investing in the country (lots of potential for natural resources extraction and production).
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  503. I'm thinking the opposite, that USA is actually VERY good, if not the best, at hacking and intelligence gathering. Its just that the USA does not want to do anything to publicize it to prevent their capabilities from becoming better known by the bad guys.
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  504. It does seem odd, but then you realize that Israel is the most technologically advanced country in that region and it starts to make sense (but I still want a better explanation, too!).
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  505.  @julianf9235  Not afraid, but NATO was formed by its member countries to protect one another. The country afraid of NATO is Russia, who invaded Ukraine after their 'puppet president' in Ukraine was defeated and the new leadership under Zelensky made overtures about joining the European Union and NATO. Russia couldn't stand having a NATO country on its border (although it's invasion created five) rather than a puppet (like Belarus) to use as a 'killing field' in the event of war with Europe. The NATO countries aren't actively participating in the war but supplying Ukraine with the weapons and supplies it needs to defend itself.
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  506. Get rid of the debacle called the Trudeau Administration's policies and it might be worth a look. Lots of energy and other natural resource potential, not sure if its worth it for manufacturing anymore due to wages.
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  507. Thanks for explaining the French political system at this time. The USA media portrays the National Rally party as something that's very well organized and a constant threat to take over the government (but it never does). The others parties I've already heard were pretty 'whack-a-doodle'. I suspect it'll all change by tomorrow.
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  508.  @DreadnoughtMonkeys-ou1dr  A 4G phone works fine for me and a lot of other folks here in the USA, why would I want to spend more money just to get the '5G' logo on my phone. China making too much of a big deal over being the leader in all tech when they could do well with basics and concentrate on only a few leading edge technologies.
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  509. All the shop classes that were in schools decades ago in my school years are gone, these days its all about college prep and the 'white collar' world. Also throw in critical thinking skills (ability?) and some economics/finance. As for 'de-digitizing' I'd love to see that as every function on every product does not need to be controlled by a semiconductor and under a subscription. Start by taking the majority of them out of cars, kitchen appliances, home function features and getting rid of internet-connected-everything, too.
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  510. I'm wondering why the worry about smaller chips and faster phones when the physical size of the phones are starting to get larger and larger with each new version. I'm still using a flip phone (4G), I've found it limits my tech usage but improves my engagement with the real world.
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  511. Well I sure don't hear about migrant people beating down the door to get into any of the BRICS countries, either the founding members or the new additions. Compare that to the border crisis's of the United States, the E.U., and the U.K. and a few other westernized countries.
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  512. So the short definition is just turn the place into a pile of rubble where nobody can live and we (Russians) can take over what's not left and live there. Brilliant.
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  513. Did you buy one of those Volkswagen cars with the 'Harliquinn' pattern paint job about 15 years ago? That's what your backpack's multicolor pattern reminds me of.
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  514.  @SnowmanTF2  True that. Japan would be like you describe for the U.K. investors. I know there are quite a few Japanese-owned office buildings here in the Los Angeles area. Cheers.
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  515. Its at the start. I didn't get his name, but he works for Peter Zeihan's organization. Looks like he got selected to be the "M.C." today while on a "work from home" assignment(?).
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  516.  @AfroGaz71  True. I was on it for about 9 months and it was very one-sided, liberal as could be with none of the counterbalancing opinions I was looking for. I run across enough of that polarization already, don't need to add Twitter to the cacophonic mix.
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  517. Trump's trying to make everyone (including the USA) go bankrupt. That's what he's done best in life, whether it be other companies or other individuals, now he's extending it to other countries around the world. Can't wait for Peter's take on yesterday's fiasco. I kind of thought that would happen as the build-up to it was more about rare-earth metals as payment for military goods for the USA rather than focusing on any level of peace between Ukraine and Russia. Putin and his cronies must have been hysterically laughing themselves silly last night.
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  518. Translation: Those 'anti-vaxxers' will be rock-solid judgmental and never be satisfied with the answers they get about the efficacy of a vaccine; unless its 100% safe and 100% effective, its no good.
