Comments by "John Walsh" (@johnwalsh4857) on "Pyotr Kurzin | Geopolitics" channel.

yes with open windows too
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Next up Georgia, wonder what Russia does if Georgia does Euromaidan 2.0.....the Russian North Caucasus military district which fronts Georgia is currently in a very weak state, and manned by skeleton crews of Russians troops probably a divisions worth. of troops. as most of its usual deployments were sent to Ukraine. Heck many South Ossetian and Abhkazian seperatist troops were sent and died in Ukraine, one example are South Ossetian troops of the 4th guards military base 1200 were sent to Ukraine in mid 2022, supposedly only 300 came back alive. who essentially deserted their posts and illegally went back to South Ossetia.
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yes int he meeting, with JD vance and Zelensky, Kellogg looked sad.
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Ive heard rumors of large contingents of soi called elite Syrian troops being sent to Ukraine back in late 2022, and I also heard these units incurred heavy losses in Ukraine. as they were used as cannon fodder. basically masquerading as Russian troops. and this is one of the reasons why the Syrian army is weak at this point fighting the rebels. and also some of their units are still in Ukraine. fighting for the Russian army. this left the Syrian army crewed mostly with Sunni units with questionable loyalty.
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@martstam2016 so does invading Ukraine, make 0 sense. Russian bots also make O sense
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the USD to Ruble rates are bogus. In reality , the Moscow black market rate is 400 Rubles to 1 USD if you buy USD with rubles. however its 1 USD = 50 rubles if you sell your USD to buy rubles. haha very amsuing rates, here in Vancouver Canada its to sell your rubles to CAD , its 131 rubles to 1 CAD, official exchange rate is 1 CAD = 64 rubles haha very amusing.
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im not surprised if Putin is thinking of Zelensky obsessively everyday, like he has a Zelensky fetish.
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As how long the Assad gov has left....supposedly Assad and his family is being housed at the Four Season hotel in Moscow and the guy in charge of Syria is Assad's brother who is currently holed up in Damascus with what is left of the Shiite loyal units of the Syrian army. Those guys fear being captured by the Sunni rebels as gruesome torture awaits them and their loved ones. There is also a stream of Syrian shiites running to Lebanon now. composed of women and children of Syrian Shiites. the Russians and Iranians have run away now .
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my view on why Putin invaded Ukraine , well Putin already had a disposition of hating the Zelensky gov and always looked to Ukraine as younger brother to Russia, and a combination of cabin fever from isolation from Covid, the medication he is getting from his supposed illnesses plus covid medication, also from the erroneous info he is being given by his advisors on the Ukrainians along with his view that he would like to leave a legacy comparable to Peter the great and he feels he is not long for the world and would like to make the conquest of Ukraine a centerpiece of his legacy. Probably Putin was told by his advisors that the Ukrainian army was so shit and the Ukrainian people support Russia that he would conquer Ukraine in 3 days to 3 weeks......LOL.....now the war is now on its 3rd year and a bloody stalemate with 550K Russian casualties and the Russians controlling roughly 20 percent of Ukraine. and 80 percent of the Russian army trying to defeat Ukraine.
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disappears hahaha, yah probably trying to get out of his problems by isolating himself. very amsuing the Russians.
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I remember that Russian test launch of the Satan II aka sarmat missle blowing up in its launch pad and that was supposed to be top of the line Russian ICBMs, Im not surprised if 80 percent of Russian nukes dont work. That is why the Russians are really afraid of the USA and NATO , Russians know most of their nukes dont work and a ww3 with USA and NATO will be a catastrophe, whether its conventional or a nuke war.
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Russian military prestige is down the toilet. it is shite. while Ukraine has proven itself probably the best military in Europe. like Russia has 10X the economy, the military firepower and 5X the populaiton when compared to Ukraine, and land size, Ukraine is a midget compared to a massive Russian geography , in all accounts, Russia should have won already, within a year. heck they planned to win in 3 days LOL. yet 3 years later, 800K Russian casualties, Russia controls only 20 percent of Ukraine or an area the size of Pennsylvania , heck its so bad, the Ukrainians invaded Russia and took an area in Kursk Russia the size of Los Angeles and 5 months later they still hold it despite massive ferocious Russian attacks, and the Russians suffered mearly 40K casualties, heck its so bad the Russians had to beg the North Koreans to help repel the Ukrainians hahahahah. and the Ukrainians are bombing Russia with drones and missles and destroying Russian oil refiniries, airfields , ammo depots. if someone told me on Feb 2022, that in 2024 the Ukrainians would be bombing Russia with impunity Id say you were crazy but hey here we are, hahhahah. RUSSIA IS LOSING THE WAR.
