Comments by "Brandon M" (@brandonm949) on "Poll Update: A Biden Blowout?" video.

  1. Idk, the polls were pretty good in 2018. You guys are weirdly confident based on one race being predicted incorrectly 4 years ago. And there are a lot of Republicans doing poorly in the polls this year, not just Trump.
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  2. Absolutely. I still prefer Biden and his Republican ghouls to Trump and his Republican ghouls. This election is just damage control.
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  3. How are you factoring in inherent system fallacies of polling methodologies? FiveThirtyEight does a bunch of crazy math to improve on the polls and they have Biden ahead by a large margin.
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  4.  @suryacoapy5129  I've heard that pollsters are including more non-college-educated voters in their polls, since undercounting that group caused a lot of the error in 2016. And I've read that the shy Trump voter factor might be worth 2 or 3 points. But Trump is losing the tipping point states by 4 to 6 points or something like that. And House Republicans are polling a lot worse than in 2016. I won't feel comfortable until the votes come in, because 2020 has a way of being as awful as possible. But I still think Biden is more likely to win than Trump.
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  5.  @doubtingmantis  That's preferable to things fundamentally getting worse.
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  6.  @doubtingmantis  Trump creates more fake news than he calls out. Most of the time, he's just complaining because the media asks him questions he doesn't want to answer.
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  7. Such as?
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  8.  @holden6104  The rally argument ignores the concept of anti-Trump enthusiasm, which is the main driver of Biden votes. As for registration numbers, that doesn't account for Republican Biden voters (or Democratic Trump voters), and it doesn't account for what independent voters are doing. I'll stick with the metric where we just ask people who they're voting for.
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  9.  @holden6104  Because it's been the most informative metric in most presidential elections, as well as the 2018 midterms. Sometimes you get a Dewey/Truman or a Clinton/Trump; that doesn't invalidate polls altogether. I would point to the polls in House and Senate races as proof that this is not 2016. Republicans as a whole are very unpopular this year.
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  10. I checked FiveThirtyEight for Pennsylvania, Florida, Wisconsin, and Michigan - the most likely tipping point states. Biden is outpolling Hillary by 1 to 2 percent in each state.
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  11. Lol, imagine thinking Biden = communism
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  12. December 6th? All states base their electoral votes on the state's popular vote, so we'll know once we see the vote counts.
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  13.  @AARLIE  Why not provide the metrics then? My guess is it's total BS because no one with any statistical credentials would claim an exact number. Sites like FiveThirtyEight are good because their reputation is based on how accurately they predict the election. They gain nothing by pushing a certain narrative.
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  14. Still preferable to semi-fascism
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  15. That's not at all how the electoral college works. If you win the state, you get the votes.
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  16. To add to the reply above me, Republicans won the House popular vote by 1.1% in 2016. I don't know if there were polls for that in 2016, but I did find a FiveThirtyEight article saying that Dems would pick up 5 to 20 seats, and they ended up gaining 6 seats. So I think those polls were accurate. In 2020, Democrats lead the House popular vote polling by 5.9% on FiveThirtyEight. And with Republicans performing poorly in general, I don't see a reason we shouldn't believe that Trump is also performing poorly.
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  17. The Biden vote isn't Biden enthusiasm, it's anti-Trump enthusiasm. And we have better things to do than downvote Trump videos.
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  18. Trump is supremely unlikable. It's all anti-Trump enthusiasm.
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