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  519. That's if a conservative gets the Prime Minister's seat and a conservative government takes charge in Canada? But your second part makes total sense - Trump WILL take credit for and oil exports from Canada to Europe, whether it's Canadian oil simply transiting through a pipeline crossing the USA to be loaded onto a tanker heading for Europe with no processing in the USA, or it leaves on a tanker from a Canadian port to Europe (because Canada is the 51st state, correct?) 😉. This next 4 years in the USA is going to be wild, Canadians are welcome to enjoy the entertainment from down south.
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  520. I thought you were a little too nice to Russia when you mentioned oil extraction technology at around 2:15 - 3:00. I always thought they just refocused their Cold War strategies of stealing military tech onto oil technology and other industrial technologies through industrial espionage. If they can get it through China, even with a mark-up in price, then so be it. But why would anyone sell oil extraction tech to China at this point seeing as they don't have any significant oil fields and they are getting sanctioned for their activities toward their Asian neighbors?
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  521. I live in Los Angeles. Once the Chandler family sold the L.A. Times it went from a liberal-leaning centrist newspaper of national acclaim to solid leftie rag not fit for the bottom of a birdcage. The Wall Street Journal does have very good general news in addition to its business focus, and they do try to keep opinions on the opinion/editorial pages. Only issue with them is the editions keep getting smaller and smaller; you'd think the staff at the WSJ has gotten so small they can sit around a few dinette set tables in a basic small office space. Your initial description of where new reporting has come from is pretty accurate. With regard to ChatGPT and AI taking over news reporting, notice how many spelling and grammatical errors you see in stories these days, even though there are very sophisticated spellcheck and grammar-correcting software packages available.
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  522. Still waiting for the evidence the 2020 election wasn't fair, no one has come forward with solid evidence of any corruption or mismanagement.
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  523. He's had a couple of those, two recently about hitting an oil facility near St Petersburg and another facility near (east of?) Moscow.
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  524. Only 1% of USA-produced petro products are extracted from Federal lands? I thought it was about 10%, so I'm wondering if your number includes offshore production (anything over 3 miles offshore is Federal jurisdiction). Either way its still only a minor percentage that my more eco-focused friends don't accept as the reality. I also thought natural gas' emissions were about 25% that of the lowest polluting variety of coal, not 50%. 'Ya learn a little something new every day watching Peter's YT videos.
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  525. Laughed at Peter's comment about raising kids in a city/condo. The way my neighbors with kids keep them inside or in the small backyards when they are home is no different than raising them in a downtown condo. I guess its all the mysterious perps out there on the neighborhood streets?
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  526.  @candlelarbra5212  True, but they are sized and equipped for their local environment, and are very capable in that environment (northern Europe and the Baltic Sea).
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  527.  @zibbitybibbitybop  Don't forget the all-important wine and agricultural products! 😉 And how their relations with China evolve.
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  528. I'm not up on the financials of US Steel and why they were sold, but if it has to be I'd rather see a company like Nippon Steel, from an international partner country, rather than a Chinese company or other foreign company (maybe India's Accellor, although they might be too big to own it if US anti-trust law was to come into play). Cheers
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  529. They already have foundries in Japan, the USA, and (I believe) Europe. I'm not sure if those 'offshore' foundries can produce the cutting-edge semiconductors PZ is talking about in this video.
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  530. Salt Creek Beach in southern Laguna Beach/northern Dana Point, California (halfway between Los Angeles and San Diego). Looks like the surf sucks on the day this was filmed, and it wasn't foggy seven days ago.
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  531. Bad for the long term. Economically it would help in the short term as you ramp up the industrial output of military hardware, but they (China/CCP) still have to fund that expense and that usually involves going deep into debt to do it on top of the existing sovereign debt. To paraphrase and old saying, when you're already in a debt hole and are trying to find a way out, the first thing you do is stop digging deeper.