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@martstam2016 lame lame lame more denials no wonder Russia is losing this war hahah
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@martstam2016 really more like Georgia and Armenia will go to Europe and Azerbaijan will go to Turkey. sorry your view of geopolitics is quite amusing , however my view Turkey will probably carve out the Russian caucasus for their sphere ot influence during a future Russian civil war, however their control of the Caucasus will be disputed by the EU. with Georgia and ARmenia probalby going to teh EU. Also Turkey will probably go deep into Russian central Asia.
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@martstam2016 sorry whatever, you have your opnions I have mine,
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I find it quite amusing Russian bots attacking me for my post on Syrian troops in Ukraine, so IT MUCH BE TRUE hahaahah. Russian propoganist orks as so amusing.
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yah Ive heard of a war between the head of the central bank elvira and the head of Rostec Chemezov, over the high 21 percent interest rate, Chemezov who is a close friend of Putin back in the KGB days won out, vs. Elvira and that is why the Russians have stopped raising the interest rate and you saw the Russian ruble going down vs. the USD> Chemezov says the high interest rate is hurting Rostec profits heavilly and Rostec is practically most of the Russian military industrial complex. So yah good thing Putin is mismanaging his own economy better for Ukraine, as Napoleon said, Never interrupt your opponent when he is making a mistake.
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without Putin, my view Russia goes back to the 90s but this time its worse as the oligarchs control the Russian gov and economy backed up by their PMCs. The Russian mlitary is heavilly discredited and is a shell of its former self and is a joke, the real Russian military are the oligarch PMCs. The Russian oligarchs cooperate to keep things stable so all of them can profit and they can exploit the Russian economy and resources. The USA and China supports the oligarchs and plays a great game of influence among them. The Russian gov are made up of puppats of hte oligarchs and is extremely corrupt. Russian economy is in permanent recession with hyperinflation so much so that the Russians do not accept the Russian ruble but the USA Euro and even gold and Crypto. Russia becomes a massive failed narco state where criminal foreign and domesitc take advantage of a weak divided corrupt Russian gov and military by setting up base in Russia and use Russia as a smuggling hub of drugs and military grade weapons into Europe as well as manufacture and processing of illicit narotics and weapons . as well as human trafficking. vey high crime rates and unemployment and a depressed econmy prompt millions of Russians to run to Europe and elsewhere.
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why??? cause Trump and Musk has been bought and paid for by Putin so is the entire rep party. with the cherry on top being blackmail on Trump. so bad, that Trump would backstab US allies in order to follow Putin's commands. which is to cut off all aid to Ukraine, so Putin can get out of the war with his regime intact. with a soft post war landing. which can only be achieved if all sanctions are lifted and relations with teh USA normalized.
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however either way whether a civil war happens or not. I think the new Post Putin Russia will have a weak Russian Moscow gov and Russian military being controlled by Oligarchs and their PMCs, the Russian federation will be a Russian confederation where Russian provinces and republics have a lot more autonomy functioning practically as independent countries paying lip service to being part of the Russian fedeation , these Russian provinces and republics will have their own militias, Russian PMCs and Militias will be the real Russian military in a post putin Russia. with Russia becoming a great game of influence between China and USA. I think even the Russian federation may fracture within a decade gradually after the war is over with new countries being formed int he Caucasus and East of the Urals.
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well the Russian army has proved itself not a world class army but a third world third rate regional army that like to pretend its a first class. army.
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I think overall Russia will keep together however it will be like the 90s where the oligarchs control the economy and crime was out of control , this time no Russian army to keep a lid on things and control the oligarchs since after this war is over the Russian army and gov will be discredited and many veterans will be recruited by the PMCs controlled by Russian oligarchs , the oligarchs will not war with each other but more or less cooperate. in Running the country, Russian gov will be a puppet gov ineffectual corrupt but controlled by the oligarchs who will never allow a Putin to come to power again. what results is a Russia where you have a very weak corrupt gov and a weak laughable armed forces. with teh oligarchs and their PMCs really in control. very weak central control , means the Russian provinces get to do their own thing, and they are almost autnomous having their own militias to police themselves. These provinces will probably have so much autonomy that they are like independent countries but still swear fealty to Moscow. Moscow will still be the capital of the RUssian fed and the center of finance, where the various factions in Russia meet make money make deals. St. Petersburg will still be the cultural capital of Russia but lose importance . and in the background the oligarchs and their corporations will make deals with everyone else.
