Comments by "" (@mailtorajrao) on "Meaning of the ICMR corona findings u0026 some surprises from Germany's Heinsburg" video.
-
@PRINT - Consider This 1 in 5 COVID+ person becomes very sick (current fact), and let's also assume that every very sick personal gets admitted to a hospital. Then working from the data in the video,
1. For 100 SARI patients, 2 are COVID+ ...... (102/4946)
2. Every 2 COVID+ in the hospital, there are total 10 infected ..... (1 in 5 data)
3. Every 10 COVID+, there are total 4 in the wild, transmitting communally ..... (38% had no history)
4. Ergo, for every 100 SARI patients, there are total 4 COVID+ in the wild , transmitting communally (this is when ICMR data was collected, the ratios will likely worsen)
How many/Where SARI patients are in India? The answer should yield the rate and location of community spreading... ( of course, the data needs to be contextualized with several factors but clearly SARI patient # is a good proxy to get indicative estimates, minus full scale testing )
1