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  532. I thought foreign car manufacturers had been slowing and shrinking operations in China due to slowing sales and some onerous regulations put on foreign car brands to help support their own domestic car brands, even when those foreign brands and manufactured in China. I know VW has shrunk their facilities in China quite a bit, not sure about BMW or Mercedes-Benz. Honda has closed a few facilities and will be closing more, Toyota too.
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  533. In the present day its ethnically the same with similar demographics. Culturally they are ever-so-slowly drifting apart, politically they are on different sides of the universe.
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  534. The Chinese always like to promote how well they work with Africa and the success of the 'Belt & Road' on the continent, so I wonder why they didn't exploit this rail line and natural resources opportunity in SW Africa. Sure, its on the Atlantic coast, but strategically I'd think the Chinese would recognize the value of controlling that export path if it just needed to be rehabilitated. Or did they already try to do that and just piss off the Angolan leadership? Now to see how Joe and the USA can help out and possibly work out a deal.
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  535.  @eddienoragong402  It makes sense to me.
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  536. It's easy to find with a quick search on the internet. Try searching for the answer using Google, Microsoft Edge, or any other search engine. If you're using Weibo it probably has it censored.
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  537. Peter seems quite nervous in this video, like he knows the swords are going to come out from the commentators. I kind of agree with him in that I had to hold my nose while voting for president, both candidates seemed to be second rate at best and I was more interested in the local & statewide down-ballot races here in California. I did like his take at the end on Trump not lasting until 2029, I was thinking that, too. Economics played a big role in the election outcome since so many folks blame whoever is president for bad times rather than look at what really influences economic upheavals; those forces sunk Presidents Ford and Bush Sr. in my lifetime.
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  538. When I read the title of this video, then saw Peter in (what looks like) a dimly-lit 'bunker' and not the Colorado outdoors, I thought "uh oh, this does not look good!" Good analysis of the situation. I wonder if the Israeli leadership thinks the long view of house-to-house rooting out of Hamas might produce some civilized government in the area that they can work with on a normal government-to-government level (as those things are in the Middle East)?
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  539. Along with Hezbollah fighters being easy to identify as they limp around with no hand/or missing fingers, a lot of them might not have to ability to reproduce any more 'new recruits' since the pagers/walkie talkies were probably in their pockets when they went 'BOOM'.
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  540. You're going to have to look it up yourself if you want specifics. He does make a few admissions in the video that he looked at a variety of sources beyond official CCP data but they all varied from that data so some of what he says is somewhere between a 'best estimate' and a wild-a$$-guess.
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  541. Intel garnered off the interwebs/social media platforms, including phone chatter and that sort of stuff. If they have a website they are probably just posting pretty 'general' and non-specific info, and a lot of recruitment propaganda.
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  542.  @Shmidtk  Get the French nuclear contractors to do it, not Chinese.
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  543. USA wouldn't have much of a say in the matter if the British and French backed up their European neighbors. Bigger picture is what would the USA and China do, stay on the sidelines and watch as western Europe and Russia nuke each other into oblivion?
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  544. PZ forgot the xenophibic attitude of the Chinese when it comes to immigration. Not talking about Europeans or Africans, but anyone from eastern Asia who could be remotely mistaken as Chinese by a white European, including Japanese, Korean, Mongolians, anyone else (sorry if that's offensive to anyone, but its the best way I can describe it). Its just not going to change unless they can get over that mindset as well as the birthrate/marriage situation.
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  545. Or just claim it as your own like Putin and Xi have done, move your forces into the area, and tell the locals to f**k off if they complain.
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  546. Tucker has always been something I'd watch for entertainment value, not actual news. His 'schtick' is commentary & political opinion at best, his services are available to the highest bidder. There are plenty of other propagandists on YouTube if you want to be in a Chinese or Russian 'echo chamber' telling you how wonderful each of those countries are and how their economies are outperforming the west. I'll take a pass on Mr. Carlson.