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also Russia will be the great game of the 21st century between USA and CHina along with other smaller actors. a political great game to influence the various political factions within the new post Putin Russian fed. for its resources and geographic importance.
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well if you say back foot, Russia from Jan 1 2024 to Jan 1 2025 has taken an area of Ukraine the size of Luxembourg while suffering 400K casualties, and the Ukrainians have not collapsed, menawhile the Russians are buying lots of arty ammo and missles from NOrth Korea and 60 percent of Russian arty ammo and 30 percent of their missles come from North Korea and Kursk 5 months already and the Russians have not kicked out the Ukrainians suffering 40K casualties and begged the North koreans for help. ..along with the Ukrainains drone bombing Russian oil refiniries, ammo dumps etc. with the Russian air defenses not being able to do anything about it speaks volumes,,,,,,yah the Russians gained ground still controlling 20 percent of Ukraine while suffering all that, yep I can say Russia is sort of in a back foot.
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@mikeg.9008 how about these rumors being true as confirmed by russian bots.
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@archmage_of_the_aether dude Russian propoganda bots get paid by rumor please stop spreading rumors for Putin ahahahah
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@maritaschweizer1117 sorry more Russian bot logic
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and the rumor is the commander of the Russian forces in Syria ex General Sergei Kisel not only was removed but also arrested hahahaha, an incompetent commander of the Russian 1st guards tank army during the Feb to March 2022 invasion of Ukraine removed for not being able to take Kharkiv and getting his unit thrashed hard while trying to do so due to his corruption and incompetency hahaah. yah this is the same 1st Guards tank army that got beaten the crap out of it during the late 2022 Ukrainian counteroffensive and had to spend most of 2023 being reformed and refitted hhaha. then this incompetent was put in Syria to command the Russian forces there hahaahah, Ive heard rumors he was stealing funds for the Russian military there too hahahhah so he is probably in the same prison as Surovikin who was also rumored to be arrested hahahah...the Russian miltary is so amusing.
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@theglobalgambit yes that guy was an incompetent in Russia, and an incompetent in Syria corrupt stole a lot of the funds for the Russian army in Syria.
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what can putin do, maybe start showing compromising photos of trump with Russian hookers, or how about showing more naked photos of melania , more Putin bluster, please do all that , so Trump gets so pissed off he gives Ukraine everything it wants.
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Putin doesnt care about Russia's future, he just cares about his future, which after he is gone will be shit along with Russia's future, everything will be blamed on Putin, after he is gone. and his pals will all claim to be victims. Putin will not survive this war. he is already a marked man and after Kamala wins this year. THe Russian elites will be sharpening their knives to get Putin gone.
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I predict after this war is over, Russia will be so humiliated by its defeat that it will go into several years of chaos soul searching, renovation before a new country emerges.
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X is crawling with Russian bots. yep when this war is over, I think Elon is going to lose a lot of his net worth. when his Russian investors liquidate all the stocks in their company. DISASTER. Ive heard at least 50 percent of his investors in X and Tesla are from the Russians. that is why Elon has been talking to Putin a lot lately, since Elon Thiel and other billionaires have been used by the Russians as a funnel of money to Trump to the tune of what I heard billions of USD. yes that is why Trump bragged about getting 35 million USD per month from Elon a few months back. This money is distributed among his supporters in hte Rep party, that is why he got nominated, all that billions of USD in Russian money to ensure Trump wins the election is too sweet for the corrupt politicos of the Rep party, heck some of the money even goes to the USA far lefties like the USA green party etc so it weakens the demo party. If Kamala wins the elections, the Russians will much lessen giving money to USA politicos or even stop it and liquidate the stocks they own in Elon's companies, imagine a run on his stocks, that would ruin Elon Musk.
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now my projection of what will happen ahead after this war is over. I still think Putin will probably die shortly after the war is over. and there will be a power struggle. I think if Russia loses the war, Putin will be gone sooner, and less damage on teh Russian economy and the new gov who withdraws from ukraien will be supported by the USA and EU so will have a solid hold on power and economy. HOwever if Russia wins the war, while Putin consoldiates on his power, the economy will get worse. no USA aid to prop up the Russian economy. and when Putin dies he has no heir and there will be a bloody power struggle which becomes a civil war. possibly 5-10 years after the Ukraine war is over. So I posit a Russian defeat in the war is better than the Russians winning it.
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the exiled opposition will become the new puppets of the Russian oligarchs who will control Russia after Putin is gone. they will be quite ineffectual and serve to be the nice acceptable face of the Russian gov. post putin.