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  547. Added to the Russian situation: Maybe if this importation of military parts and supplies keeps going it'll become a standardized civilian supply chain model after the war? A real reason for BRICS to exist? Maybe the birth of a new Russian term known as "quality made in Russia"? The Patreon/subscription model. Nah, I'm tapped out on subscriptions to everything, nickel-and-dimed to death. If its a week delay I'll be OK with it or I might just disappear from your viewership like a young Russian male eligible for military conscription.
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  548. I'd bet its a piece of 'fluff' either from clothing or natural, in the sight path of the camera. Or its a PLA sleeper-cell sniper activated by Bejing to silence his musings on China's economic/political collapse.
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  549. As Peter mentioned in the video, its the nationalistic and altruistic nature of Mexico not wanting to let any big nation, especially the 'big brother' from the north, come in and help out as it assumes the outsider will take it over. Unless that attitude changes and the corruption throughout Pemex (the national oil company) ends they'll just have the shallow well fields they have now and run those until they are dry. That's the way Mexico has operated since the day of the revolution when it overthrew the Spanish colonizers, and its helped many a national politician win elections. If they could get past that attitude and just bring in some outsiders to advise and help out with the specialized skill sets to improve areas of the economy like oil production it would be one of the most prosperous countries on Earth.
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  550. I thought they were putting a priority on building nuclear power plants to satisfy their growing electricity demand, did that get program get pushed aside for other, newer priorities?
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  551. He has made the distinction between the old West Germany and East Germany, but not so much the others. Another exception might be separating Poland out from the other Soviet "satellite' states as its clashed with the EU on a number of policies such as immigration and defense spending.
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  552.  @rasfarengi  I'm a boomer, I wish my money had come from an inheritance so I would not have had to work for it.
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  553. Is that 'per capita GDP' with or without the oil revenue that the average Lybian probably didn't get much benefit from?
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  554. Brazil was also exporting a lot of steel to the USA in the 2000s. That was during the Bush presidency, when he was being asked to put tariffs on imported steel. He eventually sided with not doing it because there were more jobs at stake (voters, union voters too) in the 'upstream' offloading, handling and distribution of that imported steel than there would have been in making that steel at a USA plant.
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  555. So by the title of this video, and what you're saying in it, if this was a USA television show called "The B-Team" it would make the original 1980s "The A-Team" show look like a television masterpiece? 😃😃 Your description of Trump and his cabinet choices sounds like how you describe Xi Jinping and his relationship to the senior leadership of the CCP, which doesn't give me a lot of comfortable vibes. 😲😲☹ Back to the Bette Davis line "Fasten your seatbelts, its going to be a bumpy ride" (paraphrased, of course).
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  556. He did mention those. They're insured by Russian/Chinese/Indian insurance companies, and it remains to be seen what happens if one of those ships has a major problem, like a Russian oil tanker leaks crude oil while its on route to a destination. And remember most cargo comes from nation A, is being shipped to nation B, on a ship owned/operated by a company in nation C, and staffed with a crew from nation D, all insured by a company in nation E.
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  557. So Russian people are live Bolivians in the 1990s. There seemed to be a coupe happening every few years in LaPaz, the folks around the city would stop for a moment to watch the military vehicles roll by, shrug their shoulders, then just get back to their daily business of living/working like they always did.
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  558.  @Heldarion  The way I've seen it written in historical reference was the Carter team bluntly told the Iranians if the USA hostages were not released before Reagan's inauguration day they would have to start negotiations all over again from the beginning with a Reagan team.
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  559. Which one, the 'Old, Slow' guy, or the 'Orange Man'? Both of them have a lifetime of 'baggage' they're dragging with them.
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  560. I wonder if he misspoke and wanted to mention Southern Africa and not just South Africa. A good portion of southern Africa centered around Zimbabwe (formerly Rhodesia) was highly productive and exported food to other areas of Africa and the world. Its good that apartheid collapsed in those countries, but it also collapsed the agricultural industries as farms changed from white to black ownership with no transfer of knowldge on how to farm in those areas (soils, climate, etc). You might look at the area as having changed from a breadbasket to a basket case. All the imports of fuel and fertilizer aren't going to help unless the political situation changes.