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my view is that the USA wants the Russian economy and military to be sufficiently weakened. so much that it will not be a threat in the future, its almost reaching to that point, also USA does not want Russia to implode in civil war. but wants Putin gone.
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well Ive been saying since 2022, the USA elections of 2024 will determine the final outcome of this war, in my opinion, if Kamala wins esp if the dems sweep the house and senate, well, this will be the beginning of the end for the Russian war in Ukraine, Russia's economy cannot take 4 more years of war, esp. from what I hear Kamala and her advisory team which will be totally new as she will fire most if not all of Bidens national advisory team and kamala and her team are even more pro Ukraine hawks than Biden and his team. Kamala wants to finish the war in her first term and will probably lift all restrictions on Ukrainian use of USA weapons on Russian soil, massive uptick in US aid to Ukraine, and the western artillery ammo production will be reaching Russian parity by 2025. Not surprised if South Korea becomes a major arms supplier to Ukraine going through USA and Poland to ship weapons and ammo to Ukraine esp. artillery ammo and jets(the South Korean FA-50 which is a very good multi role South Korean combat aircraft and cheapo too). Maybe even Swedish Gripens can be supplied to the Ukrainians in 2025 and the French Mirage 2000 is coming too in early 2025. 2025 will be annus Horribilis for the Russians, and 2025 will also be a pivotal year for the war in Ukraine which I think will see possible pivotal battles like the upcoming Pokrovsk battle which might tip the war to Ukraine's favour . I think in this scenario war ends a Putin's removal from power by Russian elites as the Russians cut their losses to preserve as much of their economy and military , as the Russian economy starts coming apart by 2026 and the new regime now does serious negotiations to end the war on Ukraine's terms. Possibly a Russian defeat at Pokrovsk or some major battle is the cassus belli to have Putin removed. The resulting negotiations will probably result in the Russians withdrawing back to Russia including Crimea, in return the west lifts all sanctions on Russia, unfreezes all Russian assets in the west normalizes relations with the west, and a formal peace treaty with Ukraine recognizing the 90s borders. Also to sweeten the deal and to keep the Russian economy stable, some economic aid to Russia from the USA. Ukraine will win the war with a much weakened Russia economically and militarilly that is turning inward to stabilize its economy and politics. and stabilize law and order. Russia wont be a threat to its neighbours for a few to several decades.
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the Russian people have always been passive . and after this war is over millions of them will run away from Russia, for a new Russian diaspora bigger than the 90s.
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I think with the current developments, the peace deal will fall apart and a pissed off Donald Trump threatens tariffs on anyone who supports Ukraine and withdraw from NATO. the rest of NATO defies trump and continues to support Ukraine and Trump tariffs the defiant nations. this causes the rest of NATO to move closer notably Germany, UK France and Canada get closer, increase their weapons production in retal the EU gives the frozen Russian assets all 300 bilion USD to Ukraine to continue the war effort while the rest of NATO increases arms production significantly and rearms .
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now as a counterpoint, if Trump wins the elections esp. if the reps sweep the house and senate, well Trump will cut off all aid to Ukraine. The Russians will take all of the Donbass in 2025 and achieve operational success in the battlefield, as Ukrainian morale collapses. I think war will end in 2026 with negotiations, with Russia having the upper hand. Ukraine gives up all rights to the Donbass and Crimea and in return a peace treaty is put forward which recognizes borders at the current line. Also Ukraine remains neutral, the Zelensky gov falls. replaced by a new neutralist gov. . All sanctions on Russia are lifted by the USA under Trump but the EU still maintains sanctions on Russia. Ukraine does not join the EU and or NATO. USA and EU however give a lot of rebuild aid to Ukraine with Trump favouring his friends companies to rebuild Ukraine. UK , Germany other NATO countries and France help in rebuilding the Ukrainian military. Meanwhile the Russian economy is in shambles despite the lifting of the major sanctions. its military in shambles however the Putin regime survives. Putin rebuilds his economy and military but Russia is not in a position to threaten its neighbours probably in the next decade.
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lukashenko is mussolini to Putin's hitler, lukashenko may end up on the wrong end of a meat hook upside down before Putin
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Mearshimer is a fraud
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I think the war hinges on who wins the USA elections in 2024 who controls senate congress and white house if Kamala wins and the dems gain control of the senate and congress its GOOD NIGHT IRENE for the Russians in Ukraine.
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I think what the west wants is Putin gone and a more reasonable leader taking over and a soft landing for the regime.
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I dont think Russia will totally break up but I think a part of the Russian fed will probably break up into seperate nations esp. in the Caucasus and east of the Urals. and that will happen when Russia loses the Ukraine war. Also Russia will experience a decade or two of the time of troubles 2.0 not a civil war but something like the 90s on steroids, very high crime rates, ineffectual Russian gov and law enforcement, lots of PMCs running around, Oligarchs controlling the economy run amuck. no central control. no Putin to control them. and the PMCs are stronger than the Russian army which will become a shadow of its former self.
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Yep highly agree with Jason here, and as an extra I think Biden winning the 2024 USA elections will cause a massive political tsunami in the Kremlin and among Russian elites , basically Russian elites will surmise that the Russian economy cannot support the war for 4 more years and want to salvage it and with Putin in the way, they will get rid of him as soon as possible. and blame everything on him. In this scenario I think Putin gets removed from power in 2025 , probably something gets announced that he dies of natural causes. His successor blames everything on him, after a few months of negotiations. Russia withdraws from Ukraine and Crimea. in exchange for 1. lifting of all sanctions. 2. Unfreezing of all Russian assets in western banks. 3. no ICC arrest warrants for Russian leaders. 4. Normalized relations with the west. 5. formal peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine recognizing borders. in the aftermath of the war, the new post Putin Moscow gov will be unstable. as despite assistance from both the west and China, to keep the Russian economy stable. there is a massive tide of political and social instability due to the defeat in the war, also the fact that foreign investors are staying away from Russia due to instability. Despite Moscow's attempts at economic stability, Russia undergoes hyperinflation and there is high prices of essential as well as very high unemployment which leads to social unrest. also returning Russian veterans of the war leads to high crime rates . Russian PMCs become the real Russian military and security forces as teh Russian and police forces are seen to be as a joke due to high levels of uncontrolled corruption and desertions, and the Russian PMCs provide a source, a center of security stability as they are very organized, very effective at what they do backed up by Russian oligarch money. With a weak Moscow gov with weak military and police, Russian oligarchs run the show and its back to the 90s again. with the oligarchs manipulating Russian politicos as puppets as the Russian PMCs are practically the Russian military and police and the Russian economy is very much controlled by the oligarchs. While the Russian oligarchs are united in not allowing another Putin come to power again and prevent too much political and economic instability and create an environment of all of them making money, they are pretty much at odds with each other in terms of politics and how to run Russia which results in the country for a period of time experiencing the 90s all over again but a 90s on steroids. as political indecision grips the nation. I can see a number of Russian regions break away from Russia to form their own country like Chechnya and possibly even Dagestan but I think 90 percent of Russia will remain intact but Russian provinces will have more autonomy from the weak Moscow gov. and the Russian corporations backed by their PMCs will be a power unto themselves. I dont think they will engage in all out wars, but will be engaging in political economic battles and some turf wars but I think the Oligarchs will probably be cooperating with each other more or less. Meanwhile Ukraine gets trillions of USD of funding for reconstruction which booms the economy , shortly after the war is over Ukraine gets accepted into the EU and NATO. Pro Russia govs are kicked out in Belarus and Georgia, Moldova , Belarus , Georgia and Armenia begin serious application to NATO and the EU. within a decade Moldova and Georgia get accepted into NATO and EU. Armenia gets accepted into the EU. All of these are done without comment from Russia.
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I think that with a Kamala harris win and the dems sweeping the house and senate, USA will massively increase aid to Ukraine and removing all restrictions on the use of USA weapons in Ukraine, done to finally solve the Russia Putin problem and payback for Russian interference in the 2024 elections. which the Russians probably pumped billions of USD into the Trump campaign via Musk and his buddies. I think a kamala harris win will cause a political tsunami in Russia and Putin's leadership will be called into question openly by Russian elites, Putin wil probably redouble his efforts to win the war in Ukraine by significantly increasing his offensives esp. in the Donbass area where he wants to take over the entire donbass as a minimum pre requisite for peace negotiations with the Ukrainians. if the Russians suffer a major defeat in 2025 , this might prompt his removal from power. if he does not suffer a major defeat but his offensives flop, I think he wil continue until 2026 when the economy starts coming apart.
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also seems like my post on Former commander of the Russian army in Syria General Kisel has been taking down by youtube so here is the gist. Looks like he was arrested by the Russians for corruption and incompetency former commander of the Russian 1st Guards tank army in the Feb to March drive on Kharkov which failed badly and he was dismissed for incompetency and now Syria hahah. He will be spending time in the same prison as General Surovikin who is also said to have been arrested for corruption hahahh.
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