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  561. I take it from the last 15-20 seconds of this video that Peter Zeihan is not a fan of the Russian Navy, or Russia and its geopolitical muckraking in general.
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  562. China doesn't raise dictators, it wants to be the dictator. Chinese just unilaterally take over the South Asia Sea, disregarding all borders established in previous agreements, attack Philippine Naval vessels in the Philippines' own waters and islands, tells Malaysia and Vietnam to get away from Islands they have rightfully occupied for decades in their coastal waters. Meanwhile China builds a never-ending string of warships that are for nothing other than taking over other lands.
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  563. No 'love' for the corridors between Mexico and Arizona/California? Huge commercial truck crossing points that lead to Interstate, 5, 10 and 15. Or does Peter consider those crossing just important for illegal drug shipments?
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  564. I thought they allowed 'triples' on the roadways there, am I wrong? I was under the impression a lot of states in the Midwest did triples for better ROI when shipping loads of bulk products. We don't have that in California, even in the Central Valley ag areas, and even though you can get a cert on your driver's license to haul 3 at a time. Whacky world out here.
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  565. I always thought it was a combination of both. The stimulus checks weren't all that much in the larger picture (except the federal deficit, of course!), but lots of 'spot' supply shortages (different foods on the shelves in my area at different times), and the biggest, hi-profile example of shortages was automotive where the dealers could charge customers outlandish marked-up prices. I didn't consider fuel prices in inflation as those can vary wildly throughout the year in normal times. Its more of a 'market forces' thing rather than anything the government can control whether a Dem or Repub is in the White House or which party controls Congress. Cheers.
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  566. I'd rather annex Mexico, Better surfing, better fruits and veggies, and tequila.
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  567.  @mysterywalker1621  I thought Russia built a pretty stout fence along most of their border with Finland when the NATO application was being processed. Not a wall, but a good, sturdy fence with ultra-thick chain-link (or similar) and plenty of barbed wire on top. Enough to keep foot soldiers at bay and be a nuisance for light vehicles, but not Russian tanks (if they have any left!).
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  568. So if Trump were to lift all the sanctions on Russia today it really wouldn't matter in the grand scheme of things. Oil's trading at just under $70/barrel, not much more than the $60/barrel imposed by USA sanctions.
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  569.  @MD97531  That's why China keeps pissing off its neighbors with belligerence and bullying tactics? Don't expect any of those neighbors to be anything more than indifferent to China's suffering if a war breaks out.
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  570. Great Information. With regard to the 'sweet' crude coming from the Kazakh portion of the Caspian Sea fields - couldn't the Saudis supply that (if they wanted to cheat on the agreed OPEC volumes)? A lot closer to than the USA shale products for Europe. All the OPEC nations seem to cheat relentlessly and have numerous excuses for doing it when the practice is exposed, and Saudi Arabia makes a few extra $$$ in the process. I know the rail lines could be problematic (differing gauges), but couldn't Ukraine's neighbors to the west & southwest help out with grain shipments? With both Russian and Ukrainian shipments by sea cut off and the possibility of severe food shortages in Africa/Middle East/Southern Asia, it would seem like a viable option (providing Turkey would allow the shipments through the Bosphorous Strait, most likely claiming 'humanitarian need').
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  571. Actually we've had global trade for quite a while; remember the Bristish Empire and its world-wide trading system? The French, Portuguese, and Dutch had similar worldwide systems, and there were some regional systems (S.S. Asia and East Africa with the Middle East come to mind), and all inter-traded with the others on occasion. You probably mean a literal system of information flow that can occur almost instantaneously due to semiconductors and the world-wide web, and 'specialization' in what each country can do and do at a lower cost/better quality outcome than others.
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  572. Note to self: Add sunscreen to my weekend shopping list. Jumbo size container. From this video the developed countries with their shrinking populations will eliminate carbon sources (fossil fuels, etc) as their energy sources, but the poorer countries with population growth will continue to use carbon-based fuels (fossil fuels and wood, etc) for energy sources. That doesn't sound like anything is being achieved, just the source of global warming gases is changing. We'll leave China out of this since they want to play both sides of the economics game to their advantage.
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  573. I don't think its so much 'opening its doors to illegal unskilled labor' so much as it is no real penalty for a business owner when they hire illegal laborers to do the work, either through false verification or no verification of work eligibility status. And with illegal labor there is also informal networks; an illegal laborer who finds out his employer needs more help can contact his relative in another country, if that relative can make it into the USA he has a job. With regard to the legal immigration process (by H1B and other immigration statuses), its a 'legal' judicial-driven process that's tough, extensive, time-consuming process to go through, and the process evolves a little year-to-year depending on the whims of Washington DC. My parents went though it in the early 1960s and (from the documents they collected) it was a very extensive and time-consuming process not much different from stories I've heard from more recent immigrants.
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  574. For clarity, 'AFFF is Aqueous Fire Fighting Foam, its blended with water at a 5%-10%, so its primarily water, not a dry chemical. When used it looks like a thick, foamy soap sitting on top of the water/petro. Great on certain oil/petroleum processes to cover the solution with a blanket of foam to cut off oxygen to the fire. Its also used in automatic fire fighting systems on tanks to try and stop the fire when it first starts, on vehicle fires, other similar situations.
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  575. That video a week or two ago in the NZ outhouse was pretty "relaxed."
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  576. Touche!
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  577. I thought there were still quite a few USA forces spread out in the Middle east - Kuwait, Bahrain (or is it Qatar?), and a few in U.A.E. within quick-strike distance of the Strait of Hormuz and Yemen. That kind of covers the area quite well with Israel on the northern flank (indirectly) ready to deal with any hanky-panky from Syria or other rabble-rousers in their immediate area. SA has been gettiing 'chummy' with Xi and his lackeys, lets see how that works out for them.
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  578. I know the politics might be getting in the way these days, but any coal being exported to China, or are they still self-sufficient for the present? I know they publicize their newer 'green' solar and nuclear plants, but up until the modern day (and probably still ongoing) they were producing power from vast reserves of domestic coal and the CCP didn't/doesn't mind that the domestic stuff they were mining and burning was the dirtier bituminous variety.
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  579. annekepannekoe, you might want to watch the full video before making comments like that that make you look like a donkey's backside. Zeihan did express his views on Obama and Biden in the video.
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  580. Its a guessing game, a form of gambling. You just have to guess right more often that guessing wrong.
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  581. The best quip I've heard about it was its being renamed for the USA market: Open-CCP, Chat-CCP, Deepfake, Chat-FU2, Deep-Xi, Tik-Tok-BOOM!, Chat-PLA, etc.
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  582. Whew! I saw the video title and thought it was bad bratwurst and beer! Glad to see its just a problem with natural gas supplies.
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  583. At 5:00 PZ's take on if the nuclear bombs still work: "The only way to know is to get involved in a broad-scale international, intercontinental nuclear exchange, that is a test we really don't want to do." That's putting it politely!
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  584. That's as good as any explanation as to why a trailing-edge boomer like me could never get into management. That and the latest management fad of DEI promoting those on their different gender identification, racial make-up, and ability to make cool charts/graphs/animated presentations with no knowledge of the industry. Happily retired. I need a long walk on a New Zealand beach.
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  585.  @Withnail1969  The Bearing Straight is quite a bit wider than 12 miles (about 50 miles). Just stay to the east of the Diomede islands in the middle of it and you're OK (one owned by Russia, the other by the USA).
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  586. I was looking at some conservative talking head sites this morning and a lot of crazy theories are being accepted as fact by the 'disciples', but all wrong. Yes, Trump was afforded 'due process', yes the trial did follow NY state court procedures, yes, Trump and attorneys did know the charges when the case was filed, yes Trump did have the opportunity to testify and put up a defense, no it was not a Democratic conspiracy against Trump.
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  587. And it sounds like he's in a cave!
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